Economy in Brief: March 2021

• Refinancing applications decline as mortgage interest rates move higher. • Purchase applications continue to strengthen. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 1.3% (-32.3% y/y) in the week ended [...]

• Energy prices again are strong. • Services prices heat up. • Core goods prices decline. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y) during February following an unrevised 0.3% January increase. The gain matched expectations in the [...]

Oil prices are leading inflation higher in the EMU as well a globally. Oil and other commodities are gaining pace as growth looks to be more established, as virus-fighting seems to be more effective, as vaccination progresses on a [...]

The OECD LEI continues to claw its way to higher ground. It has now risen month-to-month for eight months in a row. The LEI rose by one tick in February, by two ticks in January, and by one tick in December. While this is a steady [...]

• NFIB Small Business Optimism reverses January decline. • Economic worries about sales and the economy persist. • Pricing power strengthens to highest level since 2008. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported [...]

• Gasoline prices jump to 2019 high. • Oil prices are little-changed w/w but jumped yesterday. • Natural gas prices weaken further. The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.77 per gallon (16.7% y/y) in the week ended March 8, [...]

The economy watchers current index improved smartly to 41.3 in February from 31.2 in January as the outlook index jumped to 51.3 from 39.9. The outlook index (above a raw score of 50 in diffusion terms) now has more optimism than [...]

• Wholesale inventory accumulation is broad-based. • Unexpected jump in sales lowers I/S ratio. Activity in the wholesale sector is strengthening. Wholesale inventories surged 1.3% during January (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% December [...]