Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802e.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales jumped 0.9% during the final week of July according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fifth consecutive gain lifted sales in July 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged (0.3% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>462.8</td>
<td>456.9</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Chain store sales jumped 0.9% during the final week of July according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fifth consecutive gain lifted sales in July 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell [...]

Chain Store Sales Ended July Strong

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802c.jpg" width="353">
Factory inventories fell in June, down modestly for the third consecutive month. Three month growth in inventories fell to -0.9% (AR) versus the peak rate of accumulation near 12% in March and 7.5% growth last year. The slowdown accounts for much of this year&#39;s slowdown in factory output growth.
Slower rates of inventory accumulation continue notable in the primary metals industry where three month growth fell to 0.5% versus the high of 42.2% and in the electrical equipment industry where growth in inventories fell to 1.8% versus an 18.5% peak. The level of computer inventories has been declining this year versus a peak growth rate of 13% last summer.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802d.jpg" width="353">
Factory shipments fell slightly in June and three month growth fell to 3.7% versus the high above 20% early last year.
Orders to the factory sector jumped 1.0% and the rise in durable goods orders was revised up to 2.0% from the advance report of a 1.4% gain.
Unfilled orders surged another 2.8% as backlogs of aircraft &amp; parts jumped 5.8% (30.2% y/y). Less transportation altogether backlogs rose 1.9% (9.5% y/y) boosted by a 2.5% (14.8% y/y) gain in machinery. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments outside of transportation jumped the highest level since 2002.<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/07/Gali.pdf"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Factory inventories fell in June, down modestly for the third consecutive month. Three month growth in inventories fell to -0.9% (AR) versus the peak rate of accumulation near 12% in March and 7.5% growth last year. The slowdown [...]

U.S. Factory Inventories Down Again

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802b.jpg" width="353">
June personal income rose 0.5% following an unrevised 0.2% gain in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. The strength in the total&#39;s rise owed to a 2.0% (6.1% y/y) increase in proprietors&#39; income.
Higher receipts from assets also lifted earnings last month as interest income rose 1.5% (4.3% y/y) and dividend income rose 0.8% (9.5% y/y).
Wages &amp; salaries rose a modest 0.2% (7.4% y/y) following a slim 0.1% gain in May. Factory sector wages fell 0.2% (5.7% y/y) though service sector wages rebounded 0.3% (8.8% y/y) following no change the prior month.
Disposable personal income jumped 0.5% (5.3% y/y) following a 0.2% increase in May. Adjusted for price inflation take home pay rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) though upward revisions to pricing lowered slightly recent y/y gains.
Matching Consensus expectations, personal consumption expenditures surged 0.8% on the strength of higher sales of light vehicles. Spending on durables overall reversed the May decline with a 2.9% (8.0% y/y) increase. Nondurables spending rose a moderate 0.7% (7.3% y/y) and spending on services increased 0.5% (6.2% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802a.jpg" width="353">
The personal savings rate fell to 0.0% though the household sector&#39;s net worth (from the Flow of Funds Accounts) has been rising, helped by a 16% increase in owners&#39; equity in real estate.
The PCE chain price index fell slightly due to a 0.3% decline in gasoline prices which subsequently rose 6.2% in July. In August, gas prices are about equal to the prior month&#39;s average of $2.29. Less food &amp; energy, prices also were unchanged as durable goods prices fell 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) and services prices increased a moderate 0.2% (2.9% y/y).
Closing the Gap from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20050801/cover.pdf"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

June personal income rose 0.5% following an unrevised 0.2% gain in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. The strength in the total's rise owed to a 2.0% (6.1% y/y) increase in proprietors' income. Higher receipts [...]

June Growth in U.S. Personal Income Firm

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802b.jpg" width="353">
June personal income rose 0.5% following an unrevised 0.2% gain in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. The strength in the total&#39;s rise owed to a 2.0% (6.1% y/y) increase in proprietors&#39; income.
Higher receipts from assets also lifted earnings last month as interest income rose 1.5% (4.3% y/y) and dividend income rose 0.8% (9.5% y/y).
Wages &amp; salaries rose a modest 0.2% (7.4% y/y) following a slim 0.1% gain in May. Factory sector wages fell 0.2% (5.7% y/y) though service sector wages rebounded 0.3% (8.8% y/y) following no change the prior month.
Disposable personal income jumped 0.5% (5.3% y/y) following a 0.2% increase in May. Adjusted for price inflation take home pay rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) though upward revisions to pricing lowered slightly recent y/y gains.
Matching Consensus expectations, personal consumption expenditures surged 0.8% on the strength of higher sales of light vehicles. Spending on durables overall reversed the May decline with a 2.9% (8.0% y/y) increase. Nondurables spending rose a moderate 0.7% (7.3% y/y) and spending on services increased 0.5% (6.2% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802a.jpg" width="353">
The personal savings rate fell to 0.0% though the household sector&#39;s net worth (from the Flow of Funds Accounts) has been rising, helped by a 16% increase in owners&#39; equity in real estate.
The PCE chain price index fell slightly due to a 0.3% decline in gasoline prices which subsequently rose 6.2% in July. In August, gas prices are about equal to the prior month&#39;s average of $2.29. Less food &amp; energy, prices also were unchanged as durable goods prices fell 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) and services prices increased a moderate 0.2% (2.9% y/y).
Closing the Gap from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20050801/cover.pdf"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Less food &amp; energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Factory Inventories Down Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 2, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802c.jpg" width="353">
Factory inventories fell in June, down modestly for the third consecutive month. Three month growth in inventories fell to -0.9% (AR) versus the peak rate of accumulation near 12% in March and 7.5% growth last year. The slowdown accounts for much of this year&#39;s slowdown in factory output growth.
Slower rates of inventory accumulation continue notable in the primary metals industry where three month growth fell to 0.5% versus the high of 42.2% and in the electrical equipment industry where growth in inventories fell to 1.8% versus an 18.5% peak. The level of computer inventories has been declining this year versus a peak growth rate of 13% last summer.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802d.jpg" width="353">
Factory shipments fell slightly in June and three month growth fell to 3.7% versus the high above 20% early last year.
Orders to the factory sector jumped 1.0% and the rise in durable goods orders was revised up to 2.0% from the advance report of a 1.4% gain.
Unfilled orders surged another 2.8% as backlogs of aircraft &amp; parts jumped 5.8% (30.2% y/y). Less transportation altogether backlogs rose 1.9% (9.5% y/y) boosted by a 2.5% (14.8% y/y) gain in machinery. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments outside of transportation jumped the highest level since 2002.<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/07/Gali.pdf"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Ended July Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 2, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802e.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales jumped 0.9% during the final week of July according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fifth consecutive gain lifted sales in July 0.4% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged (0.3% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>462.8</td>
<td>456.9</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
UK's CBI Survey of Distributive Trades Confirms Slowdown in Retail Trade and Expects Continued Weakness 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> August 2, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802g.jpg" width="353">
The results of the CBI (Confederation of British Industries) survey of the distributive trades released today show that the balance of opinion on the volume of retail sales improved minimally in July to -18 from -19 in June, the lowest figure since the survey began in 1983. Expectations of the volume of retail sales have caught up with the reported volumes and suggest that August will once again show only a minimal improvement to a balance of -17. The balance of reported sales volume for the retail sector has shown only one modest positive number--2 in February--since the beginning of the year.
There was more positive news for wholesale trade as can be seen in the first chart which shows the balance on reported sales volume for retail and wholesale trade. Although the balance on reported wholesale trade sales volume declined to 22 from 32 in June, the balance is significantly positive. Expected sales volume for August, however, are down to a positive 10. The balance on reported motor trade sales volume has been positive since May, but decreasing and the expected balance for August is once again negative at -4.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802h.jpg" width="353">
Balances of opinions on the annual growth of sales volume are also reported. In the most recent survey, Grocers showed the most positive results and Furniture and Carpet stores, the most dismal, as seen in the second chart.
The CBI Distributive Trades survey covers 20,000 outlets of firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. The most recent survey was conducted between June 29 and July 20, 2005 and included 125 responses.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U9/@U9.HTM">CBI Distributive Trade Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug 05</th>
<th scope="col">July 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">May&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">April&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 05&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Feb 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jan&nbsp; 05</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Trade Sales Volume</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expected</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Reported</td>
<td></td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Wholesale Trade Sales Volume</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expected</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Reported</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Motor Trade Sales Volume</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expected</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Reported</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Growth in Annual Sales Volume--Reported</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Grocers</td>
<td></td>
<td>21</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Furniture and Carpets</td>
<td></td>
<td>-92</td>
<td>-84</td>
<td>-77</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>-72</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>-16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802f.jpg" width="353">
While the number of employed persons in Japan declined 0.26% in June from May to 64.18 million on a seasonally unadjusted basis, it was 0.69% above the June, 2004 figure. The number of unemployed persons declined by 8.8% in May to June and was 9.4% below June, 2004. As a result, the unemployment rate is now 4.2% compared with 4.6% in May, 2005 and also in June, 2004.
June also saw a year-to-year rise in Japanese wages. The average monthly cash wage in Japan amounted to 467,814 Yen or $4,156 at the current rate of exchange. The granting of bonuses in June and December distorts the month to month changes in the wage data that are available only on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The year to year changes are the more meaningful comparisons. In June, cash wages were almost 0.7% above the comparable figure of last year.
Cash Earnings are equal to money earned before deductions for income tax, social insurance contribution, union dues and payment for good purchased, etc. In the Haver Data Base for Japan there is a breakdown of cash earnings. Total cash earnings consist of Contractual Cash Earnings and Bonuses. Contractual Cash Earnings, in turn are the sum of Scheduled Cash Earnings and Overtime Earnings, which include, in addition to over-time payments, other special payments, such as marriage allowances, etc.
In the attached chart we show the year-to-year changes in the Scheduled Cash Earnings and Overtime Earnings. Scheduled cash earnings have shown year-to-year increases in April, May and June of this year, the first increases since April, 2003. Overtime earnings, on the other hand have shown year-to-year increases since mid 2002 and in June were 2.4% above the comparable figure for last year.
Rising employment and wages should augur well for Japanese consumer incomes and spending.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/JAPAN.HTM">Japan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">May 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment and Unemployment (No. of persons in Mil)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employed Persons</td>
<td>64.18</td>
<td>64.35</td>
<td>63.74</td>
<td>-0.26</td>
<td>0.69</td>
<td>63.29</td>
<td>63.16</td>
<td>63.30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployed Persons&nbsp;</td>
<td>2..80</td>
<td>3.07</td>
<td>3.09</td>
<td>-8.79</td>
<td>-9.39</td>
<td>3.13</td>
<td>3.50</td>
<td>3.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate %</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>-0.4*</td>
<td>-0.4*</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly Averages in Yen</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Cash Wages</td>
<td>467,801</td>
<td>276,908</td>
<td>466,932</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>1.27</td>
<td>332,598</td>
<td>341,790</td>
<td>343,219</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Contract Wages</td>
<td>273,712</td>
<td>271,336</td>
<td>272,652</td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>0.39</td>
<td>272,049</td>
<td>278,748</td>
<td>278,873</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Scheduled Wages</td>
<td>254,875</td>
<td>252,332</td>
<td>254,258</td>
<td>1.01</td>
<td>0.24</td>
<td>253,106</td>
<td>260,153</td>
<td>261,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Over-Time</td>
<td>18,837</td>
<td>18,742</td>
<td>18,394</td>
<td>0.51</td>
<td>2.41</td>
<td>18,943</td>
<td>18,595</td>
<td>17,873</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Bonus &amp; Other Wages</td>
<td>194,102</td>
<td>5,833</td>
<td>189,280</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>2.35</td>
<td>60,549</td>
<td>63,042</td>
<td>64,344</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

While the number of employed persons in Japan declined 0.26% in June from May to 64.18 million on a seasonally unadjusted basis, it was 0.69% above the June, 2004 figure. The number of unemployed persons declined by 8.8% in May to [...]

Rises in Japanese Employment and Wages: Good Omens for Japanese Consumer Incomes and Spending

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050801b.jpg" width="353">
The June value of construction put in place fell 0.3% following a deepened decline in May. June was the fifth monthly drop this year. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% increase.
The 2005 declines in construction spending generally have been moderate especially when set against a 7.5% upward spike in February.
Private residential building activity added to earlier month&#39;s declines with a 0.4% dip but remained up 9.1% versus last year. A 12.2% pop in February was driven by improvements. The value of new single family building rose 0.2% (7.6% y/y) for the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
Nonresidential building rose 0.2% following the downwardly revised 2.1% May decline. Multi-retail building was quite strong, up 2.3% (22.1% y/y), led by shopping mall construction which rose 15.8% (-7.2% y/y).
Public construction spending dipped 0.5% after an upwardly revised 3.2% May gain. Construction activity on highways &amp; streets, nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, dipped 0.4% (+8.6% y/y).
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>13.8%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>18.5%</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The June value of construction put in place fell 0.3% following a deepened decline in May. June was the fifth monthly drop this year. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% increase. The 2005 declines in construction spending [...]

U.S. Construction Spending Down for Fifth Month This Year

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050801a.jpg" width="353">
The Institute of Supply Management reported that last month the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector jumped nearly three points from June to 56.6. The latest is the highest level for the index since December and easily beat Consensus expectations for a modest up tick to 54.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Pricing in the factory sector weakened further with the prices paid index falling below 50, to 48.5, for the first time since February 2002.
Production strengthened materially as indicated by a 5.6 jump in the index to 61.2, its highest level since last September. Inventory restocking apparently provided little of the boost to output as the inventory index fell to the lowest level since April 2004.
New orders added to the strong gain in June and rose to the year&#39;s highest level of 60.6 with higher export orders leading the gain. The export order index recovered all of the prior month&#39;s drop with a 5.5 point jump to 55.9.
Job growth improved as well. After two months below the break even level of 50 the employment index rose 3.3 points to 53.2, its highest since March. During the last twenty years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM">ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>56.6</td>
<td>53.8</td>
<td>61.6</td>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>52.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders Index</td>
<td>60.6</td>
<td>57.2</td>
<td>63.8</td>
<td>63.5</td>
<td>57.9</td>
<td>56.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
<td>48.5</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>77.0</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>57.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Institute of Supply Management reported that last month the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector jumped nearly three points from June to 56.6. The latest is the highest level for the index since December and [...]

July ISM Factory Index Highest This Year

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050801a.jpg" width="353">
The Institute of Supply Management reported that last month the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector jumped nearly three points from June to 56.6. The latest is the highest level for the index since December and easily beat Consensus expectations for a modest up tick to 54.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Pricing in the factory sector weakened further with the prices paid index falling below 50, to 48.5, for the first time since February 2002.
Production strengthened materially as indicated by a 5.6 jump in the index to 61.2, its highest level since last September. Inventory restocking apparently provided little of the boost to output as the inventory index fell to the lowest level since April 2004.
New orders added to the strong gain in June and rose to the year&#39;s highest level of 60.6 with higher export orders leading the gain. The export order index recovered all of the prior month&#39;s drop with a 5.5 point jump to 55.9.
Job growth improved as well. After two months below the break even level of 50 the employment index rose 3.3 points to 53.2, its highest since March. During the last twenty years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM">ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>56.6</td>
<td>53.8</td>
<td>61.6</td>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>52.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders Index</td>
<td>60.6</td>
<td>57.2</td>
<td>63.8</td>
<td>63.5</td>
<td>57.9</td>
<td>56.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
<td>48.5</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>77.0</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>57.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Construction Spending Down for Fifth Month This Year  
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 1, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050801b.jpg" width="353">
The June value of construction put in place fell 0.3% following a deepened decline in May. June was the fifth monthly drop this year. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% increase.
The 2005 declines in construction spending generally have been moderate especially when set against a 7.5% upward spike in February.
Private residential building activity added to earlier month&#39;s declines with a 0.4% dip but remained up 9.1% versus last year. A 12.2% pop in February was driven by improvements. The value of new single family building rose 0.2% (7.6% y/y) for the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
Nonresidential building rose 0.2% following the downwardly revised 2.1% May decline. Multi-retail building was quite strong, up 2.3% (22.1% y/y), led by shopping mall construction which rose 15.8% (-7.2% y/y).
Public construction spending dipped 0.5% after an upwardly revised 3.2% May gain. Construction activity on highways &amp; streets, nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, dipped 0.4% (+8.6% y/y).
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>13.8%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>18.5%</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 Rises in Japanese Employment and Wages: Good Omens for Japanese Consumer Incomes and Spending 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> August 1, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050802f.jpg" width="353">
While the number of employed persons in Japan declined 0.26% in June from May to 64.18 million on a seasonally unadjusted basis, it was 0.69% above the June, 2004 figure. The number of unemployed persons declined by 8.8% in May to June and was 9.4% below June, 2004. As a result, the unemployment rate is now 4.2% compared with 4.6% in May, 2005 and also in June, 2004.
June also saw a year-to-year rise in Japanese wages. The average monthly cash wage in Japan amounted to 467,814 Yen or $4,156 at the current rate of exchange. The granting of bonuses in June and December distorts the month to month changes in the wage data that are available only on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The year to year changes are the more meaningful comparisons. In June, cash wages were almost 0.7% above the comparable figure of last year.
Cash Earnings are equal to money earned before deductions for income tax, social insurance contribution, union dues and payment for good purchased, etc. In the Haver Data Base for Japan there is a breakdown of cash earnings. Total cash earnings consist of Contractual Cash Earnings and Bonuses. Contractual Cash Earnings, in turn are the sum of Scheduled Cash Earnings and Overtime Earnings, which include, in addition to over-time payments, other special payments, such as marriage allowances, etc.
In the attached chart we show the year-to-year changes in the Scheduled Cash Earnings and Overtime Earnings. Scheduled cash earnings have shown year-to-year increases in April, May and June of this year, the first increases since April, 2003. Overtime earnings, on the other hand have shown year-to-year increases since mid 2002 and in June were 2.4% above the comparable figure for last year.
Rising employment and wages should augur well for Japanese consumer incomes and spending.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/JAPAN.HTM">Japan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">May 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment and Unemployment (No. of persons in Mil)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employed Persons</td>
<td>64.18</td>
<td>64.35</td>
<td>63.74</td>
<td>-0.26</td>
<td>0.69</td>
<td>63.29</td>
<td>63.16</td>
<td>63.30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployed Persons&nbsp;</td>
<td>2..80</td>
<td>3.07</td>
<td>3.09</td>
<td>-8.79</td>
<td>-9.39</td>
<td>3.13</td>
<td>3.50</td>
<td>3.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate %</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>-0.4*</td>
<td>-0.4*</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly Averages in Yen</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Cash Wages</td>
<td>467,801</td>
<td>276,908</td>
<td>466,932</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>1.27</td>
<td>332,598</td>
<td>341,790</td>
<td>343,219</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Contract Wages</td>
<td>273,712</td>
<td>271,336</td>
<td>272,652</td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>0.39</td>
<td>272,049</td>
<td>278,748</td>
<td>278,873</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Scheduled Wages</td>
<td>254,875</td>
<td>252,332</td>
<td>254,258</td>
<td>1.01</td>
<td>0.24</td>
<td>253,106</td>
<td>260,153</td>
<td>261,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Over-Time</td>
<td>18,837</td>
<td>18,742</td>
<td>18,394</td>
<td>0.51</td>
<td>2.41</td>
<td>18,943</td>
<td>18,595</td>
<td>17,873</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Bonus &amp; Other Wages</td>
<td>194,102</td>
<td>5,833</td>
<td>189,280</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>2.35</td>
<td>60,549</td>
<td>63,042</td>
<td>64,344</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**The US housing market**
This first chart below highlights the growing downside risks to the US economic outlook stemming from the housing market. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index has slowed sharply from the pandemic-era surge, while the NAHB (National Association of Homebuilders) housing market index has weakened to levels historically associated with falling home prices. Housing matters because it is not just a cyclical sector but also a key transmission channel for the broader economy: consumer confidence, household balance sheets and credit conditions are all heavily influenced by shifts in the housing market.

250821Z1.jpg

**China’s economy**
The latest run of data from China has also reinforced downside risks for the broader world economy. As the Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices show below, China-specific data have more consistently undershot expectations in recent days. China’s July releases in particular disappointed: retail sales growth slowed to just 3.7% y/y, with weakness in autos and furniture hinting that earlier policy-driven boosts are fading. Industrial output and fixed-asset investment also came in below consensus, while property prices continued to fall and retail sector investment contracted by double digits. Even the labour market showed strain, with unemployment edging higher. The worry is not just China’s slowdown in isolation, but the spillovers. Softer Chinese demand feeds directly into global supply chains, commodity markets, and regional trade partners. Combined with tariff and non-tariff headwinds from the US, the risk is that China’s structural challenges spill into weaker global growth momentum.

250821Z2.jpg

**UK inflation** 
Persistently high services inflation remains one of the biggest headaches for UK monetary policy - and the UK is far from unique in that regard. Services are wage- and demand-sensitive, and their stickiness complicates the calibration of monetary policy even as broader disinflation takes hold. This week’s July upside surprise to UK services inflation was driven in no small part by airfares, which spiked 30% month-on-month – the largest July rise on record. While such volatility may prove temporary, it nonetheless lifted year-on-year services inflation to 5.0%, well above comfort levels. Still, the offsets are important: stripping out airfares and other volatile components, underlying services momentum appears to have eased, while broader data on wages, employment, and activity point to cooling demand. Nevertheless, this tension – headline stickiness versus softer underlying trends – underscores why the Bank of England is treading carefully.

250821Z3.jpg

**Inflation expectations and energy**
US medium-term inflation expectations have been unusually decoupling from oil prices in recent weeks. Normally, falling oil prices would help anchor breakevens, yet the 5-year forward inflation rate has edged higher of late even as WTI has slipped. This probably reflects US tariff policies that are shifting inflation dynamics away from energy and toward trade-related costs. At the same time, a weaker dollar has lifted imported prices, and the upward creep in expectations suggests markets may be more actively questioning whether the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance is sufficient to contain medium-term inflation risks.

250821Z4.jpg

**Clean energy**
Pivoting to more structural issues, the stark divergence between the global clean energy equity market index and the broader S&P 500 underlines the mounting challenges facing the renewables sector at present. While US equities have pushed to record highs, clean energy stocks have languished, weighed down by policy uncertainty, higher financing costs, and a more sceptical public mood. In the US, shifting political winds and uneven implementation of green subsidies have clouded the outlook for investment, while globally, resistance to renewables has grown as consumers and businesses grapple with high energy bills. Rising interest rates have further undermined the economics of capital-intensive clean energy projects, eroding returns and delaying investment pipelines. At the same time, bottlenecks in transmission infrastructure, permitting delays, and questions over the pace of the net-zero transition have all dented confidence. The result is a sector underperforming dramatically even as the urgency of the climate challenge grows.

250821Z5.jpg

**Renewables versus non-renewables**
Global energy consumption data show how limited—and in some respects, stalled—the transition away from fossil fuels has become. Oil, gas, and coal still dominate the energy mix, with shares that have proven remarkably resilient over the past several years. In fact, coal use has ticked higher of late as countries turned back to cheaper, more secure supplies amid energy price spikes and supply disruptions. While renewables have grown rapidly in percentage terms, their absolute contribution remains small compared with the scale of fossil fuel demand. Nuclear and hydro have also struggled to gain ground, leaving the overall mix looking more like a story of continuity than transformation. The result is a global transition that has not just slowed but, in key areas, has partially reversed—highlighting the gulf between climate ambitions and energy realities.

250821Z6.jpg

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In the US, housing indicators are flashing warnings about household balance sheets and credit channels (chart 1), while China’s latest data—covering retail sales, industrial output, and property—underscore persistent weakness (chart 2). In the UK, this week’s data showing sticky services inflation is complicating the Bank of England’s easing path (chat 3), while back in the US, medium-term inflation expectations have been rising despite softer oil prices (chart 4), hinting at a more disruptive role for trade policy. Against this cyclical backdrop sit deeper structural challenges: global energy consumption remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, the clean energy sector has lost momentum amid high costs and policy uncertainty, and equity markets have punished renewables even as climate imperatives intensify (charts 5 and 6). Together, these dynamics suggest that while markets continue to trade on optimism, the mix of weak housing signals, patchy Chinese demand, sticky inflation, and an uneven energy transition potentially leaves the global outlook more fragile than headline performance implies.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/1GqSlFq3gfZuMYDWhif8Ht?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Cracks Beneath The Shine

250821J8.jpg

250821K8.jpg

Existing home sales rose 2.0% (0.8% y/y) to 4.01 million (SAAR) in July after falling 2.7% in June to an unrevised to 3.93 million and rising 1.0% to 4.04 million in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 3.91 million unit sales in July. Last month’s sales decline accompanied a decline in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to 6.72% from 6.82% in June. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rose 2.0% (1.1% y/y) during July to 3.64 million units after a 3.0% decline to 3.57 million in June and a 1.4% May rise to 3.68 million. Sales of condos and co-ops rose 2.8% (-2.6% y/y) to 370,000 after holding steady in June.

Sales were mixed across the country last month. Sales in the Northeast increased 8.7% (2.0% y/y) to 500,000 following an 8.0% June decline. Sales in the South improved 2.2% both m/m and y/y to 1.85 million, after falling 2.2% in June. Sales in the West rose 1.4% (-4.0% y/y) to 720,000 after a 1.4% June gain. Falling by 1.1% (+1.1% y/y) to 940,000 were sales in the Midwest after falling 4.0% in June.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) in July weakened 2.4% (+0.2% y/y) from the June record to $422,400. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y) to $428,500 in July, and the median price of condos & co-ops declined 3.1% (-1.2% y/y) to $362,600 last month. Prices for homes in the West declined 1.1% (-1.4% y/y) to $620,700 while prices in the Northeast fell 6.3% (+0.8% y/y) to $509,300. In the South, prices were off 1.8% (-0.6% y/y) to $367,400 while in the Midwest, home prices fell 1.1% (+3.9% y/y) to $333,800.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 0.6% (15.7% y/y) to 1.55 million units in July. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) slipped to 4.6 months, still nearly the highest level in nine years, up from a low of 1.6 months in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdf).

250821L8.jpg

250821M8.jpg

- Home sales remain below recent high in December.
- Sales are slightly higher m/m in most of country.
- Median sales price slips from record high.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise Slightly in July; Home Prices Decline

Sandy Batten

250821N4.jpg

250821O4.jpg

The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, fell more than 16 points to -0.3 in August from 15.9 in July. The index has posted negative readings, which indicate that activity is declining, in four of the previous five months. A reading of +5.0 for August had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nearly 30% of respondents reported an increase in activity in August, down from 31.7% in July, while 30% reported a decline, up markedly from 16% in July. Responses to this month's survey were collected from August 11 to August 18.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question on activity. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology employed in constructing the national ISM index. That calculated index fell to 49.1 in August, the first reading below the critical 50 level that separates expansion from contraction since April, from 51.2 in July.

Looking at the component indexes, both new orders and shipments posted significant declines in August with orders plummeting into negative territory at -1.9 versus 18.4 in July. This was the first negative reading for new orders since the tariff-induced plunge in April. Thirty-four percent of respondents reported an increase in orders in August, little changed from 35% in July. In contrast, 36% reported a decline in orders in August, up markedly from 17% in July. Shipments also declined significantly in August although they remained in positive territory at 4.5 versus 23.7 in July. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported an increase in shipments, down slightly from 32% in July. In contrast, 24% reported a decline, up markedly from 9% in July.

Firms continued to report overall increases in employment, but at a slower pace. The employment index fell 4 points to 5.9 in August from 10.3 in July. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (74%), while the share of firms reporting increases (16%) exceeded the share reporting decreases (10%, up from 7% in July). The average workweek index rose from 0.4 in July to 4.7 in August, its highest reading since March.

There was still no indication that increased tariffs have damaged supply chains. The delivery times index slipped further below zero to -5.4 in August, the fourth negative reading in five months indicating that delivery times are shortening, from -4.7 in July. Thirteen percent of respondents reported an increase in delivery times in August, up from 8% in July, while 18% reported a decrease versus 13% in July.

Inflation indicators continued to rise in August. The prices paid index jumped to 66.8 in August, its highest reading since May 2022, from an already elevated 58.8 in July. Nearly 67% of respondents reported an increase in input prices while no respondent reported a decline. The prices received index edged up to 36.1 in August, its highest reading in three months, from 34.8 in July. In the answer to a special question, firms expected a 4.1% increase in the prices of their own products over the coming year, up from 3.8% when this question was last asked in the May survey.

The outlook for the next six months brightened marginally in August with the Future Activity Index rising to 25.0 following an increase to 21.5 in July. Forty-one percent of respondents expect activity to increase over the coming six months, the same as in July, while 16% expect it to decline, down from 20% in July. The pace of increase in both new orders and shipments is expected to pick up. Delivery times are expected to increase only slightly. Employment growth is expected to slow. The outlook for capital expenditures rose markedly to 38.4 in August, the highest reading since January.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250821P4.jpg

250821Q4.jpg

- The headline index fell more than 16 points to -0.3, led by outsized declines in both new orders and shipments.
- The ISM-adjusted composite fell below the critical 50 level for the first time in four months, also pointing to a decline in activity.
- Delivery times shortened further while both prices paid and prices received indexes posted gains.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Dipped Below Zero in August

250821A2.jpg

250821B2.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 235,000 during the week ended August 16 after falling to an unrevised 224,000 in the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 226,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 226,250 from 221,750. It was the highest level since the second week of July.

In the week ended August 9, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – rose to 1.972 million from 1.942 million in the prior week, revised from 1.953 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.955 million, the highest level in five weeks.

In the week ending August 9, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was 1.3% for the eleventh straight week.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended August 2, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.74%), Puerto Rico (2.62%), Rhode Island (2.52%), California (2.14%), Minnesota (2.20%) and Massachusetts (2.15%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.27%), Florida (0.39%), North Carolina (0.47%), Kansas (0.58%), Georgia (0.59%) and Louisiana (0.61%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.90%), Illinois (1.72%), New York (1.73%), Texas (1.25%) and Michigan (1.17%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250821C2.jpg

250821D2.jpg

- Initial claims surge to highest level in eight weeks.
- Continuing claims extend upward trend.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Sharply in Latest Week

250820A5.jpg

250820B5.jpg

Mortgage applications fell 1.4% (+22.7% y/y) in the week ending August 15 after rising 10.9% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for purchase loans edged 0.1% higher (22.7% y/y) last week, following a 1.4% gain in the prior week. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3.1% (+22.8% y/y) last week, following a 23.0% rise in the week of August 8.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan held steady at 6.86% in the week ending August 15 after falling from 6.94% in the first week of August. It was the lowest rate since the first week of March, down from a high of 7.28% in the second week of January. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.13% in the latest week from 6.09% in the week of August 8. Conversely, the rate on 30-year Jumbo loans decreased to 6.82% last week from 6.86% one week earlier. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose to 6.24% in the week of August 15 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 6.05%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan eased to 46.1% of total applications in the week ending August 15 after rising to 46.5% in the prior week. The share hit a low of 34.6% in the fourth week of May. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to 8.60% in the latest week after rising to 9.60% in the week of August 8.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 2.7% (+4.1% y/y) to $387,800 in the week of August 15, following a 4.5% rise in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan edged 0.5% higher (0.6% y/y) to $429,000 in the latest week after falling 1.2% in the week ending August 8. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 7.3% (+9.5% y/y) to $339,800 last week, after rising 18.3% to $366,400 in the prior week. It was increased from $277,900 in the last week of May.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

**Tracking Labor Market Stress** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/08/tracking-labor-market-stress/).

- Purchase applications edge higher while loan refinancing declines.
- Effective fixed-interest rate on 30-year loans remains at four-month low.
- Average loan size declines.

Economy in Brief: August 2005

Jump to:

Chain Store Sales Ended July Strong

U.S. Factory Inventories Down Again

June Growth in U.S. Personal Income Firm

June Growth in U.S. Personal Income Firm

Rises in Japanese Employment and Wages: Good Omens for Japanese Consumer Incomes and Spending

U.S. Construction Spending Down for Fifth Month This Year

July ISM Factory Index Highest This Year

July ISM Factory Index Highest This Year