Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115d.jpg" width="353">
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office in Japan announced today that new orders for machinery were well above expectations. On a seasonally unadjusted basis new orders were 19.3% above November, 2005 and on a seasonally adjusted basis were 14.22% above October.
Orders are reported in total in the month they are received even if they are very large and will not be completed for several months; as a result, the series tends to be extremely volatile. ESRI publishes a &quot;Headline&quot; series which excludes two of the most erratic components--ships and electric power. The seasonally unadjusted series for total orders and the seasonally unadjusted Headline Series are shown in the first chart. On a seasonally unadjusted basis the Headline series was 0.7% above November, 2005 and the seasonally adjusted series was 3.8% above October.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115e.jpg" width="353">
With data through November, we have a good idea of how the current year is fairing vis-&agrave;-vis 2005. Total orders for the period January through November, 2006 were 27,963.3 billion yen or 12.6% above the 24,841.8 billion yen in the comparable period in 2005. This represents a substantial increase over the 4.35% increase in 2005 over 2004. The Headline Series shows a different picture. The eleven month total of Headline orders was 11,721.5 billion yen in the current year or only 4.77% above the 11.188.1 billion yen recorded in the January to November period of 2005. Moreover, the indicated increase for 2006 is well below the actual increase of 7.11% in 2005. It would appear that ships and electric power have provided much of the growth in total orders this year. However, the difference between total new orders and the Headline series includes foreign and government orders as well as ships and electric power.
In the second chart showing seasonally adjusted foreign and government orders, it is clear that foreign orders have been an important part of the growth in total orders while government orders have played a slightly negative role.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">JAPAN NEW ORDERS &nbsp; (Bil Yen, ex where noted)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov06</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 06</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 06</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 05</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 06/ J-N 05%</th>
<th scope="col">2005 %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 %</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total New Orders NAS</td>
<td>2,482.7</td>
<td>2,081.5</td>
<td>3,069.2</td>
<td>27,963.3</td>
<td>24,841.8</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>4.35</td>
<td>4.24</td>
<td>15.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y percent change</td>
<td>19.27</td>
<td>-32.18</td>
<td>39.20</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total New Orders SA</td>
<td>2,804.6</td>
<td>2,455.6</td>
<td>2,319.4</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> M/M percent change </td>
<td>14.22</td>
<td>5.87</td>
<td>-12.95</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series NAS</td>
<td>994.7</td>
<td>861.5</td>
<td>1,305.3</td>
<td>11,721.5</td>
<td>11,188.1</td>
<td>4.77</td>
<td>7.11</td>
<td>4.43</td>
<td>10.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y percent change</td>
<td>0.70</td>
<td>-1.18</td>
<td>-14.7</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series SA</td>
<td>1,064.2</td>
<td>1,025.4</td>
<td>997.5</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> M/M percent change </td>
<td>3.78</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>-7.26</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Foreign New Orders </td>
<td>1,302.5</td>
<td>1,088.4</td>
<td>795.8</td>
<td>11,382.1</td>
<td>9024.7</td>
<td>26.23</td>
<td>6.85</td>
<td>9.43</td>
<td>37.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Public New Orders </td>
<td>229.5</td>
<td>209.0</td>
<td>223.4</td>
<td>2,625.2</td>
<td>2,674.9</td>
<td>-1.82</td>
<td>9.80</td>
<td>-6.44</td>
<td>-5.13</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office in Japan announced today that new orders for machinery were well above expectations. On a seasonally unadjusted basis new orders were 19.3% above November, 2005 [...]

Growth in New Orders for Ships and Electric Power and for Export Exceed Growth in Japanese Headline Series for New [...]

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115a.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the major 7 OECD economies rose 0.2% after a like gain during October but earlier month&#39;s increases were revised lower. The index&#39;s six month growth rate dropped to 1.1% from 1.6% as a result of the revisions.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven OECD countries.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. leading indicators increased 0.2% for the second month but September&#39;s gain was revised down sharply to a slight decline. The index&#39;s six month growth rate as a result was halved to 1.0%, down from growth rates above 4% at the beginning of 2006. The correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and U.S. real GDP growth has been a high 73% during the last ten years.
The leading index for the European Union (15 countries) rose 0.1% for the third month in the last four. The modest gains dropped the index&#39;s six month growth rate to 2.0%, half the growth of earlier in the year. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the change in the leading index and the quarterly change in the European Union GDP volume index.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115c.jpg" width="353">
The German leading index rose a firm 0.5% increase in November but the 0.5% increase first reported for October was revised to 0.2%. That pulled the leaders&#39; growth to 3.5%, less than half its earlier growth. During the last ten years there has been a 32% correlation between the change in the German leading index and the quarterly change in GDP volume.
The Italian leading index fell for the fourth month in the last five and lowered the series&#39; six month growth rate to -2.1%.
A French leaders also dipped 0.1% but six month growth in leaders held steady at a moderate 2.3%. During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and growth in France&#39;s real GDP.
The leading index in Japan rose 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Nevertheless the index&#39;s six month growth rate remained negative at -0.9%. The leaders&#39; correlation with Japan&#39;s real economic growth has been a meaningful 41% during the last ten years.
The Canadian leaders surged 1.5% after October&#39;s 0.9% jump. The leaders&#39; six month growth rate consequently surged to 6.9%, its best since 2002, due to higher share prices in Toronto. The correlation of the leaders&#39; growth with Canadian real GDP has been 49% during the last ten years.
The UK leaders rose a modest 0.2% for the second month and the six month growth rate increased to a low 1.4%. During the last ten years there has been a 36% correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and U.K. real GDP growth.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/21/37913250.pdf">here</a>.
OECD Warns Climate Change Is Threatening Europe&#39;s Skiing Trade is available <a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/22/0,2340,en_2649_201185_37825494_1_1_1_1,00.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>105.45</td>
<td>105.23</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>102.79</td>
<td>102.30</td>
<td>97.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Leading Index of the major 7 OECD economies rose 0.2% after a like gain during October but earlier month's increases were revised lower. The index's six month growth rate dropped to 1.1% from 1.6% as a result of the revisions. [...]

OECD Leaders Rose

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115a.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the major 7 OECD economies rose 0.2% after a like gain during October but earlier month&#39;s increases were revised lower. The index&#39;s six month growth rate dropped to 1.1% from 1.6% as a result of the revisions.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven OECD countries.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. leading indicators increased 0.2% for the second month but September&#39;s gain was revised down sharply to a slight decline. The index&#39;s six month growth rate as a result was halved to 1.0%, down from growth rates above 4% at the beginning of 2006. The correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and U.S. real GDP growth has been a high 73% during the last ten years.
The leading index for the European Union (15 countries) rose 0.1% for the third month in the last four. The modest gains dropped the index&#39;s six month growth rate to 2.0%, half the growth of earlier in the year. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the change in the leading index and the quarterly change in the European Union GDP volume index.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115c.jpg" width="353">
The German leading index rose a firm 0.5% increase in November but the 0.5% increase first reported for October was revised to 0.2%. That pulled the leaders&#39; growth to 3.5%, less than half its earlier growth. During the last ten years there has been a 32% correlation between the change in the German leading index and the quarterly change in GDP volume.
The Italian leading index fell for the fourth month in the last five and lowered the series&#39; six month growth rate to -2.1%.
A French leaders also dipped 0.1% but six month growth in leaders held steady at a moderate 2.3%. During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and growth in France&#39;s real GDP.
The leading index in Japan rose 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Nevertheless the index&#39;s six month growth rate remained negative at -0.9%. The leaders&#39; correlation with Japan&#39;s real economic growth has been a meaningful 41% during the last ten years.
The Canadian leaders surged 1.5% after October&#39;s 0.9% jump. The leaders&#39; six month growth rate consequently surged to 6.9%, its best since 2002, due to higher share prices in Toronto. The correlation of the leaders&#39; growth with Canadian real GDP has been 49% during the last ten years.
The UK leaders rose a modest 0.2% for the second month and the six month growth rate increased to a low 1.4%. During the last ten years there has been a 36% correlation between the leaders&#39; growth rate and U.K. real GDP growth.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/21/37913250.pdf">here</a>.
OECD Warns Climate Change Is Threatening Europe&#39;s Skiing Trade is available <a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/22/0,2340,en_2649_201185_37825494_1_1_1_1,00.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>105.45</td>
<td>105.23</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>102.79</td>
<td>102.30</td>
<td>97.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Growth in New Orders for Ships and Electric Power and for Export Exceed Growth in  Japanese Headline Series for New Orders  
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> January 15, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115d.jpg" width="353">
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office in Japan announced today that new orders for machinery were well above expectations. On a seasonally unadjusted basis new orders were 19.3% above November, 2005 and on a seasonally adjusted basis were 14.22% above October.
Orders are reported in total in the month they are received even if they are very large and will not be completed for several months; as a result, the series tends to be extremely volatile. ESRI publishes a &quot;Headline&quot; series which excludes two of the most erratic components--ships and electric power. The seasonally unadjusted series for total orders and the seasonally unadjusted Headline Series are shown in the first chart. On a seasonally unadjusted basis the Headline series was 0.7% above November, 2005 and the seasonally adjusted series was 3.8% above October.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070115e.jpg" width="353">
With data through November, we have a good idea of how the current year is fairing vis-&agrave;-vis 2005. Total orders for the period January through November, 2006 were 27,963.3 billion yen or 12.6% above the 24,841.8 billion yen in the comparable period in 2005. This represents a substantial increase over the 4.35% increase in 2005 over 2004. The Headline Series shows a different picture. The eleven month total of Headline orders was 11,721.5 billion yen in the current year or only 4.77% above the 11.188.1 billion yen recorded in the January to November period of 2005. Moreover, the indicated increase for 2006 is well below the actual increase of 7.11% in 2005. It would appear that ships and electric power have provided much of the growth in total orders this year. However, the difference between total new orders and the Headline series includes foreign and government orders as well as ships and electric power.
In the second chart showing seasonally adjusted foreign and government orders, it is clear that foreign orders have been an important part of the growth in total orders while government orders have played a slightly negative role.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">JAPAN NEW ORDERS &nbsp; (Bil Yen, ex where noted)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov06</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 06</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 06</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 05</th>
<th scope="col">J-N 06/ J-N 05%</th>
<th scope="col">2005 %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 %</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total New Orders NAS</td>
<td>2,482.7</td>
<td>2,081.5</td>
<td>3,069.2</td>
<td>27,963.3</td>
<td>24,841.8</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>4.35</td>
<td>4.24</td>
<td>15.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y percent change</td>
<td>19.27</td>
<td>-32.18</td>
<td>39.20</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total New Orders SA</td>
<td>2,804.6</td>
<td>2,455.6</td>
<td>2,319.4</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> M/M percent change </td>
<td>14.22</td>
<td>5.87</td>
<td>-12.95</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series NAS</td>
<td>994.7</td>
<td>861.5</td>
<td>1,305.3</td>
<td>11,721.5</td>
<td>11,188.1</td>
<td>4.77</td>
<td>7.11</td>
<td>4.43</td>
<td>10.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y percent change</td>
<td>0.70</td>
<td>-1.18</td>
<td>-14.7</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series SA</td>
<td>1,064.2</td>
<td>1,025.4</td>
<td>997.5</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> M/M percent change </td>
<td>3.78</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>-7.26</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Foreign New Orders </td>
<td>1,302.5</td>
<td>1,088.4</td>
<td>795.8</td>
<td>11,382.1</td>
<td>9024.7</td>
<td>26.23</td>
<td>6.85</td>
<td>9.43</td>
<td>37.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Public New Orders </td>
<td>229.5</td>
<td>209.0</td>
<td>223.4</td>
<td>2,625.2</td>
<td>2,674.9</td>
<td>-1.82</td>
<td>9.80</td>
<td>-6.44</td>
<td>-5.13</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112f.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in India was strong again in November, extending a long but irregular uptrend in the industrial sector of that rapidly emerging economy. According to the Central Statistical Organization, IP was up 5.5% in the month and 14.4% on the year. The CSO data are not seasonally adjusted. The month-to-month comparison quoted here is taken from seasonal adjustment performed by Haver Analytics. Because the month-to-month movements are very erratic, our discussion below covers yearly growth trends both in the latest month and over a longer period.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112g.jpg" width="353">
Marked acceleration of even heavy industry is evident in the categorical breakdown. Basic metals and alloys surged by 25.4% over November 2005, a third consecutive month of 20%-plus yearly gains. Machinery excluding transport equipment expanded 17.3% in November and the last six months have run 14.9% ahead of the comparable year-ago period. Nonmetallic mineral products have a similar pattern, with November up 17.7% and the last six months up 13.8% on the year-ago period.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112h.jpg" width="353">
Among &quot;softer&quot; products, rubber, plastics and petroleum expanded 23.2% in November and 13.1% in the six-month period. This follows a particularly weak performance over the prior five years. Cotton textiles, the kind of manufacturing often associated with India, had experienced a long period of little or no growth, but has lately staged a comeback. By November 2006, production here was up 18.3% from November 2005 and the six months are up 13.5% from the same time in 2005.
The service sector in India remains far larger than manufacturing, measured by gross value added. But these gains in industrial production show a significant diversification of the Indian economy. While every nation need not be a major player in world metals markets or motor vehicles, the breadth of recent gains -- especially the return of strength in textiles -- gives a firmer foundation for further development.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">India (NSA, yr/yr % changes)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">General Industrial Production &nbsp; (SA, FY93=100)</td>
<td>250.9</td>
<td>237.9</td>
<td>245.5</td>
<td>216.7</td>
<td>200.8</td>
<td>185.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo % Chg, SA</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg, NSA</td>
<td>14.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>12.0</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Cotton Textiles</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>14.7</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum</td>
<td>23.2</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Basic Metals &amp; Alloys</td>
<td>25.4</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>13.8</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>10.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Machinery ex Transport</td>
<td>17.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>14.2</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>24.3</td>
<td>8.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Industrial production in India was strong again in November, extending a long but irregular uptrend in the industrial sector of that rapidly emerging economy. According to the Central Statistical Organization, IP was up 5.5% in the [...]

Broad Industrial Production Advance in India

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112e.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since September of last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in business inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production. Using quarterly figures, there has been an 84% correlation between the change in real private nonfarm inventories and production.
Business sales rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y), the first increase in three months. Wholesale sales led the gain with a 1.0% (7.95 y/y) pop and retail sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y). Factory shipments ticked up 0.1% (0.7% y/y). As a result the inventory to sales ratio was stable at 1.30 for the third month. 
Retail inventories fell for the third straight month but excluding autos they rose 0.3%. General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and have been accumulating strongly since May. Clothing store inventories surged 1.6% (9.7% y/y), the third month of strong gain. Furniture inventories fell for the second month with a 0.2% decline (+4.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since [...]

U.S. Inventory Accumulation Up A Bit

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112c.jpg" width="353">
Higher petroleum prices fueled a 1.1% jump in overall import prices last month which was about double Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain. 
The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.8% in December after sharp declines during the prior three months. So far in January the price of WTI crude oil has fallen roughly six dollars (-10%) from the $62.03 per bbl. averaged in December and yesterday&#39;s price was down ten dollars to $51.89.
Less petroleum import prices rose 0.4% in December and the prior month&#39;s increase was revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112d.jpg" width="353">
Prices for nonoil industrial supplies &amp; materials surged 1.5% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.0% November spike. Prices for nondurable industrial supplies less petroleum rose 2.6% (-5.8% y/y) after an upwardly revised 8.9% November jump. Prices for durable industrial supplies &amp; materials rose 0.7% (14.7% y/y).
Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) and excluding a 0.1% (-3.6% y/y) decline in computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in December. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y).
Export prices rose 0.7% as agricultural export prices surged 2.2% (13.2% y/y) but nonagricultural export prices rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y).
The Adjustment of Global External Imbalances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices Matter? from the Federal Reserve Board is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2006/850/ifdp850.pdf">here</a>.
The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr255.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>20.7%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export- All Commodities</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Higher petroleum prices fueled a 1.1% jump in overall import prices last month which was about double Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain. The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.8% in December after sharp [...]

U.S. Import Prices Jumped

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales in December rose 0.9% though the sales gain during the prior month was lowered to 0.6% from 1.0% reported initially. The latest increase again easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Excluding autos, retail sales jumped a larger 1.0% last month, though the November gain was lowered to a still firm 0.7% from 1.1%. Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after a downwardly revised slight decline in November, as new unit vehicle sales did rise 4.4% in December.
Sales at gasoline service stations jumped 3.8% reflecting the 3.7% recovery in gasoline prices to $2.31 per gallon.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112b.jpg" width="353">
Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in November jumped 0.7% (6.2% y/y) though the November gain was revised lower to 0.5% from 0.9% reported initially. During the fourth quarter these sales rose at a 3.7% annual rate, the versus 4.2% during 3Q.
Sales of discretionary items were generally firm last month. Sales at furniture, home furnishings &amp; appliance stores jumped 1.8% (11.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 2.8% November spike. Sales at electronics &amp; appliance stores surged 3.0% (15.0% y/y) after a 5.8% November surge. Apparel store sales gained 0.6% (5.5% y/y) after two months of decline and general merchandise store sales rose 0.9% (5.4% y/y).
Building material sales fell 1.1% (-0.8% y/y), the eighth decline in the last nine months. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose a modest 0.3% (7.9% y/y) but restaurant and bar sales jumped 2.3% (9.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

US retail sales in December rose 0.9% though the sales gain during the prior month was lowered to 0.6% from 1.0% reported initially. The latest increase again easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise. Excluding autos, retail [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Firm At Yearend Led By Electronics

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales in December rose 0.9% though the sales gain during the prior month was lowered to 0.6% from 1.0% reported initially. The latest increase again easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Excluding autos, retail sales jumped a larger 1.0% last month, though the November gain was lowered to a still firm 0.7% from 1.1%. Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after a downwardly revised slight decline in November, as new unit vehicle sales did rise 4.4% in December.
Sales at gasoline service stations jumped 3.8% reflecting the 3.7% recovery in gasoline prices to $2.31 per gallon.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112b.jpg" width="353">
Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in November jumped 0.7% (6.2% y/y) though the November gain was revised lower to 0.5% from 0.9% reported initially. During the fourth quarter these sales rose at a 3.7% annual rate, the versus 4.2% during 3Q.
Sales of discretionary items were generally firm last month. Sales at furniture, home furnishings &amp; appliance stores jumped 1.8% (11.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 2.8% November spike. Sales at electronics &amp; appliance stores surged 3.0% (15.0% y/y) after a 5.8% November surge. Apparel store sales gained 0.6% (5.5% y/y) after two months of decline and general merchandise store sales rose 0.9% (5.4% y/y).
Building material sales fell 1.1% (-0.8% y/y), the eighth decline in the last nine months. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose a modest 0.3% (7.9% y/y) but restaurant and bar sales jumped 2.3% (9.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Import Prices Jumped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112c.jpg" width="353">
Higher petroleum prices fueled a 1.1% jump in overall import prices last month which was about double Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain. 
The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.8% in December after sharp declines during the prior three months. So far in January the price of WTI crude oil has fallen roughly six dollars (-10%) from the $62.03 per bbl. averaged in December and yesterday&#39;s price was down ten dollars to $51.89.
Less petroleum import prices rose 0.4% in December and the prior month&#39;s increase was revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112d.jpg" width="353">
Prices for nonoil industrial supplies &amp; materials surged 1.5% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.0% November spike. Prices for nondurable industrial supplies less petroleum rose 2.6% (-5.8% y/y) after an upwardly revised 8.9% November jump. Prices for durable industrial supplies &amp; materials rose 0.7% (14.7% y/y).
Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) and excluding a 0.1% (-3.6% y/y) decline in computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in December. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y).
Export prices rose 0.7% as agricultural export prices surged 2.2% (13.2% y/y) but nonagricultural export prices rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y).
The Adjustment of Global External Imbalances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices Matter? from the Federal Reserve Board is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2006/850/ifdp850.pdf">here</a>.
The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr255.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>20.7%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export- All Commodities</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Inventory Accumulation Up A Bit 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112e.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since September of last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in business inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production. Using quarterly figures, there has been an 84% correlation between the change in real private nonfarm inventories and production.
Business sales rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y), the first increase in three months. Wholesale sales led the gain with a 1.0% (7.95 y/y) pop and retail sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y). Factory shipments ticked up 0.1% (0.7% y/y). As a result the inventory to sales ratio was stable at 1.30 for the third month. 
Retail inventories fell for the third straight month but excluding autos they rose 0.3%. General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and have been accumulating strongly since May. Clothing store inventories surged 1.6% (9.7% y/y), the third month of strong gain. Furniture inventories fell for the second month with a 0.2% decline (+4.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Broad Industrial Production Advance in India 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112f.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in India was strong again in November, extending a long but irregular uptrend in the industrial sector of that rapidly emerging economy. According to the Central Statistical Organization, IP was up 5.5% in the month and 14.4% on the year. The CSO data are not seasonally adjusted. The month-to-month comparison quoted here is taken from seasonal adjustment performed by Haver Analytics. Because the month-to-month movements are very erratic, our discussion below covers yearly growth trends both in the latest month and over a longer period.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112g.jpg" width="353">
Marked acceleration of even heavy industry is evident in the categorical breakdown. Basic metals and alloys surged by 25.4% over November 2005, a third consecutive month of 20%-plus yearly gains. Machinery excluding transport equipment expanded 17.3% in November and the last six months have run 14.9% ahead of the comparable year-ago period. Nonmetallic mineral products have a similar pattern, with November up 17.7% and the last six months up 13.8% on the year-ago period.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070112h.jpg" width="353">
Among &quot;softer&quot; products, rubber, plastics and petroleum expanded 23.2% in November and 13.1% in the six-month period. This follows a particularly weak performance over the prior five years. Cotton textiles, the kind of manufacturing often associated with India, had experienced a long period of little or no growth, but has lately staged a comeback. By November 2006, production here was up 18.3% from November 2005 and the six months are up 13.5% from the same time in 2005.
The service sector in India remains far larger than manufacturing, measured by gross value added. But these gains in industrial production show a significant diversification of the Indian economy. While every nation need not be a major player in world metals markets or motor vehicles, the breadth of recent gains -- especially the return of strength in textiles -- gives a firmer foundation for further development.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">India (NSA, yr/yr % changes)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">General Industrial Production &nbsp; (SA, FY93=100)</td>
<td>250.9</td>
<td>237.9</td>
<td>245.5</td>
<td>216.7</td>
<td>200.8</td>
<td>185.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo % Chg, SA</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg, NSA</td>
<td>14.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>12.0</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Cotton Textiles</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>14.7</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum</td>
<td>23.2</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Basic Metals &amp; Alloys</td>
<td>25.4</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>13.8</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>10.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Machinery ex Transport</td>
<td>17.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>14.2</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>24.3</td>
<td>8.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

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Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we cover the latest developments and implications of the Middle East conflict for Asia, while also making space for other important themes, including artificial intelligence (AI). The Middle East conflict remains in a no deal state coming out of the weekend, though some early Monday optimism emerged in Asian markets following Iran’s reported offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (chart 1). Nonetheless, as the Strait closure drags on, so too do the fiscal costs of domestic fossil fuel subsidies across Asia, which have been shown to move closely with crude oil prices (chart 2). While such measures offer direct relief by cushioning household energy costs, they remain difficult to sustain over the long haul.

Over the week, we also saw a further fraying in regional monetary policy trends, with the Philippines hiking its policy rate for the first time in about two years amid inflation concerns, while Indonesia stood pat on rates (chart 3). Investor attention is likely to remain fixed on monetary policy this week, with the Bank of Japan due to decide on policy. Expectations for an April hike have faded amid the persistent Middle East conflict, though yen weakness continues to present a source of concern (chart 4). The week also brings China’s latest PMI readings (chart 5), adding to the recent run of hard data accompanying the Q1 GDP release.

Beyond the Middle East conflict, the evolution of AI continues to demand close attention. Before geopolitical tensions took centre stage, AI was the dominant market narrative — and that enthusiasm has hardly faded. If anything, recent developments suggest the story is broadening: use cases are expanding, scalability is improving, and access is widening beyond large corporates to the mass market — increasingly spilling into the realm of physical AI. It may well be this persistent wave of optimism that is helping to underpin equity valuations, even as the geopolitical backdrop darkens (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
About two months in, we remain stuck in the limbo of the US-Iran conflict, which has left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and much of the world starved of the critical oil flows needed to power the global economy. The back and forth between the US and Iran has persisted in recent weeks, with both sides again failing to reach a peace deal over the weekend, though Monday’s news of Iran offering to reopen the Strait has revived some hope in markets. In truth, commodity and market valuations do not hinge so much on a peace deal itself, but rather on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, something that could materialise even in the absence of a formal deal, though any agreement that includes and credibly delivers such a reopening would likely be warmly received by markets. Until then, market gyrations are likely to persist, with prices fluctuating in response to each new snippet of news. And until then, the world will continue both to be starved of, while gradually adapting to, the drip feed of oil flows emerging from the Strait.

260427T1.jpg

**The fiscal costs of the Middle East conflict**
As the Middle East conflict drags on, so too does the strain on fiscal resources across parts of Asia, as the costs of energy-related subsidy programmes continue to mount. While such programmes have an immediate, direct, and tangible impact in shielding households from surging energy costs, they are far from sustainable, particularly if oil prices remain well above targeted levels or stay elevated for an extended period. As chart 2 illustrates, the costs of these explicit subsidy programmes tend to rise closely with crude oil prices, as seen in India and Indonesia. Other measures adopted elsewhere, such as drawing down oil reserves, may be less fiscally costly, but are similarly difficult to sustain indefinitely. In both respects, the clock is ticking, and the world continues to hold its breath as the conflict drags on.

260427T2.jpg

**The latest central bank responses to the conflict**
Over the past week, Asia saw two central bank decisions. The Philippines’ (BSP) opted to deliver its first rate hike in about two years, while Indonesia’s (BI) chose to stand pat on policy rates and instead committed to stepped up FX intervention (chart 3). This latest round of decisions points to a further fraying of what had been a broad regional monetary policy consensus, namely that central banks would delay additional easing while maintaining a high bar for outright tightening. Domestic considerations, however, remain paramount. In the Philippines’ case, the central bank has moved to rein in inflation, which is already showing notable signs of price pass through stemming from disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. That said, BSP is not the first in the region to buck the reluctance to tighten. Singapore’s central bank had already tightened policy in mid-April, albeit through its own distinct framework, given its use of the exchange rate rather than policy rates as the primary channel for monetary policy.

260427T3.jpg

**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, a major central bank decision looms in Japan. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan to deliver a rate hike at its April meeting have ebbed amid the persistence of the Middle East conflict, to which Japan remains particularly vulnerable given its reliance on oil imports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, inflation in Japan has yet to become a major concern, with recent readings having picked up but not yet entering troubling territory. One potential source of concern, however, lies with the Japanese yen, which has remained on a weakening trend since early last year (chart 4). That depreciation has been one of the key arguments underpinning calls for further rate hikes.

260427T4.jpg

The week also brings China’s latest PMIs into focus. March saw a divergence between China’s official PMI readings, which improved, and the unofficial readings from RatingDog, which instead pulled back. Nonetheless, both official and unofficial gauges remained in expansionary territory (chart 5), with investors now watching closely to see whether that resilience can be sustained amid ongoing stresses from the Middle East, or whether offsetting drivers can continue to keep Chinese business sentiment and prospects buoyant.

260427T5.jpg

**Beyond the strait**
Moving beyond the Middle East conflict, a whole host of developments continue to unfold globally, many of which have in fact helped offset some of the pessimism wrought by the Strait’s chokehold. One such development is artificial intelligence (AI), which had dominated headlines before the outbreak of the conflict and continues to advance at breakneck pace. AI capabilities are still rapidly evolving, while practical applications, such as physical AI embodied in humanoid robots, are beginning to show broader and stronger use cases. Production of such robots is also becoming increasingly scalable and within reach not just for industrial complexes and healthcare, but for the mass market as well. It is perhaps growing optimism around these prospects that has helped keep equity valuations buoyant, even in the face of the festering conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, while concerns over AI-driven job displacement persist, new opportunities are emerging as well, particularly for AI adopters, with a growing share of job postings in Western economies increasingly referencing AI-related skills, as shown in chart 6.

260427T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Not Just About the Strait

Robert Brusca

260427E.jpg

**The Distributive Trades Survey**

The U.K. Distributive Trades Survey for April 2026 and the look-ahead expectation readings for May paint an extremely soured outlook for the U.K. economy.

**Retail ranking**: Surveys for retail sales compared to a year ago, orders compared to a year ago, and sales evaluated for the time of year all have rankings near zero, which is the worst result on this timeline. This zero distinction applies to retail sales compared to a year ago. The best ranking is 11.6%; that is for sales evaluated for the time of year. Orders compared to a year ago have a 4.2 percentile standing. The stock-to-sales ratio—which is a completely different concept—shows that the inventory-to-sales ratio has a 29.9 percentile standing.

**Retail diffusion**: The raw April diffusion readings (up minus down diffusion) show that sales compared to a year ago slipped to a reading of -68 in April from -52 in March. Orders fell to -46 in April from -26 in March. Sales evaluated for the time of year fell to -32 April from -23 in March. All three measures weakened, and all three weakened decisively, resulting in extremely weak rankings. All of the rankings are executed on data back to 2002.

**Expectations for retailing**: The expectations readings for May show slippage again across all three metrics: expected sales compared to a year ago, expected orders compared to a year ago, and expected sales for the time of year. Expected sales compared to a year ago fell to -60 in May from -49 in April. Orders compared to a year ago declined to -45 in May from -30 in April, and sales for the time of year slipped to -43 from -19. In May, these readings have rankings in a 0.4 percentile standing for sales compared to a year ago, a 1.8 percentile standing for sales evaluated relative to the time of year, and a 4.6 percentile standing for orders compared to a year ago. These two panels on current and expected retail sales volumes are just simply terrible: weak monthly, weak in ranking terms, and showing slipping momentum.

The distributor trade series also provides data on the wholesale sector. While the wholesale sector is not quite as beat up as the retail sector, it's still extremely weak. There is no cause for any kind of hope that things are getting better based on wholesaling trends.

**Wholesaling**: The wholesale survey for sales compared to a year ago edged lower to -32 in April from -31 in March. Orders compared to a year ago remained at a reading of -41 in April. Sales evaluated for the time of year improved to a reading of -20 in April from -39 in March—a significant step up, but still very weak. The percentile standings for these three categories show sales compared to a year ago at the 8.8 percentile, orders compared to a year ago at the 5.6 percentile, and sales evaluated for the time of year at the 14.8 percentile.

**Wholesale Expectations**: The look-ahead observations, which provide expectations for wholesaling in May, show a similar constellation of readings, with sales compared to a year ago falling to -37 in May from -27 in April and orders compared to a year ago falling to -42 from -38, while sales evaluated for the time of year improved to  16 from  37. That category for wholesale sales improved both in April in real time and in May for expectations; however, it continues to have a very weak percentile standing, at the 17.9 percentile in May, while sales for a year ago have a 6.7 percentile standing and orders for a year ago have a 6.0 percentile standing.

260427.jpg

While some of the global PMI data have improved, these survey data for the U.K. are particularly dour. The war in Ukraine drags on, and there's a new conflict in Iran that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, creating energy problems for much of Europe. More broadly, supply chains have been harmed. In addition, the U.K. is undergoing a bout of political instability, as its Prime Minister is under pressure and a good deal of political uncertainty is being worsened by deteriorating economic performance.

Both the U.K. and the European Monetary Union had been showing some progress on inflation until the Iran war hit. Now, as the oil prices are up so sharply, headline inflation is going to be worse everywhere and there will probably be a bit more attention directed to the core inflation rate. However, the U.K. has had inflation too hot for a while, and it has failed to settle down. At its last meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee warned that if the war was still ongoing at the next meeting, there would be a risk of a rate hike. So, it would seem that a rate hike is going to be in play unless the economy falls off a cliff first, which, based on the distributive trades data, is also something that could happen. The U.K. economy appears to be on very unsound footing, and what happens next is just about anybody's guess.

United Kingdom

U.K. Retail Sales: Worse Than During Covid

260424E.jpg

The onset of the war in Iran appears to have hit the German economy extremely hard as the Ifo survey shows very substantial and broad-based decline across its survey in April. The Ifo survey features readings for five sectors as well as an aggregate reading, and it surveys them for climate, current conditions, and expectations. The decline in the Ifo survey is present for all three concepts and across all five sectors, marking the weakening in April as a highly significant and extremely disturbing development. Only manufacturing in the current conditions survey escapes a month-to-month decline.

**The Ifo sequences**: The **climate** reading fell both overall and across each of the five sectors. **Current conditions** declined for the overall and for four of the five sectors, with manufacturing the sole exception. **Expectations** declined for the overall and for all sectors. Several of the sector declines were for a very substantial magnitude, especially when compared to historic changes in these indexes.

**Monthly changes in readings—severe broad deterioration**
The month-to-month change in the climate reading has weakened more month-to-month 19% of the time. That overall result, however, is boosted by manufacturing where the monthly change has been weaker 35% of the time (on data back to 2011). However, all other sectors have seen climate weaker m/m only 2.3% to 6.3% of the time! The current situation readings weakened, with the headline weakening more m/m 11% of the time. This was boosted by manufacturing, the only sector that improved on the month; its ranking on change was in its 85th percentile—quite good and truly stand-alone good news. The other current changes by sector ranged from construction being weaker 1.7% of the time, to retailing that has been weaker about 30% of the time in terms of m/m changes. Expectation changes were uniformly terrible, with the headline drop weaker only 6.3% of the time and sector change month-to-month weaker between 9% and 1.7% of the time. The monthly weakening was uniform and substantial. I document it with these calculations, but you can also see it on the chart above.

**Climate**: The bottom line is that the all-sector index for climate fell to -20.3 in April from -18 in March, placing it at a 10.5 percentile standing on data since 1993. The sector ranking is the highest for construction with a 42.2 percentile standing and the weakness for services at a 1.1 percentile standing—weaker than the table reading nearly 99% of the time. In terms of percentile standing levels or monthly changes, conditions are closing in on grim.

**Current conditions**: Current conditions saw the all-sector index slip to -5.3 in April from -2.4 in March. The headline ranking stands at a 9.8 percentile mark, making it—like the climate reading—weaker than its current reading only about 10% of the time. The strongest reading under current conditions is for construction which has a 60.6 percentile standing; it is the only ranking in the table above its historic median. Manufacturing, the only sector in the survey that improved month-to-month, has a 22.5 percentile standing, while services record the weakest percentile standing under current conditions, at an 8.4 percentile standing.

**Expectations:** The all-sector index for expectations fell to -25.3 in April from -19.9 in March, placing it at a 6.3 percentile standing. The percentile standings across sectors range from a high of 9.5% for manufacturing to a low of 1.5% for retailing. Up until earlier this year, the Ifo was showing signs of improvement; however, all of that has simply collapsed in the last month. Weakness is across economic concepts and sectors, as documented above. For reference, the table also gives a separate set of rankings on where the various indexes stand since the invasion of Ukraine, since that was another marked event that drove the index, that had been improving after Covid, down to lower levels.  Ranked even on this reduced scale looking at conditions only since the invasion of Ukraine, when conditions have generally been weaker, the current rankings across the Ifo survey remained extremely weak. This is a very disturbing survey for the German economy.

260424.jpg

Germany

German Ifo Plunges Everywhere

Andrew Cates

**Energy shock lifts inflation, trims growth**
The IMF’s latest WEO revisions for 2026 broadly reflect the classic stagflationary impact of the recent Middle East energy shock, with growth downgraded and inflation revised higher across most major economies. Higher energy prices act as a tax on real incomes while simultaneously pushing up costs. That said, the picture is not uniform: a number of economies—notably the US, China and India—have seen growth upgrades, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum so far in 2026. By contrast, the UK stands out at the stagflationary extreme, combining one of the largest growth downgrades with a relatively strong inflation uplift—consistent with its weaker underlying momentum, greater energy sensitivity and more persistent domestic inflation dynamics. More broadly, while the global revisions remain modest—pointing to resilience in activity—the message is that disinflation is no longer a smooth glide back to target but increasingly contingent on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

260423Z1.jpg

**Markets largely shrug off rising economic pessimism**
Notwithstanding a more downbeat assessment from economists—including the IMF’s stagflationary tilt to the outlook—there has been remarkably little follow-through into financial markets. Measures of systemic stress in both the US and UK remain low by historical standards, suggesting that investors are, for now, largely looking through the Middle East conflict. There are several possible explanations: corporate profits remain resilient, the AI-driven investment narrative continues to dominate market thinking, and markets may be assuming that any energy shock will be temporary and contained. In effect, investors appear to be pricing a benign baseline in which geopolitical risks do not materially disrupt growth, inflation expectations or policy. The UK is a partial exception, with a somewhat more visible uptick in stress, which aligns more closely with the IMF’s more challenging growth-inflation trade-off and the economy’s greater sensitivity to energy prices.

260423Z2.jpg

**Volatility falls despite deteriorating growth surprises**
Market optimism is also increasingly at odds with the incoming data flow. Typically, equity volatility declines when growth surprises are positive and inflation surprises are benign. However, the recent pattern has broken that relationship. Growth surprises across the G10 have turned increasingly negative (our series is inverted in the chart below), yet volatility has continued to fall. In other words, markets are becoming less sensitive to weakening macro data, continuing to price a benign outlook even as the data deteriorate. This divergence reinforces the broader theme: investors are, for now, looking through both geopolitical risks and softer economic momentum, placing greater weight on resilience in earnings, the AI-driven narrative and the assumption that policy will remain supportive.

260423Z3.jpg

**Inflation Nowcasts Have Jumped**
Incoming data suggest that headline inflation has moved higher in recent weeks, broadly in line with expectations given the rise in energy prices following the Middle East shock. Nowcasts for CPI across the major economies show a clear rebound in March and April from the lows seen at the start of 2026, with the move occurring in a relatively synchronised fashion. This reinforces the view that the recent pickup in inflation is being driven primarily by a common external factor—energy.

260423Z4.jpg

**Energy shock not yet feeding into underlying inflation**
However, the detailed breakdown of March inflation outcomes suggests that this remains, for now, a largely headline-driven phenomenon. While headline CPI prints were firm across most economies, core inflation—stripping out energy and food—was more subdued and in some cases weaker. This indicates that there has been very limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader goods and services inflation at this early stage. In other words, the shock is still being absorbed rather than propagated. That distinction is critical for policy and markets alike: as long as second-round effects remain contained, central banks may be able to look through the near-term rise in inflation, even as headline rates move higher.

260423Z5.jpg

**Inflation Expectations Rising as Growth Sentiment Falters**
It remains early days, and much will hinge on how inflation expectations evolve from here. The latest ZEW survey for Germany already conveys the hallmarks of a classic stagflationary shock, with macroeconomic expectations weakening even as inflation expectations have ratcheted sharply higher. This shift is important: while the recent rise in headline inflation has so far shown limited pass-through into core, a sustained increase in expectations would raise the risk of second-round effects and make the inflation process more persistent. In that sense, the ZEW data highlight the key fault line in the current environment—whether the energy-driven shock remains contained, or begins to embed itself more broadly through expectations and pricing behaviour.

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Financial markets have remained notably calm in recent weeks despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a more downbeat macroeconomic narrative and elevated uncertainty. Measures of financial stress and volatility remain low, and equity markets continue to look through both the conflict and softer data. That resilience sits alongside a more nuanced macro backdrop. The IMF’s latest WEO revisions point to a classic stagflationary energy shock—growth downgraded and inflation revised higher—although the global impact remains modest and uneven, with some economies still benefiting from stronger momentum (chart 1). At the same time, market pricing appears increasingly detached from the data flow, with volatility declining even as growth surprises have turned more negative relative to inflation (charts 2 and 3). Incoming inflation data reinforce the idea of a largely headline-driven shock, with nowcasts rising in line with higher energy prices but only limited pass-through into core inflation so far (charts 4 and 5). However, it remains early days. Survey evidence, such as the latest ZEW release, suggests that inflation expectations may already be responding in a more concerning way, with a marked rise alongside weakening growth sentiment (chart 6). Taken together, the key question for markets is whether this remains a contained, energy-driven shock that can be looked through—or whether it begins to embed more persistently via expectations, forcing a reassessment of the currently benign outlook.

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Charts of the Week: Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Sandy Batten

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The National Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CFNAI) slipped to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously (-0.11). This is the lowest monthly reading since last November. Smoothing out the monthly volatility, the index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) declined to -0.03 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously -0.01).

This index is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the FRB Chicago indicates that readings on the 3-month average of -0.70 or below are consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, even though the March reading on the 3-month average was negative, it indicates that the US economy is still growing, just slightly slower than trend, and is well away from recessionary conditions. The 3-month average would be much deeper in negative territory if the economy was at risk of contracting.

The National Activity Index is a composite of 85 economic indicators, grouped into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours worked; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.13 in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from +0.05 in February. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from a neutral value in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of the change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. This is the highest reading since February 2025. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. If all of the underlying indicators in a given month are below their long-run averages, the diffusion index will equal -1. If all of the indicators are above their long-run averages, it will equal +1. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- The monthly reading fell to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February.
- The three-month average slipped from +0.03 to -0.03.
- Despite the slip in March, the index points to near-trend economic growth and is well above recession territory.

Economy in Brief

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