Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030814a.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices matched Consensus expectations and rose 0.2% in July following a 0.1% June drop. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2%, a bit more than expectations for no change.
Higher prices for capital equipment led the advance in the core PPI. The gain reflected strong increases in the prices of civilian aircraft, office &amp; store machines and transformers &amp; power regulators.
Core finished consumer goods prices were tame, rising 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.1% decline in June. Nondurables prices rose 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) and durables rose 0.2% (0.1% y/y).
Finished energy prices rose a modest 0.3% (14.6% y/y) following the strong 3.4% June gain. Gasoline prices rose 1.6% (16.2% y/y). Fuel oil prices rose 1.9% (18.9% y/y) and residential gas prices fell 0.8% (34.1% y/y). These energy product price series are NSA.
Intermediate goods prices rose 0.2% powered by a 1.3% gain in energy prices. A 44.6% (45.4% y/y) gain in residual fuel prices accounted for this strength. Core intermediate goods prices fell for the third month in the last four. 
Crude goods prices dropped 2.9% as energy prices fell 4.4% (53.9% y/y). Crude petroleum prices were down but crude natural gas prices slid 6.2% pulling them down by almost a third versus the March peak. Core crude prices rose a moderate 0.8%. Iron and steel scrap prices (a very sensitive indicator of activity in the factory sector) rose 3.6% (10.8% y/y) for the first gain in four months.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>24.7%</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed As Exports Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 14, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030814b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $39.5B in June versus Consensus expectations for a deficit of $41.6B. The deficit in May was revised slightly to $41.5B from $41.8B.
The narrower June trade deficit could lead to an upward revision of 2Q GDP growth.
For the first six months of this year, the trade deficit averaged a $488.6B annual rate.
Exports rose strongly for the second consecutive month, up 2.4%, and have risen at an 8.9% annual rate YTD. Exports of capital goods (15.4% YTD, AR) and nonauto consumer goods (20.6% YTD, AR) have been quite strong. Services exports surged 2.7% following a 3.4% gain in May.
Imports were unchanged in June reflecting a 4.4% m/m decline in imports of nonauto consumer goods that was offset by a gain in imports of autos and other goods. Petroleum imports rose 1.5% as the per barrel price of crude petroleum rose 5.8% to $25.50. The daily quantity of crude petroleum imports rose and is up 15.2% y/y.
The cover of the annual edition of International Economic Trends, titled &quot;Border Effects&quot;, from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/aiet/20030701/cover.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$39.5B</td>
<td>$41.5B</td>
<td>$35.6B(6/02)</td>
<td>$418.0B</td>
<td>$357.8B</td>
<td>$375.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>18.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 14, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030814c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 2,000 to 398,000 and the prior week&#39;s level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 395,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 394,250 (+2.6% y/y), the second consecutive and only the second week since late February below 400,000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 6,000 (-0.2%) and the prior week&#39;s sharp increase was revised lower. It was the third decline in the last five weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.9%.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">8/09/03</th>
<th scope="col">8/02/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>398.0</td>
<td>396.0</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>404.3</td>
<td>406.0</td>
<td>299.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,657</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3,575</td>
<td>3,022</td>
<td>2,114</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Finished producer prices matched Consensus expectations and rose 0.2% in July following a 0.1% June drop. Excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2%, a bit more than expectations for no change. Higher prices for capital equipment led [...]

Producer Prices Up As Expected, But Core Prices Firmed

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030813e.jpg" width="353">
Labor markets in the UK improved moderately in the latest data reported Wednesday. Unemployment sustained a 5.0% level for a second month in these data reported as a 3-month centered moving average. This new report shows the averages for April through June and is recorded as a &quot;May&quot; figure; it thus covers the whole of the second quarter. Compared with the first quarter, the unemployment rate is down 0.1%. That for men improved to 5.5% from 5.7% in the first quarter and a high of 5.9% in the third quarter of last year. The rate for women decreased from 4.4% in the first quarter to 4.3%, a record low [these &quot;ILO definition&quot; unemployment data begin in 1992.].. The other side of the coin, employment, also shows modest improvement. It is up 63,000 on the quarter (0.2%) and 224,000 on the year (0.8%). Men fared better than women, however, gaining 85,000 over the first quarter, while women employees decreased by 21,000. The corresponding employment rate (similar to te US concept: the number employed as a ratio to the working age population over age 16) rose to a record high 59.9%. Average earnings, of key concern to policymakers in the UK, slowed to a 3.1% rate of gain in the three months to June, compared to 3.4% in the March period and 3.3% from a year earlier.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">All Data (% Change, Annual Rate)</th>
<th scope="col">&quot;May&quot; &nbsp;(3&nbsp; months ended Jun)</th>
<th scope="col">&quot;Feb&quot; &nbsp;(3 months ended Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment Rate</td>
<td>59.9</td>
<td>59.8</td>
<td>59.7</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>59.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Hourly Earnings (Annual % Change)</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.6</td>
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Labor markets in the UK improved moderately in the latest data reported Wednesday. Unemployment sustained a 5.0% level for a second month in these data reported as a 3-month centered moving average. This new report shows the averages [...]

Record High Employment Rate in UK; Wages Moderate

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030812b.jpg" width="353">
The Japanese economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter, the sixth quarter of growth and well above the consensus estimate of 0.2%. First quarter growth was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%. All major sectors except for government consumption, showed increases. Private consumption increased by 0.3%. Gross capital formation increased by 1% in the second quarter, marking its fifth consecutive rise. With exports up 1% and import down by 1%, the foreign trade sector made a significant contribution to growth.. Deflation, however, continues as can be seen in the attached chart that compares nominal and real GDP. Progress has been slow on Prime Minister Koizumi&#39;s attempt to dispose of the 44.5 trillion yen ($370 billion) of bad loans at Japan&#39;s banks and until this problem is resolved there is no assurance of a substantial and sustained recovery in Japan.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">Q2/03</th>
<th scope="col">Q1/03</th>
<th scope="col">Q2/02</th>
<th scope="col">Q/Q % Chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y % Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP (Trillion Current Yen SAAR)</td>
<td>498.0</td>
<td>497.3</td>
<td>500.3</td>
<td>0.15</td>
<td>-0.44</td>
<td>500.0</td>
<td>506.3</td>
<td>510.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">GDP (Trillion 1995 Yen)</td>
<td>547.9</td>
<td>544.8</td>
<td>536.7</td>
<td>0.57</td>
<td>2.09</td>
<td>537.5</td>
<td>535.3</td>
<td>531.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Private Consumption</td>
<td>301.2</td>
<td>300.3</td>
<td>297.4</td>
<td>0.31</td>
<td>1.29</td>
<td>298.2</td>
<td>293.9</td>
<td>287.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Government Consumption</td>
<td>91.1</td>
<td>91.4</td>
<td>90.7</td>
<td>-0.40</td>
<td>0.43</td>
<td>90.9</td>
<td>88.8</td>
<td>86.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Gross Capital Formation</td>
<td>139.4</td>
<td>138.0</td>
<td>134.4</td>
<td>1.02</td>
<td>3.74</td>
<td>134.9</td>
<td>142.7</td>
<td>143.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>64.6</td>
<td>64.0</td>
<td>60.9</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>6.08</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>56.1</td>
<td>59.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>-48.4</td>
<td>-49.0</td>
<td>-46.7</td>
<td>-1.10</td>
<td>3.78</td>
<td>-47.1</td>
<td>-46.2</td>
<td>-46.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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The Japanese economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter, the sixth quarter of growth and well above the consensus estimate of 0.2%. First quarter growth was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.3%. All major sectors except for government [...]

Japan's Growth Exceeds Expectations, but Deflation Still a Problem

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030812a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales ticked 0.1% higher last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The mailing of tax-rebate checks, state tax holidays and the beginning of the back-to-school shopping season likely encouraged sales.
The small advance in the first full week of August pulled the level of sales so far this month 1.1% above the July average. July sales rose 1.4% from June.
During the last five years there has been a 62% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed from the sales results reported by seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">8/9/03</th>
<th scope="col">8/2/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>428.3</td>
<td>427.7</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Fed Funds Rate Left Unchanged by FOMC 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 12, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030812c.jpg" width="353">
The Federal Reserve left the target rate for federal funds unchanged at 1.00%. The discount rate also was left unchanged at 2.00%.
The unanimous action was as expected by economists.
The press release which accompanied the Fed&#146;s action contained the following statement. &quot;The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period shows that spending is firming, although labor market indicators are mixed. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted.&quot;
With regard to the risks to the economic outlook, the Fed stated that &quot;the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future.&quot;
<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20030812/default.htm">Here</a> is the complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release.
Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis titled &quot;Alternative Policy Weapons?&quot; can be found in this <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20030801/cover.pdf">link</a>.

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Chain store sales ticked 0.1% higher last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The mailing of tax-rebate checks, state tax holidays and the beginning of the back-to-school shopping season likely encouraged sales. The small advance [...]

Chain Store Sales Tick Higher

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030811b.jpg" width="353">
Since late 2002, the prices manufacturers in the UK pay for the raw materials of their products have generally been rising faster than the prices they receive for their finished products. In July, the year to year increase in input prices was 2.79% while the increase in output prices was 1.38%.. Although labor is, in general, much the largest cost of production and is not included in the input index, the relationship between prices of final goods and the prices of raw material prices is often a good indicator of profit trends. In the UK, corporate profits are defined as the gross operating surplus of corporations in the national accounts. According to this measure, profits in the first quarter of this year have decelerated to 7.4% from an increase of 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2002. The trend in output and input prices since then, suggests a further squeeze on profits in the UK.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> </th>
<th scope="col">July 2003</th>
<th scope="col">June 2003</th>
<th scope="col">July 2002</th>
<th scope="col">M/M</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">1995=100</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>%</td>
<td>%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Input Prices</td>
<td>92.0&nbsp;</td>
<td>91.2</td>
<td>89.5</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>2.79</td>
<td>90.0</td>
<td>93.0</td>
<td>93.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Output Prices</td>
<td>110.2</td>
<td>110.0</td>
<td>108.7</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>1.38</td>
<td>408.5</td>
<td>408.2</td>
<td>108.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y % Change</td>
<td>Q1 03</td>
<td>Q4 02</td>
<td>Q3 02</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations</td>
<td>7.41</td>
<td>9.92</td>
<td>8.82</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>8.36</td>
<td>0.77</td>
<td>4.98</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Since late 2002, the prices manufacturers in the UK pay for the raw materials of their products have generally been rising faster than the prices they receive for their finished products. In July, the year to year increase in input [...]

Price Trends in UK Manufacturing Industry Point to Further Profit Squeeze

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030811a.jpg" width="353">
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in June for the third consecutive month. The 0.9% gain followed an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in May.
Gains amongst the member country leading indexes perhaps began to broaden out. The leading index for the Euro-zone 12 rose 0.3% following a 0.4% May gain. The leaders in Germany rose 0.5% following a 0.3% uptick in May. In France the leaders managed their third consecutive monthly gain. The leaders in Italy, however, faltered and fell for the second month this year.
The leading index for the Euro-zone 12 was up 0.6% YTD in June. In the U.K. the leaders rose strongly for the third consecutive month.
Leaders for Japan jumped 1.0% in June and a previously reported May decline was revised to +0.6%. Higher share prices led the gains. In Canada the June leading indicators rose 0.5% for the third consecutive gain but the previously reported 2.0% jump in May was revised down to 0.4%.
Improved leading indicators in the United States continued to dominate the upward move in the OECD aggregate. In June the US leaders rose 1.3% for the third consecutive strong monthly gain.
For more from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), visit its <a href="http://www.oecd.org/home/">website</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD Main Economic Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored)</td>
<td>120.4</td>
<td>119.3</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; European Union</td>
<td>117.6</td>
<td>117.1</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Japan</td>
<td>102.6</td>
<td>101.5</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; United States</td>
<td>132.6</td>
<td>130.9</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in June for the third consecutive month. The 0.9% gain followed an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in May. Gains amongst the member country leading indexes perhaps began to broaden out. The [...]

OECD Leaders Up Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030808b.jpg" width="353">
Unemployment in Canada remained stubbornly high in July, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8% from 7.7% in June. Forecasters had expected the rate to hold steady at the June level. The number unemployed in July increased 13.2 thousand, almost exactly mirroring a 13.3 thousand decrease in the number employed. The job loss occurred among youth (ages 15-24), while employment among adult workers increased slightly. Employment of young people has in fact declined in three of the four months since March, which was its peak. Adults have fared better, tacking 1.6 thousand in July onto a strong 45.2 thousand increase the month before.
Over longer periods, the chart on the left illustrates the close correlation of Canadian labor markets with US business cycles. In the last four US recessions, employment in Canada has weakened markedly while the unemployment rate has risen. Indeed, in the 1981-82 and 1990-91 experiences, the rate in Canada rose more steeply than that in the US. However, most recently, since the latest US recovery began in November 2001, employment in Canada has been much stronger than that in the US, growing 4.1% compared with just a 0.9% rise in the US (data for both countries based on labor force definitions of &quot;employment&quot;.)

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> </th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;July 2003</th>
<th scope="col">June 2003</th>
<th scope="col">Year/Year</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Dec/Dec % Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Change in Total Employment (Thous)</td>
<td>-13.3</td>
<td>+48.8</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Annual Average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>7.6% (July 2002)</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Unemployment in Canada remained stubbornly high in July, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8% from 7.7% in June. Forecasters had expected the rate to hold steady at the June level. The number unemployed in July increased 13.2 [...]

Canadian Labor Markets Soften in July as Teenagers Lack Summer Jobs

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

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Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications fell 1.9% w/w (+73.6% y/y) in the week ending October 31 following a 7.1% gain in the week ending October 24, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the fifth w/w fall in six weeks to the index level of 332.3. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 0.6% (+24.8% y/y) in the October 31 week, down for the fifth week in six, after a 4.5% increase in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 2.8% (+151.4% y/y) in the October 31 week, down for the first week in three, following a 9.3% advance in the October 24 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up to 6.48% in the week ending October 31 after declining to 6.47% in the week ending October 24; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages slipped to 5.81% in the October 31 week, the lowest since the September 12 week, after decreasing to 5.82% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans rose 4bps to a three-week-high 6.52% in the October 31 week after declining to 6.48% in the prior week; however, it was slightly down from a low of 6.57% in the week of September 13, 2024 and below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 4bps to 5.88% in the October 31 week, the highest since September 26 week, after rising to 5.84% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the week of September 13, 2024 but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged down to 57.0% of total applications in the week ending October 31 after rising to a five-week-high 57.1% in the week ending October 24; those numbers remained below a peak of 60.2% in the week of September 19. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity fell to 8.7% in the October 31 week, the lowest reading since the September 26 week, after falling to 8.9% in the prior week; it was below its recent peak of 12.9% in the September 12 week and a high of 9.6% in the April 11 week but up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the third week in four, increased 0.6% w/w (7.3% y/y) to $414,900 in the October 31 week, the highest level since the September 19 week, reversing a 0.6% drop to $412,300 in the October 24 week. The average size of a purchase loan fell 0.4% (-2.3% y/y) to $435,100 in the October 31 week on top of a 0.5% decline to $436,800 in the prior week, marking the fourth weekly fall in five weeks and the lowest level since the October 10 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 1.5% (34.0% y/y) to $399,700 in the October 31 week after a 0.4% decline to $393,900 in the previous week, registering the third weekly rise in four weeks and the highest level since the September 19 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications -0.6% w/w; refinancing loan applications -2.8% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans ticks up to 6.48% despite ongoing downward trend.
- Average loan size rebounds to the highest level since the September 19 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Drop 1.9% in the October 31 Week After Previous Gain

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.15 per gallon (-1.3% y/y), on average, in the week ended November 3 after rising to $3.16 in the previous week. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. Haver Analytics seasonally adjusts the retail prices of regular grade gasoline. That price held at $3.05 last week versus $3.05 in the previous week.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $60.70 per barrel (-11.2% y/y) in the week ended October 31 after improving to $59.43 per barrel in the prior week. It was the highest price in three weeks but prices remained below a recent high of $74.17 during the third week of June. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $61.05 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude increased to $65.02 per barrel (-10.5% y/y) in the week of October 31 after rising to $63.22 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $65.79 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose to an average $3.43/mmbtu (88.5% y/y) in the week ended October 31 after rising to $3.25/mmbtu in the prior week. The rise left prices at the highest level since the second week of April and well above the low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Yesterday, the price was $3.37 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 4.2% y/y in the four weeks ending October 24, following a 3.6% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending October 24, after slipping 0.1% y/y in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries declined 1.7% y/y in the four weeks ending October 24, after a 0.3% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories ease 0.1% y/y in the week ending October 24 following a 1.5% y/y gain in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 10.0% y/y in the October 24 week after falling 13.0% y/y in the prior week. Working higher, crude oil inventories rose 1.7% y/y in the week of October 24 after rising 2.6% y/y in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 24.3 days in the week of October 24. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil held steady at 26.7 days in the week of October 24. The supply remained below a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices are minimally changed.
- Crude oil costs rise further.
- Natural gas prices strengthen.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

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U.S. light vehicle sales dove 6.9% (-4.5% y/y) in October to 15.48 million units (SAAR) after holding steady at 16.62 million units in September. Sales fell broadly. 

Light truck sales slid 6.9% (-1.4% y/y) in October to 12.90 million units, after rising 0.9% in September. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks fell 7.9% (+1.4% y/y) to 10.10 million units, the lowest level since February, after rising 3.4% in September. Sales of imported light trucks fell 2.8% (-10.3% y/y) to 2.80 million units, following a 7.4% September decline.

Trucks’ 83.3% share of the light vehicle market last month was steady with September and compared to 82.6% in August, and to 80.7% in October of last year. The share has averaged 82.4% so far this year versus 56.5% ten years earlier.

Passenger car sales declined 6.9% (-17.6% y/y) last month to 2.58 million, after falling 4.8% in September. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 7.2% (-16.5% y/y) last month to 1.93 million units, after weakening 7.1% in September. Imported auto sales declined 4.5% (-22.0% y/y) to 0.64 million units after holding steady in September.

Imports' 22.2% share of the U.S. light vehicle market rose from 21.4% in September. These compared to a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market edged up to 24.8% last month from 24.2% in September. It reached a high of 38.1% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market increased to 21.7% last month from 20.8% in September.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales and auto purchases decline m/m.
- Total sales decline sharply y/y.
- Imports' market share declines.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in October

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Factory sector activity remains under pressure. The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7 in October after rising to 49.1 during September from 48.7 in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management. These figures are below the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line. As a result, they continue to indicate that the U.S. manufacturing sector weakened for the eighth consecutive month. The reading remained remain above, however, a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A November index of 49.4 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The production component declined to 48.2 last month after rising to 51.0 in September. It remained increased from an April low of 44.0. A lessened 27.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 22.0% reported lower output levels. The inventory reading fell to a 12-month low of 45.8 from 47.7 in September. A lessened 13.2% (NSA) of respondents raised inventories while a higher 21.7% shed them.

Working higher, the new orders index rose to 49.4 during October from 48.9 in September. An increased 20.4% (NSA) of respondents reported new orders improvement while 26.0% reported a decline. The employment index increased to a five-month high of 46.0 last month after rising to 45.3 in September. An increased 13.1% (NSA) of respondents more hiring while 22.3% reported less. The supplier delivery index rose to 54.2 in October from 52.6 in September. Twelve percent (NSA) of respondents reported slower product delivery speeds while 3.2% reported a quickening.

The prices index weakened to 58.0 (NSA) during October from 61.9 in September. It was below a high of 69.8 in April, and well above its low of 39.4 in December 2022. A lessened 27.3% of respondents reported higher prices, a nine month low, while an increased 8.7% reported lower.

In other series, the export orders index rose to a seasonally adjusted 44.5 in October after falling sharply to 43.0 in September. It remained up from 40.1 May low. The imports index edged up to 45.2 last month from 44.7 in September. The index is below a high of 52.6 in February.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Decline reverses all of September increase.					
- Lower production offsets new orders rise.
- Price index falls to nine-month low.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Eases in October; Price Index Declines Sharply

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we review a wave of key developments across Asia following US President Trump’s tour of the region last week. A central theme concerned countries courting closer ties with the US to avoid harsher actions, while also boosting regional cooperation amid trade barriers and scrutiny of China. This push for closer ties has manifested through new and updated trade agreements—ironically driven by ongoing uncertainty in global trade and supply chains, with US–China relations at the core. A major outcome of Trump’s trip was the new US–China trade agreement, which included the US halving tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-related products to 10%, while China suspended rare earth export controls and resumed soybean purchases vital to the US (chart 1). Perhaps more importantly, the deal signalled a small conciliatory shift and avoided a potentially worse outcome. Beyond the US–China agreement at the APEC Summit in South Korea, the US–South Korea trade deal also gained more clarity. Under the deal, US auto tariffs on South Korea has fallen to 15%, matching the rate applied to Japan and likely providing relief for South Korean automakers (chart 2).

Trump’s visit to Japan was another highlight. Relations with new Prime Minister Takaichi got off to a strong start, and further details emerged on Japan’s previously cited $550 billion investment commitment in the US—substantial even relative to Japan’s existing direct investment there (chart 3). However, specifics on the timing and implementation of the investment remain limited. Meanwhile, at the ASEAN Summit earlier in the week, aside from Trump’s engagements, the bloc officially welcomed its 11th member—Timor-Leste—the first new member in decades—granting it access to the bloc’s mechanisms and potentially supporting a catch-up in economic development (chart 5). Looking ahead, the focus on China and Japan is likely to continue, with China set to release its October trade (chart 6) and CPI data, and Japan scheduled to report employee wages and household spending.

**The APEC summit**
The US and China made a modest but meaningful step forward on trade following the Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC Summit in South Korea. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-related products to 10% from 20% and suspended enforcement of rules targeting subsidiaries of blacklisted firms—previous points of contention for Beijing. In return, China pledged stronger efforts to curb fentanyl flows, paused rare earth export controls for a year, and resumed purchases of US soybeans—significant given its historically large share of US export demand (chart 1). While not a comprehensive reset, these moves eased immediate tensions and helped avert more severe outcomes, including Trump’s previously threatened 100% tariff hike. The tone of the meeting also suggests a more conciliatory shift, though relations remain fragile and the risk of renewed escalation is still material.

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Beyond the headline-grabbing US–China trade deal, the APEC Summit in South Korea also saw the US reach a trade agreement with South Korea. Under the deal, US tariffs on South Korean autos and auto parts have fallen to 15% from 25%, matching the US tariff rate on Japanese autos and providing relief to South Korea’s sizable automotive export sector (chart 2). The agreement also clarified South Korea’s supposed $350 billion investment in the US: $200 billion in cash, capped at $20 billion per year to avoid currency market distortions, with the remaining $150 billion directed toward shipbuilding cooperation. While also not a major breakthrough, the deal represents incremental progress, addressing prior uncertainties and signalling steps toward a more favourable trade framework.

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**US President Trump’s Japan Visit**
Turning to US President Trump’s visit to Japan last week, new Prime Minister Takaichi appears to have gotten off to a strong start, with Trump hailing US–Japan relations as entering a “NEW GOLDEN AGE.” The two countries signed several agreements, including a Technology Prosperity Deal, and deepened cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths. Japan’s previously vague $550 billion investment commitment in the US is now somewhat clearer: up to $332 billion will support critical US infrastructure, $30 billion will target AI, and $15 billion will go toward electronics and supply chains, among other areas. While the headline figure is substantial—even relative to Japan’s already significant direct investment assets in the US (chart 3)—the open-ended nature of the commitment and the lack of a clear timeline leave its actual impact uncertain.

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**The ASEAN summits**
Whilst US President Trump’s attendance at the ASEAN–US Summit in Malaysia dominated headlines, there were also several other notable developments at last week’s ASEAN meetings in Kuala Lumpur. Most prominently, Timor-Leste was officially admitted as ASEAN’s eleventh member, following a two-decade accession process during which the country actively aligned its political and economic frameworks with ASEAN standards. Membership grants Timor-Leste access to the bloc’s broader security and economic mechanisms and could open further avenues for trade, investment, and development cooperation. Nonetheless, the country still has considerable ground to make up relative to its new ASEAN peers, particularly in terms of both GDP and GDP per capita (chart 4).

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The accession of Timor-Leste into ASEAN aside, last week’s summits also brought a number of economic developments for the bloc. More concretely, ASEAN and China signed an upgrade to their free trade agreement last week, bringing the deal to so-called version 3.0. The upgraded deal (ACFTA 3.0) introduces commitments in new areas such as Digital Economy, Green Economy, and Supply Chain Connectivity, among other themes. And notably, just as the US and ASEAN have found common ground to collaborate in fields such as those relating to rare earths, given how the US has seen vulnerabilities arising from this space given China’s dominance in the field, China has taken the year’s US-China frictions to foster closer ties with its neighbours in the region, including the collectively sizable ASEAN bloc. Just by the trade dimension alone, China-ASEAN-11 trade has growth significantly this year (chart 2), although the economies’ total trade with the US also rose, and at a more significant pace, despite tariff measures.

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Looking ahead, investors will focus on a series of China-related releases this week, notably the Caixin PMI readings, as well as October trade and CPI inflation data. These indicators will help gauge the economy’s performance under ongoing US tariffs and assess domestic demand and supply conditions, all in the broader context of recent US–China interactions during Trump’s Asia tour. In Japan, attention will turn to updated data on employee wages and household spending, which—together with developments in the external environment—will shape expectations for the Bank of Japan’s future policy stance. Elsewhere in the region, investors will watch interest rate decisions from Australia and Malaysia, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, as well as GDP readings from Indonesia and the Philippines.

Economy in Brief: 2003

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Producer Prices Up As Expected, But Core Prices Firmed

Producer Prices Up As Expected, But Core Prices Firmed

Record High Employment Rate in UK; Wages Moderate

Japan's Growth Exceeds Expectations, but Deflation Still a Problem

Chain Store Sales Tick Higher

Price Trends in UK Manufacturing Industry Point to Further Profit Squeeze

OECD Leaders Up Again

Canadian Labor Markets Soften in July as Teenagers Lack Summer Jobs