Global| Nov 08 2004OECD Leaders Continued Sideways
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 0.1% decline in the September Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries left the series at the same level it reached in February and the monthly gyration around that level has been minimal. The six-month [...]
The 0.1% decline in the September Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries left the series at the same level it reached in February and the monthly gyration around that level has been minimal. The six-month growth rate fell to 1.2% from 7.8% during the period.
Weakness in the leaders for the United States has been most notable this year, though positive economic growth still is suggested. Six-month growth in the US leaders fell to 1.1% versus 11.6% in January as a result of lower business & consumer sentiment and a tighter yield curve. The leading index in Japan also weakened with six-month growth falling to 0.4% from 3.5% in January.
The leading index growth rate for the European Union fell to 2.7% from 6.2% in January. Growth in the German leaders fell to 3.1% in September versus 8.3% in January. The French leading index growth rate remained relatively firm decelerating only to 5.1% versus 8.2% at the start of the year. Leaders in Italy stabilized during the last two months after earlier declines but six-month growth in the series nevertheless went negative at -0.2% versus +2.1% in January. The UK leaders also stabilized in August & September and the six month growth rate returned to positive territory at 0.5%.
In Canada the leaders went negative for the first time since June 2003. The -1.1% growth rate was due mostly to the factors that pulled the US index down.
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| OECD Main Economic Indicators | Sept | Aug | 6-Mth Chg | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 102.3 | 102.4 | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | -3.1% |
| European Union | 106.1 | 105.7 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | -2.4% |
| Japan | 98.1 | 97.9 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | -4.5% |
| United States | 102.6 | 103.1 | 1.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | -3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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