Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506a.jpg" width="353">
April non-farm payrolls rose 274,000 following an upwardly revised 146,000 increase a month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 rise. The latest increase pulled the average three month change in payrolls (240,000) to its highest in nearly a year.
The household survey also indicated that the labor market remained firm as the unemployment rate held at a low 5.2%. Employment rose 598,000 (1.8% y/y) and the labor force rose 605,000 (1.3% y/y) as the participation rate rose to 66.0%, its highest this year. The number of job losers fell sharply for the fourth straight month (-15.0% y/y) due to a 21.1% decline in the number of permanent job losers versus last year.
Private service producing payrolls rose 211,000 (2.0% y/y) last month and gains were spread across industries. Total government employment rose 18,000 (0.7% y/y) but federal government jobs fell again (-1.1% y/y). Factory sector payrolls fell 6,000 for the third monthly decline this year though the breadth of hiring gain improved slightly to 50%. Six-month breadth remained low at 38.7%.
Construction jobs rose a firm 47,000 (4.3% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506b.jpg" width="353">
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.9% (3.1% y/y) helped higher by a jump in the length of the workweek to its highest since 2002. The level of hours worked began the quarter 4.4% (AR) ahead of 1Q05.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the second month and earnings in manufacturing recovered all of the prior month&#39;s 0.2% decline (2.3% y/y).
Evidence of Wage Inequality, Worker Education, and Technology from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/05/Wheeler.pdf"> here</a>.
A corrected FOMC Statement is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2005/20050503/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>274,000</td>
<td>146,000</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-6,000</td>
<td>-7,000</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>33.9</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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April non-farm payrolls rose 274,000 following an upwardly revised 146,000 increase a month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 rise. The latest increase pulled the average three month change in payrolls (240,000) [...]

U.S. Payrolls Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506a.jpg" width="353">
April non-farm payrolls rose 274,000 following an upwardly revised 146,000 increase a month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 175,000 rise. The latest increase pulled the average three month change in payrolls (240,000) to its highest in nearly a year.
The household survey also indicated that the labor market remained firm as the unemployment rate held at a low 5.2%. Employment rose 598,000 (1.8% y/y) and the labor force rose 605,000 (1.3% y/y) as the participation rate rose to 66.0%, its highest this year. The number of job losers fell sharply for the fourth straight month (-15.0% y/y) due to a 21.1% decline in the number of permanent job losers versus last year.
Private service producing payrolls rose 211,000 (2.0% y/y) last month and gains were spread across industries. Total government employment rose 18,000 (0.7% y/y) but federal government jobs fell again (-1.1% y/y). Factory sector payrolls fell 6,000 for the third monthly decline this year though the breadth of hiring gain improved slightly to 50%. Six-month breadth remained low at 38.7%.
Construction jobs rose a firm 47,000 (4.3% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506b.jpg" width="353">
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.9% (3.1% y/y) helped higher by a jump in the length of the workweek to its highest since 2002. The level of hours worked began the quarter 4.4% (AR) ahead of 1Q05.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the second month and earnings in manufacturing recovered all of the prior month&#39;s 0.2% decline (2.3% y/y).
Evidence of Wage Inequality, Worker Education, and Technology from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/05/Wheeler.pdf"> here</a>.
A corrected FOMC Statement is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2005/20050503/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>274,000</td>
<td>146,000</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-6,000</td>
<td>-7,000</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>33.9</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Some Employment Gains in Canada, But Lower Unemployment Reflects Reduced Participation 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 6, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506c.jpg" width="353">
The Canadian economy also experienced job growth in April, with a total employment gain of 29,300, following a slim 4,400 rise in March. The great part of the April move was in service industries, as the number of workers in the goods sector held just about steady. From a year ago, employment increased 1.4%, indicating some slowing after a 2% average annualized rate of increase over the past three years.
In the goods sectors, April&#39;s flat result was the net of a nearly offsetting rise in construction jobs and fall in manufacturing. These same two have maintained this kind of pattern over the last year as well. In service industries, firm uptrends are evident in trade, finance, professional services and education. Transportation, health care and accommodations and food service are losing jobs, although the declines in the latter two are quite modest. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050506d.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate in Canada has continued its declining trend begun in late 2003. The 6.8% in April is the lowest since the same level in December 2000. While this might suggest recent strength in the Canadian labor market, optimism must be tempered by the fact that employment growth has been slower. In fact, the inroads on the reported unemployment rate come from lower labor force participation. While employers are adding new jobs at a slower pace, people are pulling back somewhat from wanting jobs in the first place. This is reflected in the reduction in the participation rate by 0.4% from its 2004 average of 78.2% of the working-age population to 77.8% in April. Had participation remained at that level, calculations indicate that the labor force would have been nearly 80,000 larger in April and the resulting unemployment rate would not have declined.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CANSIM/CANSIM.HTM">Canada</a></th>
Mo/Mo Change, 000s
<th scope="col">Yr/Yr % Apr 2005 </th>
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Apr 2005</td>
<td>Mar 2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment*</td>
<td>29.3</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Goods - Producing* </td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Service - Producing*</td>
<td>28.9</td>
<td>-6.3</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Labor Force**</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-8.2</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate**</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>Apr 2004</td>
<td colspan="3">Annual Average</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">7.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate**</td>
<td>77.8%</td>
<td>78.0%</td>
<td>78.3%</td>
<td>78.2%</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>77.4%</td>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505e.jpg" width="353">
The Australian trade deficit widened distinctly in March. The A$2.7 billion gap, reported today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the second largest monthly shortfall ever. In this latest month, both exports and imports moved adversely, with exports down 1.5% and imports up 3.3% from February.
At the same time, longer comparisons suggest that March&#39;s trade deficit widening, and the dip in exports in particular, is perhaps not representative of current trends. Exports, in fact, have expanded 12.4% over the past year, encompassing a 17.6% advance in &quot;non-rural goods&quot; shipments. These products appear quite vigorous, recovering markedly from a decline during 2003. Agricultural items, in contrast, have undergone extraordinarily wide cycles in the last several years, and have become less reliable as a prop to the Australian economy.
Imports, as in many countries, are being impacted by the rising cost of energy products, reflected here in the &quot;intermediate goods&quot; line item. Consumers continue to buy foreign products, while demand for capital goods from abroad is beginning to show signs of hesitation. This latter is notable, for, as seen in the second graph, imports of capital goods closely parallel the national accounts measure of investment in machinery and equipment. So the downturn in these imports in the opening months of 2005 may suggest slower investment demand in general in Australia.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505d.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A1.HTM">Australia</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Goods &amp; Services </td>
<td>-2,672</td>
<td>-2,238</td>
<td>-2,098</td>
<td>-25,434</td>
<td>-23,749</td>
<td>-10,325</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports of Goods</td>
<td>10,151</td>
<td>10,302</td>
<td>8,870</td>
<td>118,427</td>
<td>108,321</td>
<td>119,478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rural Goods</td>
<td>1,904</td>
<td>2,075</td>
<td>2,003</td>
<td>26,925</td>
<td>22,357</td>
<td>28,866</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-rural Goods</td>
<td>8,247</td>
<td>8,227</td>
<td>6,867</td>
<td>91,502</td>
<td>85,967</td>
<td>90,612</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports of Goods</td>
<td>12,910</td>
<td>12,501</td>
<td>10,921</td>
<td>142,739</td>
<td>131,656</td>
<td>129,468</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>4,070</td>
<td>4,054</td>
<td>3,579</td>
<td>45,304</td>
<td>41,397</td>
<td>39,931</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Capital Goods</td>
<td>2,838</td>
<td>2,949</td>
<td>2,599</td>
<td>34,417</td>
<td>31,032</td>
<td>303,79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate &amp; Other Goods</td>
<td>6,002</td>
<td>5,499</td>
<td>4,743</td>
<td>63,018</td>
<td>59,227</td>
<td>59,158</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Australian trade deficit widened distinctly in March. The A$2.7 billion gap, reported today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the second largest monthly shortfall ever. In this latest month, both exports and imports moved [...]

Australian Trade Deficit Wider in March

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose further last week. The 11,000 increase to 333,000 followed an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims nevertheless fell to 321,500 (-6.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance gained back 38,000 of a deepened 80,000 drop the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>333</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,589</td>
<td>-11.7%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose further last week. The 11,000 increase to 333,000 followed an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims. During the last ten years [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Higher Again

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In 1Q05, non-farm labor productivity rose 2.6% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.9% gain. The gain was the quickest in three quarters yet growth year to year slowed to 2.5% from its peak of 5.5% early last year.
The surprise stemmed from a slowdown in hours worked to 1.0% (1.4% y/y) versus 1.6% in 4Q and 2.8% growth in 3Q04. Output growth of 3.6% compared to 5.3% during all of 2004.
Unit labor costs accelerated to 2.2% versus annual growth of 0.4% last year. Compensation costs held steady at a strong 4.8% versus 4.5% growth during 2004.
A 2.9% rise in the implicit price deflator raised slightly the ratio of prices to unit labor costs, suggesting that profit margins remained firm.
Does Wage Inflation Cause Price Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/PolicyDis/pd1.pdf"> here</a>. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505a.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505b.jpg" width="353">

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EC/@EC02/@EC02.HTM">Non-farm Business Sector</a> (SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Output per Hour</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Labor Costs</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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In 1Q05, non-farm labor productivity rose 2.6% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.9% gain. The gain was the quickest in three quarters yet growth year to year slowed to 2.5% from its peak of 5.5% early last year. The surprise [...]

U.S. Productivity Slightly Higher Than Expected

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In 1Q05, non-farm labor productivity rose 2.6% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.9% gain. The gain was the quickest in three quarters yet growth year to year slowed to 2.5% from its peak of 5.5% early last year.
The surprise stemmed from a slowdown in hours worked to 1.0% (1.4% y/y) versus 1.6% in 4Q and 2.8% growth in 3Q04. Output growth of 3.6% compared to 5.3% during all of 2004.
Unit labor costs accelerated to 2.2% versus annual growth of 0.4% last year. Compensation costs held steady at a strong 4.8% versus 4.5% growth during 2004.
A 2.9% rise in the implicit price deflator raised slightly the ratio of prices to unit labor costs, suggesting that profit margins remained firm.
Does Wage Inflation Cause Price Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/PolicyDis/pd1.pdf"> here</a>. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505a.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505b.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EC/@EC02/@EC02.HTM">Non-farm Business Sector</a> (SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Output per Hour</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Labor Costs</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Higher Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 5, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose further last week. The 11,000 increase to 333,000 followed an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims nevertheless fell to 321,500 (-6.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance gained back 38,000 of a deepened 80,000 drop the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>333</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,589</td>
<td>-11.7%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Australian Trade Deficit Wider in March 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 5, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505e.jpg" width="353">
The Australian trade deficit widened distinctly in March. The A$2.7 billion gap, reported today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the second largest monthly shortfall ever. In this latest month, both exports and imports moved adversely, with exports down 1.5% and imports up 3.3% from February.
At the same time, longer comparisons suggest that March&#39;s trade deficit widening, and the dip in exports in particular, is perhaps not representative of current trends. Exports, in fact, have expanded 12.4% over the past year, encompassing a 17.6% advance in &quot;non-rural goods&quot; shipments. These products appear quite vigorous, recovering markedly from a decline during 2003. Agricultural items, in contrast, have undergone extraordinarily wide cycles in the last several years, and have become less reliable as a prop to the Australian economy.
Imports, as in many countries, are being impacted by the rising cost of energy products, reflected here in the &quot;intermediate goods&quot; line item. Consumers continue to buy foreign products, while demand for capital goods from abroad is beginning to show signs of hesitation. This latter is notable, for, as seen in the second graph, imports of capital goods closely parallel the national accounts measure of investment in machinery and equipment. So the downturn in these imports in the opening months of 2005 may suggest slower investment demand in general in Australia.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050505d.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A1.HTM">Australia</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Goods &amp; Services </td>
<td>-2,672</td>
<td>-2,238</td>
<td>-2,098</td>
<td>-25,434</td>
<td>-23,749</td>
<td>-10,325</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports of Goods</td>
<td>10,151</td>
<td>10,302</td>
<td>8,870</td>
<td>118,427</td>
<td>108,321</td>
<td>119,478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rural Goods</td>
<td>1,904</td>
<td>2,075</td>
<td>2,003</td>
<td>26,925</td>
<td>22,357</td>
<td>28,866</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-rural Goods</td>
<td>8,247</td>
<td>8,227</td>
<td>6,867</td>
<td>91,502</td>
<td>85,967</td>
<td>90,612</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports of Goods</td>
<td>12,910</td>
<td>12,501</td>
<td>10,921</td>
<td>142,739</td>
<td>131,656</td>
<td>129,468</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>4,070</td>
<td>4,054</td>
<td>3,579</td>
<td>45,304</td>
<td>41,397</td>
<td>39,931</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Capital Goods</td>
<td>2,838</td>
<td>2,949</td>
<td>2,599</td>
<td>34,417</td>
<td>31,032</td>
<td>303,79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate &amp; Other Goods</td>
<td>6,002</td>
<td>5,499</td>
<td>4,743</td>
<td>63,018</td>
<td>59,227</td>
<td>59,158</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050504e.jpg" width="353">
Business activity in European service industries maintained a stable rate of modest expansion in April, according to the purchasing manager surveys conducted by NTC Research and reported today by Reuters, Inc.
The overall services business activity index registered 52.76, off just slightly from March&#39;s 52.99. This index, a &quot;net balance&quot; indicator (% rising - % falling) has hovered around 53 for the last six months after slowing pretty consistently over the previous year. It had reached a peak of 57.5 in November 2003. Among the associated measures, new business and outstanding business both resemble the pattern in the &quot;business activity&quot; gauge, while employment has actually had a slight firming tendency over this general 18-month period.
An interesting facet of the European-wide information is an apparent worsening of profit margins. The index for prices charged narrowed by 1.9 points and fell below 50, showing that selling prices rose at fewer companies than they fell. But input prices increased on balance, from 57.72 to 57.98. This is not unusually high for this measure, but it does suggest that operating costs are exerting some pressure on these service producers. After five months of relative improvement in margins, in a single month this spread between selling prices and input prices lost some 45% of that improvement. The input prices, not surprisingly, are strongly influenced by import prices and other wholesale prices. In fact, correlation ratios between this services input price index and various price indicators, including the Euro-Zone import price index, producer price index and producer price index for energy, all run in a range of 80-90%. So rising energy prices as well as prices of other materials are weighing on service sector performance at the same time that these firms are unable to sustain rising selling prices to customers.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050504f.jpg" width="353">
Among various countries, recent business activity performances have differed. As seen in the table below, Germany&#39;s business activity index fell by about half-a-point in April, while that in France rose more than 3 points. The Italian index was off 4.34 points and in fact, with a reading below 50, showed an outright contraction in its service sector.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">PMI for Service Sector</th>
<th scope="col">April 2005</th>
<th scope="col">March 2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-Zone*</td>
<td>52.76</td>
<td>52.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>51.32</td>
<td>51.80</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>57.69</td>
<td>55.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>48.35</td>
<td>52.69</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Business activity in European service industries maintained a stable rate of modest expansion in April, according to the purchasing manager surveys conducted by NTC Research and reported today by Reuters, Inc. The overall services [...]

Euro-Zone Service Sector PMI Moves Narrowly in April, Maintaining Modest Growth

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050504c.jpg" width="353">
Total mortgage applications ticked up 0.2% last week but the change left the average level in April down 0.9% from March and down a third from last year&#39;s peak level, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Applications to purchase a home were about unchanged w/w. Still, the April average rose 2.7% from March which rose 6.1% from February. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance ticked 0.4% higher and the average in April fell 5.5% from March which fell 16.1% from February.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.98% from 6.01%, the lowest level since early March. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.62%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/29/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>714.1</td>
<td>712.4</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>482.5</td>
<td>482.0</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,061.2</td>
<td>2,052.5</td>
<td>-18.1%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total mortgage applications ticked up 0.2% last week but the change left the average level in April down 0.9% from March and down a third from last year's peak level, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to [...]

Mortgage Applications Lower Again in April

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) in March grew to $140.5 billion after narrowing slightly to $123.2 billion in February, revised from $122.7 billion, after widening to $130.7 billion in January according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $136.7 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y) in March after increasing 2.8% in February. This was accompanied by a 4.4% rise (27.1% y/y) rise in imports which came after m/m stability in February. In Q1’25, the deficit grew to an average $131.4 billion, after rising to an average $83.3 billion in Q4’24.

The trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) widened to a record $163.2 billion in March from $147.9	 billion in February, revised from $147.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.4% (7.0% y/y) in March, after increasing 3.6% in February. The latest increase reflected an 8.2% (8.4% y/y) surge in auto exports which came after a 12.7% strengthening. A 3.5% (4.0% y/y) gain occurred in industrial supplies & materials exports which followed a 5.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage exports rose 6.6% (1.4% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five month. Working lower, capital goods exports fell 2.5% (+13.9% y/y) in March after a 4.	8% increase and nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.1% (+3.4% y/y) in March after a 2.4% gain.

Imports of goods increased 5.5% (31.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% February easing. Imports of nonauto consumer goods imports surged 27.9% (56.0% y/y) following a 3.1% February gain. Auto imports rose 6.6% (8.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Capital goods imports rose 4.2% (22.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+11.1% y/y) following a 2.0% weakening. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 12.4% (+39.5% y/y) after weakening 4.6% in February. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 4.1% (-10.2% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nonpetroleum imports increased 6.0% (34.8% y/y) after holding steady in February.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) deepened to $150.9 billion in March from $136.9 billion in February. Real exports rose 1.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 3.0% February increase, while real imports rose 5.8% (29.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% February slip.

The services trade surplus narrowed to $23.0 billion in March after decreasing to $23.8 billion in February. It reached a peak of $25.7 billion in November of last year. Service exports fell 0.9% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in February. Construction services exports rose 1.0% (37.7% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in February. Travel services exports fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) and financial exports increased 0.9% (7.3% y/y). Transport exports rose 3.1% (2.4% y/y). Service imports eased 0.1% (+10.8% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain. Maintenance & repair services declined 1.5% (+32.1% y/y) while imported transport services increased 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Imported travel services fell 2.2% (5.3% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 1.0% (13.6 y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $24.8 billion in March from $26.6 billion in February. Exports to China declined 8.2% (-10.5% y/y) while imports weakened 7.2% (-2.7% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to a record $48.3 billion in March from $30.9 billion in February. Exports rose 10.9% (14.5% y/y) while imports soared 34.0% (65.4% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to $5.8 billion from $5.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.8% (8.8% y/y) and imports rose 6.4% (9.9% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades improved to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.1% y/y) in the week ended May 5 and reversed the prior week’s easing to $3.26. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eaed to $3.50 per gallon (-10.2% y/y) in the week of May 5 from $3.51 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $59.64 per barrel (-26.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after rising to $63.09 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $57.13 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $63.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week of May 2 from $67.92 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices improved to an average $3.09 per mmbtu (+88.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after falling to $3.00/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.26/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 following a 0.4% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 0.4% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.1% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories slipped 0.7% y/y in the week ending April 25 after a 1.2% y/y rise in the week ending April 18. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.7% y/y in the week of April 25, after a 19.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of April 25 after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.5 days in the week of April 25 from 26.4 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.9 days in the week of April 25 after three weeks at 28.3 days, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Not many respondents are showing absolute slowing. Only five this month. Only six over the last three months on average. The median total PMI score fell to 49.7 showing contraction in April from 51.1 in March. The average fared slightly better. The 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show a moderate but consistent slowing. The breadth of slowing is wide with 60.9% of survey respondents slowing over three months compared to six months.

The percentile standings show the most strength for the BRIC group with reading above 50% (that marks the median). All other groupings have standings below the 50% mark indicating that they are below their respective medians of the last four-plus years.

Over every horizon from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, more than 50% of the respondents show a weakening (slowing) in their PMI responses.

Among the largest economies, only Italy has a composite PMI standing above its median (above 50%).

Only 9 of 24 respondents have PMI ranked percentile standings above the 50% mark. That underlines the weakness in composite conditions and the breadth of the weakness.
 
Services sectors no longer are providing the lift to offset ongoing weakness in manufacturing. The differences among countries are narrowing.

Economic conditions across countries may be narrowing for several reasons, one being that the COVID period and then the shock reaction to Russia's invasion from Ukraine put all countries on the same timeline as central banks have been leaning against the shockwaves from those 2 events. As a result of those events, inflation flared but has more recently been falling. Still, inflation continues to be over the top of targets with the European Monetary Union right now making the most progress and Japan facing more late cycle weakness with excessive inflation than other countries in the mix. More recently aggressive tariff policy the United States has put all countries on their back foot and puts everyone on notice that the future has become a lot more uncertain. Central banks that were progressing toward rate cuts now are worried about the possibility of more inflation from tariffs or from the possibility of recession from tariffs - tariffs up the ante on uncertainty as well as on risk. What we see in this month's PMI statistics is a gradual continued erosion as the perceived risk here is that things get steadily but slowly worse as firms, investors, and consumers began to pull in their horns and prepare for something bad to happen not knowing what that might be.

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Global Composite PMIs Erode

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on trade developments between the US and major Asian economies. Early indications coming out of US-India trade talks seem encouraging, with terms such as “forward most-favoured-nation” for the US and “zero-for-zero” tariffs appearing in news reports — terms which, if enacted, would represent a significant win for the US. India stands to benefit greatly as well if key exports to the US, such as pharmaceuticals (chart 1), receive substantial tariff relief. The benefits could be strongly mutual if a deal also grants the US greater access to India’s large auto consumer market, particularly for major US electric vehicle (EV) producers, given that EV adoption in India remains at a very early stage (chart 2).

Turning to South Korea, discussions also appear to be progressing at a healthy pace, although details remain limited and ongoing domestic political challenges continue to hinder substantive breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the South Korean won has shown signs of stabilisation, while local equity markets have remained buoyant (chart 3). Recent trade data for April has also provided some investor relief, as weak exports to the US were more than offset by a strong performance in semiconductor shipments (chart 4).

In Japan, the race to secure a trade deal with the US is well underway, with automotive exports expected to be a key focal point given their significance to Japan’s economy and the US being a major export destination (chart 5). China, however, remains a notable outlier, with formal trade talks with the US not yet underway. Still, the US-China trade relationship continues to be the most closely watched, given its scale and potential impact on global growth and trade dynamics. While markets await China’s official April trade data, early indicators such as port activity already suggest a decline in bilateral trade flows (chart 6).

**US-India trade talks**
US-India trade discussions have reportedly been progressing rapidly, with both sides having already finalized in April the terms of reference for talks, setting the stage for formal negotiations. One early sign of favourable momentum is India’s possible offering of a “forward most-favoured-nation” clause to the US. This would ensure the US always receives the most favourable tariff terms, ahead of any other trade partner. If enacted, this would be a significant win for the US and a major leap forward in the US-India trade relationship. Another reported breakthrough involves India’s reported proposal of “zero-for-zero” tariffs on steel, auto components, and pharmaceuticals—offered on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity. If agreed, this would be mutually beneficial, especially as pharmaceuticals remain one of the US economy’s key imports from India, as shown in chart 1. On a separate note, and more recently, India’s phone exports to the US have reportedly gained prominence. With steep US tariffs on China, firms like Apple are increasingly incentivised to accelerate production shifts to India.

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Additionally, India’s proposed “zero-for-zero” tariff plan for auto parts may galvanise US access to India’s large domestic auto market, which has remained comparatively insulated due to high import tariffs. Another area to watch in the trade talks is electric vehicle (EV) imports, especially given US EV giant Tesla’s continued interest in expanding into the Indian market. That said, EV adoption in India remains in its early stages by many measures. While India has an immense middle class with future sales potential, EVs accounted for only about 2% of new cars sold in 2023, as shown in chart 2. This is well below levels seen in other Asian economies like China, or leaders in this space like Norway, where nearly all new cars sold are EVs. Challenges remain in unlocking the domestic Indian market—particularly around affordability and the underdeveloped state of EV infrastructure.

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**US-South Korea trade talks**
Discussions on the US-South Korea trade front also appear to be progressing at a steady pace, with technical talks reportedly having concluded in Washington last week. However, details remain limited, and full-scale negotiations have not yet begun. Complicating matters is South Korea’s domestic political landscape. With the country heading into a snap presidential election on June 3, Vice Industry Minister Park has said there is no chance of a comprehensive deal being reached before then. Still, both sides have committed to working toward an agreement before the expiration of Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on July 8. In financial markets, the won continues to swing but remains above its year-to-date lows (chart 3). Meanwhile, South Korean equities have been lifted by a softening in trade rhetoric from both the US and China, as well as optimism around the US-South Korea talks.

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Turning to the hard trade data, South Korea’s more complete April numbers offered some initial relief to investors. The economy still managed to post moderate export growth, surprising many, despite a nearly 7% y/y decline in exports to the US, as shown in chart 4. One of the key drivers was semiconductors, which recorded double-digit y/y growth for the second consecutive month. However, these figures likely do not yet reflect the full initial impact of the steep mutual tariffs between the US and China. Firmer indications may emerge in the coming months. By then, though, attention will likely have shifted toward the outcome of US trade talks with key partners, as the end of its 90-day reciprocal tariff pause draws near.

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**US-Japan trade talks**
Turning to Japan, there is a sense of cautious optimism, with Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa expressing hope for a US-Japan trade deal by June, following the second and most recent round of talks held in Washington last week. A key point of interest is whether Japan can negotiate an exemption from the current 25% automotive tariffs imposed by the US. This is especially significant given the importance of the US as a destination for Japanese auto exports, as shown in chart 5, and the central role the sector plays in Japan’s broader manufacturing economy. Also worth noting is a recent clarification by Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, who walked back earlier remarks and stated that Japan will not use the sale of US Treasuries as a bargaining tool. The clarification may help defuse a potential point of friction between the two sides as trade discussions continue.

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**US-China trade developments**
Turning to US-China trade developments — while progress here has lagged, this relationship remains the most closely watched, given its potentially large impact if meaningful movement occurs. Recent messaging from both sides has softened, stepping back from the fiery exchanges and tariff escalations seen earlier in April, offering some interim relief for investors. China has reportedly exempted certain US imports from tariffs, including specific pharmaceutical and industrial chemical products. However, on US-China trade talks, they remain at a very early stage, with China merely “evaluating” the prospect of negotiations with the US. This suggests we are still far from anything resembling a formal deal. Investors are now closely watching for first-round effects of US tariffs, which are expected to appear in China’s April trade numbers due later this week. Early signs point to a slowdown. For example, vessel traffic at the Los Angeles–Long Beach port remains at range lows, hinting at reduced shipments from China.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Art of the Deal

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 during April, after falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management. The reading indicated service sector expansion for the tenth consecutive month, although the rate of expansion has slowed significantly. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 50.2 for April.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing index released on Thursday. This index rose to 51.2 in Apri from 50.6 in March. The latest figure remains above its June low of 49.1.

Amongst the services component series, the employment index led last month’s improvement in the overall index. It rose to 49.0 after falling sharply to 46.2 in March. Higher employment was reported by a slightly improved 14.6% (NSA) of respondents while a lessened 16.4% reported a decline. The new orders index rose to 52.3 after falling to 50.4 in March. A higher 22.4% (NSA) of respondents reported a rise in orders while a lessened 15.3% reported a decline. Reporting slower delivery speeds, the supplier delivery series edged up to 51.3 in April after falling to 50.6 in March. Working lower, the business activity series declined to 53.7 after rising to 55.9 in March. A higher 26.2% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a lessened 14.0% reported deterioration.

On the inflation front, the prices index surged to 68.9 in April after easing to 62.8 in March. A greatly increased 39.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 1.9% reported lower prices. The index was increased from its December 2022 low 53.1 and stood at its highest level since October 2022.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 48.6 (NSA) in April following a decline to 45.8 in March from 52.1 in February. Just 14.8% of survey respondents reported higher exports while an increased 17.7% reported a decline. The imports index plummeted to 44.3 last month from 52.6 in March. A greatly lessened 4.7% of respondents reported higher imports while a doubled 16.2% reported a decline. The inventory change index jumped to 53.4, a six-month high. The order backlog index edged up to 48.0 in April after falling sharply to 47.4 in March. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher backlogs while a fewer 16.2% reported a decline. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests	 contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens. 
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.

Economy in Brief: May 2005

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