Economy in Brief: February 2021

German factory orders fell by 1.9% in December, their first monthly drop since April of last year. Of course, orders fell sharply in March and April of last year as the virus struck and struck hard – some places harder than others. [...]

• Trade deficit decreases to $66.6 billion in December. • Exports grow 3.4%; Imports rise 1.5%. • This report suggests net exports will be a larger drag in Q4 than the 1.5 percentage points estimated in last week's GDP report. The [...]

• Service sector remains notably weak. • Earnings growth moderates. • Unemployment rate declines sharply to lowest level since March. Weakness in the labor market persists. Nonfarm payroll employment improved just 49,000 during [...]

Retail sales rose in December but did not gain back all the ground lost in November’s drop. December brought a month-to-month gain in sales volume of 2% in the wake of November’s 5.7% monthly drop. In fact, retail sales growth rates [...]

• Factory orders have risen in each month since May 2020. • Inventory accumulation continues. • Order backlogs decline further. Manufacturing activity continues to strengthen. Factory orders rose in December for an eighth consecutive [...]

• State initial claims fall 33,000; PUA claims have bigger decline of 54,678. • Continuing claims decrease 193,000; prior week revised modestly higher but still declines. • Insured jobless rate 3.2%, lowest since March 21, when [...]

• Nonfarm worker productivity posts deepest drop in forty years. • Compensation increases moderately. • Unit labor costs surge. Nonfarm business sector productivity declined 4.8% (SAAR, +2.5% y/y) during Q4'20 following a 5.1% Q3 [...]

The J.P.Morgan global PMI index is weaker month-to-month in January 2021. Emerging markets are weaker on the month, but developed economies are slightly stronger. In January, 10 of 22 countries report weaker conditions than one month [...]