Global| Oct 04 2005U.S. Factory Inventories Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories slipped 0.1% in August following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July. To emphasize a notion that the turn toward inventory restocking has not yet begun, factory inventories less petroleum gave back most of the [...]
Factory inventories slipped 0.1% in August following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July. To emphasize a notion that the turn toward inventory restocking has not yet begun, factory inventories less petroleum gave back most of the prior month's gain, fell 0.2% and have been virtually unchanged since March.
Electrical equipment inventories fell 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) for the fourth straight monthly decline. Computer inventories also slipped 0.2% (-0.5% y/y), primary metal inventories fell 0.5% (+17.6% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly drop and fabricated metals fell for the fourth consecutive month, off 0.4% (+7.1% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (9.7% y/y) led by turbines and construction machinery.
Factory shipments surged 1.7% following a downwardly revised July gain. Less a 4.7% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, factory shipments surged 1.4% (3.6% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments jumped 2.1% (6.0% y/y) and machinery rose 1.4% (8.4% y/y).
Factory sector orders reversed all of a a deepened 2.5% decline in July. The advance report of a surge in durables orders was little revised and they rose 3.3%.
Unfilled orders added 1.6% to the 1.0% jump in July. Nondefense aircraft & parts (32.5% y/y) again led the strength with a 3.9% surge. Less the transportation sector altogether, backlogs rose 1.8% (9.0% y/y) and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments continued a moderate climb.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.1% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| New Orders | 2.5% | -2.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 3.5% | -2.5% |
| Shipments | 1.7% | 0.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.6% | 1.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | -8.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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