Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two months.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914d.jpg" width="353">
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 314,250 (-8.8% y/y), the lowest level in one month.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 following a downwardly revised 4,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich Addresses Terrorist Threats from the American Enterprise Institute can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24895,filter.all/pub_detail.asp"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">9/02/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>308</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,499</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914b.jpg" width="353">
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline.
Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in July.Behind the modest m/m gain was a 6.5% decline in unit vehicle sales to 16.06M, the lowest sales rate this year.
Excluding autos, retail sales also rose just 0.2% after a downwardly revised 0.6% July increase. Consensus expectations had been for nonauto retail sales to rise 0.3% last month.
Sales at gasoline stations also fell a hard 1.0% (+11.0% y/y) as gasoline prices fell during August 1.0% m/m to an average $2.95 per gallon. Gasoline prices have since fallen further to $2.62 per gallon last week.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914a.jpg" width="353">
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.5% August increase.
Sales of discretionary items were moderate last month. Furniture, electronics &amp; appliances slipped 0.1% (+5.9% y/y) after July gain of 0.3% that was revised down from 1.2% reported initially. General merchandise stores rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y), better than the little-revised 0.2% July increase but apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+6.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales increased 0.1% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.3% July gain that was revised down from 1.9% in the initial report.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pages/digging.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline. Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914b.jpg" width="353">
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline.
Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in July.Behind the modest m/m gain was a 6.5% decline in unit vehicle sales to 16.06M, the lowest sales rate this year.
Excluding autos, retail sales also rose just 0.2% after a downwardly revised 0.6% July increase. Consensus expectations had been for nonauto retail sales to rise 0.3% last month.
Sales at gasoline stations also fell a hard 1.0% (+11.0% y/y) as gasoline prices fell during August 1.0% m/m to an average $2.95 per gallon. Gasoline prices have since fallen further to $2.62 per gallon last week.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914a.jpg" width="353">
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.5% August increase.
Sales of discretionary items were moderate last month. Furniture, electronics &amp; appliances slipped 0.1% (+5.9% y/y) after July gain of 0.3% that was revised down from 1.2% reported initially. General merchandise stores rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y), better than the little-revised 0.2% July increase but apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+6.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales increased 0.1% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.3% July gain that was revised down from 1.9% in the initial report.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pages/digging.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two months.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914d.jpg" width="353">
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 314,250 (-8.8% y/y), the lowest level in one month.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 following a downwardly revised 4,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich Addresses Terrorist Threats from the American Enterprise Institute can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24895,filter.all/pub_detail.asp"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">9/02/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>308</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,499</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Budget Deficit Deteriorated As Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914e.jpg" width="353">
The August U.S. federal government budget deficit of $64.6B was double the July shortfall and deeper than August of last year. The figure compared favorably, however, to Consensus expectations for a $67.0B deficit, elevated due to calendar quirks.
The August shortfall pulled the eleven month fiscal year 2006 deficit to $304.3B, improved versus a deficit of $354.1B for the first eleven months of FY 2005.
The FY&#39;06 budget deficit estimate of $295.8B offered last month by the Office of Management &amp; Budget in its Mid-Session Review looks conservative. During the last several years the Gov&#39;t has run a surplus between $25B and $65B during September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914f.jpg" width="353">
Net revenues grew 11.7% versus the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) grew 12.4% as withheld taxes rose 7.9%, due to growth in employment, and non-withheld taxes surged 20.8%. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) surged 29.0% as corporate profits grew. Estate &amp; gift taxes increased by 14.2% while social insurance &amp; retirement receipts grew 5.7%.
U.S. net outlays grew 7.6% compared with the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) grew 6.0%. Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) advanced 13.7% and social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 4.7%. Higher interest rates boosted the government&#39;s interest expense by 22.2% y/y to $212.9B so far this fiscal year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E106021.HTM">US Government Finance</a> &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2005</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>-$64.6B</td>
<td>-$33.2B</td>
<td>-$51.3B (8/05)</td>
<td>-$318.3B</td>
<td>-$412.7B</td>
<td>-$377.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Revenues</td>
<td>$153.9B</td>
<td>$159.8B</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Outlays</td>
<td>$218.5B</td>
<td>$213.0B</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Import Prices Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914k.jpg" width="353">
Total import prices rose 0.8% last month following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase during July. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% increase.
Less petroleum, import prices rose a firm 0.5%, the largest increase since May. Prices for nonoil industrial supplies &amp; materials more than recouped a July decline with a 1.8% (11.4% y/y) surge led by higher prices for paper (7.9% y/y), chemicals (3.4% y/y) and metals (38.6% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914j.jpg" width="353">
Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) for the second month and rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) excluding computers. Prices for nonauto consumer goods were unchanged (0.7% y/y) though prices for home entertainment equipment fell (-4.5% y/y). 
Prices of petroleum imports jumped 2.3% after the 5.1% spike during July. Brent crude oil prices were about unchanged at $73.40 per barrel in August but have since fallen to $62.48.
Export prices rose 0.4% for the second consecutive month led by a 1.0% increase agricultural (3.5% y/y) and a 0.4% (5.3% y/y) rise in nonagricultural commodities.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>24.3%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export- All Commodities</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914l.jpg" width="353">
In July, total business inventories rose 0.6% following an upwardly revised 0.9% June gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% increase. That combination left the inventory to sales ratio stable m/m at 1.26, up from its low in May of 1.25. 
Retail inventories rose 0.4% led by a 0.5% (15.3% y/y) surge in motor vehicles &amp; parts. Excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y). Furniture inventories moved up 4.9% y/y, while building materials inventories grew 8.7%. Clothing store inventories rose 5.5% y/y but inventories of general merchandise grew just 1.2%.
Wholesale inventories increased another 0.8% (8.8% Y/Y) in July led by a 1.2% (25.0% y/y) gain in petroleum inventories. Durables rose 9.2% y/y. 
Factory inventories rose 0.6% (5.7% y/y), the fastest y/y rate of accumulation in a year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Labor Force and Employment Gains Strong in Australia; Unemployment Hovers Near Record Low 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914g.jpg" width="353">
Employment in Australia rose 23,400 in August from July and has increased every month for the last ten. The year-on-year growth is just 2%, but the 10-month advance has occurred at a 3.2% annualized pace, similar to the 2005 performance.
This employment growth is strong enough to absorb sizable increases in labor force participation and still set record low unemployment rates. Unemployment stood at 4.9% of the labor force in August after touching 4.8% in July; until last August, it had never been as low as 5.0%. The rise in the participation rate includes an upturn among male workers since August 2004 after a secular decline that extends back almost continuously to the beginning of the data series in 1978. The participation rate for women continues to trend gradually higher.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914h.jpg" width="353">
These broad labor force aggregates for Australia were published a week ago. Today, September 14, the Australian Bureau of Statistics published greater detail, including &quot;quarterly&quot; industry data. These industry data depart from the common use of the term quarterly; they are not averages or totals but figures that are simply collected only once a quarter, in the mid-month. Thus are &quot;third quarter&quot; readings already available before the actual end of the period. And in our table below, we show the whole array of data with their mid-month of quarter values to facilitate comparison.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914i.jpg" width="353">
As in many &quot;industrial&quot; countries, Australia&#39;s manufacturing sector employment is lagging. However, the latest value, 1,054 persons, is ahead of the year-ago level by 13,000, marking the first year-on-year increase in six quarters. The mining sector seems small with only 139,000 employed in August, but it has been a source of growth particularly in metal ores. We mentioned this general characteristic of the Australian economy a couple of weeks ago (September 1) regarding movements in commodity prices there. Construction is growing vigorously, along with several service industries, especially property &amp; business services and health &amp; community services. Not shown in our table is a spurt in government employment, up 35,700 in the latest quarter, but this reflects temporary hiring for the 2006 Australian census. It will be important to check on Australian labor market conditions after the census has been taken and those temporary employees finish their assignments. ABS suggests that they have not inflated employment totals because many have other jobs already. Stay tuned to see how that plays out.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A106/@A106.HTM">Australia Labor Force*</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2006 (Aug)</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2006 (May)</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2005 (Aug)</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Employment (000s)</td>
<td>10,265</td>
<td>10,143</td>
<td>10,067</td>
<td>9,987</td>
<td>9,677</td>
<td>9,481</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment (000s)</td>
<td>524</td>
<td>523</td>
<td>532</td>
<td>537</td>
<td>567</td>
<td>611</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%)</td>
<td>65.1</td>
<td>64.5</td>
<td>64.8</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>63.6</td>
<td>63.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Select Industries (000s)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mining</td>
<td>139</td>
<td>133</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>90</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>1,054</td>
<td>1,060</td>
<td>1,041</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>1,082</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>899</td>
<td>888</td>
<td>870</td>
<td>867</td>
<td>802</td>
<td>755</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Property &amp; Business Services</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,196</td>
<td>1,197</td>
<td>1,171</td>
<td>1,108</td>
<td>1,112</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Health &amp; Community Services</td>
<td>1,072</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>1,023</td>
<td>1,013</td>
<td>981</td>
<td>932</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913c.jpg" width="353">
Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called &quot;claimant count&quot; would see a &quot;welcome&quot; fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported officially this morning, the number of people claiming the Jobseeker&#39;s Allowance eased to 950,100 in August from 954,000 in July and 955,000 in June. These compare to 869,300 in August 2005 and a monthly average of 861,000 for all of last year. While the monthly figure did decline then, the most that can really be said about the data is that it didn&#39;t worsen.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913d.jpg" width="353">
The UK&#39;s broader unemployment rate, following the widely used ILO definition, also indicated stabilization, but not improvement. It remained at 5.5% in the June reporting period, the three months centered on June, the same as in the May period. These compare with 4.7% a year ago. The number of people employed rose in the June period by 37,000 following a 39,000 gain in May. April&#39;s reading was down 38,000, so the three periods together leave employment in a very gentle uptrend, 0.8% higher than a year ago.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913e.jpg" width="353">
Markets focused on the lower claimant count, and they also noticed the rise in wages. The July reading on the average earnings index picked up to a 4.4% advance over a year ago, after June&#39;s 4.3% and May&#39;s 4.1%. Even so, the latest figure remains just below the Bank of England&#39;s threshold for inflation concern that sets in at 4.5%, suggesting that any monetary policy change won&#39;t come immediately, though some see a rate hike late this year. [The &quot;AEI&quot; is the index of average hourly earnings over the last three months relative to the same period a year ago. While the employment reading is generally taken on the middle month of a three-month moving average, the AEI highlights the ending month. So this is the &quot;July&quot; AEI, and the &quot;June&quot; employment and unemployment data, but they actually cover the same period: May, June and July.]

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U7/@U7.HTM">UK Labor Force Survey &amp; Related Labor Data</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">July 2006</th>
<th scope="col">June 2006</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, Thous)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>28,975</td>
<td>28,938</td>
<td>28,755</td>
<td>28,743</td>
<td>28,465</td>
<td>28,183</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chg from 1 &amp; 3 Months Ago</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>37/38</td>
<td>39/42</td>
<td>+18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (MoAvg)</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, %)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count &nbsp; (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>950.1</td>
<td>954.0</td>
<td>955.0</td>
<td>950.7</td>
<td>869.3</td>
<td>861.8</td>
<td>853.5</td>
<td>933.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vacancies (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>600.4</td>
<td>617.0</td>
<td>604.2</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>609.6</td>
<td>619.0</td>
<td>631.9</td>
<td>582.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Earnings Index inc Bonus (Headline Rate*)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called "claimant count" would see a "welcome" fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported [...]

UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913b.jpg" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week&#39;s 3.7% rise and lifted applications in September 4.4% above the August average which fell 3.5% from July.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Overall mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week after the prior period&#39;s 1.8% increase.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following the prior week&#39;s 0.9% decline. The average level of refis in September is up 1.0% from August which surged 13.3% m/m from July.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913a.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was stable w/w at 6.53%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also was stable w/w at 6.25% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Can Housing Be Green and Affordable? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=7E448AB7-5056-9F12-1273CD2B2C3B6231&amp;method=display_body"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/08/06</th>
<th scope="col">09/01/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>566.3</td>
<td>-23.2%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>410.2</td>
<td>389.7</td>
<td>-20.1%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,597.0</td>
<td>1,594.7</td>
<td>-27.4%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week's [...]

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913b.jpg" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week&#39;s 3.7% rise and lifted applications in September 4.4% above the August average which fell 3.5% from July.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Overall mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week after the prior period&#39;s 1.8% increase.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following the prior week&#39;s 0.9% decline. The average level of refis in September is up 1.0% from August which surged 13.3% m/m from July.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913a.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was stable w/w at 6.53%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also was stable w/w at 6.25% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Can Housing Be Green and Affordable? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=7E448AB7-5056-9F12-1273CD2B2C3B6231&amp;method=display_body"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/08/06</th>
<th scope="col">09/01/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>566.3</td>
<td>-23.2%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>410.2</td>
<td>389.7</td>
<td>-20.1%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,597.0</td>
<td>1,594.7</td>
<td>-27.4%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 13, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913c.jpg" width="353">
Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called &quot;claimant count&quot; would see a &quot;welcome&quot; fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported officially this morning, the number of people claiming the Jobseeker&#39;s Allowance eased to 950,100 in August from 954,000 in July and 955,000 in June. These compare to 869,300 in August 2005 and a monthly average of 861,000 for all of last year. While the monthly figure did decline then, the most that can really be said about the data is that it didn&#39;t worsen.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913d.jpg" width="353">
The UK&#39;s broader unemployment rate, following the widely used ILO definition, also indicated stabilization, but not improvement. It remained at 5.5% in the June reporting period, the three months centered on June, the same as in the May period. These compare with 4.7% a year ago. The number of people employed rose in the June period by 37,000 following a 39,000 gain in May. April&#39;s reading was down 38,000, so the three periods together leave employment in a very gentle uptrend, 0.8% higher than a year ago.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913e.jpg" width="353">
Markets focused on the lower claimant count, and they also noticed the rise in wages. The July reading on the average earnings index picked up to a 4.4% advance over a year ago, after June&#39;s 4.3% and May&#39;s 4.1%. Even so, the latest figure remains just below the Bank of England&#39;s threshold for inflation concern that sets in at 4.5%, suggesting that any monetary policy change won&#39;t come immediately, though some see a rate hike late this year. [The &quot;AEI&quot; is the index of average hourly earnings over the last three months relative to the same period a year ago. While the employment reading is generally taken on the middle month of a three-month moving average, the AEI highlights the ending month. So this is the &quot;July&quot; AEI, and the &quot;June&quot; employment and unemployment data, but they actually cover the same period: May, June and July.]

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U7/@U7.HTM">UK Labor Force Survey &amp; Related Labor Data</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">July 2006</th>
<th scope="col">June 2006</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, Thous)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>28,975</td>
<td>28,938</td>
<td>28,755</td>
<td>28,743</td>
<td>28,465</td>
<td>28,183</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chg from 1 &amp; 3 Months Ago</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>37/38</td>
<td>39/42</td>
<td>+18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (MoAvg)</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, %)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count &nbsp; (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>950.1</td>
<td>954.0</td>
<td>955.0</td>
<td>950.7</td>
<td>869.3</td>
<td>861.8</td>
<td>853.5</td>
<td>933.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vacancies (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>600.4</td>
<td>617.0</td>
<td>604.2</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>609.6</td>
<td>619.0</td>
<td>631.9</td>
<td>582.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Earnings Index inc Bonus (Headline Rate*)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060912g.jpg" width="353">
Yesterday we reported a fall in Japanese machine orders in July. Today&#39;s releases of a rise in corporate goods prices (formerly wholesale prices) and a slight deterioration in consumer confidence in August are two more indicators that suggest that the outlook for Japan&#39;s economy is becoming less sanguine.
Corporate goods prices rose 0.6% from July to August and were 5.8% above August, 2005. The principal cause of the rise in the total index has been the prices of imported goods, particularly petroleum and metals. Prices of Chemicals and Related Goods rose 2.8% in the month of August and were 13.6% above August, 2005. The comparable figures for Metals and Related Products were 0.1% and 25.2%. The year to year increases in the total Corporate Goods Prices Index and the year to year increases in the price index of imported Metals and Related products is shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060912h.jpg" width="353">
Apparently, Japanese businessmen have had trouble passing their rising costs on to the consumer. The second chart compares the year to year price increases in the Corporate Goods Price Index with those of the Consumer Price Index. It is clear that the increases in corporate prices have had little impact on the consumer prices. The inability to pass on higher costs will affect corporate profits negatively.
Consistent data on consumer confidence in Japan are available only from April, 2004 when the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet integrated the Consumer Confidence Survey, the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, and the One-person household Consumer Confidence Survey into the current survey. Consumer confidence is based on consumers&#39; appraisals of their overall livelihood, income growth, employment, and willingness to purchase durable goods and is expressed in a diffusion index. Ever since the inception of the series, the index has remained below the 50 level, suggesting that, on balance, pessimists outweigh optimists. The index was 47.8 in August, down from 48.6 in July and from 48.4 in August, 2005. The available data are plotted in the third chart. It appears that the improvement in confidence that began in early 2005.may be at an end.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060912i.jpg" width="353">
Although business seems to have trouble passing on its increased cost to consumers, a majority of consumers now expect prices to rise year from now. As shown in the third chart almost 60% of the households expect prices to rise up to 5% over the next year and 23.4% expect prices to remain unchanged. A year ago, in August, 2005, 41.8% expected prices to rise up to 5% and 43.4% expected prices to remain unchanged. In the chart we have added the percent of households expecting prices to rise up to 2% and those expecting prices to rise by more than 2%, but less than 5% and compared this series with the percent of households expecting prices to remain the same.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Japan</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 06</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 06</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Corporate Goods Prices (2000=100)</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>106.0</td>
<td>100.8</td>
<td>0.87</td>
<td>5.75</td>
<td>100.1</td>
<td>97.1</td>
<td>96.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Prices</td>
<td>101.5</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>98.2</td>
<td>0.20</td>
<td>3.36</td>
<td>97.7</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>94.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export Prices</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>98.4</td>
<td>0.68</td>
<td>5.69</td>
<td>98.3</td>
<td>95.4</td>
<td>97.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Import Prices</td>
<td>143.1</td>
<td>140.2</td>
<td>120.8</td>
<td>2.07</td>
<td>18.46</td>
<td>118.0</td>
<td>104.3</td>
<td>100.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemical &amp; Related Prices</td>
<td>141.0</td>
<td>137.2</td>
<td>124.1</td>
<td>2.77</td>
<td>13.62</td>
<td>123.5</td>
<td>114.7</td>
<td>104.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Metals &amp; Related Prices</td>
<td>195.1</td>
<td>193.2</td>
<td>155.8</td>
<td>0.98</td>
<td>25.22</td>
<td>153.6</td>
<td>130.3</td>
<td>110.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence (Diffusion Index)</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>48.6</td>
<td>48.4</td>
<td>-1.65</td>
<td>-1.24</td>
<td>47.3</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Yesterday we reported a fall in Japanese machine orders in July. Today's releases of a rise in corporate goods prices (formerly wholesale prices) and a slight deterioration in consumer confidence in August are two more indicators that [...]

More Signs of Trouble Ahead for the Japanese Economy

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060912e.jpg" width="353">
Small business optimism in August reversed all of the prior month&#39;s uptick and fell 2.2%, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). At 95.9 the index was at its lowest level since March of 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
Respondents expecting the economy to improve fell moderately but the percentage expecting higher real sales in six months plunged.
The percentage of firms planning to increase employment improved to the highest level since January and the number of firms currently with one or more job openings rose slightly. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the NFIB percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060912f.jpg" width="353">
The percent planning to raise capital expenditures fell to 28%, below the 32% of last year..The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices slipped back to 29% and the percentage of firms actually raising prices also slipped to 22%. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
Evolution of Retail Payments and the Role of the Federal Reserve, yesterday&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20060911/default.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>95.9</td>
<td>98.1</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>101.6</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Small business optimism in August reversed all of the prior month's uptick and fell 2.2%, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). At 95.9 the index was at its lowest level since March of 2003. During the [...]

Small Business Optimism At A Three Year Low

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

251218L5.jpg

251218M5.jpg

The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% y/y during November, down from 2.8% in October. The 0.2% m/m increase fell short of the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y gain in the headline CPI was the weakest since April. It was down from September’s high of 3.0% and compared to 2.9% during 2024. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.1% (2.6% y/y) in November. Its y/y rise compared to 2.8% y/y in October and was the weakest rise since March 2021.	

Energy prices rose 1.6% (4.1% y/y in November. Gasoline prices strengthened 3.0% (0.9% y/y). Fuel oil prices increased 3.1% (11.3% y/y). Natural gas prices fell 2.1% (+9.1% y/y), and electricity prices strengthened 1.1% (6.9% y/y). 
Food prices rose 0.1% (2.6% y/y) during November. Egg prices declined 6.4% (-13.2% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices strengthened 0.8% (6.8% y/y), while dairy product prices fell 0.9% (-1.6% y/y). Cereal & bakery product costs held steady (+1.9% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.4% and were little changed y/y. Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.9% and 4.3% y/y in November.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% and rose a steady 1.4% y/y during November. Prices of used cars and trucks increased 0.3% (3.6% y/y), and new vehicle costs rose 0.2% (0.6% y/y). Appliance prices fell 0.6% (+0.5% y/y) while home furnishings prices rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y). Recreation product costs fell 0.3% but increased 0.7% y/y in November. Apparel prices increased 0.6% (0.1% y/y) in November. Education & communication product costs declined 0.3% (-3.1% y/y). Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in November. 

Services prices less energy edged 0.1% higher but increased 3.0% y/y in November, down from 7.0% y/y in 2022. Shelter prices (35.5% of the CPI) rose 0.1% (3.0% y/y), as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y). Transportation service prices fell 0.3% (1.7% y/y). The cost of medical services edged 0.1% and rose 3.3% y/y, and the cost of recreation services fell 0.3% (+2.4% y/y). Education & communication services prices increased 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

For the release of CPI on December 18, 2025, the BLS was able to retroactively acquire most nonsurvey data for October and will publish October 2025 values where possible. However, the majority of the CPI series rely on survey data which was not collected for October 2025 due to the government shutdown. Accordingly, the BLS will not publish October values for those series. Haver Analytics has created a second set of CPI indexes and relative importance series in **USECON**. These series will contain any published BLS values for October and interpolated values for unpublished detailed indexes. We will then calculate higher aggregate series such as the All Items index and All Items less food and energy using any published indexes along with our interpolated indexes and relative importance. 


251218N5.jpg

251218O5.jpg

- Year-to-year comparison is slowest in four months.
- Core price gain exhibits weakest y/y increase since 2021. 
- Services price inflation tumbles y/y; core goods price gain is stable.


U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Moderates in November

Sandy Batten

251219j5.jpg

251219k5.jpg

Existing home sales rose 0.5% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in November to 4.13 million homes (SAAR) following a 1.5% monthly gain in October and a 1.3% monthly rise in September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It was the highest level of sales since February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The average effective 30-year mortgage interest rate was unchanged at 6.54% last month, but this is down markedly from 7.10% in May and accounts for some of the revival in home sales over the past several months. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rose 0.8% m/m (-0.8% y/y) in November to 3.75 million units after a 1.1% m/m rise in October and a 1.4% monthly gain in September. Sales of condos and co-ops slumped 2.6% m/m (-2.6% y/y) to 380,000 in November following a 5.4% monthly jump in October.

Compared to a month ago, sales rose 4.1% m/m in the Northeast, increased 1.1% m/m in the South, were unchanged in the West and fell 2.0% m/m in the Midwest. Compared to a year ago, sales were unchanged in both the Northeast and the South, fell 3.0% y/y in the Midwest and declined 1.3% y/y in the West.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) declined 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $409,200 in November. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $414,300 in November. Prices of single-family homes in the Northeast edged up 0.9% from a year ago. Prices in the Midwest jumped 5.8% y/y; prices in the South rose 1.0% y/y. In contrast, prices in the West declined 0.8% from a year ago.

Inventories of homes for sale continued to weaken in November. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) slumped 5.9% m/m (+7.5% y/y) to 1.43 million units in November. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) slid to 4.2 months, its lowest reading since March.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.


251219l5.jpg

251219M5.jpg

- Existing home sales increased 0.5% m/m in November, the third consecutive monthly gain.
- Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, were unchanged in the West, and fell in the Midwest.
- Year-over-year sales were unchanged in the Northeast and South and decreased in the Midwest and West.


U.S. Existing Home Sales Edged Up in November

Robert Brusca

251219E.jpg

The new UK Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey on the distributive trades sector shows a sharp weakening of an already weak survey for December and for the outlook into January of 2026. 

The month-to-month deterioration from November was widespread across metrics for retailing as well as for wholesaling for the current month as well as for the outlook. The monthly degradation is without exception across the board - omitting the inventory metric which is a different animal in any event since inventory building is sometimes involuntary. 

**The Retail survey**
Current conditions: In December, the retail survey for sales compared to a year ago, orders compared to year ago, and sales for the time of year (a seasonal adjustment metric), all worsened month-to-month. The November readings were weak and in December sales compared to a year-ago worsened by 12 points, Orders compared to a year ago worsened by 17 points month-to-month and sales for the time of year worsened by 11 points. These metrics for December are below their respective 12-month average by 6 to 13 points, as well for these categories. The rankings tell a stark story, year-on-year sales have been lower only 5.3% of the time, Year-on-year orders have been weaker only 5.6% of the time, while time of the year sales have been lower only 13% of the time. These are all extremely low-ranking metrics.

Expected Conditions: In January expected conditions have weakened month-to-month by amounts ranging from 33 points to 16 points depending on the metric. And sales and orders compared to a year ago as well as sales for the time of year each are weaker than their respective 12-month average readings by amounts ranging from 4 points to 23 points. The rankings on expectations are even worse than for the current metrics. Expected sales compared to a year ago rank lower less than 1% of the time, the same is true of orders. While sales for the time of year have been weaker 7.7 percent of the time. 
 
**Wholesale survey** 
The rankings for wholesaling are even lower than for retailing across the current and expected metrics. The month-to-month degradation for the current readings ranges from 7 points to 17 points weaker while the reading degradation monthly ranges from 5 points to 16 points. Wholesale sales and orders compared to a year ago and sales for the time of year each rank below the 5% mark. The expectations for January shows expectations for the three categories each are at a 2.5 percentile standing or lower. 

**Summing up**
The distributive trades survey has all but crashed and burned in December. Over the last 26 years the average of the three current metrics’ rankings has been lower only 18 times. The average outlook ranking for the month ahead has been weaker only 5 times in the last 26 years (over 313 months). On a relative basis the expected sales/orders performance is more depressed than the Current results for January. The pooled rankings show current ranking over the past 26-years weaker only 5.8 percent of the time with expectations lower only 1.6 percent of the time. These are very weak metrics. It is surprising that the BOE is walking on eggshells to cut rates with mixed support for rate cuts amid such weakness. There is already a GDP decline in the monthly data for October. UK and inflation is still too high, but it is breaking lower at a relatively fast pace. Will the UK be the first economy down after Covid? 




251219.jpg

United Kingdom

CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey Weakens Sharply in December

251218E.jpg

Belgian consumer confidence has been on the rise since early this year, however, in December the index has taken a step backwards with a reading of -1 compared to a November reading of +2 and then an October reading of zero. The confidence indicator, on data back to 1991 has a ranking in its 78.5 percentile, marking it as a reasonably strong reading on confidence compared to its values over that period. On the whole the trend is still solid, the month’s step-back is small. 

**The Economic Situation** 
Economic situation for the next 12 months is weaker in December on a reading of -28 compared to -26 in November. The assessment of the previous 12-months is weaker in December at -42 compared to a reading of -38 in November. The outlook is weaker and the recent legacy is assessed as being slightly weaker as well, than it was in November. The assessment of the economic situation for the next 12 months is weak at a 9.7 percentile standing and the assessment of the previous 12 months is also weak at a 23.4 percentile standing.

**Price Trends**
Price trends are seen as higher over the next 12-months at a reading of 38 compared to 27 in November. The backward-looking assessment of price trends also has them stronger in December than 
in November at a reading of 58 compared to 56 in November. Both of these price trend assessments 
are high with the outlook reading at its 94th percentile and the backward-looking assessment in its 81st percentile. Price expectations hit their low mid 2023-late 2023 and have been on the rise steadily ever since. The price metric of ‘12-months ahead’ was at zero in April of 2024 but climbed to +19 by February 2025 and currently sits at a level of 38. Price expectations are well in gear to the upside in Belgium despite relative price stability in the Euro-Area. 

**Unemployment**
Concerns about unemployment elevated slightly in December to -9 from -10 in November but these are significant readings compared to, say, the 12-month-ago reading which is at a level of +32. The sense of backtracking here is extremely weak. The sense of progress on the part of survey respondents becoming more confident about the future is clearly the prevalent feature here. The December reading for unemployment in fact has only a 2.5 percentile standing, indicating extremely weak concerns about the prospects of unemployment ahead despite the minor month-to-month step-back.

**Major Household purchase environment**
The environment for making major household purchases deteriorates slightly in December at -15 compared to -13 in November. This only puts the index back to where it was in October. The response to the question, ‘is it favorable to buy at present’ is unchanged from its November value at -19 and it has been stuck there for three months in a row. The outlook to make major household purchases in the next 12-months logs a weaker reading at -15 than its 12-month value of -13but is stronger than its 12-month level of -18. The reading for the ‘favorable to buy at present’ question, however, is weaker at a -19 compared to -14, logged 12-months ago. The environment for making a household purchase over the next 12-months has a 55.6 percentile ranking which is above its median, however, the assessment of ‘favorable to buy at present’ has only a 20th percentile standing significantly below its median reading (median readings occur at a ranking of 50%)..

**The Financial situation**
The financial situation for the next 12-months is assessed weaker at -3 in December, compared to zero in November; it compares to a - 2 in October. The assessment 12-months ago was also -2 so this is a very minor deterioration comparing the financial situation of households with the last 12-months produces another deterioration at -8 in December compared to -6 in November and that compares to 12-months ago at -5 another deterioration. However, the backward-looking assessment has a 52-percentile standing which is above its median while the outlook reading of -3 has a 23-percentile standing which puts it in the lower quarter of all expectations on data back to 1991. The current situation is appraised at 20 a step-back from November and October levels as well as from 12-months ago. But the current appraisal also has a queue standing in its 65.7 percentile which has a comfortable margin above its median reading. Households clearly have concerns about their financial situation even though their outlook for making household purchases is above median and their concerns about unemployment are low. Currently, conditions appear to be construed as solid.

**Savings**
Household savings over the next 12-months are weaker in December at a reading of 20 compared to 26 in November; they are closer to their 12-month ago reading of 21. December is still a relatively high reading, in any event, with a 91-percentile standing. The question, ‘is it favorable to save at present’ is unchanged in November compared to December at a reading of -28 although it is weaker than it was 12-months ago and the percentile standing at its 78th percentile, again, a firm reading for this metric.

**Summing up - assessment** 
The consumer confidence reading from the Belgian National Bank this month shows a slight set back month-to-month, however, there is a significant an improvement that has been underway that is quite clear from the chart. The concerns that consumers have seemed to be about their financial situation haven't translated into concerns about unemployment or their willingness to make major household purchases, with unemployment concerns very low and their willingness to make household purchases for the period ahead at essentially normal levels. Still, there is more concern about inflation that is percolating, which is interesting considering that overall inflation has been relatively stable and muted in the European monetary area. 




251218.jpg

Belgium

Belgian Consumer Confidence - On the Rise, but Weaker Month-to-Month

Andrew Cates

**Faster-than-Expected Monetary Easing**
Our first potential upside risk for 2026 is that monetary policy across most major advanced economies is loosened further and by more than markets and forecasters currently anticipate. Monetary policy cycles have a history of being underestimated in both length and magnitude—in large part because of the powerful feedback loops between interest rates, inflation, and economic behaviour. On the way up, higher policy rates feed into mortgage costs, debt-service burdens, rents, and the general cost of doing business, reinforcing wage pressures and inflation persistence. But these same channels work in reverse on the way down. As rates fall, debt servicing eases, housing and rental inflation softens, and cost pressures across the economy unwind more rapidly than expected—allowing inflation to decelerate faster and creating scope for further easing. A risk, therefore, is that if disinflation becomes self-reinforcing, central banks find themselves cutting rates more aggressively than currently priced, not because of economic distress, but because restrictive policy proves increasingly unnecessary.

251218Z1.jpg

**Energy Supply Dynamics Prove More Supportive**
The second chart reinforces the message from the first: easing monetary policy may be accompanied—and amplified—by a more benign energy backdrop. Recent projections from the EIA point to a renewed build-up in OECD crude oil and liquids inventories over the year ahead, a dynamic that has historically been associated with downward pressure on oil prices. If inventories continue to rise as supply growth outpaces demand, spot prices for crude could undershoot current forecasts, keeping energy inflation subdued. That, in turn, would reinforce disinflationary forces already in play—lowering headline CPI, easing cost pressures for firms and households, and giving central banks greater confidence to loosen policy further. In that sense, softer oil prices would not just be a standalone positive shock, but part of a reinforcing feedback loop alongside rate cuts, supporting real incomes, financial conditions, and global growth into 2026.


251218Z2.jpg

**AI-Driven Productivity Gains Materialise More Quickly** 
The third chart shows a clear pickup in US nonfinancial productivity growth, reviving the debate around whether AI-driven efficiency gains may arrive sooner than many forecasters expect. While the longer-term productivity potential of AI remains uncertain and uneven across sectors, there are reasons to think that at least some near-term gains could prove more tangible than currently assumed. Rather than transformative breakthroughs, early benefits are likely to come from incremental improvements—automation of routine processes, better scheduling and logistics, more efficient use of capital and labour, and modest reductions in overhead costs—areas where US firms are already well positioned to implement new technologies quickly. If these gains accumulate and diffuse more broadly, the implications would still be meaningful. Even a modest, sustained uplift in productivity would help contain unit labour costs, support real income growth, and raise the economy’s speed limit without generating renewed inflation pressure. In that scenario, productivity would not need to “revolutionise” the economy to matter: incremental efficiency gains could nonetheless provide a supportive backdrop for growth, earnings, and policy easing into 2026—representing a genuine upside risk to the outlook.


251218Z3.jpg

**The US Economy Proves Resilient Again**
The next chart highlights a further upside risk to the 2026 outlook: the possibility that the US economy once again outperforms its peers. Unlike the typical pre-recession backdrop, there is little evidence of meaningful financial stress in the US private sector. After a prolonged period of balance-sheet repair, private-sector debt ratios have been trending lower in recent years, while the sector as a whole is running a healthy financial surplus. This stands in stark contrast to previous late-cycle episodes, which were characterised by rising leverage, widening deficits, and growing dependence on credit expansion. The absence of private-sector excesses reduces the economy’s vulnerability to higher rates and external shocks, and helps explain why growth has remained more durable than expected. If households and firms continue to prioritise balance-sheet strength rather than forced deleveraging, the usual mechanisms that tip the economy into recession may fail to materialise. In that environment, even modest easing in financial conditions could translate into renewed spending and investment, allowing the US to sustain above-trend growth into 2026—representing another upside risk to the global outlook.


251218Z4.jpg

**India’s Growth Engine Accelerates Further** 
Chart 5 points to another potential upside risk for 2026 emanating from India’s economy. After a period of relative pessimism earlier in the year, consensus growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised modestly higher, even as inflation projections have continued to drift lower. This combination—firmer growth expectations alongside easing inflation pressures—creates scope for a more supportive policy backdrop than markets currently assume. With real interest rates no longer rising and financial conditions stabilising, India’s investment cycle, already underpinned by public infrastructure spending and improving corporate balance sheets, could prove more durable than forecast. If these trends persist, India may deliver growth that is both stronger and more internally driven than expected, providing a meaningful demand impulse to the broader global economy. Given India’s increasing weight in global growth, even small upside surprises would have outsized effects on trade, commodity demand, and regional activity—reinforcing the case that the global outlook for 2026 may be skewed to the upside.


251218Z5.jpg

**The Global South Becomes a More Independent Source of Demand** 
The final chart points to a broader upside risk for the global economy in 2026: that economies across the so-called Global South generate more durable momentum than currently assumed. With a few notable exceptions—such as China and Thailand—many emerging economies continue to benefit from stronger growth in their working-age populations and/or faster real GDP per capita growth than their advanced-economy counterparts. These demographic and income dynamics are helping to underpin domestic consumption, support labour-force expansion, and attract capital inflows, as reflected in the pattern of net FDI across countries. In contrast, much of the advanced world faces binding demographic constraints and lower steady-state growth rates, limiting the scope for demand to re-accelerate organically. If growth in the Global South proves more resilient and internally driven—rather than overly dependent on exports to advanced economies—it could provide a more stable and geographically diversified source of global demand. In that scenario, global growth in 2026 would be less reliant on a narrow set of advanced economies, reinforcing the case that risks to the outlook may be skewed to the upside.


251218Z6.jpg

_This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2025 The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January._

Last week’s Charts of the Week focused on the darker tail risks hanging over the 2026 outlook: the possibility of monetary policy mis-calibration, that geopolitics and trade fragmentation further disrupt supply chains, and that elevated debt levels—particularly in the public sector—reassert themselves as a drag on growth. This week’s charts take a deliberately different tack. Taken together, they highlight a set of upside risks that are possibly underappreciated in current forecasts. For example, policy easing across advanced economies may extend further than expected as disinflation feeds on itself (chart 1); oil prices could surprise on the downside as inventories rebuild (chart 2); US productivity may deliver incremental but meaningful gains sooner than assumed (chart 3); the US economy itself could continue to benefit from an absence of private-sector financial stress (chart 4); India’s growth momentum might firm again as inflation pressures recede (chart 5); and, more broadly, parts of the Global South appear increasingly capable of generating their own demand impulse, supported by favourable demographics and income growth (chart 6). None of these forces is guaranteed, and each carries its own caveats—but together they suggest that, having spent much of the past year fixated on downside risks, the risks to global growth in 2026 may be more evenly balanced than is widely assumed.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6tL5l7g70DuLWxKOokuRit?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up

More Signs of Trouble Ahead for the Japanese Economy

Small Business Optimism At A Three Year Low