Economy in Brief: 2018

The employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (2.8% y/y) in the third quarter of 2018, up from a 0.6% q/q rise in the second. Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.7% q/q increase. Employment costs in the [...]

Consumer confidence during October improved to the highest level since September 2000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 1.9% (9.3% y/y) to 137.9 from 135.3 in September, initially reported as 138.4. The October [...]

Japan's trade deficit widened in September. This makes three deficits in a row and four deficits in the past five months. Japan's trade situation is not helping to support domestic growth. Exports are up by 1.2% over 12 months and are [...]

Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index rose to 29.4 during October and recovered most of its September decline. Nevertheless, the index has moved [...]

Even Japan’s three-month growth rate series shows exceptionally choppy retail sales performance (see Chart). Year-over-year sales creep higher. Six-month trends show robust gains. The truth of trend lies buried somewhere in these very [...]

Personal income rose 0.2% (4.4% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August increase, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% gain was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Leading last month's weaker rise was proprietors' income [...]

No, science fiction has not come to economics. The earth is not standing still; it just seems so to some... Over the last four months back to August, German economic climate has hardly changed. Confidence in Italy is stuck for the [...]