Global| Feb 22 2007Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down Less Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 27,000 to 332,000 after a revised 46,000 increase the week prior. The figure fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline to 325,000 claims. During the last ten years there has been a [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 27,000 to 332,000 after a revised 46,000 increase the week prior. The figure fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline to 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The figure covers the survey period for February nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 45,000 (15.7%) from the January period.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 328,000 (11.0% y/y).
A 45,000 drop in continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed most of a revised 65,000 jump the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.
A Currency at Home and Abroad from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/17/07 | 02/10/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 332 | 359 | 14.9% | 313 | 332 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,509 | 0.4% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2007
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in January fell to 32 from an upwardly revised 34 in December.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the three month change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, halved to 39% from an upwardly revised 80% during December. In spite of the latest decline, the three month moving average of the indicator at 53% remained much improved from last year.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available here.
| Conference Board | January | December | January '06 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Help Wanted Index | 32 | 34 | 38 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
