Global| May 05 2005Australian Trade Deficit Wider in March
Summary
The Australian trade deficit widened distinctly in March. The A$2.7 billion gap, reported today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the second largest monthly shortfall ever. In this latest month, both exports and imports moved [...]
The Australian trade deficit widened distinctly in March. The A$2.7 billion gap, reported today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the second largest monthly shortfall ever. In this latest month, both exports and imports moved adversely, with exports down 1.5% and imports up 3.3% from February.
At the same time, longer comparisons suggest that March's trade deficit widening, and the dip in exports in particular, is perhaps not representative of current trends. Exports, in fact, have expanded 12.4% over the past year, encompassing a 17.6% advance in "non-rural goods" shipments. These products appear quite vigorous, recovering markedly from a decline during 2003. Agricultural items, in contrast, have undergone extraordinarily wide cycles in the last several years, and have become less reliable as a prop to the Australian economy.
Imports, as in many countries, are being impacted by the rising cost of energy products, reflected here in the "intermediate goods" line item. Consumers continue to buy foreign products, while demand for capital goods from abroad is beginning to show signs of hesitation. This latter is notable, for, as seen in the second graph, imports of capital goods closely parallel the national accounts measure of investment in machinery and equipment. So the downturn in these imports in the opening months of 2005 may suggest slower investment demand in general in Australia.
| Australia | Mar 2005 | Feb 2005 | Year Ago | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on Goods & Services | -2,672 | -2,238 | -2,098 | -25,434 | -23,749 | -10,325 |
| Exports of Goods | 10,151 | 10,302 | 8,870 | 118,427 | 108,321 | 119,478 |
| Rural Goods | 1,904 | 2,075 | 2,003 | 26,925 | 22,357 | 28,866 |
| Non-rural Goods | 8,247 | 8,227 | 6,867 | 91,502 | 85,967 | 90,612 |
| Imports of Goods | 12,910 | 12,501 | 10,921 | 142,739 | 131,656 | 129,468 |
| Consumer Goods | 4,070 | 4,054 | 3,579 | 45,304 | 41,397 | 39,931 |
| Capital Goods | 2,838 | 2,949 | 2,599 | 34,417 | 31,032 | 303,79 |
| Intermediate & Other Goods | 6,002 | 5,499 | 4,743 | 63,018 | 59,227 | 59,158 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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