Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221f.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales slipped for the third week in the last four. The 0.1% decline last week lowered sales so far this month to a level that is all of 0.1% ahead of January after the 2.8% gain that month.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell sharply for the third week in the last four, by 1.1% (-0.2% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">2/17/07</th>
<th scope="col">2/10/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>478.1</td>
<td>478.7</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales slipped for the third week in the last four. The 0.1% decline last week lowered sales so far this month to a level that is all of 0.1% [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slipped Again

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

240506A2.jpg

240506C2.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 0.1% (+2.7% y/y) during the four weeks ended May 3, 2024, after exhibiting strength since December. The index remained 20.1 % below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022. During most of that period of time, U.S. factory output has been little changed.

Prices in the miscellaneous group fell 4.9% during the last four weeks and weakened 0.7% y/y. Plywood prices fell 14.4% and by 4.8% y/y. The cost of natural rubber fell 11.2% in four weeks but rose by nearly one-third y/y.

Textile group prices declined 2.5% (-0.7% y/y) in the latest four weeks but had been rising since their low in the second week of November. Cotton prices decreased 15.7% (-9.3% y/y) in the last four weeks but the cost of burlap rose 1.8% (8.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group weakened 2.1% (+6.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 4.2% in four weeks to $81.28 per barrel, up 11.5% y/y. Prices hit a low of $70.42 in the third week of December. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, declined 2.7% (+13.4% y/y) in four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Offsetting these declines, metals group prices increased 9.8% (7.9% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices rose 17.6% (8.7% y/y) while tin prices improved 15.1% in four weeks, up 20.4% y/y. Copper scrap prices increased 10.4% (15.2% y/y) in the last four weeks and aluminum prices improved 9.6%, rising9.0% y/y. Lead prices improved 8.2% (0.9% y/y) in four weeks while the cost of steel scrap rose 0.3% (-4.2% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

240506D2.jpg

240506B2.jpg

- Lumber & rubber costs have fallen sharply. 
- Cotton prices show protracted decline. 
- Crude oil prices weaken for three weeks.
- Metals price increase, paced by zinc and tin.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Slip in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

240506E.jpg

April readings for the S&P total or composite PMI survey show mixed performance in April with more countries showing deterioration month-to-month than showing improvement, but with the average reading in April higher than the average reading in March. That makes it a bit of a standoff in terms of trying to assess the performance of the survey. More countries are doing worse but on average countries are doing better.

These tendencies are provided without any weighting for the country’s GDP size; that's another caveat. Looking at the United States, the European Monetary Union, and the EMU’s four largest members as though they are all separate and independent observations (which they are not) shows two worsening was in April with the same relative results in March; February shows only one worsening and five improving.  Those are certainly good statistics and good news since these are large economies carrying a large weight in terms of their contribution to world output.

In Asia, Japan, and China show different performance with China improving month-to-month in February, March, and April but with Japan worsening month-to-month in April and February but improving in March.

Turning to sequential data that look at averages and changes over three months, six months and 12 months, we find the highly developed European and the U.S. readings all improving over three months; however, four of six of those readings deteriorate over six months compared to 12 months. Three deteriorate and three improve on balance over 12 months compared to the average ending 12 months ago.

We also assess the performance of these countries by looking at their PMIs in a queue of ranked data since January 2020. In that queue, Italy and Spain have 70th percentile standings, above their historic medians (medians occur at a ranking of 50%) along with the European Monetary Union with a 53.1 percentile ranking. However, the United States has a 36.7 percentile ranking, Germany, a 40.8 percentile ranking, and France, a 46.9 percentile ranking; that leaves us with three readings above their median and three below for the full period assessment.

Over the entire sample, the averages from February to March to April cluster in a very tight range from 52.0 to 52.5; the median lies in a range of 51.3 to 52.7. Over those three months, there are 4 of the countries in the survey below a reading of 50 which means they're contracting in April. Six are contracting, in March and six are contracting in February. The averaged data show improvements from three-, six-, and 12-months. On those metrics, nine countries contract over three months, 11 contract over six months, and 11 contract over 12 months.

Turning to statistics on acceleration, we find that 52% of countries are slowing in April but only 44% in March and only 32% in February. The averages are fairly stable; there are deteriorating circumstances in terms of the proportion of countries showing readings below the month before and on a month-to-month basis. Looking at the sequential data for three months compared to six-months, six months compared to 12 months, and 12 months compared to 12-months ago, the percentage of countries slowing steadily diminishes from nearly 70% over 12 months to 56.5% over six months to 30.4% over three months. The broad picture shows less slowing while the monthly picture shows that there may be more slowing creeping into the process.

The average queue standing, which positions these countries in their queue of data since January 2020, is at 51.6%. Across our sample of 25 countries, 12 of them show readings below their respective 50th percentile rankings. This gives us a sense that across the sample based on the ranking data and the average of the PMI data statistics are hovering close to the median for the period. However, this is comparison over a four-year period that has seen a good deal of contraction in play.

240506.jpg

On balance, the sense of improvement in this sample is not very strong. There is some progress evident; however, there's still obviously widespread weakness that permeates this system so it's hard to look at the month's data as anything special based upon the composite PMIs. Services sectors show a moderate trend for improvement monthly although stability across the averages from three-, to six-, to 12-months is most evident for services. The services queue percentiles are still relatively robust with an average standing in their 65th percentile. Manufacturing sectors are generally doing worse with an average percentile standing at their 47th percentile, below their medians and with a median diffusion reading slightly below fifty at 49.8 in April.

Goods and services sectors continue to perform in different fashion; the goods sector, the internationally traded sector, continues to be under more pressure. Of course, inflation statistics have improved but if the U.S. is setting the lead for inflation performance, that performance has stalled and there's evidence of inflation progress slowing in other places. This will be something that we will want to watch because it will bear importantly on how central banks perform and what they do in the future.

PMI Composite Readings Improve Slightly Amid Cross-currents

240503A4.jpg

240503B4.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 175,000 (1.8% y/y) in April after rising 315,000 in March, revised from 303,000, and 236,000 in February, revised from 270,000. Expectations had been for a 250,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 242,000 is the slowest since December of	 last year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.3% March gain and a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. The 3.9% y/y earnings increase remains below the 5.9% high in March 2022. It is the weakest rise since June 2021.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, rose to 3.9% and reversed its decline to 3.8% in March. An unchanged 3.8% had been expected. Household employment rose 25,000 after increasing 498,000 in March. The labor force rose 87,000 after a 469,000 March gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons edged up to 7.4%. It was the highest rate since November 2021.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 167,000 (1.7% y/y) in April after rising 243,000 in March. Construction sector employment increased 9,000 (3.3% y/y) last month following a 40,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs rose 8,000 (0.1% y/y) after falling 4,000. Mining & logging sector jobs fell 3,000 (+0.3% y/y) during April after rising 3,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment improved 153,000 in April (1.7% y/y) after a 204,000 March rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health service jobs rose 95,000 (4.3% y/y) after rising 88,000 in March while leisure & hospitality employment rose 5,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 53,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 52,000 (0.7% y/y) after rising 31,000 while financial activities jobs rose 6,000 (0.5% y/y) after rising 5,000 in March. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-1.4% y/y) following a 4,000 gain and professional & business service jobs decreased 4,000 (0.5% y/y) after a 10,000 March rise. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 16,400 (-6.0% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high.

Government sector payrolls improved a negligible 8,000 last month (2.8% y/y) after increasing 72,000 in March. Local government jobs held steady (2.4% y/y) after rising 51,000 in March and state government employment rose 6,000 (3.7% y/y) after an 11,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs increased 2,000 (2.9% y/y) following a 10,000 rise.

The 0.2% rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.2% gain (5.1% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which followed a 0.6% improvement in March. Earnings in construction strengthened 0.6% (5.2% y/y) while factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% last month (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Information sector earnings edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% improvement. Financial sector earnings increased 0.4% (6.0% y/y) for the third straight month. Private education & health services earnings rose slightly (2.8% y/y) after holding steady in March. Trade, transportation and utilities pay rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in April after a 0.2% rise.

240503C4.jpg

240503D4.jpg

The length of the average workweek in the private sector eased to 34.3 hours in April after rising to 34.4 hours in March. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours, down from a five-month high of 39.9 hours in March. The construction sector average workweek fell to 38.7 hours from 39.3. The factory sector workweek held steady at 40.0 hours for the third straight month while the average workweek in the private service sector was 33.3 hours, also for the third consecutive month. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, eased 0.1% in April (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in both of the prior two months.

In the **household survey**, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% as the size of the labor force rose more quickly than employment. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers declined to 37.6%, while for individuals aged 20-24 it rose to 72.4%. For rate for workers aged 25-54, it edged higher to 83.5% but for workers 55 and over, it fell slightly to 38.4 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 60.2% in April, standing slightly below where it was twelve months earlier. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

240503X4.jpg

240503F4.jpg

- Job increase slows to weakest in just over one year.
- Earnings increase moderates.
- Jobless rate moves up as employment increase is negligible.

U.S. Payroll Employment & Wage Growth Moderate in April; Jobless Rate Edges Up

Andrew Cates

**Consensus interest rate forecasts**
Despite heightened concerns about the potential for lower US interest rates in the coming months, recent forecasts still show a broad consensus that an easing cycle will unfold in the period ahead across most major economies. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, for instance, indicates that policy rate reductions of approximately 100 basis points are anticipated from the Fed over the next 12 months. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to implement cumulative cuts of 166 and 111 basis points, respectively, during the same timeframe. In contrast, Japan is expected to see further rate hikes, specifically an increase of 17 basis points over the year ahead.

240502Z1.jpg

**US data surprises and 2 year bond yields**
The anxiety in financial markets about the Fed’s scope to lower interest rates can be largely traced to the US economy’s resilience – and its tight labour market in particular – together with sticky inflation. The former, however, namely economic resilience, has arguably being challenged in recent days by some, though by no means all, US data releases. These include, for example, a weaker-than expected consumer confidence report and ISM survey of manufacturing. Citigroup’s US growth surprise index has, against that backdrop, turned sharply lower.

240502Z2.jpg

**US and euro area data surprises versus the euro**
A corresponding trend has also unfolded in the FX market. While US data have been a little more disappointing this contrasts with euro area data, which have been more resilient. Yet, thanks to still-firm US/Europe yield differentials, the US dollar has remained fairly resilient versus the euro (see chart 3).

240502Z3.jpg

**Japan’s economy**
This week’s disappointing retail sales data from Japan could call into question the scope for further policy rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the coming months. Retail sales specifically slowed to 1.2% y/y in March from 4.7% in February. That slowdown, moreover, was broadly-based, with reduced sales activity seen across various product categories.

240502Z4.jpg

**Airport traffic in China**
The latest monthly dataflow from China have been a little more upbeat but that was not the message from this week’s official PMI surveys for April. Other less widely monitored data are also yielding sobering messages about the current economic environment. For instance, while aircraft movements at Beijing Airport have risen from their low points, they still remain well below pre-COVID pandemic levels (see chart 5). Similarly, specific data on cargo volumes and passenger traffic lead to the same conclusion.

240502Z5.jpg

**Global warming and water levels**
Finally, on more structural matters, climate change continues to generate profound shifts in the economic landscape, influencing everything from agricultural productivity to energy markets and global supply chains. One manifestation of these shifts is low water levels in many areas and for example, in the Panama Canal. More specifically Gatun Lake has seen prolonged drought conditions, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon and broader climate change anomalies. The drought has resulted in lower-than-average rainfall and delayed rainy seasons, leading to reduced water availability not only for canal operations but also for over half of Panama's population relying on this water source. To that supply chain point above, the canal has also had to reduce the number of ships it can accommodate per day.

240502Z6.jpg

Lingering concerns about the US Fed's inclination to lower interest rates in coming months have continued to unsettle financial markets over the past few days. That said, comments from Fed Chair Powell after this week’s FOMC meeting have calmed some of those nerves. In our charts this week we delve into the latest Blue Chip consensus on policy rates across the world’s major economies (chart 1). We also compare market expectations for US policy rates, inferred from 2-year Treasury yields, with a trend toward more negative US data surprises in recent days (chart 2). In addition we contrast that more negative US growth trend with the relative resilience of the euro area dataflow and some recent downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate (chart 3). Turning to Asia, we assess Japan's economy with a focus on some recent disappointing retail sales data (chart 4), and provide insights into China's economic activity through aircraft movements at Beijing Airport (chart 5). Finally, and with a nod to climate change and its impact, we look at reduced water levels on the Panama Canal and how these contrast with above-average land and sea temperatures over the past few years (chart 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/1UGzrkribMM4URLI6yDhWG?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slipped Again

Summary

Tom Moeller

More Economy in Brief

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Slip in Latest Four Weeks

PMI Composite Readings Improve Slightly Amid Cross-currents

U.S. Payroll Employment & Wage Growth Moderate in April; Jobless Rate Edges Up

Charts of the Week: Policy Surprises Versus Data Surprises