Global| Oct 21 2002Leading Indicators Down For Fourth Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, reported by the Conference Board, fell as expected last month. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the last six. August figures were revised to [...]
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, reported by the Conference Board, fell as expected last month. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the last six. August figures were revised to show slightly less of a decline.
The breadth-of-gain amongst the leaders' component series improved slightly to 45% from an upwardly revised 40% in August. Nevertheless, the six-month diffusion index fell to a low 40%. Higher claims for jobless insurance, lower stock prices and a narrower yield curve had the largest negative influences on the leading index in September.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators rose for the twelfth consecutive month. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.
The coincident indicators were unchanged, not rising for the first month since February. The lagging indicators fell sharply due to a shorter duration of unemployment and lower C&I loans.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
| Business Cycle Indicators | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | -0.2% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.7% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
| Coincident | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Lagging | -0.6% | -0.1% | -4.7% | -1.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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