Global| Jan 10 2007U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $58.2B from a little revised $58.8B during October. The deficit was the shallowest since July of last year and compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $58.2B from a little revised $58.8B during October. The deficit was the shallowest since July of last year and compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of $60.0B.
The value of petroleum product imports fell 9.3% (-11.2% y/y) as the per barrel cost of crude oil petroleum imports fell 5.8% m/m to $52.25 and the quantity of crude oil imports fell 0.8% (-4.7% y/y).
Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 0.3% (7.8% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital goods imports rose 0.9% (10.7% y/y) and imports of nonauto consumer goods surged 2.3% (15.0% y/y), the strongest monthly gain since June. Imports of advanced technology products rose 0.4% (14.2% y/y).
Total exports rose a strong 0.9% goosed by a 1.9% (13.0% y/y) rise in capital goods exports. Exports of complete civilian aircraft jumped 15.7% (36.9% y/y) and aircraft parts & engines exports also rose a strong 7.9% (19.2% y/y). Computer exports slipped 6.3% (+16.1% y/y) and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose 1.4% (13.5% y/y) after October's 3.7% jump.
Service exports jumped another 1.4% (9.8% y/y) as travel exports surged 2.6% (11.8% y/y) and passenger fares jumped 2.9% (6.5% y/y). Imports of services also rose a strong 0.9% (9.0% y/y) reflecting a 2.7% (12.5% y/y) rise in travel and a 3.9% jump in passenger fares (6.0% y/y).
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China narrowed slightly to $22.9B in November ($201.5B in 2005) as imports fell s sharp 5.2% (+23.9% y/y). The balance of goods trade with the newly industrialized Asian also narrowed to a deficit $0.4B (-$15.8B in 2005), the smallest since March of last year, as exports surged 6.5% (33.2% y/y) and imports fell 6.2% (+0.8% y/y).
The trade deficit with Europe deepened slightly m/m to $9.5B as US exports fell 1.1% (+14.6% y/y) and imports slipped 0.6% (+1.4%% y/y).
China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Drop in the Bucket from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $58.2B | $58.8B | $64.0B (11/05) |
$716.7B | $611.3B | $494.9B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 0.9% | 0.3% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 4.2% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 0.3% | -2.7% | 5.2% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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