Economy in Brief: October 2002

Real GDP last quarter grew slightly less than Consensus expectations for a 3.5% (AR) rise. Nevertheless it was the second strongest quarterly rate of growth since 2Q 2000. Domestic final demand growth of 3.2% was paced by 4.2% growth [...]

The OECD Index of Leading Indicators fell during this past Summer following steady improvement to a June peak. Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries remained positive through 2Q02. In the US real GDP grew 1.3% (AR). [...]

The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell quite a bit more than expected in October, to 79.4. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 90.0. September's level was revised up slightly. The 15.3% m/m decline in [...]

Setting the course for US monetary policy is the job of the Federal Reserve System. The arduous task is complicated by the myriad relationships, most of them lagged, amongst financial and real economic variables. The Fed starts by [...]

Durable goods orders were quite a bit weaker than expected last month, falling more than in any month since September of last year. The slight August decline was unrevised. Much of the September decline was due to a sharp 46.3% drop [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected in the latest week. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The latest decline may have been influenced by the Columbus Day holiday, according to the Labor [...]

Chain store sales recouped some of the prior week's sharp decline according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales rose 0.6% last week following a 0.9% decline the prior week. Sales thus far in October sales were 1.0% below the average for [...]

The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, reported by the Conference Board, fell as expected last month. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the last six. August figures were revised to [...]