Global| Feb 05 2021U.S. Payrolls Rise Modestly as Expected in January; Revisions Moved Sharply Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Service sector remains notably weak. • Earnings growth moderates. • Unemployment rate declines sharply to lowest level since March. Weakness in the labor market persists. Nonfarm payroll employment improved just 49,000 during [...]
• Service sector remains notably weak.
• Earnings growth moderates.
• Unemployment rate declines sharply to lowest level since March.
Weakness in the labor market persists. Nonfarm payroll employment improved just 49,000 during January following a 227,000 December decline, revised from -140,000. A 50,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. The November employment gain was shaved to 264,000 from 336,000. The estimates of the January payroll change had ranged from 345,000 to -150,000 amongst 25 forecasters.
Average hourly earnings growth moderated to 0.2% (5.4% y/y) last month following a 1.0% December gain, revised from 0.8%. November earnings rose 0.3%. A 0.4% January increase had been expected.
The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.7% in each of the prior two months. Employment in the household survey rose 201,000 (-5.4% y/y) after increasing 21,000 in December while the labor force declined 406,000 (-2.6% y/y) after increasing 31,000 in December. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, slipped to 11.1% from 11.7%, its lowest point since March.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 49 | -227 | 264 | -6.1% | -5.8 | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | -140 | 336 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -10 | 31 | 41 | -4.3 | -5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Construction | -3 | 42 | 24 | -2.7 | -3.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 10 | -280 | 291 | -6.6 | -6.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Government | 43 | -23 | -95 | -5.5 | -3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 35.0 | 34.7 | 34.8 | 34.3 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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