The OECD trend restored leading indicators show a clear deceleration across major areas and countries. Despite this ongoing slowdown Central banks across the region generally are fighting inflation and seem to see it as a still- [...]
Global| Apr 06 2007OECD LEIs Point to Slowdown/Moderation
- Global| Apr 06 2007
Payrolls Gain 180,000, Unemployment Eases to 4.4%; New Data on All-Employee Earnings
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 180,000, beating out forecasts around 130,000; the prior two months' gains were revised upward once again, this time by a collective 32,000. See the third paragraph for more on these revisions. The [...]
- Global| Apr 06 2007
Payrolls Gain 180,000, Unemployment Eases to 4.4%; New Data on All-Employee Earnings
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 180,000, beating out forecasts around 130,000; the prior two months' gains were revised upward once again, this time by a collective 32,000. See the third paragraph for more on these revisions. The [...]
- Global| Apr 05 2007
UK House Prices Up 11% in March; Increase Is Especially Large in Northern Ireland
House prices are strong in the UK. Today's Halifax [HBOS] data show an 11.2% advance for March over a year ago, with a 1.1% rise in March alone. Both new and existing homes are experiencing the same general pattern, with new houses [...]
- Global| Apr 05 2007
UK House Prices Up 11% in March; Increase Is Especially Large in Northern Ireland
House prices are strong in the UK. Today's Halifax [HBOS] data show an 11.2% advance for March over a year ago, with a 1.1% rise in March alone. Both new and existing homes are experiencing the same general pattern, with new houses [...]
- Global| Apr 04 2007
India Balance of Payments Sees Dynamic Trade and Investment Flows, with Record Reserve Accumulation in 2006
India's balance of payments shows an unusual amount of two-way flow in both current and financial accounts. In Q4 2006 this encompassed a variety of distinctive movements. The trade deficit widened, continuing to confound many [...]
- Global| Apr 04 2007
U.S. Factory Orders Continue to Disappoint
Each month the factory order report is a re-issue of durable goods from the week before with (usually) minor revisions plus a new look at nondurable goods shipments and inventories. This month the durable goods order gain was trimmed from a small rise of 2.5% to an even tinier rise of 1.7% for February following a plunge in January. The new data for February are for nondurable goods. Orders there rose by a meager 0.2% in the month. Over three months they are weak with shipments dropping by 1%. But the good news is that progress on inventory reduction is in train as inventories dropped by 4.4% in February.
The overall trends for the factory sector cut into three month blocks shows some revival in shipments compared to past trends. And there is a relatively sharp fall off in (still high) unfilled orders. Inventories are undergoing a gradual slowing in their build up. New orders continue to drop and at a slightly accelerated pace.
Sector detail for nondurables shows a lot of weakness. Beverages are weak as are the Textile Mill and Product sectors. For Textiles inventory reduction is being achieved at a very rapid pace. Apparel has just turned positive and Leather Goods shows considerable strength. Paper Products and Printing are weak with shipments declining. Petroleum & Coal and Plastics & Rubber also are seeing shipment declines. Basic Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals & Medicines have turned sharply positive.These are the readings that are new in the day’s report. They are hardly encouraging.
Factory OrdersFactory Orders 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -3.5% -9.4% -5.6% -1.0% 6.6% New Orders -9.0% -7.8% -4.9% -0.8% 7.1% Unfilled Orders 14.5% 23.6% 20.3% 20.8% 17.0% Inventories 1.0% 2.8% 5.0% 6.4% 2.5% Nondurable goods 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -1.0% -11.8% -7.8% -1.3% 5.0% Inventories -4.4% -3.3% 0.2% 2.2% 4.0% Nondurable Goods: Orders and Inventories by Industry Food Products 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments 1.7% 1.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% Inventories -0.9% 6.3% 6.3% 4.5% 4.3% Beverages 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -20.7% -12.9% -7.4% 0.1% 7.4% Inventories 3.0% 3.2% 1.3% -0.7% 4.2% Textile Mills 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -3.6% -2.4% -3.0% -3.1% -12.6% Inventories -25.3% -16.2% -8.1% -8.8% -7.9% Textile Products 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -4.1% -8.6% -11.9% -8.5% 3.9% Inventories -11.6% -9.2% -1.3% -2.6% -0.6% Apparel 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments 0.8% 3.7% -8.6% -1.9% 8.0% Inventories 7.4% -22.6% -12.4% -9.2% -1.1% Leather & Allied Products 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments 105.8% 14.9% 16.7% 10.1% -2.9% Inventories 23.4% 7.4% 15.1% 11.9% -9.0% Paper Products 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -2.6% -5.5% -5.3% -1.5% 1.1% Inventories 5.8% 2.9% 0.4% 1.9% -1.9% Printing 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -7.0% 0.4% 1.1% 3.5% -3.1% Inventories -15.8% -16.6% -2.0% 0.7% -2.1% Petroleum&Coal 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -1.3% -32.7% -23.7% -5.3% 17.2% Inventories -15.5% -30.4% -19.2% 4.5% 16.3% Basic Chemicals 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments 4.7% -10.3% -5.9% 0.2% 4.0% Inventories -0.4% -1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.9% Pharmaceuticals & Medicine 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments 19.6% -6.5% -6.8% 6.3% -1.0% Inventories -7.4% -1.1% 5.5% 11.0% -4.6% Plastics & Rubber Products 3Mo 6Mo 9Mo 12Mo Year Ago Shipments -6.6% -12.5% -7.0% -3.7% 7.0% Inventories 6.5% 5.0% 1.0% 0.7% 4.6% - Global| Apr 04 2007
Nonmanufacturing ISM: Sharp Two-Month Drop Off
ISM trends show a weakening trend in the services-mining-construction sector of the economy to add to the lethargy in manufacturing. The past two months show that the index has dropped to a much lower profile than before. This is the weakest activity recorded since early 2003. Employment trend has been ground into a lower profile as well. The results are disconcerting although it may be that ongoing construction problems are weighing on the index and services are not as weak as the index suggests.
An analysis of the position of the various ISM components in their respective ranges shows that weakness characterizes this sector. Both activity and orders are below their range midpoints and below their period average values. Order backlogs continue to appear strong as an offset, as we have seen in durable goods order report. Unlike the ISM manufacturing we see that export and import services are weak. For manufacturing these two series were quite firm. Price readings rose in the month and remain firm in their historic range. On balance, the nonmanufacturing sector does not appear to be as strong or supportive of the economy as it once was. It raises the question of whether the weakness in manufacturing and construction industries has ground down the once vibrant services sector that is nested within the nonmanufacturing ISM.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Statistics from January 1998 to DateISM-NMFG Current Std Dev Average SD %Avg MAX MIN Range Percentile % of AVG PM Activity 52.4 4.7 57.5 8.2 67.9 40.5 27.4 43.4 91 New Orders 53.8 4.7 57.2 8.2 66.9 41.3 25.6 48.8 94 Backlogs 52.5 3.7 51.0 7.2 57.0 40.5 16.5 72.7 103 Supplier Deliveries 50.0 2.1 53.6 4.0 60.5 48.0 12.5 16.0 93 Inventory Sentiment 63.0 2.7 63.1 4.3 69.0 55.0 14.0 57.1 100 Inventories 52.0 3.2 50.5 6.2 59.0 43.5 15.5 54.8 103 Prices 63.3 8.3 59.8 13.9 80.5 41.3 39.2 56.1 106 Employment 50.8 3.7 51.7 7.1 59.9 43.9 16.0 43.1 98 Export Orders 48.5 4.5 54.8 8.3 64.0 44.5 19.5 20.5 89 Import Orders 50.0 4.0 54.7 7.4 63.5 45.5 18.0 25.0 91
- of2712Go to 2239 page