Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171030f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171030g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030g.png"></a>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas
Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the October General Business Activity Index
rose to 27.6 from 21.3 in September. The index was at the highest point since
March 2006. The production index increased to a three-year high while new orders
volumes strengthened. The inventories measure also rose. The jobs index inched
up to the highest level since April 2014. The workweek and shipments series each
slipped m/m, but remained in their recent uptrend.

Finished goods prices received also eased m/m but remained in
its uptrend. The raw material prices measure dipped m/m but was up sharply
versus the 2016 low. The same pattern was exhibited by the wages &amp; benefits measure.

The index of expected business conditions in six months rose
to the highest level since the beginning of the year. Expected shipments volume
strengthened along with expected capacity utilization. The future employment
index eased and has been moving sideways all year. The measure of expected wages
&amp; benefits declined sharply to the lowest level in twelve months.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage
reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms
report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will
register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the
number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up
to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be
found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

<a href="/comment/171030h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171030i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030i.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA,
 % Balance)</th>
 <th 0801 >Oct</th>
 <th 0801 >Sep</th>
 <th 0801 >Aug</th>
 <th 0801 >Oct'16</th>
 <th 0801 >2016</th>
 <th 0801 >2015</th>
 <th 0801 >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Current General Business Activity Index</td>
 <td >27.6</td>
 <td >21.3</td>
 <td >17.0</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >-8.8</td>
 <td >-12.5</td>
 <td >8.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >25.6</td>
 <td >19.5</td>
 <td >20.3</td>
 <td >7.7</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 <td >14.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Growth Rate of Orders</td>
 <td >12.3</td>
 <td >9.7</td>
 <td >11.7</td>
 <td >-2.6</td>
 <td >-7.3</td>
 <td >-11.8</td>
 <td >4.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >16.7</td>
 <td >16.3</td>
 <td >9.9</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >-4.9</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >11.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Prices Received for
 Finished Goods</td>
 <td >15.3</td>
 <td >17.5</td>
 <td >10.2</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >-1.6</td>
 <td >-8.5</td>
 <td >8.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >General Business Activity Index Expected
 in Six Months</td>
 <td >38.5</td>
 <td >34.5</td>
 <td >29.2</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 <td >8.9</td>
 <td >4.1</td>
 <td >17.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >46.0</td>
 <td >46.5</td>
 <td >43.1</td>
 <td >33.4</td>
 <td >35.8</td>
 <td >31.1</td>
 <td >42.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Growth Rate of New Orders</td>
 <td >36.7</td>
 <td >35.8</td>
 <td >37.1</td>
 <td >24.4</td>
 <td >24.3</td>
 <td >20.7</td>
 <td >31.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >34.2</td>
 <td >41.3</td>
 <td >30.8</td>
 <td >13.9</td>
 <td >16.7</td>
 <td >14.7</td>
 <td >28.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Wages &amp; Benefits</td>
 <td >36.9</td>
 <td >39.8</td>
 <td >44.3</td>
 <td >37.3</td>
 <td >34.8</td>
 <td >33.2</td>
 <td >43.1</td>
</tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the October General Business Activity Index rose to 27.6 from 21.3 in September. The index was at the highest point since March 2006. The [...]

Texas Factory Sector Growth Continues to Improve

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171030a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171030b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030b.png"></a>

Personal income increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y) during September
following an unrevised 0.2% August rise. It was the largest income gain since
February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department
indicated that the figures reflect the effects of Hurricanes Harvey &amp; Irma,
which were not quantified. Wages &amp; salaries rose 0.4% (3.2% y/y) following
an upwardly revised 0.1% gain. Rental income grew 0.6% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Proprietors'
income also improved 0.6% (2.6% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Dividend income
jumped 0.8% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Personal interest income improved 0.3%
(3.2% y/y) for the third straight month. Personal transfer receipts rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) after
a 0.3% increase. Social Security payments moved 0.4% higher (3.5% y/y), the firmest
rise in three months. Medicare payments gained a steady 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Unemployment
insurance benefits declined 1.1% (-8.7% y/y), about as they did in August.

Disposable income gained 0.4% (2.9% y/y), the strongest rise
since May. Adjusted for price changes take-home pay eased slightly (+1.2% y/y)
and continued the lethargic movement of the last four months.

Personal consumption expenditures jumped 1.0% (4.4% y/y) last
month, the strongest rise since August 2009. A 0.9% gain had been expected. Adjusted
for price change, personal spending increased 0.6% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.1% slip. Real durable goods purchases
surged 3.5% (7.3% y/y), reflecting a 9.9% jump (8.5% y/y) in motor vehicle buying. Real furniture
purchases jumped 1.0% (6.5% y/y), while real spending on recreational goods &amp;
vehicles rose 0.6% (8.2% y/y). Constant dollar spending on nondurable items rose
0.3% (2.6% y/y) for a second straight month. Real purchases of clothing
&amp; footwear increased 0.5% (1.7% y/y) following three straight months of
decline. Real spending on gasoline &amp; oil declined 1.5% (-2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Real
spending on food &amp; beverages rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y). Real spending on services
improved 0.3% (2.0% y/y) following no change. Real recreation spending jumped
1.2% (3.4% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Real outlays on health
care rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y), but housing &amp; utilities expenditures improved
0.4% (0.8% y/y) after three months of decline.

The personal savings rate weakened to 3.1%, the lowest level
since December 2007. Personal saving declined by roughly one quarter y/y.

The chain-type price index increased 0.4% (1.6% y/y), the
strongest increase since January. Excluding food &amp; energy, prices increased
0.1% (1.3% y/y) for the fifth straight month. Nondurable goods prices jumped
1.2% (2.0% y/y) with a 12.2% surge (18.3 y/y) in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices
declined 0.3% (-2.1% y/y), down for the eighth straight month. The price index for
recreational goods &amp; vehicles fell 0.4% (-3.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.2% (2.1% y/y) for the fourth month in five.

The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available
in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The
Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/171030c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171030d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171030d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >4.0</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >4.5 
 (Sep '16)</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >5.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

Personal income increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% August rise. It was the largest income gain since February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce [...]

U.S. Personal Income & Spending Strengthen

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/171027e.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027e.png" align="left"></a>
French consumer confidence from INSEE continued to step back in October, falling to 100 from September's 101. Confidence had spiked at 108 in the midst of French election fever; however, June was a one-hit wonder as confidence jumped to 108 from May's 102 then fell back to 104 in July and has edged lower month-by-month since then. Still, confidence averaged 97 for all of 2016 and ended the year at 99. The value 99 is the average for the confidence reading back to January 1990. So in October, confidence is a thin tick above average. The ranking for the monthly confidence standing is at its 56th percentile, implying that it is just a small margin above its median (which occurs at a rank percentile reading of 50). Confidence in France is only slightly above 'normal' according to comparisons with the mean and the median. While that is not a poor standing, it is a weaker one than might be expected given the relatively elevated Markit-survey private sector readings being posted by France. Its services sector and manufacturing sector each are being assessed as only having been better less than 10% of the time over the past six years. Yet, consumer confidence is only middling.

The French PMI scores from Markit have been strong by recent standards as the French economy has been recovering. Hollande may not have been very popular (beware: understatement), but he did turn over the economy to the new PM, Emmanuel Macron, in good shape.

In October, the French household rate for past living standards is at a -39, an improvement from September's -41. Their anticipation for the next 12 months, however, slips this month to -23 from -22 in September. Despite the difference in the actual values of the monthly diffusion indexes, the past living-standard rating is actually a higher ranking than is the outlook for the next 12 months. The past living standard ranks in its 71st percentile while the next 12-month outlook stands in its 66th percentile. Still, the ranks are reasonably well-elevated above their respective medians (at 50) and represent solid assessments for living standards.

The prospect for unemployment over the next 12 months is seeing a slippage to 15 from 16 and a percentile standing value of 25.7. A low ranking for unemployment expectations is a good sign. Unemployment 'fears' are lower than this month's value only about one-quarter of the time.

Price developments assessed over the past 12 months as well as over the next 12 months show less price weakness. The 12-month past diffusion score rises to -50 from -53 while the outlook score rises relatively sharply to -20 from -29. Price weakness in the past has been weaker only about 11% of the time. The outlook for prices finds prices having been expected to be stronger only about 14% of the time. While the raw diffusion scores are solidly negative, the outlook reading on inflation expectations is getting into relatively strong territory for the outlook.

French households note that the environment for saving slipped in October relative to September and the outlook is slipping as well. The past environment deteriorated by 8 points month-to-month; the outlook is now weaker by five points. The assessment of being favorable to save is at one of its lowest levels over the past 12 months at a 1.2 percentile ranking. However, the ability to save is now close to its mean value as firms look ahead and as the October reading has a 50.6 percentile standing, a slight margin above its historic median.

The current environment for spending grades out pretty well in October. Conditions slip on the month and form a reading of -6, a drop from a reading of -3. But the current reading still has a historic standing in its 82.3 percentile, marking it as better only about 18% of the time.

Households are concerned about their financial situation. Over the last 12 months, the assessment slipped by one point to a near neutral 50.3 percentile standing. Looking ahead over the next 12 months, the standing slips to -15 from -12 to a 22.2 percentile standing. That means expected financial conditions have been worse between one fifth to one quarter of the time.

There have been some very consistent and strong PMI readings for France that are not filtering through to the consumer. The two big current readings are in good shape; I refer to low fears of unemployment and a solid-to-strong assessment of spending conditions. Despite a long period of very contained inflation, inflation fears seem to be creeping. That is surprising since the ECB has been trying to boost inflation up to its target (near 2%) but has been unsuccessful. In a separate survey today for all of the EMU, it was reported that inflation expectations for the whole euro area rose by just one small tick in a survey conducted by the ECB. While living standards are on firm-footing, the future is somewhat in doubt as we see in the low ranking for expected financial conditions. Things are fine. Things have been fine. Fears of unemployment are low. It's a good time to spend (now)...but the future? That's the problem.

As the ECB gets ready to dismantle some of its growth support programs, we find the German economy operating at a strong pace with extremely low unemployment and very high confidence. But France, as the second largest EMU economy and having strong PMI readings, does not have the bravado to match Germany. French households are worried about the future. Some of the Macron labor market reforms, while good for the economy - especially one that has to compete in the same currency area with Germany, a next-door neighbor - are not popular and may give rise to some anxiety in households. Labor market reforms can be good for increasing a country's competitiveness since the conditions in competitor countries may be more favorable for producers there. But if being competitive policy changes cause some reduction in living standards, wages and job security, the public will not see those changes are for the better. It's a paradox of sorts. But it is true that businesses and countries must change to meet the competition. The economics of denial may keep an economy running under what seem to be constant conditions for a while, but eventually that will end if it is not competitive. And it might end in a bang. France is going through such a tension now as Macron has championed labor market reforms which are not popular but may very well be necessary for survival. Consumer confidence may be undergoing a tug-of-war over how it now views the future. And while the Macron reforms have not been popular, he did not make so many changes as to anger unions. France may yet have to take another step to move its labor rules into the 21st century, but it is done for now.


<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027.png" width="660" height="390">
</html>

French consumer confidence from INSEE continued to step back in October, falling to 100 from September's 101. Confidence had spiked at 108 in the midst of French election fever; however, June was a one-hit wonder as confidence jumped [...]

French Consumer Confidence Continues to Move South (Not the South of France)

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171027a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027a.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/171027b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027b.png"></a>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.

The change in business inventories added 0.7 percentage
points to growth last quarter following a one-tenth of a percentage point Q2
addition. Improvement in net exports added a 0.4 percentage point to growth, the
most in a year. Exports grew 2.3% (2.3% y/y), the weakest advance in three
quarters. Imports fell 0.8% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since Q1'16.

Domestic final sales growth of 1.8% (2.3% y/y) was the
weakest advance since Q1'16 as it decelerated from 2.7% in Q2. Consumer spending
growth slowed to 2.4% (2.6% y/y) from 3.3% as nondurable goods consumption
halved to 2.1% (2.5% y/y). Gasoline &amp; fuel oil consumption declined 4.8%
(-1.3% y/y) while clothing purchases fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y. Durable goods
consumption growth quickened to 8.3% (6.2% y/y) as motor vehicle buying
strengthened 14.7% (4.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings and appliances
advanced 7.4% (6.6% y/y), but recreational goods purchases eased 0.2% (+8.5 y/y)
following three straight quarters of double-digit growth. Services spending grew
1.5% (2.1% y/y), the weakest quarterly gain in four years. Housing utilities
spending gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Recreation spending
strengthened 3.7% (3.0% y/y) while restaurant &amp; hotel expenditures rose 2.8% (1.2% y/y).

<a href="/comment/171027c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027d.png"></a>

Business fixed investment grew 3.9% (4.4% y/y). Three-quarter
growth averaging 5.9% was the quickest in three years and up from a 0.6% decline
last year. Equipment spending grew a steady 8.6% (5.9% y/y) as investment in
information processing equipment jumped 12.9% (8.6% y/y). Industrial equipment
investment grew 5.6% (7.6% y/y) and intellectual property product investment
improved 4.3% (3.3% y/y). Structures investment fell 5.2% (+3.3% y/y) after a 7.0% rise.

Residential investment fell 6.0% following a 7.3% decline.
Year-to-year growth of 0.9% was down from the peak 13.5% advance during all of 2012.

Government sector spending eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off for
the third straight quarter. State &amp; local government spending fell 0.9%
(-0.3% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. Federal government investment increased
1.2% after a 1.9% Q2 gain, but it was unchanged y/y. Defense spending grew 2.3%
(0.1% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Nondefense spending eased 0.5% (-0.0% y/y), off
for the third straight quarter.

The GDP price index strengthened 2.2% (1.8% y/y), the
quickest increase in five quarters. The gain was led by a 5.1% increase (4.0%
y/y) in the residential investment price index. The government consumption price
index rose 2.5% both q/q and y/y. The personal consumption price index gained
1.5% (1.5% y/y), up from the 0.3% Q2 increase and the business fixed investment
price index rose 1.3% (1.3% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

<a href="/comment/171027f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027g.png"></a>


	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.12</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
 <td >2.26</td>
 <td >2.95</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >6.7</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td >-6.0</td>
 <td >-7.3</td>
 <td >11.1</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >5.5</td>
 <td >10.2</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 
 

</html>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the Action Economics [...]

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171027a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171027g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171027g.png"></a>

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.


	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q4'16</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.12</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
 <td >2.26</td>
 <td >2.95</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-1.6</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >6.7</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td >-6.0</td>
 <td >-7.3</td>
 <td >11.1</td>
 <td >7.1</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >5.5</td>
 <td >10.2</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" >Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 
 

</html>

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>U</title>
</head>



 

Economic growth of 3.0% (2.3% y/y) during Q3'17 roughly
matched growth during Q2. Together, these were the firmest quarters since the
middle of 2014. The latest figure surpassed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce Department indicated that
Hurricane Harvey reduced oil &amp; gas output, while Hurricane Irma lessened
agriculture production.
The change in business inventories added 0.7 percentage
points to growth last quarter following a one-tenth of a percentage point Q2
addition. Improvement in net exports added a 0.4 percentage point to growth, the
most in a year. Exports grew 2.3% (2.3% y/y), the weakest advance in three
quarters. Imports fell 0.8% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since Q1'16.
Domestic final sales growth of 1.8% (2.3% y/y) was the
weakest advance since Q1'16 as it decelerated from 2.7% in Q2. Consumer spending
growth slowed to 2.4% (2.6% y/y) from 3.3% as nondurable goods consumption
halved to 2.1% (2.5% y/y). Gasoline &amp; fuel oil consumption declined 4.8%
(-1.3% y/y) while clothing purchases fell 0.5% (+1.6% y/y. Durable goods
consumption growth quickened to 8.3% (6.2% y/y) as motor vehicle buying
strengthened 14.7% (4.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings and appliances
advanced 7.4% (6.6% y/y), but recreational goods purchases eased 0.2% (+8.5 y/y)
following three straight quarters of double-digit growth. Services spending grew
1.5% (2.1% y/y), the weakest quarterly gain in four years. Housing utilities
spending gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Recreation spending
strengthened 3.7% (3.0% y/y) while restaurant &amp; hotel expenditures rose 2.8%
(1.2% y/y).&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Business fixed investment grew 3.9% (4.4% y/y). Three-quarter
growth averaging 5.9% was the quickest in three years and up from a 0.6% decline
last year. Equipment spending grew a steady 8.6% (5.9% y/y) as investment in
information processing equipment jumped 12.9% (8.6% y/y). Industrial equipment
investment grew 5.6% (7.6% y/y) and intellectual property product investment
improved 4.3% (3.3% y/y). Structures investment fell 5.2% (+3.3% y/y) after a
7.0% rise.
Residential investment fell 6.0% following a 7.3% decline.
Year-to-year growth of 0.9% was down from the peak 13.5% advance during all of
2012.
Government sector spending eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off for
the third straight quarter. State &amp; local government spending fell 0.9%
(-0.3% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. Federal government investment increased
1.2% after a 1.9% Q2 gain, but it was unchanged y/y. Defense spending grew 2.3%
(0.1% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Nondefense spending eased 0.5% (-0.0% y/y), off
for the third straight quarter.
The GDP price index strengthened 2.2% (1.8% y/y), the
quickest increase in five quarters. The gain was led by a 5.1% increase (4.0%
y/y) in the residential investment price index. The government consumption price
index rose 2.5% both q/q and y/y. The personal consumption price index gained
1.5% (1.5% y/y), up from the 0.3% Q2 increase and the business fixed investment
price index rose 1.3% (1.3% y/y).&nbsp; 
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="575"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="148">Q3'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="148">Q2'17 </th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">Q3'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2016</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2015</th>
 <th scope="col" width="149">2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.12</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.26</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="8" width="1616">Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">6.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">7.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-7.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">11.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">5.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">10.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">-0.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="8" width="1616">Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="575">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">&nbsp;1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="148">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="149">1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>






</html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/171026h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026i.png"></a>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its
index of regional manufacturing sector business activity jumped to 23 in October
following an unrevised uptick to 17 during September. The figure was at the
highest level since March 2011. The ISM-Adjusted index strengthened to 62.2
(NSA), also its highest level since March 2011. During the last ten years, there
has been a 57% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Movement amongst the index components was mixed. Inventory
measures surged. Export orders along with domestic new &amp; unfilled orders
also rose last month. Shipments held steady, while supplier delivery times
backed away from a ten-year high, signifying sharply slower product delivery speeds.

Employment jumped to the highest level since March 2011.
Thirty-four percent of respondents reported increased hiring while 11% reported
a decline in job levels. The employee workweek measure also strengthened.

The index of finished goods prices held steady after last
month's sharp increase. It remained up significantly since the January 2015 low.
The raw materials prices index improved m/m, and also significantly improved
versus the 2015 low.

The overall expectations index increased sharply to the
highest level since March. Expected new orders, shipments, employment, the
employee workweek, exports and production each strengthened. Capital spending
improved modestly.

Expectations for finished goods prices ticked higher m/m and
remained up sharply since the September 2015 low. Expected raw material prices
also gained moderately and remained up compared to 2015.

The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of
total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines.
The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska,
Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey
can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

<a href="/comment/171026j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026j.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/171026z.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/171026z.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA)</th>
 <th>Oct</th>
 <th>Sep</th>
 <th>Aug</th>
 <th>Oct '16</th>
 <th>2016</th>
 <th>2015</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance)</td>
 <td >23</td>
 <td >17</td>
 <td >16</td>
 <td >4</td>
 <td >-2</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >ISM-Adjusted Composite Index (NSA)</td>
 <td >62.2</td>
 <td >59.2</td>
 <td >57.9</td>
 <td >51.1</td>
 <td >48.5</td>
 <td >46.8</td>
 <td >52.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; New Orders Volume</td>
 <td >27</td>
 <td >10</td>
 <td >25</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >-1</td>
 <td >-8</td>
 <td >7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >21</td>
 <td >18</td>
 <td >14</td>
 <td >3</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >-10</td>
 <td >5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >20</td>
 <td >22</td>
 <td >22</td>
 <td >12</td>
 <td >1</td>
 <td >-5</td>
 <td >7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Prices Received for Finished Product</td>
 <td >13</td>
 <td >13</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >-6</td>
 <td >-7</td>
 <td >-5</td>
 <td >5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Expected Conditions in Six Months</td>
 <td >32</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >23</td>
 <td >16</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >4</td>
 <td >17</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; New Orders Volume</td>
 <td >45</td>
 <td >27</td>
 <td >39</td>
 <td >17</td>
 <td >19</td>
 <td >11</td>
 <td >26</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >35</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >18</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >6</td>
 <td >18</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td >47</td>
 <td >38</td>
 <td >38</td>
 <td >30</td>
 <td >20</td>
 <td >11</td>
 <td >28</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Prices Received for Finished Product</td>
 <td >32</td>
 <td >29</td>
 <td >34</td>
 <td >8</td>
 <td >6</td>
 <td >9</td>
 <td >26</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity jumped to 23 in October following an unrevised uptick to 17 during September. The figure was at the highest level since [...]

Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250905A2.jpg

250905B2.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 during August after rising 79,000 in July, revised from 73,000 and falling 13,000 during June, revised from a 14,000 increase. Expectations had been for an 83,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 29,300 compared to 28,300 in July, but stood far below its high of 231,700 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% in August after unrevised gains of 0.3% in July and 0.2% in June. Earnings growth of 3.7% y/y equals that in June which is the lowest since July 2024, but has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.3% from 4.2% in July and 4.1% in June. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, rose to 8.1% last month from 7.9% In July. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in August rose 38,000 after rising 77,000 in July.  Factory sector jobs declined 12,000, off for the fourth straight month. Durable goods employment fell 19,000 after rising 5,000, as motor vehicle & parts hiring declined 7,300 after a 2,000 July gain. Nondurables employment rose 7,000, reversing a 7,000 July decline. Construction sector employment weakened 7,000, down for the third straight month. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 6,000, also registering the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Private service-sector employment increased 63,000 during August after improving 85,000 in July. Increases varied greatly amongst service-sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 46,000 last month, following a 77,000 increase in July. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 28,000 after a 6,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 2,000, following a 5,000 increase, but financial activities employment weakened 3,000 after increasing 9,000 in July. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 17,000, down for the fourth straight month as temporary help employment declined 9,800, also off for the fourth month in a row. Information sector employment declined 5,000, after falling 7,000 in July and 3,000 in June. Transportation & warehousing hiring weakened 3,600 last month following a 6,300 drop.

Government sector payrolls declined 16,000 last month following a 2,000 rise. Federal government employment weakened 15,000 and has fallen for seven straight months. State government payrolls declined 13,000 after falling in each of the prior three months. To the upside, local government hiring rose 12,000 following a 17,000 July increase.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in August, the same as in July. Earnings in the goods-producing sector increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) in August, double the July rise. In construction, earnings rose 0.6% (4.2% y/y) following a 0.3% rise, while factory sector earnings improved 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. In the service sector, earnings rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y) in August, the same as in July. Professional & business services pay increased 0.4% (5.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month while leisure & hospitality earnings also increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after two straight months of 0.3% increase. Information earnings rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) for the second straight month.

250905C2.jpg

250905D2.jpg

The length of the average workweek was 34.2 hours in August for the third straight month. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 39.9 hours in July. The construction sector average workweek held at 39.0 hours while the factory sector workweek eased to 40.0 hours from 40.2 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Information sector hours edged up to 37.0 from 36.9. Financial activities hours held at 37.6. Private education & health services hours eased to 32.7 from 32.8 in July.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August after rising to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June as employment rose 288,000 after falling 260,000 in July and the size of the labor force increased 436,000 after three straight months of decline. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.3% last month from 62.2%, remaining well below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers eased to 34.8%, a five-year low. For workers aged 20-24, the rate plunged to 70.2%, a four year-low. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate increased to 83.7%, an eleven-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate held steady at 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers steadied at 59.6% last month. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate rose to 65.0% from 64.7% in July and for women, the rate eased to 54.5 % on the heels of a slip to 54.7% in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250905X2.jpg

250905F2.jpg

- Hiring weakens broadly; factory, construction & government jobs decline.
- Earnings gain slows y/y.
- Unemployment rate increases as job growth lags rise in labor force.

U.S. Payroll Employment Report Reveals Unexpected Weakness in August; Earnings Rise Steadily, but Jobless Rate Increases

250905E.jpg

Germany's factory orders declined for the third straight month in July. Real new orders fell 2.9% month-on-month in July, against expectations for a small increase. The drop was sharper than a 0.2% decrease in June; foreign orders declined 3.1% in July, as orders from the euro area contracted 3.8%, and orders from outside the euro area fell by 2.8%. These metrics suggest that demand both inside and outside the euro area remains weak. Domestic orders dropped 2.5% in July, an exact offset to their gain in June. When ranked on growth rates over the last 30 years, all three sector growth rates are below their medians (below a ranking of 50%). However, when ranked on the real index number level, total orders rank at their 55.6 percentile, foreign orders rank at their 79.5 percentile and domestic orders rank at their 15.2 percentile. All-in-all it’s an unimpressive report.

**Orders sequentially and QTD:** Sequential trends are ambivalent but still clearly weak. Sequential growth rates do not show a clear acceleration/deceleration pattern. But for total, foreign and domestic real orders, both 3-month and 12-month growth rates are negative (one exception: foreign orders over 12 months). Domestic orders show negative growth over 6 months as well. Quarter-to-date growth rates are negative for all sectors.

**Sales trends:** Real sales are mixed in July, rising 0.9% overall on declines in two sectors: consumer durables and intermediate goods. Sector sales mostly maintain growth as manufacturing sales are positive based on growth rates over 12 months, 6 months, and 3 months. Consumer goods and intermediate goods sales show deceleration and ongoing contraction. Consumer durable goods and intermediate goods show QTD declines. On the manufacturing & mining to total, manufacturing and capital goods show index standings above their respective 50% on 30 years of data. That also shows above-median growth rates on annual data along with consumer goods and consumer nondurable goods.

**Industrial confidence:** Industrial confidence measures for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, the four largest EMU members, show improved (but still net negative readings) in July compared to June. Over three months and six months, Germany and Italy show some improvement; France still shows steady deterioration. Spain shows improvement over 3 months and it is only slight improvement. The queue standings for the industrial reading over 30 years of data show Spain with an above-median reading in July. Germany and France are exceptionally weak and Italy has been weaker only 26% of the time based on the queue standing measure. Not only are German orders and demand weak and faltering but the broad EU Commission measures of industrial confidence show broadly weak readings for the largest economies in the EMU.

250905.jpg

Germany

German Factory Orders Plunge on Domestic Weakness

Andrew Cates

**Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty**
This week’s record-breaking surge in gold prices has coincided with renewed volatility in trade policy uncertainty, reflecting the market’s heightened sensitivity to political and legal developments in Washington. A series of legislative challenges to the administration’s latest tariff measures has raised the prospect that parts of the policy framework could be overturned or significantly diluted. That possibility has injected another layer of uncertainty into an already fragile trade environment, amplifying demand for gold as a hedge. Investors appear to be weighing not only the inflationary risks of tariffs that remain in place but also the destabilizing effects of unpredictable policy reversals, leaving gold prices at historic highs and the trade policy uncertainty index elevated.

250904Z1.jpg

**US Tariffs**
Although the data in this chart extend only through June 2025, they clearly illustrate which trading partners would gain the most if US tariff policies were to be reversed. China stands out as the most heavily penalised, with effective tariff rates rising by more than 25 percentage points in just six months. Japan and South Korea have also faced significant tariff hikes, suggesting that their exporters would benefit substantially from any policy rollback. Taiwan, India, and the EU also feature prominently, though at more moderate levels. By contrast, ASEAN economies, Australia, and the UK have seen relatively smaller increases, leaving them less exposed. In aggregate, a broad reversal of tariffs would most immediately alleviate the pressure on East Asian exporters—particularly China—while also reducing costs for US importers and consumers who have been disproportionately affected by higher prices on goods from the region.

250904Z2.jpg

**The Indian economy and US trade policy** 
India faces a particularly sharp squeeze from the latest wave of US tariff hikes, given that the US now absorbs nearly one-fifth of its exports. The imposition of higher barriers has dealt a direct blow to key sectors, such as textiles and jewellery, while also undermining investor confidence. That pressure is clearly visible in the sharp depreciation of India’s trade-weighted currency, which has accelerated in 2025. Rather than offering a competitiveness boost, the weaker rupee has compounded difficulties by lifting import costs and stoking inflation at home. The result is that tariffs have both curtailed India’s export earnings and strained its domestic economy, leaving policymakers with limited options beyond seeking trade diversification and targeted support measures.

250904Z3.jpg

**Global monetary policy** 
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey helps explain why equity markets have remained upbeat despite escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. The survey points to an expected sizeable policy easing over the coming year, particularly in the US and UK where forecasters anticipate close to a full percentage point of rate cuts. Australia and Canada are also projected to deliver meaningful reductions, while the euro area is expected to ease more modestly. Japan stands out as the exception, with expectations tilted toward further tightening. For equities, these projections of broad-based rate cuts provide a crucial cushion—supporting valuations, lowering discount rates, and reinforcing the sense that policymakers are prepared to offset the drag from tariffs and slowing global growth.

250904Z4.jpg

**Euro area inflation** 
By contrast with the US and UK, where forecasters in the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey anticipate close to a full percentage point of rate cuts, expectations for the ECB are more restrained. This reflects the fact that the ECB has already delivered a relatively large degree of policy easing, while headline inflation has now fallen back to levels close to its target. Even so, further rate reductions remain likely if underlying price pressures continue to moderate. As the chart shows, services inflation has begun to move lower in line with a clear decline in wage growth, suggesting that disinflationary momentum is building. Should this trend persist, the ECB will have scope to add to its easing cycle, though at a slower and more cautious pace than peers such as the Fed or the Bank of England.

250904Z5.jpg

**Prices and cost pressures in the US corporate sector** 
Corporate profitability has long been one of the best leading signals for US equity cycles, and the measure here (Non-financial corporate profits per unit of output – i.e. profit margins) has slipped from its late-2023 peak and moved sideways for much of the past year. That’s not a collapse, but it does raise questions about how long equities can keep rising without stronger profit momentum. The recent Q2 uptick—a 1.8% annualised gain—came despite a hefty rise in non-labour costs, with margins protected by modest pricing power and a notable 2.2% drop in unit labour costs. Whether that labour relief reflects softer wage pressures or a structural productivity boost—potentially tied to AI—will be crucial in determining if profits can remain resilient, or if this plateau is the prelude to a downturn.

250904Z6.jpg

Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. Gold’s surge to record highs arguably captures the search for safe havens amid this uncertainty (chart 1), while the possibility of tariff reversals keeps alive the prospect of relief for the most affected exporters, notably China, Japan, and South Korea (chart 2). India’s position looks more precarious, with its reliance on the US market colliding with a weakening trade-weighted currency as tariffs bite into growth and investor confidence (chart 3). Monetary policy expectations, however, continue to offer some support, with the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey pointing to sizeable easing in the US and UK (chart 4). The ECB is expected to tread more cautiously after earlier cuts and with headline inflation now near target. Still, if inflation continues to ease, further action remains possible (chart 5). In the US, corporate resilience is also helping offset some of the gloom: despite tariff-driven spikes in non-labour costs, falling unit labour costs—possibly aided by AI productivity gains—and firmer prices allowed profits per unit of output to rise in Q2 (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0sd6yLt6aGEGOdVpZ2VZbW?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: A Few Cuts More

250904N12.jpg

250904O12.jpg

The U.S. ISM Services PMI increased to 52.0 in August after falling to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index had been declining since it reached 53.5 in February. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.0 for August.

The ISM Composite Index combines the services index and the manufacturing index released on Tuesday. This index rose to 51.6 in August from 49.8 in July. This also was the highest level in six months.

Amongst the services component series, the business activity index rose to 55.0 last month after falling to 52.6 in July. Twenty-three percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while 14.2% reported decline. The new orders index increased to 56.0 from 50.3 in July. Twenty-seven percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved orders while a lessened 16.2% reported decline. The employment series was little-changed in August at 46.5, after falling from 47.2 in June. A lessened 10.3% (NSA) of respondents reported increased employment while a lower 16.8% reported decline. Working lower, the supplier delivery series fell to 50.3 in August after rising to 51.0 in July. Four percent of respondents (NSA) reported faster delivery speeds while 4.5% reported slower speeds.

On the inflation front, the prices index eased to 69.2 after surging to 69.9 in July. A lessened 36.7% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 2.6% reported lower prices. The index has increased from its December 2023 53.1.

Additionally, the new export orders index eased to 47.3 (NSA) in July following a decline to 47.9 in July. Twelve percent of survey respondents reported higher exports while 16.9% reported decline. The imports index surged to 54.6 last month after falling to 45.9 in July. A higher 18.9%% of respondents reported higher imports while a lessened 9.8% reported decline. The inventory change index rose to 53.2 from 51.8 and the order backlog index fell to 40.4 in August after rising to 44.3 in July. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries.

The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250904P12.jpg

250904Q12.jpg

- Total index rebounds to six-month high.	
- Business activity and new orders improve.
- Prices index eases.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Increases in August

250904J5.jpg

250904K5.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 54,000 (1.1% y/y) during August after increasing 106,000 in July, revised from 104,000 and declining an unrevised 23,000 in June. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 75,000 increase in August.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 12,000 (0.4% y/y) in August after an 8,000 July rise, revised from 12,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) rose 25,000 (1.1% y/y) in August after increasing 53,000 in July, revised from 46,000. Large business hiring (500+ employees) gained 18,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 47,000 July increase, revised from 46,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 13,000 (1.3% y/y) after increasing 32,000 in July. Construction jobs increased 16,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 13,000 gain in July. Manufacturing jobs declined 7,000 (+0.1% y/y), after two months of moderate increase. Natural resources and mining jobs increased 4,000 (4.1% y/y) in August after rising 11,000 in July.

Service-producing jobs increased 42,000 (1.0% y/y) after a 74,000 July gain. Changes amongst industry sectors were mixed. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 50,000 (3.5% y/y) after increasing 45,000 in July. Professional & business jobs improved 15,000 (0.5% y/y) following a 9,000 increase. Information sector employment rose 7,000 (1.1% y/y) after increasing 9,000.  Working lower, trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 17,000 (+0.3% y/y) after rising 20,000 in July. Education & health services posted a 12,000 decline (+0.2% y/y) after falling 40,000 in July. This was the sixth decline in seven months. Financial activities employment slid 2,000 (+1.9% y/y) after a 28,000 strengthening.

By region, in the Northeast the number of jobs rose 15,000 (1.2% y/y) in August following four consecutive monthly declines. Jobs rose 14,000 (1.3% y/y) in the Midwest after increasing 12,000 in July. In the West, jobs rose 8,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 67,000 increase, and in the South, employment rose 4,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 40,000 July strengthening.

Wage growth for job-stayers continued to moderate in August as year/year growth of median annual pay weakened to 4.4% from 4.5% in July, the slowest pace since June 2021. The slowdown in wage growth for job-stayers was widespread across major industries. Wage growth for job-changers was steady at 7.1% y/y, but down from a high of 16.1% in April 2022.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

250904L5.jpg

250904M5.jpg

- Private payroll job increase is half July’s gain.
- Goods-producing employment slows as factory hiring falls; service-sector jobs also moderate.
- Job-stayer wage growth eases.

Economy in Brief: 2017

Jump to:

Texas Factory Sector Growth Continues to Improve

U.S. Personal Income & Spending Strengthen

French Consumer Confidence Continues to Move South (Not the South of France)

French Consumer Confidence Continues to Move South (Not the South of France)

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

U.S. GDP Growth Remains Firm in Q3, Despite Storm Effects

Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens