Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111a.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week reversed all of the increases over the prior three weeks and fell 26,000 to 299,000, the lowest level since July. Consensus expectations had been for a roughly unchanged figure at 325,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims also fell to 314,750 (3.3% y/y). <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111b.jpg" width="353">
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also fell 3,000 and the prior week&#39;s sharp decline was deepened to 91,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9% for the seventh consecutive week and equaled the average rate since February.
Will Moderating Growth Reduce Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-37.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/06/07</th>
<th scope="col">12/30/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>299</td>
<td>325</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,428</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial unemployment insurance claims last week reversed all of the increases over the prior three weeks and fell 26,000 to 299,000, the lowest level since July. Consensus expectations had been for a roughly unchanged figure at [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Lowest Since July

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111c.jpg" width="353">
The 4Q &#39;06 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI fell for the third straight quarter, to 54 from 64 in 3Q &#39;06. The figure was the lowest since early 2002.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index dropped sharply to 66, the lowest since 2002 but the 4Q export orders index rose and recouped declines in the prior two quarters. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the export orders index and quarterly growth in real US exports.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111d.jpg" width="353">
The profit margins index fell sharply to 62 versus an average 65 last year, its lowest level since 2Q &#39;05.Capital spending intentions for the coming year, however, improved. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the capital spending index a q/q growth in business investment.
The survey of 60 senior financial executives representing a broad range of manufacturing industries reflects the views on current &amp; future business conditions. The business outlook index is a weighted sum of shipments, backlogs, inventories, and profit margin indexes.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click <a href="http://www.mapi.net/html/prelease.cfm?release_id=2517">here</a>.
U.S. Economic Outlook - Remarks by Michael H. Moskow, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago are available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/news_room/speeches/2007_01_10_corridor.cfm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveys/@SE/@SE.HTM">Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Business Index</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>76</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Lowest Since July 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 11, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111a.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week reversed all of the increases over the prior three weeks and fell 26,000 to 299,000, the lowest level since July. Consensus expectations had been for a roughly unchanged figure at 325,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111b.jpg" width="353">
The four-week moving average of initial claims also fell to 314,750 (3.3% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also fell 3,000 and the prior week&#39;s sharp decline was deepened to 91,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9% for the seventh consecutive week and equaled the average rate since February.
Will Moderating Growth Reduce Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-37.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/06/07</th>
<th scope="col">12/30/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>299</td>
<td>325</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,428</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Big Gain in Australia Employment; Unemployment Remains at All-Time Low 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 11, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111e.jpg" width="353">
Employment in Australia grew 45,000 in the month of December, about the same as in November and far above the consensus expectation of 15,000 given in one news service forecast survey. This put the year-to-year growth rate at 3.0%.
The number of Australians unemployed rose 2,200 following a 3,800 increase in November. But these small increases still left the total unemployed right at 500,000, among the lowest since the early months of 1990. The resulting unemployment rate remained at 4.6% for a third consecutive month, the lowest in the almost-29-year history of these labor force data.
This labor market performance is impressive as it accompanied a rise in the participation rate from 64.78% to 64.95%, near the all-time high of 65.02% reached in September. [The Bureau of Statistics publishes the participation rate rounded to one decimal place. We calculated the rate from labor force and population series so we could see more precise changes.]<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070111f.jpg" width="353">
Further, in Q4, separate data reported Wednesday show job vacancies at an all-time high of nearly 164,000, up more than 21% from the year-ago period. as seen in our second graph, much of the strength is in Western Australia -- Perth -- perhaps owing to growing trade in Indian Ocean territories. Queensland also shows gains. The two greatest population centers, New South Wales (Sydney) and Victoria (Melbourne) are seeing a steady number of reported job vacancies.
So the Australian labor market is doing well and, with rising vacancies, perhaps can sustain that track.
These data are contained in Haver&#39;s &quot;ANZ&quot; database and in &quot;G10&quot;.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">AUSTRALIA (Months Seas Adj)</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment (000s)</td>
<td>10337</td>
<td>10293</td>
<td>10250</td>
<td>10035</td>
<td>10190</td>
<td>9987</td>
<td>9677</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Change(000s)/Yr- to-Yr % Change</td>
<td>+45</td>
<td>+43</td>
<td>-32</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%)</td>
<td>64.95</td>
<td>64.78</td>
<td>64.61</td>
<td>64.39</td>
<td>64.70</td>
<td>64.44</td>
<td>63.57</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Job Vacancies (000s)</td>
<td colspan="3">164 (Q4)</td>
<td>135 (Q4)</td>
<td>154</td>
<td>140</td>
<td>124</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The 4Q '06 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell for the third straight quarter, to 54 from 64 in 3Q '06. The figure was the lowest since early 2002. During the last ten years there has been a 69% [...]

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110e.jpg" width="353">
The US Census Bureau publishes a voluminous amount of foreign trade data. So along with the national summary reported on by Tom Moeller, we will highlight for you one specific set of associated data, exports by state.
These shipments are counted from their &quot;origin of movement&quot;, that is where the transportation begins, rather than where the merchandise leaves the country. Census publishes total figures monthly for each state, and it publishes quarterly information on product and destination country, an extraordinarily detail dataset. The total data are contained in Haver&#39;s REGIONAL database, a wide-ranging collection of various economic data for states. The breakdown of state export data by product is a set of databases each covering a Census division of states. In EXPRQ6, for example, you can find the shipping weight of non-electrical machinery sent by ship or air from Tennessee to Aruba.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110f.jpg" width="353">
The state export totals appear in a supplemental table in the Census Bureau&#39;s main FT900 International Trade press release. In our table below, we show the US Total and a selection of states. We picked the three largest exporters, Texas, California and Washington, and also a few others from various regions: Missouri in the midwest, Georgia in the southeast and Massachusetts in New England. All these data are not seasonally adjusted and are reported in current dollars on the so-called &quot;Census&quot; basis.
Total US exports in November were up 15.7% from a year ago. A number of states are showing more rapid expansion than that, particularly Texas, which is the largest exporter in dollar terms. It shipped $13.35 billion of merchandise to customers abroad in November, 20.9% more than November 2005. We can also compare these exports for a full year to gross state product (Haver database GSP); in 2005 they made 13% of Texas state product. California runs second in dollar value of exports, with $10.8 billion in November shipments; this was up 5.5% from the year-ago period. California exports were 7.2% of its GSP in 2005. Interestingly, Washington State is third; we haven&#39;t looked, but we&#39;d guess that aircraft and computer software make a large portion of the goods, which amounted to $5.4 billion in November, up a whopping 47.6% from the year before; exports constitute 14.2% of Washington&#39;s gross product. [New York State&#39;s total exports are marginally larger, but include more reexports, so they would represent less value added.]<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110g.jpg" width="353">
Among the other states shown here, Missouri is seeing notable expansion of its export business. While November&#39;s shipments look small at just $1.3 billion, they are up 51% from a year ago and were more than double the 2003 amount.
We&#39;d also surmise -- without much investigation, to be sure -- that sizable overall export growth is related to the recently weak dollar. It&#39;s also important to note that outsourcing and other aspects of globalization do not work only to the detriment of the US economy. One reason for the publication of these data is a desire by officials in various states to show how their state can be competitive in world markets and thereby create jobs.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US Exports by State (NSA, Mil.$)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total US</td>
<td>91240</td>
<td>92476</td>
<td>88428</td>
<td>75365</td>
<td>68046</td>
<td>60312</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>19.0</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>12.8</td>
<td>4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Texas</td>
<td>13350</td>
<td>13959</td>
<td>12576</td>
<td>10730</td>
<td>9762</td>
<td>8237</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>24.8</td>
<td>21.7</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>18.5</td>
<td>3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">California</td>
<td>10761</td>
<td>11216</td>
<td>10862</td>
<td>9735</td>
<td>9155</td>
<td>7833</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>13.4</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Washington</td>
<td>5410</td>
<td>4651</td>
<td>4546</td>
<td>3162</td>
<td>2814</td>
<td>2848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>47.6</td>
<td>37.7</td>
<td>149.3</td>
<td>12.4</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Missouri</td>
<td>1303</td>
<td>1143</td>
<td>1135</td>
<td>872</td>
<td>748</td>
<td>603</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>50.8</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>34.1</td>
<td>11.9</td>
<td>41.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Massachusetts</td>
<td>2034</td>
<td>2175</td>
<td>2042</td>
<td>1837</td>
<td>1818</td>
<td>1555</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Georgia</td>
<td>1629</td>
<td>1801</td>
<td>1656</td>
<td>1715</td>
<td>1633</td>
<td>1357</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>20.3</td>
<td>13.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The US Census Bureau publishes a voluminous amount of foreign trade data. So along with the national summary reported on by Tom Moeller, we will highlight for you one specific set of associated data, exports by state. These shipments [...]

Export Growth Spread Around the Country: Texas Leads but Other States Participate

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications surged 16.6% last week, the strongest weekly increase since June 2005 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase applications jumped 16.2% and raised the level of applications in early January 11.3% above the December average which rose 4.7% from November.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance also were strong and jumped 17.2%. Applications to refinance in early January were 1.2% above the December average which was unchanged from November.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell w/w to 6.32% but remained up slightly from the December average of 6.28%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. Rates for 15-year financing also fell sharply to 6.10%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110c.jpg" width="353">
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/05/07</th>
<th scope="col">12/29/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>671.1</td>
<td>575.6</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>472.8</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,923.8</td>
<td>1,640.4</td>
<td>28.5%</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The total number of mortgage applications surged 16.6% last week, the strongest weekly increase since June 2005 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications jumped 16.2% and raised the level of applications in [...]

Mortgage Applications Surged

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $58.2B from a little revised $58.8B during October. The deficit was the shallowest since July of last year and compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of $60.0B.
The value of petroleum product imports fell 9.3% (-11.2% y/y) as the per barrel cost of crude oil petroleum imports fell 5.8% m/m to $52.25 and the quantity of crude oil imports fell 0.8% (-4.7% y/y).
Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 0.3% (7.8% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital goods imports rose 0.9% (10.7% y/y) and imports of nonauto consumer goods surged 2.3% (15.0% y/y), the strongest monthly gain since June. Imports of advanced technology products rose 0.4% (14.2% y/y).
Total exports rose a strong 0.9% goosed by a 1.9% (13.0% y/y) rise in capital goods exports. Exports of complete civilian aircraft jumped 15.7% (36.9% y/y) and aircraft parts &amp; engines exports also rose a strong 7.9% (19.2% y/y). Computer exports slipped 6.3% (+16.1% y/y) and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose 1.4% (13.5% y/y) after October&#39;s 3.7% jump.
Service exports jumped another 1.4% (9.8% y/y) as travel exports surged 2.6% (11.8% y/y) and passenger fares jumped 2.9% (6.5% y/y). Imports of services also rose a strong 0.9% (9.0% y/y) reflecting a 2.7% (12.5% y/y) rise in travel and a 3.9% jump in passenger fares (6.0% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China narrowed slightly to $22.9B in November ($201.5B in 2005) as imports fell s sharp 5.2% (+23.9% y/y). The balance of goods trade with the newly industrialized Asian also narrowed to a deficit $0.4B (-$15.8B in 2005), the smallest since March of last year, as exports surged 6.5% (33.2% y/y) and imports fell 6.2% (+0.8% y/y).
The trade deficit with Europe deepened slightly m/m to $9.5B as US exports fell 1.1% (+14.6% y/y) and imports slipped 0.6% (+1.4%% y/y).
China&#39;s Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Drop in the Bucket from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20070101/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">Foreign Trade&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$58.2B</td>
<td>$58.8B</td>
<td>$64.0B (11/05)</td>
<td>$716.7B</td>
<td>$611.3B</td>
<td>$494.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>16.7%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $58.2B from a little revised $58.8B during October. The deficit was the shallowest since July of last year and compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of [...]

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Unexpectedly

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $58.2B from a little revised $58.8B during October. The deficit was the shallowest since July of last year and compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of $60.0B.
The value of petroleum product imports fell 9.3% (-11.2% y/y) as the per barrel cost of crude oil petroleum imports fell 5.8% m/m to $52.25 and the quantity of crude oil imports fell 0.8% (-4.7% y/y).
Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 0.3% (7.8% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital goods imports rose 0.9% (10.7% y/y) and imports of nonauto consumer goods surged 2.3% (15.0% y/y), the strongest monthly gain since June. Imports of advanced technology products rose 0.4% (14.2% y/y).
Total exports rose a strong 0.9% goosed by a 1.9% (13.0% y/y) rise in capital goods exports. Exports of complete civilian aircraft jumped 15.7% (36.9% y/y) and aircraft parts &amp; engines exports also rose a strong 7.9% (19.2% y/y). Computer exports slipped 6.3% (+16.1% y/y) and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose 1.4% (13.5% y/y) after October&#39;s 3.7% jump.
Service exports jumped another 1.4% (9.8% y/y) as travel exports surged 2.6% (11.8% y/y) and passenger fares jumped 2.9% (6.5% y/y). Imports of services also rose a strong 0.9% (9.0% y/y) reflecting a 2.7% (12.5% y/y) rise in travel and a 3.9% jump in passenger fares (6.0% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China narrowed slightly to $22.9B in November ($201.5B in 2005) as imports fell s sharp 5.2% (+23.9% y/y). The balance of goods trade with the newly industrialized Asian also narrowed to a deficit $0.4B (-$15.8B in 2005), the smallest since March of last year, as exports surged 6.5% (33.2% y/y) and imports fell 6.2% (+0.8% y/y).
The trade deficit with Europe deepened slightly m/m to $9.5B as US exports fell 1.1% (+14.6% y/y) and imports slipped 0.6% (+1.4%% y/y).
China&#39;s Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Drop in the Bucket from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20070101/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">Foreign Trade&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$58.2B</td>
<td>$58.8B</td>
<td>$64.0B (11/05)</td>
<td>$716.7B</td>
<td>$611.3B</td>
<td>$494.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>16.7%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 10, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications surged 16.6% last week, the strongest weekly increase since June 2005 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase applications jumped 16.2% and raised the level of applications in early January 11.3% above the December average which rose 4.7% from November.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance also were strong and jumped 17.2%. Applications to refinance in early January were 1.2% above the December average which was unchanged from November.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110c.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell w/w to 6.32% but remained up slightly from the December average of 6.28%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. Rates for 15-year financing also fell sharply to 6.10%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/05/07</th>
<th scope="col">12/29/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>671.1</td>
<td>575.6</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>472.8</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,923.8</td>
<td>1,640.4</td>
<td>28.5%</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Export Growth Spread Around the Country: Texas Leads but Other States Participate 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 10, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110e.jpg" width="353">
The US Census Bureau publishes a voluminous amount of foreign trade data. So along with the national summary reported on by Tom Moeller, we will highlight for you one specific set of associated data, exports by state.
These shipments are counted from their &quot;origin of movement&quot;, that is where the transportation begins, rather than where the merchandise leaves the country. Census publishes total figures monthly for each state, and it publishes quarterly information on product and destination country, an extraordinarily detail dataset. The total data are contained in Haver&#39;s REGIONAL database, a wide-ranging collection of various economic data for states. The breakdown of state export data by product is a set of databases each covering a Census division of states. In EXPRQ6, for example, you can find the shipping weight of non-electrical machinery sent by ship or air from Tennessee to Aruba.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110f.jpg" width="353">
The state export totals appear in a supplemental table in the Census Bureau&#39;s main FT900 International Trade press release. In our table below, we show the US Total and a selection of states. We picked the three largest exporters, Texas, California and Washington, and also a few others from various regions: Missouri in the midwest, Georgia in the southeast and Massachusetts in New England. All these data are not seasonally adjusted and are reported in current dollars on the so-called &quot;Census&quot; basis.
Total US exports in November were up 15.7% from a year ago. A number of states are showing more rapid expansion than that, particularly Texas, which is the largest exporter in dollar terms. It shipped $13.35 billion of merchandise to customers abroad in November, 20.9% more than November 2005. We can also compare these exports for a full year to gross state product (Haver database GSP); in 2005 they made 13% of Texas state product. California runs second in dollar value of exports, with $10.8 billion in November shipments; this was up 5.5% from the year-ago period. California exports were 7.2% of its GSP in 2005. Interestingly, Washington State is third; we haven&#39;t looked, but we&#39;d guess that aircraft and computer software make a large portion of the goods, which amounted to $5.4 billion in November, up a whopping 47.6% from the year before; exports constitute 14.2% of Washington&#39;s gross product. [New York State&#39;s total exports are marginally larger, but include more reexports, so they would represent less value added.]<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070110g.jpg" width="353">
Among the other states shown here, Missouri is seeing notable expansion of its export business. While November&#39;s shipments look small at just $1.3 billion, they are up 51% from a year ago and were more than double the 2003 amount.
We&#39;d also surmise -- without much investigation, to be sure -- that sizable overall export growth is related to the recently weak dollar. It&#39;s also important to note that outsourcing and other aspects of globalization do not work only to the detriment of the US economy. One reason for the publication of these data is a desire by officials in various states to show how their state can be competitive in world markets and thereby create jobs.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US Exports by State (NSA, Mil.$)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total US</td>
<td>91240</td>
<td>92476</td>
<td>88428</td>
<td>75365</td>
<td>68046</td>
<td>60312</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>19.0</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>12.8</td>
<td>4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Texas</td>
<td>13350</td>
<td>13959</td>
<td>12576</td>
<td>10730</td>
<td>9762</td>
<td>8237</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>20.9</td>
<td>24.8</td>
<td>21.7</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>18.5</td>
<td>3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">California</td>
<td>10761</td>
<td>11216</td>
<td>10862</td>
<td>9735</td>
<td>9155</td>
<td>7833</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>13.4</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Washington</td>
<td>5410</td>
<td>4651</td>
<td>4546</td>
<td>3162</td>
<td>2814</td>
<td>2848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>47.6</td>
<td>37.7</td>
<td>149.3</td>
<td>12.4</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Missouri</td>
<td>1303</td>
<td>1143</td>
<td>1135</td>
<td>872</td>
<td>748</td>
<td>603</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>50.8</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>34.1</td>
<td>11.9</td>
<td>41.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Massachusetts</td>
<td>2034</td>
<td>2175</td>
<td>2042</td>
<td>1837</td>
<td>1818</td>
<td>1555</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Georgia</td>
<td>1629</td>
<td>1801</td>
<td>1656</td>
<td>1715</td>
<td>1633</td>
<td>1357</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>20.3</td>
<td>13.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109f.jpg" width="353">
Recent data from Germany are generally positive. Exports, while still strong, declined slightly in November from 80.9 billion euros in October to 80.5 billion euros--the result perhaps of the strong euro. However, imports declined by an even greater amount from 63.6 billion euros in October to 61.2 billion euros in November with the result that the trade balance increased to !9.3 billion euros from 17.3 billion euros in October. The first chart shows German exports and imports of goods.
Industrial production in November increased 1.8% from October and was 6.1% above November, 2005. Construction, which, earlier this year, appeared to have bottomed out, was particularly strong--up 6.2% in November and 13.4% above November, 2005--due in part to the unseasonally warm weather. Production in manufacturing, however, also increased 1.5% from October and 6.2$ from November, 2005. The second chart shows German industrial production in construction and manufacturing.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109g.jpg" width="353">
In spite of the deceleration in exports in November, the value of foreign manufacturing new orders increased 2.1% in November and were 6.4% above November, 2005. Domestic new orders increased only 0.6% in November from October, but were 9.9% above November, 2005. In the third chart, showing domestic and foreign new manufacturing orders, it can be seen that domestic new orders began to strengthen back in mid 2005 and to accelerate in the second quarter of 2006.
Retail sales have been the soft spot in the German economy. In view of the increased employment, noted earlier by Carol Stone, and the increase in the Value Added Tax on January 1, 2007, expectations had been for strong retail sales in the final months of 2006. Retail sales excluding autos and related stores, however, declined 1.5% in September, 0.1% in October and 0.1% again in November. Sales including autos and related stores did not fare much better. They were, respectively, -0.8%, 0.0% and 0.7%. The fourth chart shows retail sales excluding and including autos and related stores. The widening gap between the two series in recent months suggests that the impending increase in the VAT may have had at least stimulated purchases of autos.(We have rebased the retail sales from 2003=100 to 2000=100 to facilitate comparisons with the Industrial Production and New Orders data.)<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109h.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109i.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMANY&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 06</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 06</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports&nbsp; (Bil Euro)</td>
<td>80.46</td>
<td>80.87</td>
<td>67.33</td>
<td>-0.51</td>
<td>19.50</td>
<td>783.62</td>
<td>727.41</td>
<td>666.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports&nbsp; (Bil Euro)</td>
<td>61.17</td>
<td>63.58</td>
<td>52.82</td>
<td>-3.79</td>
<td>13.66</td>
<td>625.87</td>
<td>572.60</td>
<td>535.83</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Goods &nbsp;(Bil Euro)</td>
<td>19.29</td>
<td>17.29</td>
<td>13.51</td>
<td>2.00*</td>
<td>5.78*</td>
<td>157.75</td>
<td>154.81</td>
<td>130.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Industrial Production (2000=100) </td>
<td>112.0</td>
<td>110.0</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>6.06</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>100.8</td>
<td>98.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>115.4</td>
<td>113.7</td>
<td>108.7</td>
<td>1.50</td>
<td>6.16</td>
<td>106.4</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>99.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>87.9</td>
<td>82.3</td>
<td>72.1</td>
<td>6.20</td>
<td>13.36</td>
<td>76.7</td>
<td>80.6</td>
<td>84.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Mfg New Orders Value (2000=100)</td>
<td>128.0</td>
<td>126.3</td>
<td>118.3</td>
<td>1.35</td>
<td>8.20</td>
<td>111.7</td>
<td>105.0</td>
<td>99.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>115.0</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>0.61</td>
<td>9.94</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>98.3</td>
<td>94.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign</td>
<td>144.2</td>
<td>141.3</td>
<td>135.5</td>
<td>2.05</td>
<td>6.42</td>
<td>124.6</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>104.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales excl autos, etc (2000=100)</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>103.8</td>
<td>103.8</td>
<td>-0.10</td>
<td>-0.10</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales incl autos, etc (2000=100)</td>
<td>107.2</td>
<td>106.5</td>
<td>105.3</td>
<td>0.66</td>
<td>1.80</td>
<td>104.4</td>
<td>101.9</td>
<td>100.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Recent data from Germany are generally positive. Exports, while still strong, declined slightly in November from 80.9 billion euros in October to 80.5 billion euros--the result perhaps of the strong euro. However, imports declined by [...]

Mostly Positive News from Germany

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109c.jpg" width="353">
 Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump fell three cents last week to an average $2.31 per gallon after a penny decline during the prior week. Nevertheless, the average price for gasoline in January is up to $2.32 from the December average of $2.31 and the November average of $2.23 per gallon.
Further relief from higher retail gasoline prices may be signaled by declines in the spot market (NY harbor) price for a gallon of regular gasoline which have totaled twenty cents over the last two days.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070109d.jpg" width="353">
Warmer weather also has helped crude oil prices lower. Yesterday, the spot price for WTI crude settled at $57.83 (-8.9% y/y), down four dollars from the December average of $61.94.
Warm temperatures also have pushed natural gas prices lower to $5.53 per mmbtu but a recent forecast of colder temps raised futures to $8.57
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
Recycling Petrodollars from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci12-9.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Weekly Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/08/07</th>
<th scope="col">01/01/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline Price, Regular</td>
<td>$2.31</td>
<td>$2.33</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$2.57</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump fell three cents last week to an average $2.31 per gallon after a penny decline during the prior week. Nevertheless, the average price for gasoline in January is up to $2.32 from the December [...]

Gasoline Prices Down Again

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Sandy Batten

260210J2.jpg

260210K2.jpg

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a report on export and import prices for October because of the government shutdown, and BLS was unable to construct statistics for October. Therefore, the charts here have a gap for October between the September and the November and December values.

Import prices rose 0.1% m/m (unchanged y/y) in December from November, in line with the expectations of the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Since there was no value for October value, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. Import prices fell 0.1% y/y in November. Export prices rose 0.3% m/m in December. Again, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly increase in December. The y/y reading fell to 3.1% in December from 3.2% in November.

Note that these indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the price of goods before taxes. Tariffs are considered taxes and thus are excluded from these calculations.

For imports, a 3.3% monthly decline in prices of imported petroleum and petroleum products restrained the rise in overall prices. Prices of nonpetroleum imports rose 0.4% m/m (1.0% y/y). Prices of imported food increased 0.5% m/m while prices of imported industrial supplies rose 0.4% m/m even with a 0.8% monthly decline in prices of fuels and lubricants. Prices of the remaining end-use categories were little changed in December. Given the recent weakness of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, there could be further upward pressure on nonpetroleum import prices in coming months.

For exports, prices of agricultural products 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) in December following a 0.9% m/m jump in November. Prices of nonagricultural exports increased 0.3% m/m in December. A monthly change could not be calculated for November. The y/y rate slowed to 3.1% in December from 3.3%. Exported food prices rose 0.4% m/m, down from a 1.1% monthly jump in November. Prices of exported industrial supplies also increased 0.4% m/m in December. Prices of exported consumer goods excluding autos jumped 0.8% m/m in December, their largest monthly increase since January 2023.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260210L2.jpg

260210M2.jpg

- Import prices rose 0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations.
- The December increase reflected a 0.2% monthly gain in non-fuel import prices and a 0.8% m/m decline in fuel prices.
- Export prices rose 0.3% m/m against expectations of a 0.1% m/m increase. Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices rose in December.


U.S. Import and Export Prices Rise in December

Tian Yong Woon

In our Letter this week, we explore Asia in two parts. The first reviews key developments from the past week, focusing on snap election outcomes in Japan (chart 1) and Thailand (chart 2), both of which delivered victories for incumbent parties and helped reduce near-term political uncertainty.

The second, and larger, section builds on last week’s discussion of Asia and AI, shifting the focus to AI’s potential impact on the region from an end-user perspective. On the upside, Asia stands to benefit meaningfully from the eventual large-scale adoption of AI-powered robotics, reflecting the region’s relatively high share of manufacturing value added (chart 3). That said, important considerations remain, including the cost viability of transitioning towards humanoid robotics given the sizeable upfront capital expenditure involved. Beyond manufacturing, AI adoption could also deliver gains in healthcare, particularly as many Asian economies grapple with ageing populations—implying a growing care burden alongside a shrinking domestic caregiver base (chart 4). However, regulatory, ethical, and implementation challenges persist. 

At the same time, the AI transition will likely displace certain jobs, making this a race not only of adoption but of adaptability, where education—while an imperfect proxy—offers some insight into which economies may be better positioned to adjust (chart 5). Finally, bureaucratic frictions also matter (chart 6), although even traditionally more bureaucratic economies have begun introducing fast-track frameworks to avoid falling behind in what could prove to be a pivotal transition reshaping the regional, and potentially global, economic landscape.

**Japan’s snap election**
Following a snap election held on Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic landslide victory, winning a more than two-thirds majority in Japan’s 456-seat Lower House. The LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, also expanded its presence to 36 seats. The outcome suggests that Takaichi’s political gamble to capitalise on strong opinion polling has paid off. While the election result has removed a key source of near-term political uncertainty for Japan, attention now turns to the policy agenda enabled by the government’s newly strengthened mandate. Among the first expected moves, Takaichi appears set to proceed with a temporary food tax pause, reducing the 8% consumption tax on food to 0% for two years. This proposal reinforces the perception that her policy stance is fiscally accommodative, even as critics raise concerns around fiscal discipline and long-term sustainability. As for the market reaction, Japanese equities rallied on stimulus expectations, bond yields rose on prospects of increased issuance to fund higher spending, while the yen recorded only muted net moves (chart 1)—prompting some speculation that some intervention may have taken place.

260210T1.jpg

**Thailand’s snap election**
Thailand also held snap elections last Sunday, which saw the incumbent deliver a strong showing at the polls. Unlike Japan’s election outcome, however, the scale of the increase in the incumbent Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party’s parliamentary footprint came as a surprise to many observers. That said, despite these sizable gains, the BJT Party fell short of an outright majority, securing 193 of the 500 seats in parliament, implying that a coalition government will likely still be required to pass legislation smoothly. Thai equities and the baht nevertheless rallied on the election results (chart 2). Attention now turns to whether—and how—Prime Minister Anutin will follow through on key campaign promises, including the revival of a popular shopping subsidy programme. While such measures would provide a near-term boost to consumption, they would also raise concerns around fiscal sustainability. Beyond the parliamentary vote, Thai voters also approved a proposal to replace the constitution. If pursued, this could pave the way for deeper structural reforms to Thailand’s economy.

260210T2.jpg

**AI’s (potential) impact on Asia**
We now turn to the longer, second part of this week’s letter, where we examine AI’s potential impact on Asia. In contrast to last week’s discussion, the focus here is on Asia’s role as an end-user of AI, rather than its position within the global AI supply chain. While AI broadly promises substantial productivity gains if deeply embedded across economies, one sector where Asia may benefit disproportionately is manufacturing. This reflects the relatively high share of manufacturing value added in GDP across many Asian economies compared with the global average (chart 3). In particular, Asia stands to reap significant productivity gains through the widespread adoption of AI-powered robotics. Cost, however, remains a key consideration: relative to the overall cost of human labour, AI-enabled robots have yet to become unequivocally competitive once high upfront capital outlays are taken into account. That said, recent advances in humanoid, AI-enabled robots have demonstrated increasingly broad and sophisticated capabilities in replicating human tasks, including delicate and precision operations. Over time, this could meaningfully alleviate a persistent structural challenge facing many advanced Asian economies—ageing populations and the associated labour constraints.

260210T3.jpg

Digging deeper into the ageing population challenge faced by many Asian economies, another area where AI and robotics could play a meaningful role is healthcare. Ageing societies face a twin burden: a rising number of elderly individuals requiring care alongside a shrinking pool of working-age caregivers, absent offsetting labour inflows. One proxy for this imbalance is the old-age dependency, which, as shown in chart 4, is already relatively high in several Asian economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea. That said, adoption remains at a very early stage. Significant barriers to widespread deployment persist, including regulatory and ethical considerations, high implementation costs, and questions around the consistency, reliability, and safety of AI-enabled systems in delivering healthcare-related tasks.

260210T4.jpg

**Asia’s challenges in AI adoption**
That said, the outlook is not entirely positive for Asia in the context of widespread AI adoption. As with previous waves of transformative technology, AI will inevitably render some jobs—at least in their current form—obsolete, even as it creates new roles and reshapes others. This implies that many Asian economies will need to navigate a significant structural adjustment in their labour markets, as certain types of work are displaced while demand for new skill sets emerges. How effectively Asia manages this transition will be critical in determining whether its economies move ahead of—or fall behind—the global shift towards AI. At present, and using education quality as a rough proxy, some Asian economies appear better positioned to manage this adjustment than others. As illustrated in chart 5, economies such as China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea seem relatively well placed to absorb and adapt to the coming changes. That said, education quality is only an imperfect indicator. Other factors will also matter, including the capacity to rapidly retool and reskill the workforce, as well as the inclusiveness of the transition. Ensuring that lower-skilled and more vulnerable segments of society are not left behind will be an important determinant of the long-term economic and social outcomes of AI adoption across the region.

260210T5.jpg

Another potential hurdle relates to bureaucratic costs, which—when elevated—can act as a meaningful source of friction in the adoption of new AI-driven technologies. On this front, some Asian economies stand out for having comparatively low bureaucratic burdens, notably Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, while others, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, tend to lag (chart 6). That said, as with many broad-based indicators, this picture masks important nuances. Several of these economies have introduced industry-specific—particularly AI-focused—fast-tracking initiatives aimed at accelerating development within targeted domestic sectors. Even so, in an increasingly competitive and intensifying global race to adopt AI and capture its economic upside, we may see a growing tendency toward an “adopt first, regulate later” approach in the years ahead. This is likely to persist unless and until major incidents or heightened concerns emerge that materially slow the pace of AI adoption.

260210T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Of Ballots and Bots

Robert Brusca

260209E.jpg

Japan's economy watchers index has flattened out and backed off slightly for the current and future outlooks depending on the time horizon that you seek. However, what's clear is that the index reached the low point around the middle of last year, has been rebounding and now the rebound has either run out of gas or slowed after the index has rebuilt itself considerably.  

It is certainly too early to get pessimistic on Japan's economy, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi having just won a significant - essentially a landslide - snap election that she called after recently having been elected. The LDP would appear to be back in the driver's seat, and she has her sights set on more fiscal stimulus and expanded military spending. She is apparently much more on the same wavelength as Donald Trump in the United States. Mr. Trump was an Abe supporter, and Ms. Takaichi is a disciple of Mr. Abe.

At the moment, Japan would seem to have a groundswell of support behind the government and that government is set to try to rekindle some growth which could potentially put the Bank of Japan in a more decisively defensive track as far as setting rates and potentially raising rates.

**Economy watchers index is trending**
In January, the economy watchers index backed off for the second month in a row. However, it still has a percentile standing in its 51-percentile, slightly above its median standing since early-2005. The headline and all the components have standings above their respective 50th percentiles on this timeline, with the exception of housing, services, and employment; three readings that are extremely important to consumers. Housing has a 26.1 percentile standing, services (the employment sector) have a 45.8 percentile standing, while employment has a 22.9 percentile standing. Despite the otherwise solid and strong set of readings, there are these three significant flies in the ointment. Corporate Japan is doing extremely well with corporations having a 66.8 percentile standing; manufacturers and nonmanufacturers, separately, each come in with readings in their mid-to-upper 60th percentiles.

**The future index**
The future readings from the economy watchers index show continued but slight increases over the last few months. Only two future readings weaken month-to-month: housing and employment—once again two key readings as far as consumers are concerned. However, in terms of current monthly diffusion readings, the assessment of households, retailing, housing, and employment all have current diffusion values below 50, indicating net declines rather than increases. The percentile standing is for the future index are, like those for the current index, generally upbeat - and generally stronger than for the current indexes - with the future headline posting a 66.4 percentile standing in January. However, like the current index, the standing for housing is at its 21.3 percentile and the standing for employment is at its 30th percentile, both well below the neutral level that would place the ranking at the 50th percentile. Corporations show high readings, higher for the future indexes than for the current index standings. There also are high readings and standings for eating and drinking places as well as services. It's good to see services come up with a strong rating since it creates hope for the future for employment because services are the core employment sector. It will be interesting to see how this value changes in the coming months as Takaichi’s new policies are implemented and take hold.

**Summing up**
On balance, the economy watchers index has been firm to strong. There is some slight give-back in the current index in terms of trend. But beyond the index, there's more immediate reason to be more positive because Japan has just executed a very decisive and pro-growth snap election that is going to put the new Prime Minister Takaichi and strong control of the economy at a time where she seeks to cement economic strength. These elections were just completed over the weekend, and we will see the results reflected in data in the weeks and months to come.

260209.jpg

Japan

Economy Watchers Indexes Show Firmness; Impact of Takaichi Election to Come in Months Ahead

260206E.jpg

With the December report, Germany’s production and some of the early European industrial production data reveal a good deal of chaos in terms of the embedded trends. On the month, German industrial production fell by 1.9%, with consumer goods output up by 0.5%, capital goods output falling by 5.3%, and intermediate goods output falling by 1.2%. Among the early reporters in the monetary union—France, Spain, and Portugal—only Spain showed an increase in manufacturing IP in December; however, Spanish industrial production is notoriously volatile.

**Broader IP trends in Germany and elsewhere in Europe**
As for other early industrial production reporters, both Sweden and Norway showed strong-to-solid gains in December and each of them showed two-months of gains in a row. Beyond that, sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show accelerating growth in German consumer goods output against decelerating growth for intermediate goods. Real manufacturing output and real sales show mixed results- no clear trends; however, real manufacturing orders in Germany are off the map strong. 

**German manufacturing/industrial Surveys**
German industrial surveys from the IFO for manufacturing shows persistent weakening as well as for IFO manufacturing expectations, and in the EU Commission industrial index in the last three months. More broadly, Germany shows some modest but ongoing step up all of these based on average levels from 12-months to six-months to three-months for IFO expectations and the EU Commission industrial readings with mixed results for other survey readings.

**IP trends in Europe**
For the early reporting EMU members France, Spain, and Portugal, who report industrial production trends, each show mixed monthly trends against ongoing decelerations for manufacturing output over the broader sequential periods (12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month). However, for other Europe, Sweden and Norway, manufacturing trends are steadily accelerating on this broader timeline.

**A feeling of ‘Deja- What?’**
These combinations of opposed trends mixed with a lack of trends leave us with this sense of confusion about what's going on in manufacturing. For Germany, the extreme strength in orders is reassuring since orders should be forward-looking rather than backward-looking or even contemporaneous. But orders can also be a fickle series and so we'll have to watch it to see if the trends for German orders hold up.

**Current quarter-What’s been happening now**
In addition, current quarter growth for Germany actually looks quite good with industrial production up 3.7% at an annual rate in the current quarter, led by output increases in manufacturing against a decline in the intermediate goods output. Real orders in the quarter are surging at a 44% growth rate, while real sales in manufacturing only had a 0.1% uptick at an annual rate. The industrial indicators for Germany in the quarter show weakness or flatness with the only exception being IFO manufacturing expectations that advanced by a small amount. The three EMU members who report industrial production data show positive growth in the just-completed quarter except for Portugal where industrial production is falling at a 2.9% rate in the fourth quarter. Sweden and Norway, European countries but not monetary union members, show a strong 22% annual rate gain in Sweden against the 3% annual rate decline in Norway.

260206.jpg

**Rankings**
**How growth rates stack up…**
Moving away from short-term trends, the rankings of growth rates of these various metrics using 12-month growth rates on data back to 2006, show below-median growth rates for German industrial production and all three of its major sectors. All of them have rankings below the 50% mark where the median resides. Germany’s manufacturing output growth rate is below its median as is the growth of real sales; and once again real manufacturing orders break out and show a stunning 90th percentile standing, extremely strong compared to other growth rates on this period.

**Indicator rankings are poor**
However, the survey based industrial indicators for Germany, ranked based on their index levels, are all extremely weak and much weaker than German sector or other German metrics. The strongest indicator reading is the 29th percentile standing for IFO manufacturing expectations while the current ZEW index, IFO manufacturing index, and the EU Commission industrial readings, all reside below their 15th percentile. The survey rankings suggest that industrial sentiment is in much worse shape than activity and growth.

**IP elsewhere in Europe**
However, the growth ranking of manufacturing industrial production for the reporting EMU members and other European members are all quite solid, with percentile standings ranging from the 66th up to the 93rd percentile.

**Summing up**
From these data, Germany emerges as the weak economy compared with historic norms based on industrial production growth and indicator readings. However, there's a glimpse of positivity from the growth of real orders, and at the same time, some concern about ongoing sentiment for manufacturing in Germany as distinct from actual performance.

Germany

German IP Reveals Chaotic Trends

Andrew Cates

**The Global Monetary Policy Consensus**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey points to a notably more balanced global monetary policy outlook over the coming year. In contrast to the pronounced easing bias that dominated much of the past two years, expectations are now more symmetric, with a similar number of central banks projected to raise rates as to ease policy. Japan is seen delivering further tightening, while Canada is expected to initiate an interest rate hike in coming months. In Australia’s case, this tightening guidance was reinforced this week, with the Reserve Bank lifting its policy rate by 25 basis points. Elsewhere, and in contrast, the euro area, UK and US are expected to move in the opposite direction.

260205Z1.jpg

**US manufacturing activity**
The second chart underscores the recent improvement in US economic momentum, highlighted by an unexpected surge in the January ISM manufacturing PMI. After spending much of the past year hovering below the 50 threshold consistent with stagnation, the index jumped sharply back into expansionary territory, signalling a renewed pickup in industrial activity. This rebound has coincided with a broader run of stronger-than-anticipated US economic data, as reflected in the upswing in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. Together, these developments point to a US economy that continues to display notable resilience, complicating expectations of monetary easing in the near term.

260205Z2.jpg

**US Bank Lending Standards and Financial Stress** 
The next chart turns to US financial conditions, highlighting the latest readings from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The net proportion of banks tightening lending standards on corporate loans and mortgages is now more modest by historical standards, and well below the extremes seen during past episodes of financial stress. Some easing in credit headwinds has occurred alongside relatively subdued readings on the OFR Financial Stress Index, which continues to hover below its long-run average. Together, these indicators suggest that the US financial system has continued to avoid the kind of acute stress typically associated with sharp slowdowns in credit availability—helping to underpin the recent resilience in economic activity.

260205Z3.jpg

**Semiconductor Sales**
The fourth chart highlights the renewed surge in global semiconductor sales, with momentum strengthening sharply over recent months across the Americas, China and the broader Asia-Pacific region. After the cyclical downturn in 2022–23, sales have rebounded to fresh highs, reflecting a powerful revival in demand for advanced chips and related technologies. This upswing has taken place amid intense investor preoccupation with artificial intelligence, with expectations that AI adoption will drive a sustained wave of capital spending on data centres, cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing. In contrast, semiconductor sales in Europe remain comparatively subdued, reflecting the region’s smaller footprint in high-end chip manufacturing, weaker industrial demand, and the ongoing impact of slower economic growth. While semiconductors are inherently cyclical, markets have increasingly interpreted the current rebound elsewhere as structural rather than purely cyclical—underpinned by the belief that AI represents a transformative and durable source of demand growth.

260205Z4.jpg

**Large-Scale AI Models**
The next chart illustrates the rapid proliferation of large-scale AI models globally, with newly updated data for 2025 pointing to a further sharp acceleration in development activity. The United States continues to lead by a wide margin, while China has also seen a steep rise in model deployment in recent years, underscoring the intensifying technological competition between the two economies. Growth in the UK and other regions has been more modest by comparison, highlighting the increasingly concentrated nature of AI innovation. Taken together with the surge in semiconductor sales, these trends help explain the market’s strong preoccupation with AI as a potential driver of future productivity and investment cycles—although the geographic concentration of activity also raises questions about the uneven distribution of any resulting economic gains.

260205Z5.jpg

**An AI Bubble?** 
The final chart draws on the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts special questions, highlighting market participants’ perceptions of the economic gains likely to be delivered by artificial intelligence. While a sizeable share of respondents still believe that financial markets may be overestimating AI’s potential benefits, an increasing proportion now judge current expectations to be broadly accurate, with only a small minority viewing the gains as underestimated. Notably, this represents a softening in scepticism compared with the survey results from last month, when concerns about excessive market optimism were more pronounced. The shift suggests a growing acceptance that AI-related investment and innovation could translate into meaningful economic impacts—though uncertainty remains high around the scale, timing and distribution of these gains.

260205Z6.jpg

Financial markets have experienced renewed gyrations in recent weeks, as shifting geopolitical risks, questions around Federal Reserve independence, renewed talk of US dollar “debasement,” and ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have combined to drive volatility across asset classes. These cross-currents have also contributed to a degree of rotation away from high-flying technology stocks, as investors reassess valuations and the timing of anticipated AI-driven gains. Against this backdrop, the charts in this week’s COTW highlight several important themes. Policy rate expectations now appear more balanced globally, marking a clear shift away from the one-sided easing bias of the past two years (chart 1), even as resilient US data—underscored by the unexpected jump in the January ISM index and a run of positive economic surprises—continues to complicate the outlook for monetary easing (chart 2). At the same time, US financial conditions remain relatively benign, with limited evidence of widespread credit stress or aggressive tightening in lending standards (chart 3). Meanwhile, the sharp rebound in semiconductor sales and the accelerating rollout of large-scale AI models underscore why investors remain so focused on the AI narrative, even as Europe lags behind due to weaker industrial momentum and a smaller footprint in advanced chip production (charts 4 and 5). Finally, while some scepticism about AI’s ultimate economic impact persists, the latest survey results suggest a moderation in concerns that markets are materially overestimating its gains (chart 6). Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a US economy that remains more resilient than many had anticipated, set against a financial landscape increasingly shaped by powerful—if sometimes competing—narratives around geopolitics, policy, and technological transformation.

Economy in Brief: 2007

Jump to:

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Lowest Since July

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again

Export Growth Spread Around the Country: Texas Leads but Other States Participate

Mortgage Applications Surged

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Unexpectedly

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Unexpectedly

Mostly Positive News from Germany

Gasoline Prices Down Again