Nine reporters in the table have manufacturing sectors that took a step back in January while eight improved on the month. The unweighted average PMI reading edged lower to 53.9 in January from 54.2 in December. In Asia, the [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Feb 01 2021Manufacturing Gradually Finds More Solid Ground
- Global| Jan 29 2021
GDP Rebounds in Q4 But Still Trails Trend
The table shows the early reporters of GDP in the EMU plus the U.S. result. On the far right, I present a percentile ranking of the year-on-year GDP growth rates on data back to 1997. Despite a massive rebound in GDP in Q3 – and one [...]
- Global| Jan 28 2021
European Commission Index Backs Off
The European Commission Index for the EMU area fell to 91.5 in January from 92.4 in December. It ranks in the lower 18.3% of all indexes released since 1988 (its queue or rank standing). The EMU index fell by 1% month-to-month. Among [...]
- Global| Jan 27 2021
German Consumer Confidence in February Is Projected Much Lower
The forward-looking GfK consumer confidence/climate gauge for February has stumbled for the fourth month in a row. Month-to-month the climate gauge fell by 8.1 points, its largest one-month drop since May 2020. Broad headline and [...]
- Global| Jan 26 2021
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The U.K. retail volume survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows dramatically weakened data for January- and for the February outlook- as the U.K. implements what is still a severe economic lockdown. U.K. [...]
- Global| Jan 25 2021
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January after posting a 5.2 reading in December. The chart (tracking the IFO indexes instead of the diffusion gauges reported in the table) shows clear deterioration is afoot again. On [...]
- Global| Jan 22 2021
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016. On that basis, the U.S. composite is on its high with the queue standing telling us that U.S. indicators are lower 98% of the time (this high or higher only [...]
- Global| Jan 21 2021
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues, But the French Economy Still Lags Badly
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed. The incidence of infection is at its highest since mid-November. The trend may still be rising. But France also has one significant positive virus-related event and that is that the [...]
- Global| Jan 20 2021
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row. On a monthly basis, EMU inflation has fallen in only five of the last 12 months, but the balance between the size of the gains vs. the size of the [...]
- Global| Jan 19 2021
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground; Inflation Expectations Stake Out the High Ground As Well
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe. For the most part, country/regional level data are little changed. In the aggregate, data are very little changed. The details show a larger [...]
- Global| Jan 15 2021
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
The graphic tells a clear story of recent trends. Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum after they reached a 12-month growth-rate low in March. Growth rates for exports and imports are reviving with exports leading the [...]
- Global| Jan 14 2021
Japan's Orders Are Mixed and Its Surveys Are Weak
Japan's industrial orders were mixed in November with headline orders falling by 1.5% and core orders rising by 1.5%. Year-on-year the comparison is exactly opposite with total orders rising by 1% and core orders lower by an outsized [...]
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