Global| Aug 08 2003Canadian Labor Markets Soften in July as Teenagers Lack Summer Jobs
Summary
Unemployment in Canada remained stubbornly high in July, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8% from 7.7% in June. Forecasters had expected the rate to hold steady at the June level. The number unemployed in July increased 13.2 [...]
Unemployment in Canada remained stubbornly high in July, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8% from 7.7% in June. Forecasters had expected the rate to hold steady at the June level. The number unemployed in July increased 13.2 thousand, almost exactly mirroring a 13.3 thousand decrease in the number employed. The job loss occurred among youth (ages 15-24), while employment among adult workers increased slightly. Employment of young people has in fact declined in three of the four months since March, which was its peak. Adults have fared better, tacking 1.6 thousand in July onto a strong 45.2 thousand increase the month before.
Over longer periods, the chart on the left illustrates the close correlation of Canadian labor markets with US business cycles. In the last four US recessions, employment in Canada has weakened markedly while the unemployment rate has risen. Indeed, in the 1981-82 and 1990-91 experiences, the rate in Canada rose more steeply than that in the US. However, most recently, since the latest US recovery began in November 2001, employment in Canada has been much stronger than that in the US, growing 4.1% compared with just a 0.9% rise in the US (data for both countries based on labor force definitions of "employment".)
| July 2003 | June 2003 | Year/Year | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec/Dec % Change | ||||||
| Change in Total Employment (Thous) | -13.3 | +48.8 | 1.9% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| Annual Average | ||||||
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% (July 2002) | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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