Global| Oct 30 2017Texas Factory Sector Growth Continues to Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the October General Business Activity Index rose to 27.6 from 21.3 in September. The index was at the highest point since March 2006. The [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the October General Business Activity Index rose to 27.6 from 21.3 in September. The index was at the highest point since March 2006. The production index increased to a three-year high while new orders volumes strengthened. The inventories measure also rose. The jobs index inched up to the highest level since April 2014. The workweek and shipments series each slipped m/m, but remained in their recent uptrend.
Finished goods prices received also eased m/m but remained in its uptrend. The raw material prices measure dipped m/m but was up sharply versus the 2016 low. The same pattern was exhibited by the wages & benefits measure.
The index of expected business conditions in six months rose to the highest level since the beginning of the year. Expected shipments volume strengthened along with expected capacity utilization. The future employment index eased and has been moving sideways all year. The measure of expected wages & benefits declined sharply to the lowest level in twelve months.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 27.6 | 21.3 | 17.0 | 0.6 | -8.8 | -12.5 | 8.4 |
| Production | 25.6 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 7.7 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 14.5 |
| Growth Rate of Orders | 12.3 | 9.7 | 11.7 | -2.6 | -7.3 | -11.8 | 4.7 |
| Number of Employees | 16.7 | 16.3 | 9.9 | -0.4 | -4.9 | -0.4 | 11.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 15.3 | 17.5 | 10.2 | 2.9 | -1.6 | -8.5 | 8.3 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 38.5 | 34.5 | 29.2 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 17.4 |
| Production | 46.0 | 46.5 | 43.1 | 33.4 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 42.7 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 36.7 | 35.8 | 37.1 | 24.4 | 24.3 | 20.7 | 31.5 |
| Number of Employees | 34.2 | 41.3 | 30.8 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 28.6 |
| Wages & Benefits | 36.9 | 39.8 | 44.3 | 37.3 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 43.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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