Global| Mar 02 2005U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Lackluster
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Unit sales of light vehicles in February edged up 0.5% versus January to 16.30M according to Autodata Corporation. Versus last year sales fell 1.3% and so far in 1Q sales have averaged 16.26M, down from 17.25M in 4Q04. Sales of light [...]
Unit sales of light vehicles in February edged up 0.5% versus January to 16.30M according to Autodata Corporation. Versus last year sales fell 1.3% and so far in 1Q sales have averaged 16.26M, down from 17.25M in 4Q04.
Sales of light trucks rose a moderate 1.4% m/m but sales of imports posted a 5.3% (+2.0%) gain. Sales of domestic light trucks rose 0.8% (-1.7% y/y).
Total auto sales fell 0.6% following a 10.8% slide in January. Sales of domestic autos fell 2.6% (-3.2% y/y) while imported car sales rose 4.7% (3.5 y/y).
Imports' share of the US market for new vehicles rose to 20.6% in February.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony titled Economic outlook and current fiscal issues can be found here.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 16.30 | 16.22 | -1.3% | 16.88 | 16.63 | 16.81 |
| Autos | 7.36 | 7.41 | -1.4% | 7.49 | 7.62 | 8.07 |
| Trucks | 8.94 | 8.81 | -1.2% | 9.39 | 9.01 | 8.74 |
by Tom Moeller March 2, 2005
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell 2.4% last week following two weeks of slight decline.
Applications to refinance plunged 9.9% w/w and reversed most of the gains of the prior three weeks.
Purchase applications did rise 5.3% but the average in February is up just slightly from January. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.98% versus 5.92% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.59% last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 02/25/05 | 02/18/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 710.1 | 727.9 | -19.2% | 735.1 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 |
| Purchase | 440.0 | 417.8 | 4.1% | 454.5 | 395.1 | 354.7 |
| Refinancing | 2,281.1 | 2,532.0 | -35.4% | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 |
by Tom Moeller March 2, 2005
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements rose 17.4% last month and reversed most of the decline in January.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring rose to 41,984 jobs, up sharply from 4Q.
During the last ten years there has been an 85% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Increases in job cut announcements were notable last month in the telecommunications, transportation, insurance, energy and consumer goods industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 108,387 | 92,351 | 40.3% | 1,039,175 | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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