Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112a.jpg" width="353">
A surprising 2.3% drop in exports caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen sharply to $60.3B in November, by far a new record. Consensus expectations had been for a narrowing to $54.0B versus October&#39;s revised figure of $56.0B.
Goods exports, off 3.8%, fell across the board. A 5.1% (-0.7% y/y) decline in capital goods exports reflected sharp declines in exports of most types of machinery. Computer exports fell as well by 5.5% (+3.7% y/y) and exports of civilian aircraft plunged 8.4% (-34.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports were led 2.6% lower (+7.6% y/y) by steep declines in exports of appliances, furniture and apparel. Exports of food &amp; beverages (-7.1% Y/Y) and industrial supplies +17.0% y/y) also were off sharply. The only major category to show an increase was &quot;other goods&quot;, up 7.2% m/m.
Services exports rose 1.4% (7.2% y/y) due to increased travel and passenger fares.
Total imports rose 1.3% m/m though gains were mixed across categories. Imports of food as well as industrial supplies rose but capital goods imports fell 0.4% (+15.7% y/y) and automotive vehicles were off 2.3% (+4.7% y/y).
Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 0.6% (+14.7% y/y) while imports of petroleum surged 11.8% (79.0% y/y). The value of energy related petroleum products fell with lower oil prices but quantities rose (19.3% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved slightly to $16.6B ($124.1B in 2003) but the US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $7.3B ($66.0B in 2003) as did the deficit with the Asian NICs to $3.1B ($21.2B in 2003). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $10.5B ($97.9B in 2003).
&quot;To Float or Not to Float? Exchange Rate Regimes and Shocks&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be viewed <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-01.pdf"> here</a>.
&quot;U.S.&#150;Mexico Trade: Are We Still Connected?&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/research/busfront/bus0403a.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$60.3B</td>
<td>$56.0B</td>
<td>$40.0B (11/03)</td>
<td>$496.5B</td>
<td>$421.7B</td>
<td>$362.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Total Mortgage Applications Off Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112b.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications dropped last week for the fourth week in the last five according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. The 3.0% w/w decline was on the heels of a 10.6% plunge during the last week of 2004.
Applications to purchase slide another 5.8% after dropping 13.7% the prior week. The level of purchase applications began the new year 16.4% below the December average which fell 0.3% from November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Refi&#39;s recovered a modest 1.1% w/w after dropping 13.1% during the prior two weeks combined.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose slightly to 5.97% versus an average 6.05% during 2004. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.50% last week versus the 2004 average of 5.47%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>587.8</td>
<td>605.7</td>
<td>-16.3%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>393.1</td>
<td>417.3</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,720.5</td>
<td>1,701.3</td>
<td>-21.6%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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A surprising 2.3% drop in exports caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen sharply to $60.3B in November, by far a new record. Consensus expectations had been for a narrowing to $54.0B versus October's revised figure of $56.0B. [...]

Lower Exports Dropped U.S. Trade Deficit To Another Record

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050111b.jpg" width="353">
The January ZEW indicator of analysts&#39; and institutional investors&#39; confidence in Germany&#39;s economic prospects showed a significant rise from December. The optimists outweighed the pessimists by 26.9% in January, compared with a balance of 14.4% in December. The figure is, however, 46 percentage points below that of January 2004.
Although analysts&#39; and institutional investors&#39; confidence is still below the long run median value of 35, the January rise, following one in December is encouraging. The ZEW measure is based on a small sample of 305 participants and it often anticipates changes in the broader IFO measure which is scheduled to be released later this month. The IFO index (2000=100) was 96.2 in December, 2.2% above November.
As Carol Stone pointed out last week, commentators tends to highlight a particular reason for changes in confidence. Last week it was strength in the euro that was a factor in the loss of confidence in the Euro-Zone. This week it is the decline in the price of oil and the impression that Christmas retail sales were better than expected--hard data are not yet available--that are responsible for the January rise in the ZEW measure.
The relation of the price of oil to confidence is shown in the attached chart. While over time, there is only a weak relationship, when the price of oil changes significantly, either up or down, it appears to have an impact on the state of confidence with a rise dampening, and a fall increasing, confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 05</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
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<td class="firstcol">ZEW (Percent balance)</td>
<td>26.9</td>
<td>14.4</td>
<td>72.9</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>-46.0</td>
<td>44.6</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec 04</td>
<td>Nov 04</td>
<td>Oct 04</td>
<td>Sep 04</td>
<td>Aug 04</td>
<td>July 04</td>
<td>Jun 04</td>
<td>May 04</td>
<td>Apr 04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Monthly Average Price of Oil--Brent Crude ($/bbl).</td>
<td>39.12</td>
<td>43.23</td>
<td>49.73</td>
<td>43.42</td>
<td>42.65</td>
<td>38.02</td>
<td>35.32</td>
<td>36.87</td>
<td>33.16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The January ZEW indicator of analysts' and institutional investors' confidence in Germany's economic prospects showed a significant rise from December. The optimists outweighed the pessimists by 26.9% in January, compared with a [...]

German Analysts' and Institutional Investors' Confidence Measure (ZEW Index) Makes a Significant Rise

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050111a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 0.6% last week following four successive weeks of gain, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline may have been prompted by several weather factors including unseasonably warmer temperatures nationwide, snowstorms, and heavy rainfall in Southern California. Nevertheless, sales began January 2.0% above the December average.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell a sharp 1.6% in the latest week (-0.6% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The speech given by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. titled &quot;Interpreting Labor Market Statistics in the Context of Monetary Policy&quot; is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200501072/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/08/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/01/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>447.9</td>
<td>450.8</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
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</tbody>
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</body>
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Chain store sales fell 0.6% last week following four successive weeks of gain, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline may have been prompted by several weather factors including [...]

Heavy Weather Pushed Chain Store Sales Lower

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110f.jpg" width="353">
Taiwan&#39;s deficit on merchandise trade rose to $1,326.1 million in December from $237.6 in November. These were the first two deficits since June of this year and December&#39;s deficit was the largest recorded in the period from January 1978 to date. For the year as a whole, the balance on merchandise trade declined from a surplus of $16,933.3 million in 2003 to $6,257.2 million.
Exports peaked in February at $16,530 million and have trended down since then. Even so, exports for the year were up 20.9%. In December, exports to Asia declined 2.0% and to the U. S, 4.3%. The stronger Euro may have accounted for part of the 3.0% increase in exports to Europe in December
Although the trend in imports of merchandise has been more erratic than that of exports, it has recently become the more robust. Much of the rise is probably due to the increase in the cost of imported oil. The 4% rise in total imports in December was largely the result of a 52.0% rise in imports, mostly oil, from the Middle East.
Trade in Taiwan may be affected by the after effects of the recent tsunami disaster. Exports to the affected areas might be boosted while imports from those areas may decline. While some 60% of Taiwan&#39;s total trade (imports plus exports), is with Asia, most of this trade is with Japan, China and Hong Kong. In 2004, total trade with India, Indonesia, and Thailand, amounted to 4.1% of Taiwan&#39;s trade. (Data for Sri Lanka are not available). Exports were 3.5% of total exports and imports were 4.6% of total imports.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Taiwan *</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04</th>
<th scope="col">Nov&nbsp;04</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 03</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp; Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp; Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">2001 &nbsp; Y/Y%</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>14,205.4</td>
<td>14,679.4</td>
<td>14,717.4</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>10.4</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>-17.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To Asia</td>
<td>8,771.4</td>
<td>8,953.4</td>
<td>8,184.8</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>7.17</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 26.7</td>
<td>15.32</td>
<td>15.2</td>
<td>-15.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To US</td>
<td>2,437.2</td>
<td>2,487.0</td>
<td>2,341.5</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
<td>22.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 32.3</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>-12.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To Europe&nbsp;</td>
<td>1,918.0</td>
<td>1,862.0</td>
<td>1,905.0</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14.9</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>-6.3</td>
<td>-16.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>15,532.0</td>
<td>14,937.0</td>
<td>12,826.1</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>21.1</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 32.2</td>
<td>13.1</td>
<td>.94</td>
<td>-23.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From Asia</td>
<td>8,594.5</td>
<td>8,943.8</td>
<td>7,190.8</td>
<td>-4.41</td>
<td>18.9</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 32.3</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>9.3</td>
<td>-25.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From US</td>
<td>2,063.4</td>
<td>1,820.5</td>
<td>1,835.2</td>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29.1</td>
<td>-7.0</td>
<td>-27.5</td>
<td>27.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From Europe</td>
<td>1,964.5</td>
<td>1,905.1</td>
<td>1,835.0</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>25.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 31.8</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>-21.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From Middle East</td>
<td>1,544.2</td>
<td>1,016.1</td>
<td>1,569.4</td>
<td>52.0</td>
<td>36.0</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 35.2</td>
<td>43.7</td>
<td>9.8</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>M/M Dif</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp; Dif</td>
<td>Y/Y Dif</td>
<td>Y/Y Dif</td>
<td>Y/Y Dif</td>
<td>Y/Y Dif</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance</td>
<td>-1,326.1</td>
<td>-2,376</td>
<td>588.6</td>
<td>-1,069.0</td>
<td>-1,915.7</td>
<td>-10,676.1</td>
<td>-1,33.1</td>
<td>2,437.4</td>
<td>7,319.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Taiwan's deficit on merchandise trade rose to $1,326.1 million in December from $237.6 in November. These were the first two deficits since June of this year and December's deficit was the largest recorded in the period from January [...]

A Big Merchandise Trade Deficit for Taiwan in December and a Reduced Surplus for the Year

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110a.jpg" width="353">
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) fell a sharp 1.8% in the closing week of 2004.
The decline was due to higher claims for jobless insurance and higher bond yields and lowered the Indexes&#39; smoothed six month growth rate to 0.7%, the lowest in nearly one month.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110b.jpg" width="353"> 
During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and the quarterly change in US real GDP. There has been over the last ten years a 71% correlation between the y/y change in the ECRI leaders and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board.
Visit the <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/"> Economic Cycle Research Institute</a> for analysis of US and international business cycles at .

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Economic Cycle Research Institute&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/24/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Weekly Leading Index</td>
<td>131.4</td>
<td>133.8</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>132.5</td>
<td>124.8</td>
<td>119.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; 6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
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</tbody>
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The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) fell a sharp 1.8% in the closing week of 2004. The decline was due to higher claims for jobless insurance and higher bond yields and [...]

ECRI Leading Economic Index Down Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Big 7 economies in the OECD continued to move sideways in November and was at roughly the same level as in March of last year. Six month growth in the index fell to 0.1%, its weakest since the spring of 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD and the change in the leading index.
Growth in the leading index for the US economy again was negative, pulled own by a narrower interest rate yield curve and fewer construction starts.
The leaders for the Japanese economy did emerge from negative territory but at +0.1% indicated only modest improvement.
The leaders for the 15 countries in the European Union remained relatively firm, rising modestly for the fifth consecutive month and that pulled the six month growth rate to 2.3%. Weakness in the leaders for the German and French economies was offset by improvement in the leaders for Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Visit the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/55/0,2340,en_2649_34349_34225655_1_1_1_1,00.html"> OECD</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110d.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110e.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">OECD&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.91</td>
<td>101.86</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>97.58</td>
<td>96.38</td>
<td>94.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Leading Index of the Big 7 economies in the OECD continued to move sideways in November and was at roughly the same level as in March of last year. Six month growth in the index fell to 0.1%, its weakest since the spring of 2003. [...]

OECD Leading Economic Index Weak

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Big 7 economies in the OECD continued to move sideways in November and was at roughly the same level as in March of last year. Six month growth in the index fell to 0.1%, its weakest since the spring of 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD and the change in the leading index.
Growth in the leading index for the US economy again was negative, pulled own by a narrower interest rate yield curve and fewer construction starts.
The leaders for the Japanese economy did emerge from negative territory but at +0.1% indicated only modest improvement.
The leaders for the 15 countries in the European Union remained relatively firm, rising modestly for the fifth consecutive month and that pulled the six month growth rate to 2.3%. Weakness in the leaders for the German and French economies was offset by improvement in the leaders for Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Visit the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/55/0,2340,en_2649_34349_34225655_1_1_1_1,00.html"> OECD</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110d.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110e.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">OECD&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.91</td>
<td>101.86</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>97.58</td>
<td>96.38</td>
<td>94.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
ECRI Leading Economic Index Down Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 10, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110a.jpg" width="353">
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) fell a sharp 1.8% in the closing week of 2004.
The decline was due to higher claims for jobless insurance and higher bond yields and lowered the Indexes&#39; smoothed six month growth rate to 0.7%, the lowest in nearly one month. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050110b.jpg" width="353">
During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and the quarterly change in US real GDP. There has been over the last ten years a 71% correlation between the y/y change in the ECRI leaders and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board.
Visit the <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/"> Economic Cycle Research Institute</a> for analysis of US and international business cycles at .

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Economic Cycle Research Institute&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/24/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Weekly Leading Index</td>
<td>131.4</td>
<td>133.8</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>132.5</td>
<td>124.8</td>
<td>119.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; 6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

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Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ending December 27, from 215,000 in the week of December 20, revised from 214,000. The latest claims represent the third consecutive weekly decline. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 218,750 in the December 27 week, an increase of 1,750 from 217,000 in the prior week, revised from 216,750.

Federal government employees initially filed 812 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 20, after filing 805 claims in the week ended December 13.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined 47,000 to 1.866 million in the week of December 20, from 1.913 million in the week ending December 13, revised from 1.923 million. The four-week moving average was 1.873 million in the December 20 week, a decrease of 17,750 from 1.891 million in the week ending December 13, revised from 1.894 million. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2% in the week of December 20, unchanged from previous week of December 13.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 13,390 (NSA) in the week ended December 13, up from 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 13, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.50%), New Jersey (2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.20%), and California, Illinois and Rhode Island (all 2.10%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Pennsylvania (1.70%), and Texas (1.20%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims declined from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped Again in Latest Week

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. house prices rose 0.4% m/m in October following a 0.1% dip in September (0.0% initially) and a 0.4% rise in August (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. October marked the second m/m increase in three months after no change in July. The HPI reached a record high of 436.75 in October, up 13.4% from its August 2022 low of 384.98. The year-on-year rate of increase eased to 1.7% in October from 1.8% in September—the slowest pace since March 2012—down from 4.7% in October 2024 and well below a high of 18.6% in February 2022.

House prices increased m/m in October (vs. September) across seven of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by West South Central (+1.0% vs. -1.6%), followed by New England (+0.9% vs. -0.3%), East North Central (+0.6% vs. +0.7%), Mountain (+0.6% vs. -0.8%), West North Central (+0.6% vs. +0.6%), Middle Atlantic (+0.4% vs. +0.2%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in two census divisions in October (vs. September): East South Central (-0.4% vs. +0.7%) and South Atlantic (-0.2% vs. -0.2%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in October across most regions, except West South Central and South Atlantic. The y/y pace accelerated in October (vs. September) in four of the nine census divisions: West North Central (+3.8% vs. +3.2%), New England (+3.7% vs. +3.2%), Mountain (+0.3% vs. -0.8%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. -0.6%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in October (vs. September) in East South Central (+1.5% vs. +2.7%), East North Central (+5.1% vs. +5.4%), and Middle Atlantic (+5.3% vs. +5.4%). To the downside, West South Central (-0.7% vs. -1.0%) and South Atlantic (-0.5% vs. +0.4%) were the only regions posting y/y declines in October (vs. September).

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

The minutes to the December 9–10 **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251210.pdf).

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- FHFA HPI +0.4% m/m (+1.7% y/y) in Oct.; second m/m gain in three months.
- House prices up m/m in seven of nine census divisions but down in East South Central (-0.4%) and South Atlantic (-0.2%).
- House prices up y/y in seven of nine regions, led by Middle Atlantic (+5.3%), but down in West South Central (-0.7%) and South Atlantic (-0.5%).

U.S. FHFA House Prices Rebound in October Following September’s Easing

Robert Brusca

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When inflation numbers come hot off the griddle, some part of them might stick to the pan. That's the case this month with Spain’s release of inflation in December. It provides us with the headline for the HICP measure, a headline to the domestic measure, and the domestic measure excluding energy. But it does not release the sector detail for the rest of the report.

However, based upon what's been released, it’s clear that inflation in Spain has picked up. The part of the core that we have in-hand, which is just the portion excluding energy, still appears to be fairly well behaved; however, its gain is still slightly excessive.

**HICP trend**
Spain’s HICP measure in December rose 0.4% after rising by 0.5% in both October and November; those are hot numbers. That translates into a 5.7% annual rate over three months which is hotter than its pace of 4.5% over six months which in turn is hotter than the 12-month increase of 3%. The HCP headline for Spain has clearly been accelerating, the year-over-year rise is too-hot, and the shorter-term metrics are hotter still. This is not good news, and this is not a welcome progression.

**Domestic inflation**
Looking at Spain’s domestic CPI conditions, we find that they are still on the hot side with December showing a headline gain of 0.3% but gains in October and November of 0.5% each, producing a three-month annual rate of 5.4%, which is hotter than its 4.2% over six months, which, in turn, is hotter than the year-over-year gain at 2.9%. And these patterns/results are very similar to the pattern and the readings for the HICP. The domestic inflation picture is too hot over 12 months and accelerating over the shorter periods.

**Domestic inflation ex-energy:** The CPI excluding energy is not as bloated as the HICP or the domestic headline, but it is still a reading on rough terrain. Over 12 months, inflation excluding energy rises at a 2.6% annual rate; that's above the 2% pace sought by the ECB for the community as a whole. Over six months, the reading ramps up to a 3.1% annual rate, again moving the wrong direction and a reading at 3.1% is simply too hot. Over three months, there's a slight deceleration compared to six months but still a rate that is too hot, at 2.9%, and stronger than the 12-month pace. Core inflation is better behaved than headline inflation and both the domestic and the HICP frameworks, but inflation is unruly overall and, for the most part, showing either acceleration or at least a 3-month pace stronger than its 12-month pace. None of this is what the ECB is looking for or trying to achieve.

**Beyond the missing details**
The details of the Spanish report are missing for December because the data are too preliminary for the authorities to post. However, if we look at the sequential pace of inflation over 12 months, six months, and three months on a lagged basis, it is looking at data that are up-to-date through November rather than through December what's the numbers that are generally excessive and they show too much acceleration moving from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Over 12 months compared to a year ago, five of nine categories show inflation accelerating. Over 6 months compared to 12 months, four categories are accelerating. Over 3 months compared to 6 months, six of the nine categories are accelerating. These acceleration tendencies are worrisome.

In addition, over 12 months, six of nine categories have a pace above 2%. Over 6 months, six of nine categories have annualized gains above 2%, and over 3 months, the lagged data show six of nine categories with gains above 2%. Only apparel shows inflation tempered on all horizons (at or below 2%). Food, housing, transport, education and other all show above 2% inflation on all horizons.

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**Summing up-challenging times ahead?**
Is Spain past its best inflation performance? Is the inflation worm going to begin to turn more broadly? These are trends we will need to watch. Inflation broadly has slowed or stopped its declines and largely done that in Europe as well as in the United States. Inflation is now hovering at a pace that is too strong- maybe tolerable or maybe not. Central banks need to decide and tell us what a 2% target means. Then, the question of what’s next hangs in the air. U.K. inflation remains excessive but has stepped down as the economy has begun to experience some significantly weaker economic data. Is that the future? Is it stagflation? Is it recovering from a slowdown and higher rates of interest and inflation? Or will there be continued inflation progress? Open the door on 2026…the envelope… please.

Spain

Spanish Inflation Flares at Year-End

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General business activity in Texas declined further in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The overall measure, the general business activity index, fell to -10.9 in December, the lowest level since June, from -10.4 in November and -5.0 in October. The index, while above a low of -35.8 in April, was well below a high of +14.1 in January and +4.5 in December 2024. The index had been in negative territory from February through December 2025, except for a one-month positive reading of +0.9 in July. In December, 12.7% of respondents reported improved business activity, down from 18.9% in November, while 23.6% of respondents reported worsened business conditions, down from November's 29.3%. The company outlook index dropped to -11.9 in December, the fourth consecutive negative reading and the lowest since April, from -6.3 in November. Just 10.8% of respondents expected improved company outlook this month while 22.7% expected deterioration. Data were collected between December 15 and 23 from 74 Texas manufacturers.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, plunged to -3.2 in December after a 15.3-point jump to 20.5 in November, indicating production contracted for the first time since February. A lessened 17.2% of respondents reported higher production this month while an increased 20.4% reported a decline. The capacity utilization index plummeted to -4.5 in December, the lowest reading since February, following a four-year-high 19.4 in November; it was up from a low of -15.0 in January 2024 but well below a record-high 46.3 in March 2021.

The growth rate of orders index declined steeply to -16.0 in December from -1.3 in November, marking the weakest of four successive negative readings and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -22.0 in April and a low of -24.3 in November 2023 but significantly below a peak of 29.6 in April 2021. The new orders index fell to -6.4 this month after rising to 4.8 in November, indicating a decline in demand for the third time in four months and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -20.0 in April and a low of -21.8 in November 2022 but well below a high of 22.6 in February 2022 and a record-high 38.6 in April 2021. The shipments index plunged to -10.6 this month after jumping to 15.1 in November, marking its first negative reading since June and the lowest since July 2024. The unfilled orders index dropped to -13.5 in December from -6.6 in November, registering the 16th straight negative reading and the lowest since November 2024. The index was below a high of 1.4 in August 2024 but above a low of -26.3 in July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery time index increased to 3.3 this month, the highest reading since March, from -8.4 in November.

Labor market indexes showed flat employment conditions and shorter workweeks in December. The employment index slipped to -1.1 this month from 1.2 in November, marking its first negative reading since September, with the near-zero level indicating little change in employment. The latest reading, while up from a low of -9.7 in January 2024, was far below a high of 17.9 in January 2023 and a record-high 31.8 in April 2021. A lessened 12.3% of respondents reported net hiring in December while 13.4% reported net layoffs. The hours worked index fell sharply to -7.5 this month, the lowest reading since June, after rising to 9.9 in November. Meanwhile, the wages & benefits index climbed to 21.8 in December, the highest level since October 2024 and near its series average of 21.0, up from 15.4 in November; nevertheless, having been trending downward since a peak of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflationary pressures were little changed this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 8.2 in December following a 3.1-point rise to 10.8 in November; it was up from a low of -7.0 in November 2023 but meaningfully below a high of 47.4 in March 2022 and a peak of 51.4 in October 2021. In December, 13.1% of respondents reported raising prices while only 4.9% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 36.0 this month, the highest reading since September, after a 1.9-point increase to 35.3 in November. The index was well above a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but significantly below 73.2 in March 2022 and a record-high 83.8 in November 2021.

Expectations on future manufacturing activity remained positive this month. The future general business activity index dipped to 10.8 in December after rising to 11.0 in November, registering the eighth straight positive reading. The future production index rose to a four-month-high 34.2 from November’s 33.7. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity also rose in December (vs. November), signaling increased activity six months ahead: company outlook (16.5 vs. 16.2), shipments (33.9 vs. 27.0), wages & benefits (42.5 vs. 39.1), and capital expenditures (17.7 vs. 12.9). Meanwhile, future indexes for capacity utilization (28.9 vs. 34.0), new orders (30.5 vs. 39.2), growth rate of new orders (24.9 vs. 27.8), and employment (20.9 vs. 22.3) declined in December (vs. November), but they remained in positive territory.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General Business Activity down in Dec. to -10.9, lowest level since June.
- Company Outlook (-11.9) negative for the fourth straight mth. and at an eight-month low; Production (-3.2) negative for the first time since Feb.
- New Orders Growth (-16.0) and New Orders (-6.4) at a six-month low.
- Employment (-1.1) negative for the first time since Sept.
- Prices Received down 2.6 pts. to 8.2; Prices Paid up 0.7 pts. to a three-month-high 36.0.
- Future General Business Activity down to 10.8, still positive for the eighth consecutive mth.

Texas General Business Activity Still Negative in December, But Expectations Remain Positive

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 3.3% m/m to 79.2 in November after increases of 2.4% in October (+1.9% initially) and 0.1% in September (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The November reading registered the fourth consecutive m/m gain after declining in July and June. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.6% in November, the highest since August, from 0.1% in October, though still below +6.0% y/y in November 2024. Despite recent gains, the PHSI had fallen 36.7% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m rise in November pending home sales coincided with a decline in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 6.24% in November, the lowest since September 2024, down from 6.25% in October and 6.35% in September. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained higher than a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales rose m/m in November across all four major regions. Sales in the West recovered 9.2% (2.4% y/y) in November, the first m/m increase since August, following a 1.4% decline in October. Sales in the South rose 2.4% (3.3% y/y), the fourth straight m/m rise, on top of a 2.7% October advance. Sales in the Northeast grew 1.8% (1.8% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 2.3% October gain. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.3% (2.2% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 5.3% November rebound.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI +3.3% (+2.6% y/y) in Nov., driven by lower mortgage rates.
- Home sales m/m up in all four major regions, w/ the highest rate in the West (+9.2%).
- Home sales y/y up across all regions, w/ the highest rate in the South (+3.3%).

Economy in Brief: 2005

Jump to:

Lower Exports Dropped U.S. Trade Deficit To Another Record

German Analysts' and Institutional Investors' Confidence Measure (ZEW Index) Makes a Significant Rise

Heavy Weather Pushed Chain Store Sales Lower

Heavy Weather Pushed Chain Store Sales Lower

A Big Merchandise Trade Deficit for Taiwan in December and a Reduced Surplus for the Year

ECRI Leading Economic Index Down Sharply

OECD Leading Economic Index Weak

OECD Leading Economic Index Weak