Economy in Brief

Following a 2.0% rise this year, real growth in the U.S. economy is expected to improve to 2.8% in 2014. These are the projections for average real GDP growth by the members of the National Association for Business Economics. [...]

The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January fell to -0.32 from upwardly revised readings of 0.25 and 0.96 in December and November. Despite January weakening, the revisions caused the [...]

The index of Leading Economic indicators, published by the Conference Board, increased 0.2% (2.1% y/y) during January following an unrevised 0.5% December increase. Sixty percent of the component series had a positive influence on the [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its General Business Conditions Index fell sharply in February to -12.5. That followed a January drop to -5.8. Despite the latest decline, it was to be expected for this time of [...]

Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 362,000 (0.0% y/y) during the week ended February 16 versus a little-revised 342,000 a week earlier. Consensus expectations were for 354,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims [...]

The flash PMIs for MFG and Services turned lower in February surprising expectations for both the manufacturing and services components. After a long period of declining that dates to a peak in 2011and has seen several minor cycles in [...]

During January, the consumer price index was unchanged (1.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Expectations were for a 0.1% uptick. However, elsewhere there was newfound strength in pricing power. Prices excluding food and energy [...]

The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline has developed an uptrend. Last week's 14 cent increase to $3.75 per gallon pulled them up 4.3% y/y. The norm for this time of year, when driving is reduced, is for prices to decline. [...]