Global| Oct 30 2018U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the [...]
Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation in prices. The seasonally-adjusted gasoline price was unchanged at $2.84 per gallon.
Also declining last week were West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to $67.50 per barrel (+23.4% y/y) from $70.27 in the prior week. It was the third consecutive week of decline from the peak of $75.11 early in October and the lowest price since mid-August. Yesterday, the price eased to $67.04. Brent crude oil prices declined to $78.23 per barrel (+33.5% y/y) last week from $80.41. The price was $77.56 yesterday.
Natural gas prices rose last week to $3.31/mmbtu (14.5% y/y) and recovered the prior week's decline. Prices remained up from the low of $2.52 in February. The price was $3.20 yesterday.
During the latest four weeks, gasoline demand fell 1.3% y/y; total petroleum product demand rose 3.6% y/y. Gasoline inventories strengthened 5.7% y/y, but inventories of all petroleum products declined 1.6% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries rose 2.6% y/y in the last four weeks.
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 10/29/18 | 10/22/18 | 10/15/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular, Monday Price) | 2.81 | 2.84 | 2.88 | 13.0 | 2.47 | 2.31 | 2.03 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl, Previous Week's Average) | 67.50 | 70.27 | 72.95 | 23.4 | 50.87 | 43.22 | 48.90 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous Week's Average) | 3.31 | 3.26 | 3.30 | 14.5 | 2.96 | 2.49 | 2.62 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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