Germany's business expectations in the IFO survey 'flipped' from a reading of -2.8 in August to one of +5.9 in September. This sort of one-month spurt is rare. In fact, the change in the monthly IFO expectations index has been greater [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Sep 26 2016Surprise Spurt in Germany's IFO: Should You Believe It?
- Global| Sep 23 2016
Euro Area Composite PMI Weakens; Trends Diverge
The EMU composite (private sector) index has fallen in September to a diffusion reading of 52.6 from 52.9 in August. It is the weakest reading since January 2015. This overall PMI gauge is now in the 52nd percentile of its queue of [...]
- Global| Sep 22 2016
U.K. CBI Survey Turns Upbeat: Temper Your Enthusiasm
Conflicting numbers and expectations stalk the U.K. outlook. In the wake of Brexit, the early `Big News' is that few economic reports seem to show much impact from the vote. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) just issued a [...]
- Global| Sep 21 2016
Japan's Yen Surplus Snakes Higher As BOJ `Reinforces' Its Easing
Japan's `swing to surplus,' now 10 months old, continues in August and advances its cause (slightly). The excess of goods exports over goods imports is now the best since April of this year and before that the surplus was last higher [...]
- Global| Sep 20 2016
German PPI Shows Less Downward Pressure...And So?
The German PPI was flat in August. The PPI excluding energy was also flat. The CPI was flat in August. The CPI excluding energy was up by 0.1%. Is there a pattern here? Flat, flat, flat, and up by 0.1%. These are very moderate [...]
- Global| Sep 19 2016
Italian Trade and Current Account Surpluses Slip
Italy's trade and current account surpluses are shrinking in July. The shrink is based on a drop in exports on the month that is larger than the drop in imports, a sort of economic race to the bottom. A smaller surplus will subtract [...]
- Global| Sep 16 2016
Euro Labor Costs Are Subdued
Wage inflation is mostly subdued across the euro area. Data through the second quarter show that EMU hourly wage costs are up by only 1% over 12 months and that wage growth is at a slightly slower pace than that over three months [...]
- Global| Sep 15 2016
Euro Area Auto Registrations Flatten
Europe's passenger car registrations rose by 10.3% month-to-month after a 9.7% drop in July. The welcome bounce back leaves registrations higher by 9.7% year-over-year. The sequential growth rates for registrations are not very [...]
- Global| Sep 15 2016
U.S. PPI Pressures Stay at Bay
In August, the U.S. PPI for final demand was dead flat with the core (excluding food and energy) up in the month by a thin 0.1%. The PPI is coming off a volatile streak; it rose by 0.5% in June and then fell by 0.4% in July. Headline [...]
- Global| Sep 14 2016
Euro Area IP Falls Sharply in Step with Bond Prices...How Curious
Euro Area IP has fallen relatively sharply in July. The 1.1% drop matches the 1.1% drop in May with a 0.9% gain for June sandwiched in-between. Output has been see-sawing in the Euro-Area over the last five months. Still, it is lower [...]
- Global| Sep 13 2016
ZEW Index Neither Zigs Nor Zags
The Zew experts' expectations were dead flat at a net diffusion reading of 0.5 for the second month in row. At a level of 0.5 the expectations index is stronger 75% of the time (lower 25% of the time) and as such indicates [...]
- Global| Sep 12 2016
Mixed Signals from Japan's Corporate Sector
Foreign Demand Sinks as Domestic Demand Revives But Core Orders Stage Turnaround Nailing down Japan's economic trends can be harder than nailing Jell-O to the wall. Japan's orders report has enough convoluted trends to keep us [...]
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