Economy in Brief

The OECD ratio LEI indices for March show that the US Japan Spain and China have readings that are above their trends (ratio to trend index exceeds unity). For EMU the ratio is below unity but it is the same as it was in February at [...]

U.S. import prices fell 0.5% during April after a 1.5% March rise, initially pegged as 1.3%. A 0.2% dip had been expected. The year-to-year increase in import prices decelerated to 0.5%, as oil prices declined. Petroleum prices fell [...]

The U.S. foreign trade deficit during March widened to $51.8B from $45.4B in February, revised from $46.0B. Expectations were for a deficit of $50.0B. Exports increased 2.9% (7.3% y/y) but imports jumped 5.2% (8.4% y/y). In chained [...]

The job market remains on the road to modest recovery. Initial unemployment insurance claims ticked down last week to 367,000 from 368,000 during the prior week, earlier reported as 365,000. Consensus expectations were for 370,000 [...]

The German trade deficit is stabilizing in the €13bln to €14bln range. Nominal export and import growth rates are accelerating sharply; led by import growth. And real export orders are continuing to grow. However Yr/Yr trends on [...]

Chain store sales fell 0.8% last week (+3.3% y/y), the third decline in the last four weeks. Sales began May 0.8% below April when purchases rose 3.4% m/m. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its index of total mortgage applications rose 1.7% w/w to 710.4 (43.1% y/y). Home purchase applications jumped 3.4% w/w (1.1% y/y). Applications to refinance increased 1.3% (64.6% y/y). [...]

During the last few months industrial commodity prices have fluctuated in a relatively narrow range. Nevertheless, at 170.3 the latest price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) was 7.6% [...]