Economy in Brief

The trends in EMU show the 17 country Euro Area current account deficit swinging widely first to a surplus and now plunging to a deficit. It is no longer clear if there is an improving trend in train or not. Goods imports are out [...]

Lower interest rates finally prompted a gain in mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association for total mortgage applications rose 6.9% w/w to 725.4 (55.2% y/y). The increase raised applications to the highest level in five [...]

The results of the April ZEW survey for Germany were more up beat than had been anticipated. Among the 275 institutional investors and financial analysts who participated in the survey, the excess of optimists over pessimists [...]

Chain store sales declined 1.0% last week (+3.2% y/y) following two weeks of strong increase. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at [...]

Pump prices for regular gasoline dipped last week to $3.92 per gallon but still were near their highest since last May. The current level is up sixty nine cents (22%) since year-end. Haver Analytics' seasonally-adjusted price for [...]

There's been no forward momentum recently in U.S. production activity. Industrial production was unchanged last month (3.8% y/y) following an unrevised no-change during February. The latest figure again disappointed Consensus [...]

Housing starts unexpectedly returned to a five month low last month. Despite mild weather, the 5.8% decline (+10.3% y/y) left starts at 654,000 in March. Expectations had been for 700,000. Lower starts of multi-family homes accounted [...]

Retail sales in Japan have risen for the fourth successive month and in February were at their highest level in the last thirteen years, as can be seen in the first chart. Data on retail sales are reported in index form on seasonally [...]