Economy in Brief: August 2020

Manufacturing in China has improved and in August it is still expanding. But the PMI in August stepped back a tick to 51.0 from July's 51.1. At a mark of 51.0, it is barely indicating expansion at all. And even the three-month average [...]

• August reading stands at highest level since February 2019. • Components strengthen broadly. • Expectations improve. The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity [...]

The overall EMU index shows an ongoing rebound with significant monthly gains, but as of August the queue standing of the index is at its 12.9 percentile and nearly 16 points below its February value. The index rose by 8 points in [...]

• Business activity remains in expansion mode. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer eased to 51.2 in August from 51.9 in July. This is the second month above 50 since June 2019. A reading above 50 suggests rising [...]

• Spending rose for third consecutive month, points to strong Q3. • Wages and salaries rose but government payments fell again. • Annual price inflation picks up but still well below Fed's target. Personal consumption expenditures [...]

• Trade deficit increased to $79.3 billion in July from $71.0 billion in June. • Exports and Imports both grow by 11.8%. Imports roughly 70% larger than exports causing widening. • Exports still 16.5% below February 2020 level. [...]

Money supply in EMU has surged showing annualized double-digit rates of growth over three months and six months, and nearly so over 12 months (9.5%). And while year-on-year credit growth has accelerated on 12-month growth rates (see [...]

• Midwest economic activity continues to improve. • Future expectations indicate continued expansion but at a slower pace than reported in July. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that the manufacturing business activity [...]