Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104k.jpg" width="353">
In an anticipated and unanimous vote, the Federal Open Market Committee today left the Federal funds rate in a &quot;range from 0 to 1/4 percent.&quot; The discount rate also was left unchanged at 0.5%. The action was as expected and left the Fed funds rate at its lowest level ever.
Citing economic improvement, the Fed stated that &quot;Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.&quot;<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104l.jpg" width="353">
Continued strengthening of economic activity in a &quot;context of price stability&quot; was anticipated.
Regarding inflation the FOMC statement again indicated that &quot;With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.&quot;<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104m.jpg" width="353">
In its effort to promote economic liquidity, the Fed used similar language as during the last meeting. &quot;... the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
A complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20091104a.htm">here</a>.
The Haver databases USECON, WEEKLY and DAILY contain the figures from the Federal Reserve Board.
The Determinants of International Flows of U.S. Currency from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr400.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Current</th>
<th scope="col">Last</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Federal Funds Rate, % (Target)</td>
<td>0.00 - 0.25</td>
<td>0.00 - 0.25</td>
<td>0.16</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>5.02</td>
<td>4.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Discount Rate, %</td>
<td>0.50</td>
<td>0.50</td>
<td>0.50</td>
<td>2.39</td>
<td>5.86</td>
<td>5.96</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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In an anticipated and unanimous vote, the Federal Open Market Committee today left the Federal funds rate in a "range from 0 to 1/4 percent." The discount rate also was left unchanged at 0.5%. The action was as expected and left the [...]

FOMC Cites Economic Improvement But Leaves Rates Unchanged

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104j.jpg" width="353">
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas indicated that job cut announcements fell further last month to a new current cycle low. Layoffs dropped to 55,679, compared to a high of 241,748 cuts in January of this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Layoffs have moderated sharply in the chemical, consumer goods, financial, health care, media and telecommunication industries. They picked up modestly in the computer and entertainment/leisure industries.
The Challenger figures are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM" style="color:#000000">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>55,679</td>
<td>66,404</td>
<td>-50.7%</td>
<td>1,223,993</td>
<td>768,264</td>
<td>839,822</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas indicated that job cut announcements fell further last month to a new current cycle low. Layoffs dropped to 55,679, compared to a high of 241,748 cuts in January of this year. [...]

Challenger Layoffs Moderate Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104g.jpg" width="353">
Improvement in service sector activity continued to be evident in the latest purchasing report. Though the October Composite Index for the nonmanufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) ticked slightly lower to 50.6, it still was nearly its highest level since May of last year. The latest figure roughly equaled Consensus expectations. A level of the ISM index above 50 indicates rising overall service sector activity. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the composite index in the nonmanufacturing sector and the Q/Q change in real GDP for the services and the construction sectors.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104h.jpg" width="353">
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates back to July 1997. The figures are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database.
Amongst the components, there was broad-based improvement tempered by a lower employment reading. The business activity index for the service sector remained above the break-even level of 50 for the third month. The new orders series also remained at its highest in two years, up from November&#39;s low of 35.6. The speed of vendor deliveries fell further (higher index level) to its slowest since January. Only the employment index deteriorated, falling to its lowest level since May. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been an 80% correlation between the level of the ISM nonmanufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service-producing plus the construction industries.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104i.jpg" width="353">
Pricing power improved as the overall index moved back above 50. The pricing index ticked just slightly higher m/m to 53.0 but was up sharply from the December low of 36.1. Since its inception ten years ago, there has been a 73% correlation between the price index and the q/q change in the GDP services chain price index.
Beginning with the January 2008 Nonmanufacturing <cite>Report On Business</cite>&reg;, the composite index is calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. It is a composite index based on the diffusion indices of four of the indicators (business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries) with equal weights. The latest report from the ISM can be found <a href="http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm">here.</a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM" style="color:#000000">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Oct. &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>50.6</td>
<td>50.9</td>
<td>48.4</td>
<td>44.6</td>
<td>47.4</td>
<td>53.5</td>
<td>55.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Business Activity</td>
<td>55.2</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>51.3</td>
<td>44.5</td>
<td>47.4</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>58.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>55.6</td>
<td>54.2</td>
<td>49.9</td>
<td>44.3</td>
<td>47.0</td>
<td>54.8</td>
<td>57.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Employment</td>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>44.3</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>41.7</td>
<td>43.8</td>
<td>52.0</td>
<td>53.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Supplier Deliveries</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>49.0</td>
<td>48.0</td>
<td>51.1</td>
<td>51.1</td>
<td>53.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>53.0</td>
<td>48.8</td>
<td>63.1</td>
<td>53.3</td>
<td>66.0</td>
<td>63.8</td>
<td>65.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Improvement in service sector activity continued to be evident in the latest purchasing report. Though the October Composite Index for the nonmanufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) ticked slightly lower to [...]

U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Ticks Lower But Stays Near May '08 High

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104f.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The EMU services PMI rose for the fourth month in a row. The
services index is above the 50 mark for the second month running. The
services PMI is on a tear as it is surging up at least as fast as it
had dropped in the recession. So far so good. Still it has not restored
the pre-recession level of the services index. It remains pure
speculation as to how fast or soon it will recoup its pre-recession
level.
The Markit PMI readings are higher and stronger in their
ranges than are their counterpart indices from the European Commission.
The EMU index from Markit for the service sector is in the 59th
percentile of its range since May of 2000. Over the same period the EU
Commission services index is in its 31st percentile about half as
strong in relative terms.
The same sort of shortfalls exist across countries
In the Markit framework all the largest countries&#8217; services
sectors score above the 50 (neutral) mark except Spain whose index
still lags at 47.7. But in percentile of range terms it is Germany that
is lagging and stands below the mid-point mark. Germany is doing well
in absolute terms but it is not doing well relative to its past
performance.
On balance the rise in the services sector is sharp and still
seems to carry good upward momentum. This month among the larger
countries only Germany backtracked. In the EU the UK&#8217;s reading is up to
56.9 and stands in the 82nd percentile (top 18%) of its range. The
recovery across Europe is taking hold in the key services sector where
most of the jobs are. It&#8217;s good news. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="" col="">Markit
Services Indices for EU/EMU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-Area</td>
<td>52.58</td>
<td>50.86</td>
<td>49.92</td>
<td>51.12</td>
<td>48.09</td>
<td>44.93</td>
<td>59.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>50.73</td>
<td>52.06</td>
<td>53.82</td>
<td>52.20</td>
<td>49.18</td>
<td>46.61</td>
<td>47.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>57.71</td>
<td>53.16</td>
<td>49.30</td>
<td>53.39</td>
<td>50.20</td>
<td>46.74</td>
<td>69.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>52.20</td>
<td>48.53</td>
<td>46.42</td>
<td>49.05</td>
<td>46.18</td>
<td>43.08</td>
<td>57.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>47.74</td>
<td>46.39</td>
<td>45.34</td>
<td>46.49</td>
<td>43.44</td>
<td>38.41</td>
<td>59.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Ireland</td>
<td>47.37</td>
<td>45.46</td>
<td>46.71</td>
<td>46.51</td>
<td>43.95</td>
<td>38.67</td>
<td>42.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">EU only</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">UK (CIPs)</td>
<td>56.90</td>
<td>55.30</td>
<td>54.07</td>
<td>55.42</td>
<td>53.81</td>
<td>48.58</td>
<td>82.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">EU Commission Indices for
EU and EMU</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">EU Index</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">EU Services</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-19.67</td>
<td>-22.50</td>
<td>-26.75</td>
<td>43.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">EMU</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-9.00</td>
<td>-14.67</td>
<td>-19.67</td>
<td>31.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Cons Confidence</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-19.67</td>
<td>-22.50</td>
<td>-22.03</td>
<td>43.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Consumer confidence by
country</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany-Ccon</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>-23</td>
<td>-19.33</td>
<td>-24.17</td>
<td>-25.67</td>
<td>39.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France-Ccon</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-24</td>
<td>-32</td>
<td>-25.67</td>
<td>-27.50</td>
<td>-31.00</td>
<td>40.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Ital-Ccon</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>-16.33</td>
<td>-18.33</td>
<td>-23.17</td>
<td>40.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">UK-Ccon</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-11.33</td>
<td>-14.83</td>
<td>-21.67</td>
<td>71.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">percentile is over range since May
2000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The EMU services PMI rose for the fourth month in a row. The services index is above the 50 mark for the second month running. The services PMI is on a tear as it is surging up at least as fast as it had dropped in the recession. So [...]

Service Sector In Europe Continues To Dig Out

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Payroll
employment fell again last month, but the rate of decline recently has
eased. The latest report from the payroll processor ADP, in their
National Employment Report, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls
fell 203,000 during October after a revised 227,000 September decline
which was shallower than reported initially. The latest reading was the
twenty-first consecutive monthly decline. The monthly change, however,
was the smallest since July of last year and two-thirds the size of the
worst reading last March. The three-month annualized rate of decline in
payrolls also eased to 2.5% from its March record of 7.1%.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
ADP compiled the estimate from its
database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic
Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the
methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic
indicator.The
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report October payroll employment
this Friday. For comparison, the
September decline of 227,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm
payrolls was accompanied by a loss of 210,000 jobs in the BLS measure
of private sector payrolls.
According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the
monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data
is 0.90.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
 ADP reported
that the decline in small-sized payrolls moderated to 75,000 (-4.3%).
That matched the 75,000 (-5.5% y/y) decline in medium-sized payrolls.
Large payrolls fell by 53,000 (-5.6% y/y). The steady decline in
service-producing industry employment continued. The October drop of
86,000 (-3.1% y/y), was the twentieth consecutive monthly decline but
in percentage terms the three-month rate of change moderated to -1.3%,
less than two-thirds the worst from December through March. The decline
in medium-sized service payrolls moderated to 30,000 (-3.4% y/y) and
small-sized payrolls declined 34,000 (-2.8% y/y). Large service
producing payrolls dropped by 22,000 and the y/y decline held steady at
3.4%.In the goods
producing sector employment fell 117,000 in October (-13.2% y/y). Here,
the three-month rate of decline eased again but only to -8.4% versus
-17.3% at its worst. Small-sized payrolls fell 41,000 (-12.9% y/y)
followed by a 45,000 (-13.3% y/y) drop in medium-sized payrolls. Large
payrolls fell 31,000 (-13.4% y/y). In the manufacturing sector alone,
payrolls fell 65,000 (-12.5% y/y).The
ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON
database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in
this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in
the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve
months. The full ADP
National Employment Report can be found <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_October_09.pdf">here</a>p
pand the ADP methodology is
explained <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf" title="blocked::http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf">here</a>.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB25/@EB25.HTM">LAXEPA@USECON</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Nonfarm Private Payroll
Employment (m/m Chg., 000s)</td>
<td>-203</td>
<td>-227</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Small
Payroll (1-49)</td>
<td>-75</td>
<td>-90</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Medium
Payroll (50-499)</td>
<td>-75</td>
<td>-81</td>
<td>-5.5</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Large
Payroll (&gt;500)</td>
<td>-53</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Payroll employment fell again last month, but the rate of decline recently has eased. The latest report from the payroll processor ADP, in their National Employment Report, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls fell 203,000 during [...]

ADP Report: Payroll Employment Decline Continues But The Pace Moderates

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104a.jpg" width="353">
U.S. unit sales of light vehicles during October recovered from the &quot;payback&quot; month of September following the summer&#39;s &quot;cash-for-clunkers&quot; sales program. Sales rose 13.5% m/m to 10.46M units according to the Autodata Corporation. (Seasonal adjustment of the figures is provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). October sales were stronger than the expected 9.8M sales rate.
Sales of domestically made vehicles rose 17.2% to 7.75M units after their one-third m/m September drop. Despite the gain, sales remained 0.7% lower than October 2007. Sales of fuel efficient cars rose 11.9% following their more than one-third September decline. Light truck sales reversed most of the September drop and rose 22.2% m/m. Total sales of domestic vehicles during this year&#39;s first 10 months were down 27.5% from last year&#39;s first ten months.
Imported light vehicles rebounded after the end of the sales program, but the increase was less than for domestic makes. Overall sales rose just 4.1% to 2.71M after September&#39;s 36.5% m/m drop. Sales of imported autos rose 5.2% after the one-third September drop while the gain in imported light truck sales amounted to just 1.6% after the more than one-third September drop. Year-to-date, sales of imported vehicles remained 20.0% below last year&#39;s first ten month&#39;s average.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091104b.jpg" width="353">
Overall, import&#39;s share of the U.S. light vehicle market fell to 25.9% last month from 28.2% in September. It reached 26.5% during all of last year. (Imported vehicles are those produced outside the United States.) Imports&#39; share of the U.S. car market totaled 33.9%, versus 34.3% last year while the share of the light truck market was 16.9%, down from 18.3% last year.
The U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver&#39;s USECON database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM&quot;" style="color: #000000">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Oct. Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>10.46</td>
<td>9.22</td>
<td>14.09</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>13.17</td>
<td>16.16</td>
<td>16.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>5.50</td>
<td>5.02</td>
<td>8.05</td>
<td>-3.7</td>
<td>6.71</td>
<td>7.58</td>
<td>7.77</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>5.26</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>4.42</td>
<td>5.07</td>
<td>5.31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imported</td>
<td>1.87</td>
<td>1.77</td>
<td>2.78</td>
<td>-8.4</td>
<td>2.29</td>
<td>2.52</td>
<td>2.45</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Light Trucks</td>
<td>4.96</td>
<td>4.20</td>
<td>6.05</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>6.47</td>
<td>8.60</td>
<td>8.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>4.12</td>
<td>3.37</td>
<td>4.75</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>5.29</td>
<td>7.10</td>
<td>7.42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imported</td>
<td>0.84</td>
<td>0.83</td>
<td>1.31</td>
<td>-13.9</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>1.37</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

U.S. unit sales of light vehicles during October recovered from the "payback" month of September following the summer's "cash-for-clunkers" sales program. Sales rose 13.5% m/m to 10.46M units according to the Autodata Corporation. [...]

U.S. Vehicle Sales Recover During October

U.S. Vehicle Sales Recover DuringOctober

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091103g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Brazilian industrial production increased 0.75% to 119.2
(2002=100) in September from 118.3 in August, a little short of
expectations, but still on the upward trend that began in January. The
three major marketing groups--capital goods, intermediate goods and
consumer goods--have all recovered from their falls in December as can
be seen in the first chart. The decline in capital goods was especially
severe and the recovery equally sharp.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091103h.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Industrial production is a good proxy for Brazilian GDP.
Brazil reports real GDP on an index basis with 1995=100. We rebased the
Industrial production index to 1995=100 and aggregated the monthly
figures to quarterly. The second chart compares this index with the
index of real GDP. The correlation between the two series is strong at
.97. In the third quarter, industrial production increased 4.1%. A 3.9%
increase in industrial production was associated with a 1.9% increase
in real GDP. If the relationship between industrial production and real
GDP holds, Brazil's real GDP should show another roughly 2% rise in GDP
in the third quarter.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">BRAZIL</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 09</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp;09</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 08</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production&nbsp;
(2002=100) as reported</td>
<td>109.2</td>
<td>118.3</td>
<td>129.7</td>
<td>0.75</td>
<td>-8.1</td>
<td>125.3</td>
<td>121.8</td>
<td>115.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production (1995=100)</td>
<td>136.2</td>
<td>135.2</td>
<td>148.3</td>
<td>0.75</td>
<td>-8.1</td>
<td>143.2</td>
<td>139.2</td>
<td>131.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Q3 09</td>
<td>Q2 09</td>
<td>Q1 09</td>
<td>Q4 08</td>
<td>Q3 08</td>
<td>Q2 08</td>
<td>Q1 08</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP (1995=100)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>145.3</td>
<td>142.7</td>
<td>146.0</td>
<td>149.0</td>
<td>147.1</td>
<td>144.9</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production (1995=100)</td>
<td>135.1</td>
<td>129.8</td>
<td>124.9</td>
<td>133.8</td>
<td>148.2</td>
<td>146.3</td>
<td>144.7</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Brazilian industrial production increased 0.75% to 119.2 (2002=100) in September from 118.3 in August, a little short of expectations, but still on the upward trend that began in January. The three major marketing groups--capital [...]

Brazil's Industrial Production Points To Good Third Quarter Growth In GDP

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) in March grew to $140.5 billion after narrowing slightly to $123.2 billion in February, revised from $122.7 billion, after widening to $130.7 billion in January according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $136.7 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y) in March after increasing 2.8% in February. This was accompanied by a 4.4% rise (27.1% y/y) rise in imports which came after m/m stability in February. In Q1’25, the deficit grew to an average $131.4 billion, after rising to an average $83.3 billion in Q4’24.

The trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) widened to a record $163.2 billion in March from $147.9	 billion in February, revised from $147.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.4% (7.0% y/y) in March, after increasing 3.6% in February. The latest increase reflected an 8.2% (8.4% y/y) surge in auto exports which came after a 12.7% strengthening. A 3.5% (4.0% y/y) gain occurred in industrial supplies & materials exports which followed a 5.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage exports rose 6.6% (1.4% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five month. Working lower, capital goods exports fell 2.5% (+13.9% y/y) in March after a 4.	8% increase and nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.1% (+3.4% y/y) in March after a 2.4% gain.

Imports of goods increased 5.5% (31.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% February easing. Imports of nonauto consumer goods imports surged 27.9% (56.0% y/y) following a 3.1% February gain. Auto imports rose 6.6% (8.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Capital goods imports rose 4.2% (22.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+11.1% y/y) following a 2.0% weakening. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 12.4% (+39.5% y/y) after weakening 4.6% in February. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 4.1% (-10.2% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nonpetroleum imports increased 6.0% (34.8% y/y) after holding steady in February.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) deepened to $150.9 billion in March from $136.9 billion in February. Real exports rose 1.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 3.0% February increase, while real imports rose 5.8% (29.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% February slip.

The services trade surplus narrowed to $23.0 billion in March after decreasing to $23.8 billion in February. It reached a peak of $25.7 billion in November of last year. Service exports fell 0.9% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in February. Construction services exports rose 1.0% (37.7% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in February. Travel services exports fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) and financial exports increased 0.9% (7.3% y/y). Transport exports rose 3.1% (2.4% y/y). Service imports eased 0.1% (+10.8% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain. Maintenance & repair services declined 1.5% (+32.1% y/y) while imported transport services increased 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Imported travel services fell 2.2% (5.3% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 1.0% (13.6 y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $24.8 billion in March from $26.6 billion in February. Exports to China declined 8.2% (-10.5% y/y) while imports weakened 7.2% (-2.7% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to a record $48.3 billion in March from $30.9 billion in February. Exports rose 10.9% (14.5% y/y) while imports soared 34.0% (65.4% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to $5.8 billion from $5.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.8% (8.8% y/y) and imports rose 6.4% (9.9% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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250506M8.jpg

- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March

250506C2.jpg

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades improved to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.1% y/y) in the week ended May 5 and reversed the prior week’s easing to $3.26. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eaed to $3.50 per gallon (-10.2% y/y) in the week of May 5 from $3.51 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $59.64 per barrel (-26.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after rising to $63.09 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $57.13 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $63.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week of May 2 from $67.92 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices improved to an average $3.09 per mmbtu (+88.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after falling to $3.00/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.26/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 following a 0.4% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 0.4% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.1% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories slipped 0.7% y/y in the week ending April 25 after a 1.2% y/y rise in the week ending April 18. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.7% y/y in the week of April 25, after a 19.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of April 25 after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.5 days in the week of April 25 from 26.4 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.9 days in the week of April 25 after three weeks at 28.3 days, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

250506E.jpg

Not many respondents are showing absolute slowing. Only five this month. Only six over the last three months on average. The median total PMI score fell to 49.7 showing contraction in April from 51.1 in March. The average fared slightly better. The 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show a moderate but consistent slowing. The breadth of slowing is wide with 60.9% of survey respondents slowing over three months compared to six months.

The percentile standings show the most strength for the BRIC group with reading above 50% (that marks the median). All other groupings have standings below the 50% mark indicating that they are below their respective medians of the last four-plus years.

Over every horizon from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, more than 50% of the respondents show a weakening (slowing) in their PMI responses.

Among the largest economies, only Italy has a composite PMI standing above its median (above 50%).

Only 9 of 24 respondents have PMI ranked percentile standings above the 50% mark. That underlines the weakness in composite conditions and the breadth of the weakness.
 
Services sectors no longer are providing the lift to offset ongoing weakness in manufacturing. The differences among countries are narrowing.

Economic conditions across countries may be narrowing for several reasons, one being that the COVID period and then the shock reaction to Russia's invasion from Ukraine put all countries on the same timeline as central banks have been leaning against the shockwaves from those 2 events. As a result of those events, inflation flared but has more recently been falling. Still, inflation continues to be over the top of targets with the European Monetary Union right now making the most progress and Japan facing more late cycle weakness with excessive inflation than other countries in the mix. More recently aggressive tariff policy the United States has put all countries on their back foot and puts everyone on notice that the future has become a lot more uncertain. Central banks that were progressing toward rate cuts now are worried about the possibility of more inflation from tariffs or from the possibility of recession from tariffs - tariffs up the ante on uncertainty as well as on risk. What we see in this month's PMI statistics is a gradual continued erosion as the perceived risk here is that things get steadily but slowly worse as firms, investors, and consumers began to pull in their horns and prepare for something bad to happen not knowing what that might be.

250506.jpg

Global Composite PMIs Erode

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on trade developments between the US and major Asian economies. Early indications coming out of US-India trade talks seem encouraging, with terms such as “forward most-favoured-nation” for the US and “zero-for-zero” tariffs appearing in news reports — terms which, if enacted, would represent a significant win for the US. India stands to benefit greatly as well if key exports to the US, such as pharmaceuticals (chart 1), receive substantial tariff relief. The benefits could be strongly mutual if a deal also grants the US greater access to India’s large auto consumer market, particularly for major US electric vehicle (EV) producers, given that EV adoption in India remains at a very early stage (chart 2).

Turning to South Korea, discussions also appear to be progressing at a healthy pace, although details remain limited and ongoing domestic political challenges continue to hinder substantive breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the South Korean won has shown signs of stabilisation, while local equity markets have remained buoyant (chart 3). Recent trade data for April has also provided some investor relief, as weak exports to the US were more than offset by a strong performance in semiconductor shipments (chart 4).

In Japan, the race to secure a trade deal with the US is well underway, with automotive exports expected to be a key focal point given their significance to Japan’s economy and the US being a major export destination (chart 5). China, however, remains a notable outlier, with formal trade talks with the US not yet underway. Still, the US-China trade relationship continues to be the most closely watched, given its scale and potential impact on global growth and trade dynamics. While markets await China’s official April trade data, early indicators such as port activity already suggest a decline in bilateral trade flows (chart 6).

**US-India trade talks**
US-India trade discussions have reportedly been progressing rapidly, with both sides having already finalized in April the terms of reference for talks, setting the stage for formal negotiations. One early sign of favourable momentum is India’s possible offering of a “forward most-favoured-nation” clause to the US. This would ensure the US always receives the most favourable tariff terms, ahead of any other trade partner. If enacted, this would be a significant win for the US and a major leap forward in the US-India trade relationship. Another reported breakthrough involves India’s reported proposal of “zero-for-zero” tariffs on steel, auto components, and pharmaceuticals—offered on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity. If agreed, this would be mutually beneficial, especially as pharmaceuticals remain one of the US economy’s key imports from India, as shown in chart 1. On a separate note, and more recently, India’s phone exports to the US have reportedly gained prominence. With steep US tariffs on China, firms like Apple are increasingly incentivised to accelerate production shifts to India.

250506T1.jpg

Additionally, India’s proposed “zero-for-zero” tariff plan for auto parts may galvanise US access to India’s large domestic auto market, which has remained comparatively insulated due to high import tariffs. Another area to watch in the trade talks is electric vehicle (EV) imports, especially given US EV giant Tesla’s continued interest in expanding into the Indian market. That said, EV adoption in India remains in its early stages by many measures. While India has an immense middle class with future sales potential, EVs accounted for only about 2% of new cars sold in 2023, as shown in chart 2. This is well below levels seen in other Asian economies like China, or leaders in this space like Norway, where nearly all new cars sold are EVs. Challenges remain in unlocking the domestic Indian market—particularly around affordability and the underdeveloped state of EV infrastructure.

250506T2.jpg

**US-South Korea trade talks**
Discussions on the US-South Korea trade front also appear to be progressing at a steady pace, with technical talks reportedly having concluded in Washington last week. However, details remain limited, and full-scale negotiations have not yet begun. Complicating matters is South Korea’s domestic political landscape. With the country heading into a snap presidential election on June 3, Vice Industry Minister Park has said there is no chance of a comprehensive deal being reached before then. Still, both sides have committed to working toward an agreement before the expiration of Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on July 8. In financial markets, the won continues to swing but remains above its year-to-date lows (chart 3). Meanwhile, South Korean equities have been lifted by a softening in trade rhetoric from both the US and China, as well as optimism around the US-South Korea talks.

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Turning to the hard trade data, South Korea’s more complete April numbers offered some initial relief to investors. The economy still managed to post moderate export growth, surprising many, despite a nearly 7% y/y decline in exports to the US, as shown in chart 4. One of the key drivers was semiconductors, which recorded double-digit y/y growth for the second consecutive month. However, these figures likely do not yet reflect the full initial impact of the steep mutual tariffs between the US and China. Firmer indications may emerge in the coming months. By then, though, attention will likely have shifted toward the outcome of US trade talks with key partners, as the end of its 90-day reciprocal tariff pause draws near.

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**US-Japan trade talks**
Turning to Japan, there is a sense of cautious optimism, with Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa expressing hope for a US-Japan trade deal by June, following the second and most recent round of talks held in Washington last week. A key point of interest is whether Japan can negotiate an exemption from the current 25% automotive tariffs imposed by the US. This is especially significant given the importance of the US as a destination for Japanese auto exports, as shown in chart 5, and the central role the sector plays in Japan’s broader manufacturing economy. Also worth noting is a recent clarification by Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, who walked back earlier remarks and stated that Japan will not use the sale of US Treasuries as a bargaining tool. The clarification may help defuse a potential point of friction between the two sides as trade discussions continue.

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**US-China trade developments**
Turning to US-China trade developments — while progress here has lagged, this relationship remains the most closely watched, given its potentially large impact if meaningful movement occurs. Recent messaging from both sides has softened, stepping back from the fiery exchanges and tariff escalations seen earlier in April, offering some interim relief for investors. China has reportedly exempted certain US imports from tariffs, including specific pharmaceutical and industrial chemical products. However, on US-China trade talks, they remain at a very early stage, with China merely “evaluating” the prospect of negotiations with the US. This suggests we are still far from anything resembling a formal deal. Investors are now closely watching for first-round effects of US tariffs, which are expected to appear in China’s April trade numbers due later this week. Early signs point to a slowdown. For example, vessel traffic at the Los Angeles–Long Beach port remains at range lows, hinting at reduced shipments from China.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Art of the Deal

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 during April, after falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management. The reading indicated service sector expansion for the tenth consecutive month, although the rate of expansion has slowed significantly. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 50.2 for April.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing index released on Thursday. This index rose to 51.2 in Apri from 50.6 in March. The latest figure remains above its June low of 49.1.

Amongst the services component series, the employment index led last month’s improvement in the overall index. It rose to 49.0 after falling sharply to 46.2 in March. Higher employment was reported by a slightly improved 14.6% (NSA) of respondents while a lessened 16.4% reported a decline. The new orders index rose to 52.3 after falling to 50.4 in March. A higher 22.4% (NSA) of respondents reported a rise in orders while a lessened 15.3% reported a decline. Reporting slower delivery speeds, the supplier delivery series edged up to 51.3 in April after falling to 50.6 in March. Working lower, the business activity series declined to 53.7 after rising to 55.9 in March. A higher 26.2% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a lessened 14.0% reported deterioration.

On the inflation front, the prices index surged to 68.9 in April after easing to 62.8 in March. A greatly increased 39.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 1.9% reported lower prices. The index was increased from its December 2022 low 53.1 and stood at its highest level since October 2022.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 48.6 (NSA) in April following a decline to 45.8 in March from 52.1 in February. Just 14.8% of survey respondents reported higher exports while an increased 17.7% reported a decline. The imports index plummeted to 44.3 last month from 52.6 in March. A greatly lessened 4.7% of respondents reported higher imports while a doubled 16.2% reported a decline. The inventory change index jumped to 53.4, a six-month high. The order backlog index edged up to 48.0 in April after falling sharply to 47.4 in March. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher backlogs while a fewer 16.2% reported a decline. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests	 contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens. 
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.

Economy in Brief: November 2009

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