Global| Oct 30 2002OECD Leaders Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators fell during this past Summer following steady improvement to a June peak. Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries remained positive through 2Q02. In the US real GDP grew 1.3% (AR). [...]
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators fell during this past Summer following steady improvement to a June peak.
Real economic growth in the Major Seven OECD countries remained positive through 2Q02. In the US real GDP grew 1.3% (AR). Japan saw 2.6% growth but prior figures were revised down. Growth in Europe improved some as a result of improvement in the UK.
In Germany, industrial production fell slightly in 2Q but has since recovered, jumping strongly in August. Retail sales volumes were down from an April high. Prices were up 1.0%.
In the UK, production has moved sideways this year though retail value growth remained firm, up 3.7% y/y through the Summer. Retail price inflation (harmonized) was 1.0% y/y in September.
Production in France has been erratic this year but was up 1.2% (YTD) in August. Retail sales volumes have been firm and consumer inflation has run a relatively high 1.8% (y/y).
Production in Japan jumped 4.0% in May and has since held on to that gain. Retail sales values have moved slightly lower as price deflation has continued.
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | 2Q02 | 1Q02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - GDP (Mil. 95 US$, SAAR) | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| European Union - GDP (Mil. 95 US$, SAAR) | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Germany - GDP (Bil. 95 Euros, SAAR) | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| United Kingdom - GDP (Mil. 95 Pounds, SAAR) | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Japan - GDP (Bil. 95 Yen, SAAR) | 2.6% | -0.0% | -0.7% | -0.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| OECD Total - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 5.6% | 10.4% | 2.4% | -3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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