Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005d.jpg" width="353">
The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management fell a sharp 11.7 points to 53.3 in September. It was a record m/m drop and was at least partly due to Hurricane Katrina. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 59.7.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 50% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in real GDP for services plus construction.
The orders index reversed more than all of the gains during the prior two months with a 9.2 point decline. The employment index similarly fell to the lowest level since May. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
Pricing power surged 14.3 points to a record high.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Sept &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>65.0</td>
<td>58.7</td>
<td>62.4</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>55.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>69.0</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>54.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management fell a sharp 11.7 points to 53.3 in September. It was a record m/m drop and was at least partly due to Hurricane Katrina. Consensus [...]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Back Down

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005d.jpg" width="353">
The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management fell a sharp 11.7 points to 53.3 in September. It was a record m/m drop and was at least partly due to Hurricane Katrina. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 59.7.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 50% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in real GDP for services plus construction.
The orders index reversed more than all of the gains during the prior two months with a 9.2 point decline. The employment index similarly fell to the lowest level since May. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
Pricing power surged 14.3 points to a record high.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Sept &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>65.0</td>
<td>58.7</td>
<td>62.4</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>55.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>69.0</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>54.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoffs Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 5, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005c.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements rose a slight 1.8% in September to 71,836 following a 31.5% m/m drop during August. The three month average of job cut announcements fell 13.8% to 81,793 (-2.5% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Moderate increases in job cut announcements were scattered throughout industry but large m/m increases in retail (688.4% y/y), consumer goods (-21.3% y/y) and electronics (72.8% y/y) were offset by declines in insurance (20.4% y/y), telecommunications (-91.3% y/y) and pharmaceuticals (67.5% y/y).
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans fell sharply m/m (-3.1% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>71,836</td>
<td>70,571</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
<td>1,039,175</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Fell With Fewer New Purchases 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 5, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005a.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications fell 1.1% last week following the sharp 6.6% drop the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. In September, applications did rise 0.2% from August but the average level was down 6.7% from a recent peak in June.
Purchase applications fell for the third consecutive week. A 1.9% decline reduced the gain in September to 1.0% versus August. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005b.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications to refinance were roughly unchanged w/w after the 10.5% plunge the prior week. For September, refis fell 0.7% m/m following a 10.6% drop in August.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 6.18% from 6.09% the week prior and the effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 5.83%. The interest rate on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
House Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf"> here</a>.
Yesterday&#39;s speeches from several Federal Reserve Board officials contained comments on the economic outlook, the business cycle and Fed Policy. Dallas Fed President Fisher&#39;s comments can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/fs051004.html"> here</a>, St. Louis Fed President Poole&#39;s speech is <a href="http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2005/10_04_05.htm"> here</a> and Philadelphia Fed President Santomero&#39;s comments are available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publicaffairs/speeches/2005_santomero10.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">09/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>713.5</td>
<td>721.2</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>473.8</td>
<td>483.1</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,107.4</td>
<td>2,106.6</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Labor Costs in France Stabilize After Slowdown, an Aid to Workers' Purchasing Power 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> October 5, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005f.jpg" width="353">
Labor costs in France have maintained a steady trend over the last several months, rising at about a 2-1/2% pace, year-on-year.These hourly data are reported for selected sectors of French industry, with mechanical/electrical manufacturers running just above 2.5% and business services just below that rate. Labor costs in the textile industry have seen a pickup this year to 3.2% in June from 2.3% in December 2004, while clothing and leather have risen slightly faster this year at 2.15% compared with 1.77%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051005e.jpg" width="353">
For workers, the flatter trends in machinery and services since last autumn would be a welcome development after several years of progressively slower gains. In addition, as noted in the table below, consumer prices through June had also slowed noticeably. In this comparison, we chose the CPI for urban workers, which may reflect more closely than the overall CPI the group covered by the labor cost data. The combination of the labor cost and CPI figures shows that through the first half of this year, the real purchasing power of hourly compensation picked up to about 1% for both mechanical equipment and service workers from only about 0.5% across last year. This is evident in the second graph.
Since June the CPI has begun rising more rapidly, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in August. So the improvement in workers&#39; purchasing power may have ended. But at least any slowing would be from a faster rate than had prevailed last year, and in the service sector, 2003 as well.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/FRANCE/FRANCE.HTM">France: Hourly Labor Costs</a> (NSA, yr/yr % chg)</th>
<th scope="col">June 2005</th>
<th scope="col">May 2005</th>
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mechanical/Electrical Industries</td>
<td>2.53</td>
<td>2.53</td>
<td>2.41</td>
<td>3.49</td>
<td>4.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Services Industries</td>
<td>2.47</td>
<td>2.56</td>
<td>2.52</td>
<td>2.84</td>
<td>4.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CPI: Urban Workers</td>
<td>1.53</td>
<td>1.53</td>
<td>2.01</td>
<td>2.43</td>
<td>2.39</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004f.jpg" width="353">
Diverse inflation rates, defined as the year-over-year percentage increases in the consumer price indexes, were reported for six countries--Indonesia, Korea, Peru, Switzerland, Turkey and Venezuela--yesterday and today.
The two oil producing countries, Indonesia and Venezuela, reported inflation rates of 16.0% and 9.1%, respectively. The trends in their inflation rates are shown in the first chart. From a peak of near 40% in mid 2002, inflation in Venezuela appears to have stabilized at about 15%. Indonesia, which is the only member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that is a net oil importer, has held inflation in check, until recently, by subsidizing domestic fuel costs.On October 1, however, the government reduced, dramatically, these subsidies by almost tripling the price of kerosene and more than doubling the price of diesel. The central bank has just raised its benchmark interest rate a full point to 11%, the highest rate in more than two years to contain the expected rise in inflation.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004g.jpg" width="353">
Peru which suffered bouts of hyper inflation prior to the early nineties experienced a marked decline in its inflation through early 2002, when it subsequently began to rise moderately. From a peak of 4.75% in July, 2004, it has since declined to 1.11% in September. As one of the currently low inflation countries its inflation rate is shown with that of Switzerland, another low inflation country, albeit of longer standing. In September Peru&#39;s inflation rate at 1.11% was actually below that of Switzerland&#39;s 1.36%.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004h.jpg" width="353">
Turkey is another country that has experienced bouts of hyper inflation in the past and has since taken measures that have brought about a reduction in the rate of inflation from 73% in January, 2002 to 8% in September. In the third chart inflation in Turkey is shown with that of Korea. Different scales have been used in this chart as inflation in Korea has ranged only between roughly 2% and 5.2% while that of Turkey has ranged from 7% to 73%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Consumer Price Indexes</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 05</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 &nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">2002 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Indonesia (2002=1000</td>
<td>124.33</td>
<td>123.48</td>
<td>114.00</td>
<td>0.89</td>
<td>9.06</td>
<td>6.06</td>
<td>6.77</td>
<td>11.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Korea (2000=100)</td>
<td>119.0</td>
<td>118.2</td>
<td>115.9</td>
<td>0.68</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.51</td>
<td>2.76</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Peru (12/2001=100)</td>
<td>108.58</td>
<td>108.68</td>
<td>107.39</td>
<td>-0.09</td>
<td>1.11</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.26</td>
<td>0.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Switzerland (5/2000=100)</td>
<td>104.7</td>
<td>104.3</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>0.38</td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>0.82</td>
<td>0.63</td>
<td>0.64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Turkey (2003=100)</td>
<td>118.33</td>
<td>117.13</td>
<td>109.57</td>
<td>1.02</td>
<td>7.99</td>
<td>8.60</td>
<td>21.60</td>
<td>44.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Venezuela (1997=100)</td>
<td>513.85</td>
<td>505.35</td>
<td>442.26</td>
<td>1.48</td>
<td>15.96</td>
<td>21.75</td>
<td>31.04</td>
<td>22.43</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Diverse inflation rates, defined as the year-over-year percentage increases in the consumer price indexes, were reported for six countries--Indonesia, Korea, Peru, Switzerland, Turkey and Venezuela--yesterday and today. The two oil [...]

Varied Reports of Inflation

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004e.jpg" width="353">
Factory inventories slipped 0.1% in August following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July. To emphasize a notion that the turn toward inventory restocking has not yet begun, factory inventories less petroleum gave back most of the prior month&#39;s gain, fell 0.2% and have been virtually unchanged since March.
Electrical equipment inventories fell 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) for the fourth straight monthly decline. Computer inventories also slipped 0.2% (-0.5% y/y), primary metal inventories fell 0.5% (+17.6% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly drop and fabricated metals fell for the fourth consecutive month, off 0.4% (+7.1% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (9.7% y/y) led by turbines and construction machinery.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004d.jpg" width="353">
Factory shipments surged 1.7% following a downwardly revised July gain. Less a 4.7% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, factory shipments surged 1.4% (3.6% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments jumped 2.1% (6.0% y/y) and machinery rose 1.4% (8.4% y/y).
Factory sector orders reversed all of a a deepened 2.5% decline in July. The advance report of a surge in durables orders was little revised and they rose 3.3%.
Unfilled orders added 1.6% to the 1.0% jump in July. Nondefense aircraft &amp; parts (32.5% y/y) again led the strength with a 3.9% surge. Less the transportation sector altogether, backlogs rose 1.8% (9.0% y/y) and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments continued a moderate climb.<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/07/Gali.pdf"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Factory inventories slipped 0.1% in August following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July. To emphasize a notion that the turn toward inventory restocking has not yet begun, factory inventories less petroleum gave back most of the [...]

U.S. Factory Inventories Slip

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004c.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose another 0.6% last week following a 0.1% up tick the week prior. For the full month, however, sales look to have fallen 1.7% from the August average which fell 0.1% from July. 
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 1.0% higher (-1.9% y/y) following declines during four of the prior five weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/31/05</th>
<th scope="col">09/24/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>448.0</td>
<td>445.5</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose another 0.6% last week following a 0.1% up tick the week prior. For the full month, however, sales look to have fallen 1.7% from the [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover A Bit More

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004a.jpg" width="353">
US sales of light vehicles slid 2.6% m/m to 16.36M last month, according to the Autodata Corporation. The end of manufacturers&#39; employee price discount programs lowered sales generally but higher gasoline prices hit light truck sales especially hard.
Sales of US made cars and trucks fell 2.8% (-8.3% y/y) following the 21.8% m/m drop in August. Truck sales added a 6.2% (-16.9% y/y) decline to the 30.9% August slide. Domestic car sales benefited from consumers&#39; switch to fuel efficiency and rose 2.1% (6.0% y/y).
Sales of imported cars &amp; trucks slipped 1.6% m/m (+2.2% y/y). Imported car sales rose 2.6% (10.8% y/y) but truck sales fell another 9.8% (-12.7% y/y) on top of the 10.0% August decline.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004b.jpg" width="353">
Import&#39;s share of the US light vehicle market rose slightly m/m to 20.7% versus 19.9% during all of last year.
Gasoline prices spiked 16.8% last month. In addition to the evidence from lower truck sales, consumers&#39; response to the jump is reinforced by a 9.2% (-6.2% y/y) decline in gasoline consumption. Gas consumption typically falls sharply in September with the end of the summer driving season, but the 2005 decline was a record as was the y/y drop.
Last week US retail gasoline prices rose 12.5 cents w/w to $2.93 per gallon (+51.1% y/y) versus an average $2.90 during September.
Gasoline Prices Soar; Heating Oil Set for Winter Hike from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/eyi/usecon/0508gas.html"> here</a>.
Gasoline Affordability, a 2004 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20041101/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.36</td>
<td>16.79</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>16.87</td>
<td>16.63</td>
<td>16.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.95</td>
<td>7.78</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
<td>8.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>8.41</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>-16.4%</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US sales of light vehicles slid 2.6% m/m to 16.36M last month, according to the Autodata Corporation. The end of manufacturers' employee price discount programs lowered sales generally but higher gasoline prices hit light truck sales [...]

U.S. Vehicle Sales Slide As Truck Sales Collapse

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004a.jpg" width="353">
US sales of light vehicles slid 2.6% m/m to 16.36M last month, according to the Autodata Corporation. The end of manufacturers&#39; employee price discount programs lowered sales generally but higher gasoline prices hit light truck sales especially hard.
Sales of US made cars and trucks fell 2.8% (-8.3% y/y) following the 21.8% m/m drop in August. Truck sales added a 6.2% (-16.9% y/y) decline to the 30.9% August slide. Domestic car sales benefited from consumers&#39; switch to fuel efficiency and rose 2.1% (6.0% y/y).
Sales of imported cars &amp; trucks slipped 1.6% m/m (+2.2% y/y). Imported car sales rose 2.6% (10.8% y/y) but truck sales fell another 9.8% (-12.7% y/y) on top of the 10.0% August decline.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004b.jpg" width="353">
Import&#39;s share of the US light vehicle market rose slightly m/m to 20.7% versus 19.9% during all of last year.
Gasoline prices spiked 16.8% last month. In addition to the evidence from lower truck sales, consumers&#39; response to the jump is reinforced by a 9.2% (-6.2% y/y) decline in gasoline consumption. Gas consumption typically falls sharply in September with the end of the summer driving season, but the 2005 decline was a record as was the y/y drop.
Last week US retail gasoline prices rose 12.5 cents w/w to $2.93 per gallon (+51.1% y/y) versus an average $2.90 during September.
Gasoline Prices Soar; Heating Oil Set for Winter Hike from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/eyi/usecon/0508gas.html"> here</a>.
Gasoline Affordability, a 2004 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20041101/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.36</td>
<td>16.79</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>16.87</td>
<td>16.63</td>
<td>16.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.95</td>
<td>7.78</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
<td>8.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>8.41</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>-16.4%</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover A Bit More 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 4, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004c.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales rose another 0.6% last week following a 0.1% up tick the week prior. For the full month, however, sales look to have fallen 1.7% from the August average which fell 0.1% from July. 
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 1.0% higher (-1.9% y/y) following declines during four of the prior five weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/31/05</th>
<th scope="col">09/24/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>448.0</td>
<td>445.5</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Factory Inventories Slip 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 4, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004e.jpg" width="353">
Factory inventories slipped 0.1% in August following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July. To emphasize a notion that the turn toward inventory restocking has not yet begun, factory inventories less petroleum gave back most of the prior month&#39;s gain, fell 0.2% and have been virtually unchanged since March.
Electrical equipment inventories fell 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) for the fourth straight monthly decline. Computer inventories also slipped 0.2% (-0.5% y/y), primary metal inventories fell 0.5% (+17.6% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly drop and fabricated metals fell for the fourth consecutive month, off 0.4% (+7.1% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (9.7% y/y) led by turbines and construction machinery.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004d.jpg" width="353">
Factory shipments surged 1.7% following a downwardly revised July gain. Less a 4.7% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, factory shipments surged 1.4% (3.6% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments jumped 2.1% (6.0% y/y) and machinery rose 1.4% (8.4% y/y).
Factory sector orders reversed all of a a deepened 2.5% decline in July. The advance report of a surge in durables orders was little revised and they rose 3.3%.
Unfilled orders added 1.6% to the 1.0% jump in July. Nondefense aircraft &amp; parts (32.5% y/y) again led the strength with a 3.9% surge. Less the transportation sector altogether, backlogs rose 1.8% (9.0% y/y) and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments continued a moderate climb.<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/07/Gali.pdf"> </a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Varied Reports of Inflation 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> October 4, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004f.jpg" width="353">
Diverse inflation rates, defined as the year-over-year percentage increases in the consumer price indexes, were reported for six countries--Indonesia, Korea, Peru, Switzerland, Turkey and Venezuela--yesterday and today.
The two oil producing countries, Indonesia and Venezuela, reported inflation rates of 16.0% and 9.1%, respectively. The trends in their inflation rates are shown in the first chart. From a peak of near 40% in mid 2002, inflation in Venezuela appears to have stabilized at about 15%. Indonesia, which is the only member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that is a net oil importer, has held inflation in check, until recently, by subsidizing domestic fuel costs. On October 1, however, the government reduced, dramatically, these subsidies by almost tripling the price of kerosene and more than doubling the price of diesel. The central bank has just raised its benchmark interest rate a full point to 11%, the highest rate in more than two years to contain the expected rise in inflation.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004g.jpg" width="353">
Peru which suffered bouts of hyper inflation prior to the early nineties experienced a marked decline in its inflation through early 2002, when it subsequently began to rise moderately. From a peak of 4.75% in July, 2004, it has since declined to 1.11% in September. As one of the currently low inflation countries its inflation rate is shown with that of Switzerland, another low inflation country, albeit of longer standing. In September Peru&#39;s inflation rate at 1.11% was actually below that of Switzerland&#39;s 1.36%.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051004h.jpg" width="353">
Turkey is another country that has experienced bouts of hyper inflation in the past and has since taken measures that have brought about a reduction in the rate of inflation from 73% in January, 2002 to 8% in September. In the third chart inflation in Turkey is shown with that of Korea. Different scales have been used in this chart as inflation in Korea has ranged only between roughly 2% and 5.2% while that of Turkey has ranged from 7% to 73%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Consumer Price Indexes</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 05</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 &nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">2002 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Indonesia (2002=1000</td>
<td>124.33</td>
<td>123.48</td>
<td>114.00</td>
<td>0.89</td>
<td>9.06</td>
<td>6.06</td>
<td>6.77</td>
<td>11.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Korea (2000=100)</td>
<td>119.0</td>
<td>118.2</td>
<td>115.9</td>
<td>0.68</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.51</td>
<td>2.76</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Peru (12/2001=100)</td>
<td>108.58</td>
<td>108.68</td>
<td>107.39</td>
<td>-0.09</td>
<td>1.11</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.26</td>
<td>0.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Switzerland (5/2000=100)</td>
<td>104.7</td>
<td>104.3</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>0.38</td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>0.82</td>
<td>0.63</td>
<td>0.64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Turkey (2003=100)</td>
<td>118.33</td>
<td>117.13</td>
<td>109.57</td>
<td>1.02</td>
<td>7.99</td>
<td>8.60</td>
<td>21.60</td>
<td>44.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Venezuela (1997=100)</td>
<td>513.85</td>
<td>505.35</td>
<td>442.26</td>
<td>1.48</td>
<td>15.96</td>
<td>21.75</td>
<td>31.04</td>
<td>22.43</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051003d.jpg" width="353">
Preliminary results of .the Bank of Japan&#39;s Tankan Survey were moderately disappointing, falling short of consensus expectations. The percent balance between optimists and pessimists evaluating the current conditions in the third quarter was 19%, compared with 18% for the second quarter. The consensus was 20-21%. The forecast for the fourth quarter is for an excess of 18% for optimists over pessimists. Although the results have fallen short of expectation, they continue to show a healthy increase of optimists over pessimists, compared to the past, as can be seen in the two attached charts, which show the appraisals of current conditions and forecasts for the following quarter. To show some perspective we have added the DISCONTINUED series to the current data that are available only from early 2004.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051003e.jpg" width="353">
The major differences between the current and the discontinued series are (1) a revised industrial classification, (2) changed sampling measures to conform with the 2001 census and (3) a change in the definition of size from one based on the number of employees to one based on capitalization.
Several commentators have suggested that the high price of oil has played a significant role in dampening business confidence. In an interview with the Financial Times, Kazuo Momma, head of economic assessment and projection at the bank of Japan, while granting the serious direct effects of the high price of oil on Japanese business confidence, also stressed his longer term concerns. &quot;We are more worried about the indirect, second wave effects coming from the slowdown of the world economy, particularly the US and China.&quot; 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/JAPAN.HTM">Tankan Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp; 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 05</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 05</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 04&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 04</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Large Manufacturing Enterprises</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Forecast</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary results of .the Bank of Japan's Tankan Survey were moderately disappointing, falling short of consensus expectations. The percent balance between optimists and pessimists evaluating the current conditions in the third [...]

Japan's Tankan Survey Moderately Disappointing

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250813A2.jpg

250813B2.jpg

Mortgage applications increased 10.9% (11.9% y/y) in the week ending August 8, after rising 3.1% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loan refinancing surged 23.0% (7.5% y/y) last week, following a 5.2% gain in the prior week. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 1.4% (16.3% y/y) last week, following a 1.5% rise in the week of August 1.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 6.86% in the week ending August 8 after falling to 6.94%	 in the prior week. It was the lowest rate since the first week of March, down from a high of 7.28% in the second week of January. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined to 6.09% in the latest week from 6.19% in the week of August 1. Conversely, the rate on 30-year Jumbo loans increased to 6.86% last week from 6.82% one week earlier. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped to 6.05% in the week of August 8 after falling to 6.25% in the prior week. It was the lowest rate since the second week of March.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan jumped to 46.5% of total applications in the week ending August 8, from 41.5% in the prior week. The share hit a low of 34.6% in the fourth week of May. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 9.60% in the latest week from 8.50% in the week of August 1.

The average size of a mortgage loan jumped 4.5% (-1.1% y/y) to $398,700 in the week of August 8, following a 1.9% rise in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan fell 1.2%, little changed y/y, to $426,900 in the latest week after gaining 0.7% in the week ending August 1. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage surged 18.3% (-3.0% y/y) to $366,400 last week, after rising 5.2% in the prior week. It was increased from $277,900 in the last week of May.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Loan refinancing continues to strengthen as purchase applications rise slightly.
- Effective fixed-interest rate on 30-year loans falls to four-month low.
- Average loan size continues to increase.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Surge Last Week as Interest Rates Slip

Robert Brusca

250813E.jpg

In what is becoming a more common global story, confidence in Norway is rebounding after an earlier significant setback as countries recalibrate their circumstances under the revised Trump's tariff format. Norwegian consumer confidence had slipped in the second quarter to -19.1 from -5.4 in the first quarter, but now in the third quarter, confidence is snapping back to a -3.2 reading, the strongest reading since the first quarter of 2022.

Of course, there's a lot in the mix for this important northern European economy. Norway is an oil economy, and it also is one of the economies that is more vulnerable to relations with Russia. It has a relatively short but direct common border with Russia in the far north; otherwise, the borders are with Sweden and Finland. Still, with conditions in Russia touch and go and with Russian aircraft occasionally testing the air defenses the Baltic region, this is a geopolitically sensitive location.

On the economic front, inflation has been creeping up but the headline and core inflation rates are above the 2% mark and largely occupying space between 2.5% and 3%. Economic performance has been a bit uneven with the unemployment rate beginning to move up, as that rate has been notching steadily higher as 2025 has progressed. The last move by the central bank was to cut its key interest rate on site deposits. With the unemployment rate rising, there was little reaction in the bond market to this, especially in the environment where the manufacturing sector continues to be under pressure as it is for the most part globally with output in Norway contracting over the past two months (Y/Y).

Consumers’ rating of the environment for spending improved in the third quarter after deteriorating sharply in Q2. Its improvement brings it to a level above where it was in the first quarter as well; however, on ranked data back to the early 1990s the environment for making a major purchase still only has an 11.4 percentile standing, a relatively weak performance.

The assessment of the overall economy for the next year improved sharply once again after falling sharply in the second quarter. This metric had a value of 5.1 in the first quarter that slipped back to -21.2 in the second quarter; since then, the third quarter has gained some of that back at a survey reading of -3.3. It's still not back to its first quarter level, and it still is a reading that represents relatively weak performance as it has a 28.8 percentile standing which leaves it clearly in the bottom third of its queue of values since the early 1990s.

However, the personal finance readings do pick up for conditions expected for next year as the index evolves from a reading of 21.5 in the first quarter to 11.2 in the second quarter and back up to 21.8 in the third quarter of 2025. This reading brings the personal finance assessment to a 47-percentile standing, just slightly below its median for the period; at a level of 21.8, it's above its mean value of 20.1 for the period. This news on the personal finance front is better than anywhere else in the survey.

Consumer confidence is also rated according to age. And while there are some differences among the age-cohorts, for the most part they move and evaluated in unison. The queue rankings range from 16.7% (with the youngest growth at the low end) to 25.8% with the oldest group at the high end. Over 4 quarters, the changes in the age-cohort evaluations range from +11.1 to +18.7.

250813.jpg

On balance, Norway’s economy is experiencing some significant strains and it's unclear exactly where it stands trying to draw conclusions from quarterly data after these sharp gyrations as the economy tries to accustom itself to a new global tariff environment, the economic cycle, and deal with the geopolitical realities of the day. There's certainly a lot for Norwegians to sort out, for now confidence has made some recovery, and the economy is experiencing a bit of a soft spot. Consumers are managing to make the best of it, but they're still dealing with consumer confidence readings that have been weaker than this, only about 20% of the time so it's still a difficult slog for consumers.

Norway

Norway’s Confidence Steps Back Up in Q3 After Q2 Stumble

250812L1.jpg

250812M1.jpg

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in July after rising 0.3% in June and 0.1% in May. The July increase matched the forecast in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in July held steady with June, but was increased from 2.3% in April. It remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% last month after a 0.2% June rise and a 0.1% uptick in May. The 3.1% y/y July rise compared to 2.8% from March through May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices declined 1.1% (-1.6% y/y) last month after rising 0.9% in June. Gasoline prices weakened 2.2% (-9.5% y/y) after rising 1.0% in June. Fuel oil prices improved 1.8% (-2.9% y/y) after rising 1.3% in May. Natural gas prices fell 0.9% (+13.8% y/y) following a 0.5% gain, and electricity prices eased 0.1% (5.5% y/y) after rising 1.0% in June.

Food prices held steady in July (+2.9% y/y) following two straight 0.3% increases. Egg prices fell 3.9% (+16.4% y/y), off for the fourth straight month. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) after increasing 0.8%, while dairy product prices gained 0.7% (1.5% y/y), after easing in four of the last five months. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (+1.0% y/y) for the second straight month while fruit & vegetable prices held steady (0.2% y/y), following a 0.9% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices declined 0.5% (+3.6% y/y) in July after rising 1.4% in June.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in July for the second straight month. The 1.2% y/y price gain is up from slight y/y declines in the first three months of this year. Prices of used cars and trucks rose 0.5% (+4.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.7% in June, while new vehicle costs held steady (+0.4% y/y) after falling 0.3% for two consecutive months. Apparel prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y) in July after rising 0.4%. Appliance prices fell 0.9% (-0.3% y/y), after strengthening 1.9%. Home furnishings prices increased 0.7% (2.4% y/y) after rising 1.0%. Recreation product costs rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in July, after a 0.8% increase. Education & communication product costs declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) after holding steady in June. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.1% y/y) for the second straight month.

Services prices less energy strengthened 0.4% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.3% in June. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y), the same as in June, as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) for the third straight month. The cost of lodging away from home declined 1.0% (-3.5% y/y), the fifth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y), after two consecutive 0.2% increases. Transportation service prices jumped 0.8% (3.5% y/y) after gaining 0.2% and the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (5.3% y/y) in July, the same as in June. Public transportation costs increased 3.0% (0.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% during June. The cost of medical services increased 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.6% rise, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.2% in June. Education & communication services prices rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in June.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250812N1.jpg

250812O1.jpg

- Decline in energy & stable food prices reduce overall strength.
- Core inflation picks up with tariff effects.
- Core goods prices strengthen but core services inflation steadies.

U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Eases in July

Winnie Tapasanun

250812T43.jpg

250812U43.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 100.3 in July, the highest level since February, from 98.6 in June and 98.8 in May, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the third consecutive month that the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December but up from 93.7 in July 2024 and a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components rose, two fell, and two were unchanged. Amid high uncertainty (with tariffs, inflation, and international conflicts), the NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 97 in July, the highest reading in five months, after a five-point decline to 89 in June. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October, was above its recent low of 86 in December and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the ninth straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve rose to 36% in July, the highest level since February, following a three-point decline to 22% in June; thus, having remained significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales slipped to a net 6% in July after a three-point decrease to 7% in June, posting the lowest of three successive positive readings. The latest figure was above its recent low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -5% in June. The latest result was below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business rose to 16% in July, the highest reading since January, from 11% in June; the latest figure, while down from its most recent high of 20% in December, was up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rebounded to 22% in July following a one-point dip to 21% in June; these numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November and a high of 31% in October 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions registered at -4% for the third consecutive month in July; this steady reading was slightly below its recent high of -2% in December but above a low of -11% in November 2023.

On the labor front, forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in July, down from 50% in June. These numbers were below their recent high of 56% in August 2024, a high of 57% in September 2023, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 14% planned to increase employment in July, slightly up from 13% in June and posting the highest reading since February; it was above its recent low of 11% in March 2024 but below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 33% reported positions not able to be filled in July, down from 36% in June and registering the lowest reading since January 2021; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure held at -22% in July and June, a poor reading, following a five-point drop to -26% in May. These readings, while up from a low of -37% in August 2024, remained below a high of -18% in March 2023 and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level; thus, suggesting continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices fell to 24% in July, the lowest reading since January, after a four-point rise to 29% in June. These numbers were up from 22% in July 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices fell to a three-month-low 28% in July following a one-point increase to 32% in June; these figures were above 24% in July 2024 but below a high of 33% in March 2024 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation, while relatively high, eased in the July survey. A net 27% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, down from 33% reported in the June survey. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 17% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 19% reported in June and posting the lowest reading in three months; these numbers were below a high of 28% in November, a high of 30% in November 2023, and a high of 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was reported as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in July, up five points from 16% in June; it registered the highest reading since August 2024 and the biggest m/m increase since August 2022. Taxes were reported as the next most important problem, with 17% reported in July vs. 19% in June. Inflation continued to be a problem facing small businesses, as reported by 11% in July and June, the lowest reading since September 2021; the figure was well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in July vs. June) included poor sales (11% vs. 10%), the cost of labor (9% vs. 10%), government requirements (8% vs. 9%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (6% vs. 7%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

250812V43.jpg

250812W43.jpg

- July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 1.7 pts. to 100.3.
- Uncertainty Index up 8 pts. to a 5-month-high 97.
- Expectations for economy up 14 pts. to 36%, the highest since Feb.
- Plans to expand business up 5 pts. to 16%, the highest since Jan.
- Expected real sales down 1 pt. to 6%, still positive for the third straight month.
- Percent of firms raising avg. selling prices down 5 pts. to a 6-month-low 24%.
- Quality of labor (21%), taxes (17%), and inflation (11%) are the top three business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises in July; Highest Level Since February

250812C0.jpg

250812D0.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades, on average, dipped to $3.24 per gallon (-8.1% y/y) last week after rising to $3.27 one week earlier. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.75 per gallon (+1.3% y/y) in the week of August 11 after easing to $3.80 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $64.71 per barrel (-14.6% y/y) in the week ended August 8 from $68.50 in the prior week. The drop left prices at the lowest level since the first week of June. Prices, nonetheless, remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.96 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $68.17 per barrel (-13.5% y/y) in the week of August 8, after rising to $70.09 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $67.36 per gallon yesterday.

Natural gas prices slipped to an average $2.99/mmbtu (+59.0% y/y) in the week ended August 8, after falling to an average $3.03/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.05 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 2.2% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, following a 3.0% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, after a 1.5% y/y increase in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 2.9% y/y in the four weeks ending August 1, after a 1.7% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 0.9% y/y in the week ending August 1 after a 2.1% y/y in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 25.8% y/y in the week of August 1, after a 22.5% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7% y/y in the week of August, after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories held at 25.5 days in the week of August 1. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil eased to 25.0 days in the week of August 1 from 25.2 days in the prior week and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil prices decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices ease.


Economy in Brief: October 2005

Jump to:

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Back Down

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Back Down

Varied Reports of Inflation

U.S. Factory Inventories Slip

Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover A Bit More

U.S. Vehicle Sales Slide As Truck Sales Collapse

U.S. Vehicle Sales Slide As Truck Sales Collapse

Japan's Tankan Survey Moderately Disappointing