Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050303c.jpg" width="353">
The Institute for Supply Management reported that the February Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 59.8 from 59.2 the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 57.0.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 50% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in real GDP for services plus construction.
The employment sub index jumped 7.4 points to a record high. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
The new orders index rose to 61.6, the high end of a tight range held for the last year.
Pricing power eased a bit m/m to the lowest level in nearly a year.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050303d.jpg" width="353">
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.
Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/827/ifdp827.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Feb &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>59.8</td>
<td>59.2</td>
<td>60.8</td>
<td>62.4</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>55.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>66.6</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>69.0</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>54.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Productivity Growth Revised Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 3, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050303a.jpg" width="353">
Non-farm labor productivity growth for 4Q04 was revised upward to 2.1%, reflecting an upward revision to output growth. Nevertheless, productivity growth for the full year of 4.0% was the lowest since 2001. The late year slowdown reduced 4Q/4Q growth to 2.8%. Consensus expectations had been for a revision to 1.4% growth for 4Q. Figures were revised back to 2000.
Output growth was revised up as expected to 3.7% (4.4% y/y) from 2.8% and reflected an accounting for higher exports to Canada. Growth in hours worked was revised down to 1.6% from 1.9%.
The upward revision to productivity lowered the estimate of unit labor cost growth to 1.3% from 2.3%. Annual growth of 0.4% followed two years of decline. Compensation growth was revised up to 3.4% (4.2% y/y) from 3.1%.
Productivity in the manufacturing sector was revised slightly higher to 5.8% (5.2% y/y) from 5.6%. Unit labor cost growth in the factory sector held at 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) but compensation growth was revised up.
International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/826/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EC/@EC02/@EC02.HTM">Non-farm Business Sector</a> (SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Revised)</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Output per Hour</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Labor Costs</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slipped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 3, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050303b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped 1,000 to 310,000 last week and the prior week&#39;s moderate rise was lessened. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 307,0000 (-13.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 12,000 and the prior week&#39;s decline was lessened to 52,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/26/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>310</td>
<td>311</td>
<td>-9.4%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,650</td>
<td>-15.8%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The Institute for Supply Management reported that the February Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 59.8 from 59.2 the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 57.0. Since the series' [...]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Higher

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302d.jpg" width="353">
Eurostat today reported Euro-Zone GDP for Q4 2004. It grew 0.2% (1.0% annualized) in that quarter; this was marginally stronger than in Q3, which is also shown as 0.2%, but annualizes to 0.6%. Q4 was 1.6% ahead of the year-earlier period and the year as a whole saw growth in the 12 countries of 1.8%. Both yearly growth rates were much improved over 2003, when Q4/Q4 was 0.8% and the overall year relative to 2002 was just 0.5%.
The growth improvement was spread across most expenditure segments. European consumers expanded their spending somewhat in Q4, relative to the performance in both Q3 and the year-ago quarter. Exports in the region picked-up considerably; so did imports, but on net, trade assisted growth in being a significantly smaller drag than it had been the year before. Investment firmed considerably. Among major components, only government consumption failed to accelerate, although it did continue to expand.
Several sectors contributed to Europe&#39;s growth. Value added in trade and transportation gained 2.6%, Q4/Q4, versus 0.4% in 2003. Construction activity expanded 0.8%, but it had contracted by 1% in 2003, again on a Q4/Q4 trend basis. Agriculture and related sectors surged 5.9%, a turnaround from a 2.0% contraction the prior year. Industry grew 1.2%, slightly ahead of 2003&#39;s 0.9%. However, industrial activity declined on a quarterly basis in both Q3 and Q4, leaving it on a weakening path as the year ended.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/@G7/@G72/@G7204/@G7204.HTM">Euro-Zone: GDP by Industry</a> % Changes, SA data</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q4/Q4</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Agriculture &amp; Related</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industry</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade, Transport, Communication</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Finance &amp; Real Estate</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Other Services</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Eurostat today reported Euro-Zone GDP for Q4 2004. It grew 0.2% (1.0% annualized) in that quarter; this was marginally stronger than in Q3, which is also shown as 0.2%, but annualizes to 0.6%. Q4 was 1.6% ahead of the year-earlier [...]

Euro-Zone GDP Grows 0.2% in Q4; Services, Construction, Agriculture Lead 2004 Gains

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302c.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements rose 17.4% last month and reversed most of the decline in January.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring rose to 41,984 jobs, up sharply from 4Q.
During the last ten years there has been an 85% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Increases in job cut announcements were notable last month in the telecommunications, transportation, insurance, energy and consumer goods industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>108,387</td>
<td>92,351</td>
<td>40.3%</td>
<td>1,039,175</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements rose 17.4% last month and reversed most of the decline in January. Challenger also reported that announced hiring rose to 41,984 jobs, up sharply from 4Q. During the [...]

Challenger Layoff Count Back Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302b.jpg" width="353">
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell 2.4% last week following two weeks of slight decline.
Applications to refinance plunged 9.9% w/w and reversed most of the gains of the prior three weeks.
Purchase applications did rise 5.3% but the average in February is up just slightly from January. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.98% versus 5.92% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.59% last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/25/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>710.1</td>
<td>727.9</td>
<td>-19.2%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>440.0</td>
<td>417.8</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,281.1</td>
<td>2,532.0</td>
<td>-35.4%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell 2.4% last week following two weeks of slight decline. Applications to refinance plunged 9.9% w/w and reversed most of the gains of the prior three weeks. [...]

Mortgage Applications Lower With Fewer Refi's

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302a.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles in February edged up 0.5% versus January to 16.30M according to Autodata Corporation. Versus last year sales fell 1.3% and so far in 1Q sales have averaged 16.26M, down from 17.25M in 4Q04.
Sales of light trucks rose a moderate 1.4% m/m but sales of imports posted a 5.3% (+2.0%) gain. Sales of domestic light trucks rose 0.8% (-1.7% y/y).
Total auto sales fell 0.6% following a 10.8% slide in January. Sales of domestic autos fell 2.6% (-3.2% y/y) while imported car sales rose 4.7% (3.5 y/y).
Imports&#39; share of the US market for new vehicles rose to 20.6% in February.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan&#39;s testimony titled Economic outlook and current fiscal issues can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/20050302/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.30</td>
<td>16.22</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>16.88</td>
<td>16.63</td>
<td>16.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.36</td>
<td>7.41</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
<td>8.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>8.94</td>
<td>8.81</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>9.39</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Unit sales of light vehicles in February edged up 0.5% versus January to 16.30M according to Autodata Corporation. Versus last year sales fell 1.3% and so far in 1Q sales have averaged 16.26M, down from 17.25M in 4Q04. Sales of light [...]

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Lackluster

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302a.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles in February edged up 0.5% versus January to 16.30M according to Autodata Corporation. Versus last year sales fell 1.3% and so far in 1Q sales have averaged 16.26M, down from 17.25M in 4Q04.
Sales of light trucks rose a moderate 1.4% m/m but sales of imports posted a 5.3% (+2.0%) gain. Sales of domestic light trucks rose 0.8% (-1.7% y/y).
Total auto sales fell 0.6% following a 10.8% slide in January. Sales of domestic autos fell 2.6% (-3.2% y/y) while imported car sales rose 4.7% (3.5 y/y).
Imports&#39; share of the US market for new vehicles rose to 20.6% in February.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan&#39;s testimony titled Economic outlook and current fiscal issues can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/20050302/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.30</td>
<td>16.22</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>16.88</td>
<td>16.63</td>
<td>16.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.36</td>
<td>7.41</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
<td>8.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>8.94</td>
<td>8.81</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>9.39</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Lower With Fewer Refi's 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 2, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302b.jpg" width="353">
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell 2.4% last week following two weeks of slight decline.
Applications to refinance plunged 9.9% w/w and reversed most of the gains of the prior three weeks.
Purchase applications did rise 5.3% but the average in February is up just slightly from January. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.98% versus 5.92% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.59% last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/25/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>710.1</td>
<td>727.9</td>
<td>-19.2%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>440.0</td>
<td>417.8</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,281.1</td>
<td>2,532.0</td>
<td>-35.4%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoff Count Back Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 2, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050302c.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements rose 17.4% last month and reversed most of the decline in January.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring rose to 41,984 jobs, up sharply from 4Q.
During the last ten years there has been an 85% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Increases in job cut announcements were notable last month in the telecommunications, transportation, insurance, energy and consumer goods industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>108,387</td>
<td>92,351</td>
<td>40.3%</td>
<td>1,039,175</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050301e.jpg" width="353">
Today&#39;s releases of data on production, sales, employment and survey results for Japan have failed to clear the cloudy outlook.
Industrial production for manufacturing increased 2% in January from December, but the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)&#39;s survey forecast a decline of 0.5% for Februaryand one of 1.0% for March. Although the forecasts (found in the Industrial Production Section of Haver&#39;s Japan data base) tend to overestimate the magnitudes of the changes, they do a good job in predicting the direction of the change, as can be seen in the first chart.
Retail sales were up 5.71% in January over December and 1.66% above January of a year ago. The magnitude of the January increase may merely be a bounce back from the depressed sales at the end of 2004, due, in part to the negative effect of unusual weather conditions--earthquakes and the tsunami--on sales in the latter part of 2004. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.5% in January and employment increased 0.74%. The Household Survey conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication shows a sharp rise of 11.52% in disposable income of worker households in January, but again this appears to be bounce back from the sharp decline in December. A similar, but more muted trend is shown in Living Expenditures of these households.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050301d.jpg" width="353">
The Shoko Chukin Small/Medium Firm Survey indicates that these firms were expecting some improvement in business conditions in February and March, but were forecasting a decline in sales, the first decline since December 2002.The mixed message of these data is shown in chart two.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 05 M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Dec&nbsp;04 M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 04 M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 04 M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2002&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production Mfg (2000=100)</td>
<td>2.10</td>
<td>-0.79</td>
<td>1.72</td>
<td>-1.29</td>
<td>1.09</td>
<td>100.1</td>
<td>95.1</td>
<td>92.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales&nbsp; (2000=100)</td>
<td>5.71</td>
<td>-0.76</td>
<td>-0.46</td>
<td>0.33</td>
<td>2.23</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>92.5</td>
<td>94.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>0.27</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
<td>-0.24</td>
<td>0.65</td>
<td>6.3 mil</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Household Survey</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Disposable Income</td>
<td>11.52</td>
<td>-9.21</td>
<td>0.53</td>
<td>-1.45</td>
<td>0.73</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>93.3</td>
<td>95.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Living Expenditures</td>
<td>7.70</td>
<td>-2.40</td>
<td>0.42</td>
<td>0.21</td>
<td>2.55</td>
<td>97.1</td>
<td>95.6</td>
<td>97.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Small/Medium Firm Survey</td>
<td>Mar 05</td>
<td>Feb 05</td>
<td>Jan 05</td>
<td>Dec 04</td>
<td>&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;2003</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2002&nbsp; &nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Conditions Per cent Better-Worse</td>
<td>50.2</td>
<td>47.6</td>
<td>47.3</td>
<td>48.4</td>
<td>49.6</td>
<td>46.4</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Sales Y/Y %</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production Forecast</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Today's releases of data on production, sales, employment and survey results for Japan have failed to clear the cloudy outlook. Industrial production for manufacturing increased 2% in January from December, but the Ministry of [...]

Japanese Economic Outlook Still Cloudy--Much New Data Notwithstanding

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050301a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales jumped 1.5% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The strong end to February pulled the month&#39;s average 1.0% ahead of January and last week&#39;s sales were 3.8% above four weeks earlier.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC, down 0.6% (-0.2% y/y), fell for the second consecutive week. The indicator&#39;s February average nevertheless remained above January.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/26/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>452.5</td>
<td>445.6</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Chain store sales jumped 1.5% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The strong end to February pulled the month's average 1.0% ahead of January and last week's sales were 3.8% above [...]

Chain Store Sales Jumped Last Week

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

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Winnie Tapasanun

251230J46.jpg

251230K46.jpg

U.S. house prices rose 0.4% m/m in October following a 0.1% dip in September (0.0% initially) and a 0.4% rise in August (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. October marked the second m/m increase in three months after no change in July. The HPI reached a record high of 436.75 in October, up 13.4% from its August 2022 low of 384.98. The year-on-year rate of increase eased to 1.7% in October from 1.8% in September—the slowest pace since March 2012—down from 4.7% in October 2024 and well below a high of 18.6% in February 2022.

House prices increased m/m in October (vs. September) across seven of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by West South Central (+1.0% vs. -1.6%), followed by New England (+0.9% vs. -0.3%), East North Central (+0.6% vs. +0.7%), Mountain (+0.6% vs. -0.8%), West North Central (+0.6% vs. +0.6%), Middle Atlantic (+0.4% vs. +0.2%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in two census divisions in October (vs. September): East South Central (-0.4% vs. +0.7%) and South Atlantic (-0.2% vs. -0.2%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in October across most regions, except West South Central and South Atlantic. The y/y pace accelerated in October (vs. September) in four of the nine census divisions: West North Central (+3.8% vs. +3.2%), New England (+3.7% vs. +3.2%), Mountain (+0.3% vs. -0.8%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. -0.6%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in October (vs. September) in East South Central (+1.5% vs. +2.7%), East North Central (+5.1% vs. +5.4%), and Middle Atlantic (+5.3% vs. +5.4%). To the downside, West South Central (-0.7% vs. -1.0%) and South Atlantic (-0.5% vs. +0.4%) were the only regions posting y/y declines in October (vs. September).

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

The minutes to the December 9–10 **FOMC** meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251210.pdf).

251230L46.jpg

251230M46.jpg

- FHFA HPI +0.4% m/m (+1.7% y/y) in Oct.; second m/m gain in three months.
- House prices up m/m in seven of nine census divisions but down in East South Central (-0.4%) and South Atlantic (-0.2%).
- House prices up y/y in seven of nine regions, led by Middle Atlantic (+5.3%), but down in West South Central (-0.7%) and South Atlantic (-0.5%).

U.S. FHFA House Prices Rebound in October Following September’s Easing

Robert Brusca

251230E.jpg

When inflation numbers come hot off the griddle, some part of them might stick to the pan. That's the case this month with Spain’s release of inflation in December. It provides us with the headline for the HICP measure, a headline to the domestic measure, and the domestic measure excluding energy. But it does not release the sector detail for the rest of the report.

However, based upon what's been released, it’s clear that inflation in Spain has picked up. The part of the core that we have in-hand, which is just the portion excluding energy, still appears to be fairly well behaved; however, its gain is still slightly excessive.

**HICP trend**
Spain’s HICP measure in December rose 0.4% after rising by 0.5% in both October and November; those are hot numbers. That translates into a 5.7% annual rate over three months which is hotter than its pace of 4.5% over six months which in turn is hotter than the 12-month increase of 3%. The HCP headline for Spain has clearly been accelerating, the year-over-year rise is too-hot, and the shorter-term metrics are hotter still. This is not good news, and this is not a welcome progression.

**Domestic inflation**
Looking at Spain’s domestic CPI conditions, we find that they are still on the hot side with December showing a headline gain of 0.3% but gains in October and November of 0.5% each, producing a three-month annual rate of 5.4%, which is hotter than its 4.2% over six months, which, in turn, is hotter than the year-over-year gain at 2.9%. And these patterns/results are very similar to the pattern and the readings for the HICP. The domestic inflation picture is too hot over 12 months and accelerating over the shorter periods.

**Domestic inflation ex-energy:** The CPI excluding energy is not as bloated as the HICP or the domestic headline, but it is still a reading on rough terrain. Over 12 months, inflation excluding energy rises at a 2.6% annual rate; that's above the 2% pace sought by the ECB for the community as a whole. Over six months, the reading ramps up to a 3.1% annual rate, again moving the wrong direction and a reading at 3.1% is simply too hot. Over three months, there's a slight deceleration compared to six months but still a rate that is too hot, at 2.9%, and stronger than the 12-month pace. Core inflation is better behaved than headline inflation and both the domestic and the HICP frameworks, but inflation is unruly overall and, for the most part, showing either acceleration or at least a 3-month pace stronger than its 12-month pace. None of this is what the ECB is looking for or trying to achieve.

**Beyond the missing details**
The details of the Spanish report are missing for December because the data are too preliminary for the authorities to post. However, if we look at the sequential pace of inflation over 12 months, six months, and three months on a lagged basis, it is looking at data that are up-to-date through November rather than through December what's the numbers that are generally excessive and they show too much acceleration moving from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Over 12 months compared to a year ago, five of nine categories show inflation accelerating. Over 6 months compared to 12 months, four categories are accelerating. Over 3 months compared to 6 months, six of the nine categories are accelerating. These acceleration tendencies are worrisome.

In addition, over 12 months, six of nine categories have a pace above 2%. Over 6 months, six of nine categories have annualized gains above 2%, and over 3 months, the lagged data show six of nine categories with gains above 2%. Only apparel shows inflation tempered on all horizons (at or below 2%). Food, housing, transport, education and other all show above 2% inflation on all horizons.

251230.jpg

**Summing up-challenging times ahead?**
Is Spain past its best inflation performance? Is the inflation worm going to begin to turn more broadly? These are trends we will need to watch. Inflation broadly has slowed or stopped its declines and largely done that in Europe as well as in the United States. Inflation is now hovering at a pace that is too strong- maybe tolerable or maybe not. Central banks need to decide and tell us what a 2% target means. Then, the question of what’s next hangs in the air. U.K. inflation remains excessive but has stepped down as the economy has begun to experience some significantly weaker economic data. Is that the future? Is it stagflation? Is it recovering from a slowdown and higher rates of interest and inflation? Or will there be continued inflation progress? Open the door on 2026…the envelope… please.

Spain

Spanish Inflation Flares at Year-End

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251229B23.jpg

General business activity in Texas declined further in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The overall measure, the general business activity index, fell to -10.9 in December, the lowest level since June, from -10.4 in November and -5.0 in October. The index, while above a low of -35.8 in April, was well below a high of +14.1 in January and +4.5 in December 2024. The index had been in negative territory from February through December 2025, except for a one-month positive reading of +0.9 in July. In December, 12.7% of respondents reported improved business activity, down from 18.9% in November, while 23.6% of respondents reported worsened business conditions, down from November's 29.3%. The company outlook index dropped to -11.9 in December, the fourth consecutive negative reading and the lowest since April, from -6.3 in November. Just 10.8% of respondents expected improved company outlook this month while 22.7% expected deterioration. Data were collected between December 15 and 23 from 74 Texas manufacturers.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, plunged to -3.2 in December after a 15.3-point jump to 20.5 in November, indicating production contracted for the first time since February. A lessened 17.2% of respondents reported higher production this month while an increased 20.4% reported a decline. The capacity utilization index plummeted to -4.5 in December, the lowest reading since February, following a four-year-high 19.4 in November; it was up from a low of -15.0 in January 2024 but well below a record-high 46.3 in March 2021.

The growth rate of orders index declined steeply to -16.0 in December from -1.3 in November, marking the weakest of four successive negative readings and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -22.0 in April and a low of -24.3 in November 2023 but significantly below a peak of 29.6 in April 2021. The new orders index fell to -6.4 this month after rising to 4.8 in November, indicating a decline in demand for the third time in four months and the lowest level since June. The index was above a low of -20.0 in April and a low of -21.8 in November 2022 but well below a high of 22.6 in February 2022 and a record-high 38.6 in April 2021. The shipments index plunged to -10.6 this month after jumping to 15.1 in November, marking its first negative reading since June and the lowest since July 2024. The unfilled orders index dropped to -13.5 in December from -6.6 in November, registering the 16th straight negative reading and the lowest since November 2024. The index was below a high of 1.4 in August 2024 but above a low of -26.3 in July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery time index increased to 3.3 this month, the highest reading since March, from -8.4 in November.

Labor market indexes showed flat employment conditions and shorter workweeks in December. The employment index slipped to -1.1 this month from 1.2 in November, marking its first negative reading since September, with the near-zero level indicating little change in employment. The latest reading, while up from a low of -9.7 in January 2024, was far below a high of 17.9 in January 2023 and a record-high 31.8 in April 2021. A lessened 12.3% of respondents reported net hiring in December while 13.4% reported net layoffs. The hours worked index fell sharply to -7.5 this month, the lowest reading since June, after rising to 9.9 in November. Meanwhile, the wages & benefits index climbed to 21.8 in December, the highest level since October 2024 and near its series average of 21.0, up from 15.4 in November; nevertheless, having been trending downward since a peak of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflationary pressures were little changed this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 8.2 in December following a 3.1-point rise to 10.8 in November; it was up from a low of -7.0 in November 2023 but meaningfully below a high of 47.4 in March 2022 and a peak of 51.4 in October 2021. In December, 13.1% of respondents reported raising prices while only 4.9% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 36.0 this month, the highest reading since September, after a 1.9-point increase to 35.3 in November. The index was well above a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but significantly below 73.2 in March 2022 and a record-high 83.8 in November 2021.

Expectations on future manufacturing activity remained positive this month. The future general business activity index dipped to 10.8 in December after rising to 11.0 in November, registering the eighth straight positive reading. The future production index rose to a four-month-high 34.2 from November’s 33.7. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity also rose in December (vs. November), signaling increased activity six months ahead: company outlook (16.5 vs. 16.2), shipments (33.9 vs. 27.0), wages & benefits (42.5 vs. 39.1), and capital expenditures (17.7 vs. 12.9). Meanwhile, future indexes for capacity utilization (28.9 vs. 34.0), new orders (30.5 vs. 39.2), growth rate of new orders (24.9 vs. 27.8), and employment (20.9 vs. 22.3) declined in December (vs. November), but they remained in positive territory.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General Business Activity down in Dec. to -10.9, lowest level since June.
- Company Outlook (-11.9) negative for the fourth straight mth. and at an eight-month low; Production (-3.2) negative for the first time since Feb.
- New Orders Growth (-16.0) and New Orders (-6.4) at a six-month low.
- Employment (-1.1) negative for the first time since Sept.
- Prices Received down 2.6 pts. to 8.2; Prices Paid up 0.7 pts. to a three-month-high 36.0.
- Future General Business Activity down to 10.8, still positive for the eighth consecutive mth.

Texas General Business Activity Still Negative in December, But Expectations Remain Positive

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 3.3% m/m to 79.2 in November after increases of 2.4% in October (+1.9% initially) and 0.1% in September (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The November reading registered the fourth consecutive m/m gain after declining in July and June. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.6% in November, the highest since August, from 0.1% in October, though still below +6.0% y/y in November 2024. Despite recent gains, the PHSI had fallen 36.7% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m rise in November pending home sales coincided with a decline in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 6.24% in November, the lowest since September 2024, down from 6.25% in October and 6.35% in September. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained higher than a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales rose m/m in November across all four major regions. Sales in the West recovered 9.2% (2.4% y/y) in November, the first m/m increase since August, following a 1.4% decline in October. Sales in the South rose 2.4% (3.3% y/y), the fourth straight m/m rise, on top of a 2.7% October advance. Sales in the Northeast grew 1.8% (1.8% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 2.3% October gain. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.3% (2.2% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 5.3% November rebound.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI +3.3% (+2.6% y/y) in Nov., driven by lower mortgage rates.
- Home sales m/m up in all four major regions, w/ the highest rate in the West (+9.2%).
- Home sales y/y up across all regions, w/ the highest rate in the South (+3.3%).

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise for the Fourth Straight Month in November

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Swedish exports advanced month-to-month for the second month in a row while imports continued on a losing streak declining by 0.9% in November.

Exports have gradually been firming with exports falling by 6.1% over 12 months, rising at an annual rate of 4.8% over six months, and then rising at a 3.9% annual rate over three months. Exports are not on a steady acceleration path, but they have transitioned from a year-over-year growth rate that's negative to moderate positive short-term rates of growth.

Swedish imports, on the other hand, are weakening relatively sharply. Imports were down 4.4% over 12 months, down at a 1.2% annual rate over six months, and falling at a 17% annual rate over three months.

The global trade picture remains somewhat mixed. The Baltic Dry goods index, which is an indicator of global trade volume, has backed off of its highs but continues to post relatively steady volume indications. However, the S&P global manufacturing survey has been showing weakness; when manufacturing is weak, typically international trade is weak as well. Swedish trade may be picking up some of that weakness as well.

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On balance, Sweden's trade surplus has continued to recover and hold to a relatively high level over recent months as exports have maintained momentum better than imports.

Swedish domestic barometers of economic growth have remained relatively upbeat including orders and industrial production as well as employment growth and GDP. There is no reason there to expect weak imports based on the recent data we have seen. But then sometimes trade data show economic weakness first.   

At this time, the yearend weakness in Sweden’s imports is without a specific cause. Year-end flows can be surprising. Domestic demand, however, does not appear to be weak. But there is a good deal of weakness in Europe and the Ukraine-Russia war is still a nagging factor – a cloud that hangs over all of Europe with no certain end date or result in sight.

Economy in Brief: 2005

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Higher

Euro-Zone GDP Grows 0.2% in Q4; Services, Construction, Agriculture Lead 2004 Gains

Challenger Layoff Count Back Up

Mortgage Applications Lower With Fewer Refi's

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Lackluster

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