Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109a.jpg" width="353">
The October Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 0.6%, reversed some of the prior month&#39;s 1.6% rise and continued the sideways trend of 2004.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell sharply to 30%, the lowest since June, and the percentage of firms reporting that now is a good time to expand fell to 20%, a figure well off the highs of 24-25. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109b.jpg" width="353">
Despite the lost enthusiasm, the percent of firms planning to raise employment firmed slightly and the percentage of firms with one or more jobs open rose to the highest since July (23%). During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between these hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose slightly to 20%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM"> Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col"> Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>103.9</td>
<td>104.5</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>101.2</td>
<td>98.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The October Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 0.6%, reversed some of the prior month's 1.6% rise and continued the sideways trend of 2004. During the last ten years [...]

Small Business Optimism Backpedaled

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109a.jpg" width="353">
The October Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 0.6%, reversed some of the prior month&#39;s 1.6% rise and continued the sideways trend of 2004.
During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell sharply to 30%, the lowest since June, and the percentage of firms reporting that now is a good time to expand fell to 20%, a figure well off the highs of 24-25. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109b.jpg" width="353">
Despite the lost enthusiasm, the percent of firms planning to raise employment firmed slightly and the percentage of firms with one or more jobs open rose to the highest since July (23%). During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between these hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose slightly to 20%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM"> Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col"> Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>103.9</td>
<td>104.5</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>101.2</td>
<td>98.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
US Consumers Went Shopping At Chain Stores 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 9, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109c.jpg" width="353">
Last week, chain store sales jumped by 1.3% as consumer spending emerged from a three week skid which had pulled the October average 0.1% below September, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The weekly increase was the largest since a 1.5% pop in late April and started the month 0.7% ahead of October.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
Last week&#39;s sales increase was preceded by a 1.1% w/w increase in the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM"> ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/06/04</th>
<th scope="col">10/30/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>438.0</td>
<td>432.4</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041109d.jpg" width="353">
Japan and Taiwan have reported October data on reserves of foreign currencies. Although they were about 35% and 20%, respectively, above the year ago figure, the increases in foreign exchange reserves over year ago figures have been declining sharply. Part of the reason for the deceleration is the decline in the dollar. The attached chart shows the year over year increases in Japan&#39;s foreign exchange holdings along with the index of the trade weighted dollar.
The effect of the decline in the dollar on foreign reserve holdings is beginning to be a cause of concern not only for the foreign governments but also for the United States. The capital loss entailed in the decline in the value of their dollar holdings has tended to dampen the rate at which foreigners are adding to their holdings of US dollars. The decline in dollar purchases by foreign central banks, in turn, results in a reduced capital inflow into the U. S. a flow that has been an important offset to the growing current account deficit.
The problem is one essentially for Asia where the greatest accumulation of foreign currency reserves has occurred. At the end of last year, the foreign exchange reserves of Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand amounted to $1.2 trillion compared with $223 billion held by the Euro Zone.
A recent article, <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci10-10.pdf">Reserve Accumulation: Implications for Global Capital Flows and Financial Markets</a> by Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard of the NY Fed deals with this subject in some detail. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Foreign Currency Reserves&nbsp; (Billions of US dollars)</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 04</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 04</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp; 04</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &nbsp;03</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 03</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 03&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Japan</td>
<td>817.7</td>
<td>811.2</td>
<td>808.4</td>
<td>605.7</td>
<td>584.1</td>
<td>535.5</td>
<td>35.0</td>
<td>28.87</td>
<td>51.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Taiwan</td>
<td>235.0</td>
<td>233.0</td>
<td>231.6</td>
<td>196.6</td>
<td>190.6</td>
<td>185.7</td>
<td>19.54</td>
<td>22.27</td>
<td>24.74</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Sep &nbsp;04</td>
<td>Aug&nbsp; 04</td>
<td>Jul&nbsp; 04</td>
<td>Sep&nbsp; 03</td>
<td>Aug 03&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul &nbsp;03</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp; %</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp; %</td>
<td>Y/Y &nbsp;%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Korea&nbsp;</td>
<td>173.6</td>
<td>169.7</td>
<td>167.1</td>
<td>140.7</td>
<td>135.41</td>
<td>132.1</td>
<td>23.34</td>
<td>25.27</td>
<td>26.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">India</td>
<td>114.1</td>
<td>112.7</td>
<td>113.0</td>
<td>87.2</td>
<td>82.6</td>
<td>80.9</td>
<td>30.81</td>
<td>36.42</td>
<td>39.55</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Euro area</td>
<td>207.2</td>
<td>205.4</td>
<td>209.0</td>
<td>234.0</td>
<td>230.1</td>
<td>231.5</td>
<td>-11.54</td>
<td>-10.74</td>
<td>-9.73</td>
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Japan and Taiwan have reported October data on reserves of foreign currencies. Although they were about 35% and 20%, respectively, above the year ago figure, the increases in foreign exchange reserves over year ago figures have been [...]

US Dollar Decline Beginning to Affect Foreign Exchange Reserves

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041108a.jpg" width="353">
The 0.1% decline in the September Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries left the series at the same level it reached in February and the monthly gyration around that level has been minimal. The six-month growth rate fell to 1.2% from 7.8% during the period.
Weakness in the leaders for the United States has been most notable this year, though positive economic growth still is suggested. Six-month growth in the US leaders fell to 1.1% versus 11.6% in January as a result of lower business &amp; consumer sentiment and a tighter yield curve. The leading index in Japan also weakened with six-month growth falling to 0.4% from 3.5% in January.
The leading index growth rate for the European Union fell to 2.7% from 6.2% in January. Growth in the German leaders fell to 3.1% in September versus 8.3% in January. The French leading index growth rate remained relatively firm decelerating only to 5.1% versus 8.2% at the start of the year. Leaders in Italy stabilized during the last two months after earlier declines but six-month growth in the series nevertheless went negative at -0.2% versus +2.1% in January. The UK leaders also stabilized in August &amp; September and the six month growth rate returned to positive territory at 0.5%.
In Canada the leaders went negative for the first time since June 2003. The -1.1% growth rate was due mostly to the factors that pulled the US index down.
Visit the OECD at this <a href="http://www.oecd.org/home/">website</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM"> OECD Main Economic Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Sept</th>
<th scope="col"> Aug</th>
<th scope="col"> 6-Mth Chg</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored)</td>
<td>102.3</td>
<td>102.4</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; European Union</td>
<td>106.1</td>
<td>105.7</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Japan</td>
<td>98.1</td>
<td>97.9</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; United States</td>
<td>102.6</td>
<td>103.1</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
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</tbody>
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The 0.1% decline in the September Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries left the series at the same level it reached in February and the monthly gyration around that level has been minimal. The six-month [...]

OECD Leaders Continued Sideways

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041105c.jpg" width="353">
Employment in Canada, measured by the Statistics Canada labor force survey, showed a second consecutive monthly advance in October, up 34,300 after September&#39;s 43,200 increase. The number of workers had been basically flat across the summer. The 12-month trend is running just below 2%, similar to the expansion during 2003 and 2002.
By industry, the October employment gain was more than accounted for by a 45,000 increase in the trade sector. The number of construction workers also increased and has been on a notable uptrend for about the last six years. Workers in the finance sector decreased in October, but they too have been on a sustained, marked uptrend; this began in early 2002. Manufacturing employment has maintained an oscillating pattern for about five years.
Canada&#39;s unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1% in October, extending a gentle downward drift from a recent peak of 8.0% in August 2003. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041105d.jpg" width="353">
Labor force participation in Canada has been largely rangebound over the last two years, with the rate for young people (ages 15-24) virtually flat at about 67%, and that for middle-range workers (ages 25-55) edging down slightly to 86.3% in October. However, older workers appear to be staying active longer. The participation rate for workers over 55 reached 30.8% in October, up 0.6 percentage point in the last 12 months and up 7.2 points since its low in October 1996. <a name="content"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Monthly Amounts in Thousands</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &nbsp;2004</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Aug &nbsp;2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>16,111</td>
<td>16,076</td>
<td>16,033</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo Change</td>
<td>+34</td>
<td>+43</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Goods-Producing</td>
<td>4,044</td>
<td>4,039</td>
<td>4,060</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo Change</td>
<td>+5</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Service-Producing</td>
<td>12,067</td>
<td>12,037</td>
<td>11,973</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo Change</td>
<td>+30</td>
<td>+64</td>
<td>-0</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Employment in Canada, measured by the Statistics Canada labor force survey, showed a second consecutive monthly advance in October, up 34,300 after September's 43,200 increase. The number of workers had been basically flat across the [...]

Employment Gains in Canada, Too; Unemployment Rate Stays Flat

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041105a.jpg" width="353">
Nonfarm payrolls grew 337,000 last month following upwardly revised gains of 139,000 and 198,000 during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 job rise in October.
Construction sector jobs grew 71,000 (3.9% y/y).
Hiring in private service producing industries also was quite strong, up 231,000 (1.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised September increase of 99,000. Hiring in professional &amp; business services rose 97,000 (3.7% y/y) with temporary help services jobs up 47,600 (11.5% y/y). Jobs in the financial sector rose another 17,000 m/m (1.3% y/y) and education &amp; health services jobs rose 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Government payrolls grew 41,000 (0.7% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls fell for the second consecutive month, down 5,000 (+0.3% y/y). Weakness was broad based across industries.
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in September. The index began the fourth quarter 2.0% (AR) above the prior quarter after 3.1% growth in 3Q.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041105b.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate from the separate household survey rose to 5.5% as a 298,000 (1.2% y/y) gain in employment lagged labor force growth of 367,000 (0.7% y/y). The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 65.9%. <a name="content"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM"> Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col"> Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>337,000</td>
<td>139,000</td>
<td>198,000</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Reported last month</td>
<td></td>
<td> 96,000</td>
<td> 128,000</td>
<td> 1.3%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-5,000</td>
<td>-14,000</td>
<td>14,000</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>34.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Nonfarm payrolls grew 337,000 last month following upwardly revised gains of 139,000 and 198,000 during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 job rise in October. Construction sector jobs grew 71,000 [...]

U.S. Job Growth Strong, Revisions Positive

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 1.7% during the last four weeks, after easing 0.4% in the prior four weeks. Together, these declines left prices unchanged during the last twelve months. During July, factory sector production rose an improved 1.4% y/y.

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group costs led the overall price weakening as they moved 3.3% lower (-12.6% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 5.0% to $62.94 per barrel and remained 14.7% lower y/y. It had fallen to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 7.0% (-32.3% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index weakened 1.5% (+1.0% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Lower **Miscellaneous** group prices followed with a 2.9% weakening in the latest four week period, but prices remained up 4.0% y/y. Lumber prices fell 9.9% (+15.2% y/y) during the last four weeks. Natural rubber prices also were fairly weak as they fell 6.9% (-11.5% y/y) in four weeks. Working higher, tallow costs (used in the soap industry) improved 0.6% (32.9% y/y) over the last four weeks.

**Metals** group prices fell 1.2% (+1.1% y/y) over four weeks. Lead prices declined 2.6% (-4.3% y/y) while copper scrap prices weakened 1.6% (+5.9% y/y). Aluminum prices were off 1.5% in four weeks (+7.5% y/y), and the cost of zinc declined 1.4% (+0.5% y/y). Tin prices eased 0.4% (+4.4% y/y), but steel scrap costs edged 0.2% higher (-6.7% y/y) over four weeks.

Prices in the **Textile** group moved 0.3% higher (2.0% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs improved 3.9% (15.9% y/y), but cotton prices fell 0.9% (+2.3% y/y) in four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

**Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review** is the title of today’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, and it can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm).

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- Decline reverses earlier strength.
- Crude oil costs lead the weakening.
- Lumber & metals prices follow, but textile costs rise.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Sharply in Latest Four Weeks

Andrew Cates

**The US housing market**
This first chart below highlights the growing downside risks to the US economic outlook stemming from the housing market. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index has slowed sharply from the pandemic-era surge, while the NAHB (National Association of Homebuilders) housing market index has weakened to levels historically associated with falling home prices. Housing matters because it is not just a cyclical sector but also a key transmission channel for the broader economy: consumer confidence, household balance sheets and credit conditions are all heavily influenced by shifts in the housing market.

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**China’s economy**
The latest run of data from China has also reinforced downside risks for the broader world economy. As the Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices show below, China-specific data have more consistently undershot expectations in recent days. China’s July releases in particular disappointed: retail sales growth slowed to just 3.7% y/y, with weakness in autos and furniture hinting that earlier policy-driven boosts are fading. Industrial output and fixed-asset investment also came in below consensus, while property prices continued to fall and retail sector investment contracted by double digits. Even the labour market showed strain, with unemployment edging higher. The worry is not just China’s slowdown in isolation, but the spillovers. Softer Chinese demand feeds directly into global supply chains, commodity markets, and regional trade partners. Combined with tariff and non-tariff headwinds from the US, the risk is that China’s structural challenges spill into weaker global growth momentum.

250821Z2.jpg

**UK inflation** 
Persistently high services inflation remains one of the biggest headaches for UK monetary policy - and the UK is far from unique in that regard. Services are wage- and demand-sensitive, and their stickiness complicates the calibration of monetary policy even as broader disinflation takes hold. This week’s July upside surprise to UK services inflation was driven in no small part by airfares, which spiked 30% month-on-month – the largest July rise on record. While such volatility may prove temporary, it nonetheless lifted year-on-year services inflation to 5.0%, well above comfort levels. Still, the offsets are important: stripping out airfares and other volatile components, underlying services momentum appears to have eased, while broader data on wages, employment, and activity point to cooling demand. Nevertheless, this tension – headline stickiness versus softer underlying trends – underscores why the Bank of England is treading carefully.

250821Z3.jpg

**Inflation expectations and energy**
US medium-term inflation expectations have been unusually decoupling from oil prices in recent weeks. Normally, falling oil prices would help anchor breakevens, yet the 5-year forward inflation rate has edged higher of late even as WTI has slipped. This probably reflects US tariff policies that are shifting inflation dynamics away from energy and toward trade-related costs. At the same time, a weaker dollar has lifted imported prices, and the upward creep in expectations suggests markets may be more actively questioning whether the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance is sufficient to contain medium-term inflation risks.

250821Z4.jpg

**Clean energy**
Pivoting to more structural issues, the stark divergence between the global clean energy equity market index and the broader S&P 500 underlines the mounting challenges facing the renewables sector at present. While US equities have pushed to record highs, clean energy stocks have languished, weighed down by policy uncertainty, higher financing costs, and a more sceptical public mood. In the US, shifting political winds and uneven implementation of green subsidies have clouded the outlook for investment, while globally, resistance to renewables has grown as consumers and businesses grapple with high energy bills. Rising interest rates have further undermined the economics of capital-intensive clean energy projects, eroding returns and delaying investment pipelines. At the same time, bottlenecks in transmission infrastructure, permitting delays, and questions over the pace of the net-zero transition have all dented confidence. The result is a sector underperforming dramatically even as the urgency of the climate challenge grows.

250821Z5.jpg

**Renewables versus non-renewables**
Global energy consumption data show how limited—and in some respects, stalled—the transition away from fossil fuels has become. Oil, gas, and coal still dominate the energy mix, with shares that have proven remarkably resilient over the past several years. In fact, coal use has ticked higher of late as countries turned back to cheaper, more secure supplies amid energy price spikes and supply disruptions. While renewables have grown rapidly in percentage terms, their absolute contribution remains small compared with the scale of fossil fuel demand. Nuclear and hydro have also struggled to gain ground, leaving the overall mix looking more like a story of continuity than transformation. The result is a global transition that has not just slowed but, in key areas, has partially reversed—highlighting the gulf between climate ambitions and energy realities.

250821Z6.jpg

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In the US, housing indicators are flashing warnings about household balance sheets and credit channels (chart 1), while China’s latest data—covering retail sales, industrial output, and property—underscore persistent weakness (chart 2). In the UK, this week’s data showing sticky services inflation is complicating the Bank of England’s easing path (chat 3), while back in the US, medium-term inflation expectations have been rising despite softer oil prices (chart 4), hinting at a more disruptive role for trade policy. Against this cyclical backdrop sit deeper structural challenges: global energy consumption remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, the clean energy sector has lost momentum amid high costs and policy uncertainty, and equity markets have punished renewables even as climate imperatives intensify (charts 5 and 6). Together, these dynamics suggest that while markets continue to trade on optimism, the mix of weak housing signals, patchy Chinese demand, sticky inflation, and an uneven energy transition potentially leaves the global outlook more fragile than headline performance implies.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/1GqSlFq3gfZuMYDWhif8Ht?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Cracks Beneath The Shine

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Existing home sales rose 2.0% (0.8% y/y) to 4.01 million (SAAR) in July after falling 2.7% in June to an unrevised to 3.93 million and rising 1.0% to 4.04 million in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 3.91 million unit sales in July. Last month’s sales decline accompanied a decline in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to 6.72% from 6.82% in June. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rose 2.0% (1.1% y/y) during July to 3.64 million units after a 3.0% decline to 3.57 million in June and a 1.4% May rise to 3.68 million. Sales of condos and co-ops rose 2.8% (-2.6% y/y) to 370,000 after holding steady in June.

Sales were mixed across the country last month. Sales in the Northeast increased 8.7% (2.0% y/y) to 500,000 following an 8.0% June decline. Sales in the South improved 2.2% both m/m and y/y to 1.85 million, after falling 2.2% in June. Sales in the West rose 1.4% (-4.0% y/y) to 720,000 after a 1.4% June gain. Falling by 1.1% (+1.1% y/y) to 940,000 were sales in the Midwest after falling 4.0% in June.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) in July weakened 2.4% (+0.2% y/y) from the June record to $422,400. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y) to $428,500 in July, and the median price of condos & co-ops declined 3.1% (-1.2% y/y) to $362,600 last month. Prices for homes in the West declined 1.1% (-1.4% y/y) to $620,700 while prices in the Northeast fell 6.3% (+0.8% y/y) to $509,300. In the South, prices were off 1.8% (-0.6% y/y) to $367,400 while in the Midwest, home prices fell 1.1% (+3.9% y/y) to $333,800.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.6% (15.7% y/y) to 1.55 million units in July. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) slipped to 4.6 months, still nearly the highest level in nine years, up from a low of 1.6 months in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdf).

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- Home sales remain below recent high in December.
- Sales are slightly higher m/m in most of country.
- Median sales price slips from record high.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise Slightly in July; Home Prices Decline

Sandy Batten

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The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, fell more than 16 points to -0.3 in August from 15.9 in July. The index has posted negative readings, which indicate that activity is declining, in four of the previous five months. A reading of +5.0 for August had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nearly 30% of respondents reported an increase in activity in August, down from 31.7% in July, while 30% reported a decline, up markedly from 16% in July. Responses to this month's survey were collected from August 11 to August 18.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question on activity. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology employed in constructing the national ISM index. That calculated index fell to 49.1 in August, the first reading below the critical 50 level that separates expansion from contraction since April, from 51.2 in July.

Looking at the component indexes, both new orders and shipments posted significant declines in August with orders plummeting into negative territory at -1.9 versus 18.4 in July. This was the first negative reading for new orders since the tariff-induced plunge in April. Thirty-four percent of respondents reported an increase in orders in August, little changed from 35% in July. In contrast, 36% reported a decline in orders in August, up markedly from 17% in July. Shipments also declined significantly in August although they remained in positive territory at 4.5 versus 23.7 in July. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported an increase in shipments, down slightly from 32% in July. In contrast, 24% reported a decline, up markedly from 9% in July.

Firms continued to report overall increases in employment, but at a slower pace. The employment index fell 4 points to 5.9 in August from 10.3 in July. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (74%), while the share of firms reporting increases (16%) exceeded the share reporting decreases (10%, up from 7% in July). The average workweek index rose from 0.4 in July to 4.7 in August, its highest reading since March.

There was still no indication that increased tariffs have damaged supply chains. The delivery times index slipped further below zero to -5.4 in August, the fourth negative reading in five months indicating that delivery times are shortening, from -4.7 in July. Thirteen percent of respondents reported an increase in delivery times in August, up from 8% in July, while 18% reported a decrease versus 13% in July.

Inflation indicators continued to rise in August. The prices paid index jumped to 66.8 in August, its highest reading since May 2022, from an already elevated 58.8 in July. Nearly 67% of respondents reported an increase in input prices while no respondent reported a decline. The prices received index edged up to 36.1 in August, its highest reading in three months, from 34.8 in July. In the answer to a special question, firms expected a 4.1% increase in the prices of their own products over the coming year, up from 3.8% when this question was last asked in the May survey.

The outlook for the next six months brightened marginally in August with the Future Activity Index rising to 25.0 following an increase to 21.5 in July. Forty-one percent of respondents expect activity to increase over the coming six months, the same as in July, while 16% expect it to decline, down from 20% in July. The pace of increase in both new orders and shipments is expected to pick up. Delivery times are expected to increase only slightly. Employment growth is expected to slow. The outlook for capital expenditures rose markedly to 38.4 in August, the highest reading since January.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index fell more than 16 points to -0.3, led by outsized declines in both new orders and shipments.
- The ISM-adjusted composite fell below the critical 50 level for the first time in four months, also pointing to a decline in activity.
- Delivery times shortened further while both prices paid and prices received indexes posted gains.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Dipped Below Zero in August

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 235,000 during the week ended August 16 after falling to an unrevised 224,000 in the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 226,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 226,250 from 221,750. It was the highest level since the second week of July.

In the week ended August 9, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – rose to 1.972 million from 1.942 million in the prior week, revised from 1.953 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.955 million, the highest level in five weeks.

In the week ending August 9, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was 1.3% for the eleventh straight week.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended August 2, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.74%), Puerto Rico (2.62%), Rhode Island (2.52%), California (2.14%), Minnesota (2.20%) and Massachusetts (2.15%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.27%), Florida (0.39%), North Carolina (0.47%), Kansas (0.58%), Georgia (0.59%) and Louisiana (0.61%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.90%), Illinois (1.72%), New York (1.73%), Texas (1.25%) and Michigan (1.17%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims surge to highest level in eight weeks.
- Continuing claims extend upward trend.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.

Economy in Brief: 2004

Jump to:

Small Business Optimism Backpedaled

Small Business Optimism Backpedaled

US Dollar Decline Beginning to Affect Foreign Exchange Reserves

OECD Leaders Continued Sideways

OECD Leaders Continued Sideways

Employment Gains in Canada, Too; Unemployment Rate Stays Flat

U.S. Job Growth Strong, Revisions Positive

U.S. Job Growth Strong, Revisions Positive