Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914b.jpg" width="353">
Industrial output in August rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. The disappointment centered on declines in utility output (-0.5%) and mining output (-0.7%). Factory sector production rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) but the July increase was revised down to just 0.1%.
Hurricane Katrina lowered the gain in output by 0.3 percentage points.
A 3.8% (5.5% y/y) rise in motor vehicle &amp; parts production accounted for all of last month&#39;s output gain. Less motor vehicles, factory output was unchanged (2.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% July increase.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914c.jpg" width="353">
Output of computers &amp; peripheral equipment jumped another 1.5% (19.4% y/y) after the huge 2.3% spike in July. Excluding the high tech sector as well as autos, factory output fell 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
Output of appliances, furniture &amp; carpeting rose 0.7% (1.0% y/y) and recovered a 0.8% drop in July although output of nondurable goods doubled the prior month&#39;s decline and fell 0.6% (+2.4% y/y). U.S. clothing output has fallen nearly two thirds from what is was ten years ago (-6.7% y/y) and, during the last three months, paper products&#39; output is down as well (+3.4% y/y).
Total capacity utilization was stable at 79.8% and capacity grew 1.1% y/y. Factory sector utilization rose to 78.4%, up from 77.2% last August while capacity rose 1.4% y/y.
Pricing, Production and Persistence from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/wps/2005/wp05-4.pdf"> here</a>.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-7.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>79.8%</td>
<td>79.8%</td>
<td>78.3% (8/04)</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.3%</td>
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Industrial output in August rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. The disappointment centered on declines in utility output (-0.5%) and mining output (-0.7%). Factory [...]

Industrial Production Increase Again Light

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales fell 2.1% in August due to a 12.0% drop in motor vehicle dealers&#39; sales. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.3% decline. Less autos, however, retail sales doubled expectations and rose 1.0%.
Some of this m/m strength was due to a 4.4% surge in gasoline service station sales, although it was just half the 8.6% m/m increase in the retail price of gasoline to an average $2.49 per gallon.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rebounded 0.5% (7.0 y/y) following no change in July.
Sales at furniture &amp; electronics stores rose 0.6% (5.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.2% July increase. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) jumped 1.8% (11.0% y/y) and sales of building materials rose 0.5% (8.4% y/y).
On the disappointing side, general merchandise store sales rose a modest 0.3% (6.7% y/y) after downwardly revised gains in both July and June while apparel store sales were unchanged after a deepened 0.9% drop in July.
Oil Prices and Consumer Spending from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available <a href="http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/economic_research/economic_quarterly/pdfs/summer2005/mehrapetersen.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
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US retail sales fell 2.1% in August due to a 12.0% drop in motor vehicle dealers' sales. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.3% decline. Less autos, however, retail sales doubled expectations and rose 1.0%. Some of this m/m [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Down With Autos, Elsewhere OK

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales fell 2.1% in August due to a 12.0% drop in motor vehicle dealers&#39; sales. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.3% decline. Less autos, however, retail sales doubled expectations and rose 1.0%.
Some of this m/m strength was due to a 4.4% surge in gasoline service station sales, although it was just half the 8.6% m/m increase in the retail price of gasoline to an average $2.49 per gallon.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rebounded 0.5% (7.0 y/y) following no change in July.
Sales at furniture &amp; electronics stores rose 0.6% (5.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.2% July increase. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) jumped 1.8% (11.0% y/y) and sales of building materials rose 0.5% (8.4% y/y).
On the disappointing side, general merchandise store sales rose a modest 0.3% (6.7% y/y) after downwardly revised gains in both July and June while apparel store sales were unchanged after a deepened 0.9% drop in July.
Oil Prices and Consumer Spending from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available <a href="http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/economic_research/economic_quarterly/pdfs/summer2005/mehrapetersen.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Increase Again Light 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914b.jpg" width="353">
Industrial output in August rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. The disappointment centered on declines in utility output (-0.5%) and mining output (-0.7%). Factory sector production rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) but the July increase was revised down to just 0.1%. 
Hurricane Katrina lowered the gain in output by 0.3 percentage points. 
A 3.8% (5.5% y/y) rise in motor vehicle &amp; parts production accounted for all of last month&#39;s output gain. Less motor vehicles, factory output was unchanged (2.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% July increase. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914c.jpg" width="353">
Output of computers &amp; peripheral equipment jumped another 1.5% (19.4% y/y) after the huge 2.3% spike in July. Excluding the high tech sector as well as autos, factory output fell 0.1% (+1.6% y/y). 
Output of appliances, furniture &amp; carpeting rose 0.7% (1.0% y/y) and recovered a 0.8% drop in July although output of nondurable goods doubled the prior month&#39;s decline and fell 0.6% (+2.4% y/y). U.S. clothing output has fallen nearly two thirds from what is was ten years ago (-6.7% y/y) and, during the last three months, paper products&#39; output is down as well (+3.4% y/y). 
Total capacity utilization was stable at 79.8% and capacity grew 1.1% y/y. Factory sector utilization rose to 78.4%, up from 77.2% last August while capacity rose 1.4% y/y.
Pricing, Production and Persistence from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/wps/2005/wp05-4.pdf"> here</a>.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-7.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>79.8%</td>
<td>79.8%</td>
<td>78.3% (8/04)</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Budget Deficit Deepened Due To Widespread Spending 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914f.jpg" width="353">
In August, the U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $50.0B. That was slightly deeper than Consensus estimates but it was quite a bit deeper than a $41.1BB deficit last August. Nevertheless, the deficit of $352.6B during the first eleven months of FY 2005 was 19% lower than the prior fiscal year&#39;s first eleven months. 
Overall, U.S. net outlays grew 6.8% during the first eleven months of FY05. A 20.3% y/y gain in federal outlays on defense (19% of total outlays) counted for much of the deterioration in the deficit picture versus last August. That rise lifted defense spending by 7.3% in fiscal year 2005 versus 2004. Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) also popped 29.6% versus August of 2004 and FYTD growth accelerated to 9.4%. Growth in spending on social security (21% of total outlays) was about stable at 5.6% though spending on health programs (10% of the total) picked up a bit to 4.4%. Spending on education &amp; training (4% of the total) surged 51% versus last August and grew 15.3% FYTD while interest expense (8% of the total) grew 11.7% with higher interest rates versus declines last year. 
Net receipt growth at 13.7% during the first eleven months of FY05 continued to reflect the improved economy. Individual income taxes (44% of total receipts) rose 15.3% and corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) rose 41.3%. The improved job market raised employment taxes (36% of total receipts) by 8.1%. 
Do Productivity Growth, Budget Deficits, and Monetary Policy Actions Affect Real Interest Rates? Evidence From Macroeconomic Announcement Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2004/2004-019.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM">US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">FY &#39;05 - YTD</th>
<th scope="col">FY2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY2003</th>
<th scope="col">FY2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$-50.0B</td>
<td>$52.8B</td>
<td>$-352.6B</td>
<td>$-412.1B</td>
<td>$-377.6B</td>
<td>$-157.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Revenues</td>
<td>$155.4B</td>
<td>$142.1B</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Outlays</td>
<td>$205.4B</td>
<td>$194.9B</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Good Growth in Irish Employment; Unemployment Rate Low in Q2 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 14, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914d.jpg" width="353">
As we monitor large economies around the world, it&#39;s easy to lose track of their smaller neighbors. Ireland&#39;s Central Statistics Office reported employment and unemployment data this morning for Q2. The labor market there is strong and undergoing an interesting structural shift.
Employment shot up in Q2 by 20,900 from Q1, producing a 93,000 increase from Q2 a year ago, a substantial 5.1% growth rate. In comparison, employment in the UK, which was reported today for the three months centered on June, grew by 1.11% year-on-year, and that was the fastest rate since last November (the three months centered on November), when it was just marginally higher, 1.14%. Further for Ireland, whose data are not seasonally adjusted, the increase was also the biggest for Q2 over Q1 in five years, since 2000. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050914e.jpg" width="353">
The Irish unemployment rate rose very modestly from 4.1% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2. Even so, these two quarters have the lowest six-month average rate since 2001. The rate peaked at 5.1% in Q3 2003. Impressively, the low unemployment is being maintained at high levels of labor force participation. The participation rate reached 61.5% in Q2, a record for Q2, and 1.5 percentage points above Q2 2004.
One might think of Ireland as a manufacturing-centered country, but it, as others, has seen that sector diminish. Factory jobs fell to 294,200 in Q2, the first Q2 figure below 300,000 in the eight-year history of the series and down from a peak of 330,700 in Q3 2001. Notably, though, &quot;industry&quot; as a whole has held steady as construction jobs have taken up the slack. Services are responsible for the firm overall growth in jobs, with several individual sectors advancing steadily -- finance, education and health care, most notably.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/IRELAND/IRELAND.HTM">Ireland</a> Not Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (thousands)</td>
<td>1929.2</td>
<td>1908.3</td>
<td>1836.2</td>
<td>1865.0</td>
<td>1810.6</td>
<td>1777.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr %Chg</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%)</td>
<td>61.5</td>
<td>61.0</td>
<td>60.0</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>50.1</td>
<td>60.0</td>
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</tbody>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913j.jpg" width="353">
Inflation in Europe has remained surprisingly subdued in the face of sharply rising oil prices. However the data released today for three Euro Zone countries--France, Germany and Spain--and the United Kingdom suggest that this situation may be about to change. Although the August year-over-year percentage increases in consumer price indexes (the generally accepted definition of inflation) for Germany and Spain were lower than the July increases, those for the U. K. and France were significantly higher. Data for Germany and Spain are shown in the first chart and those for the U.K. and France in the second chart.
Of the four countries, the sharpest change has occurred in the U.K. Over that past five years, inflation in the UK showed little trend as it varied between 0.65% and 1.98% -- for the most part, well below the Bank of England&#39;s 2% inflation target rate. In late 2004, however, inflation began to rise sharply, and, for the last two months has been above the target rate, 2.3% in July and 2.4% in August. In spite of the July rise in inflation above its target rate, the Bank of England voted 5 to 4 to lower the base rate from 4.75% to 4.50% on August 4 to counteract slow growth. Should inflation continue above the target rate, further reductions in the base rate, even if growth remains sluggish, may now be less likely.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913i.jpg" width="353">
Among the countries in the Euro Zone, France is the other country, reporting today, to show some recent increase in the rate of inflation. Inflation in France had seemed to trending downward in the last part of 2004 but now shows some signs of reversing that trend. In contrast to France, inflation in Spain and Germany rose sharply in early 2004 and has since remained trend less at the higher level. In the face of sluggish growth in the Euro Zone, the European Central Bank has maintained its base rate at 2% since June, 2003. With the increased risk of higher inflation, slow growth would be unlikely to trigger a further decline in the base rate, while any indication of improved growth is very like to trigger an increase in the base rate.
Both France and Germany have had relatively low rates of inflation, while Spain has been among the high inflation group within the Euro Zone. As an indication of the relative position of the Euro Zone countries on the inflation scale, one can compare the level of the Harmonized Consumer Price Indexes which are comparable across countries and have the same base year,1996. For example, in 2004, the Harmonized Consumer Price Index for France averaged 113.3, that for Germany, 110.7, and for Spain, 124.1. 

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Year-over-Year Percent Change in CPI Index</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U. K.&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.43</td>
<td>2.34</td>
<td>1.27</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>1.16</td>
<td>1.34</td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>1.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.81</td>
<td>1.72</td>
<td>2.31</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>-0.60</td>
<td>2.13</td>
<td>2.11</td>
<td>1.92</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.87</td>
<td>1.89</td>
<td>2.01</td>
<td>-0.02</td>
<td>-0.14</td>
<td>1.67</td>
<td>1.05</td>
<td>1.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>3.28</td>
<td>3.38</td>
<td>-0.01</td>
<td>-0.11</td>
<td>3.05</td>
<td>3.03</td>
<td>3.53</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Inflation in Europe has remained surprisingly subdued in the face of sharply rising oil prices. However the data released today for three Euro Zone countries--France, Germany and Spain--and the United Kingdom suggest that this [...]

European Inflation Becoming a Rising Concern to Central Banks

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913f.jpg" width="353">
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their index of optimism amongst small businesses fell 0.2% in August and reversed a small up tick the month prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
A greater percentage of firms expected higher real sales in six months but a lower percentage expected the economy to improve.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913g.jpg" width="353">
The percentage of firms with one or more job openings jumped back to the five year high of 24%. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending fell as did the percentage of firms raising average selling prices rose.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>100.9</td>
<td>101.1</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>101.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their index of optimism amongst small businesses fell 0.2% in August and reversed a small up tick the month prior. During the last ten years there has been a 64% [...]

Small Business Optimism Slipped

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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for next quarter slipped to 20, down slightly from the average of 21 during the prior three quarters. The index indicates that a net 20% of 16,000 employers expect to increase hiring activity.
Since 1980 there has been a 74% correlation between the Manpower index and the y/y change in non-farm payrolls.
Not seasonally adjusted, 20% of employers planned to raise employment in 4Q04 while 8% planned to decrease employment.
The latest press release from Manpower Inc. covering global employment prospects can be viewed <a href="http://www.manpower.com/mpcom/viewMeos?name=4Q05_MEOS_Int_Release_FINAL.doc">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@SC/@SC.HTM">Manpower Employment Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Industries - Net Higher (SA)</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for next quarter slipped to 20, down slightly from the average of 21 during the prior three quarters. The index indicates that a net 20% of 16,000 employers expect to increase hiring activity. [...]

Manpower Index Slipped

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The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell 0.2% last week after no change the prior week. So far this month sales are 0.5% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July. 
The ICSC indicated that at least 13 shopping malls were closed indefinitely be Hurricane Katrina. 
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% in the latest week (-0.3% y/y) following 0.2% declines during the prior two weeks. 
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/10/05</th>
<th scope="col">09/03/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>454.6</td>
<td>455.4</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell 0.2% last week after no change the prior week. So far this month sales are 0.5% below the August average which fell 0.1% from July. [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Down A Bit

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed to $57.9B in July versus the June deficit of $59.4 which was deeper than initially reported. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $59.7B. Despite the narrowing, the U.S. trade deficit remained in record territory with the average during the last three months a record $57.8B.
Adjusted for price inflation, the customs value of the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.6B, the narrowest since March.
Total exports rose a paltry 0.4% following two months of having been roughly unchanged. The 0.5% (10.6% y/y) rise in goods exports last month was again held back by a decline in food, feeds &amp; beverages which fell 2.8% (+9.0% y/y). Capital goods exports rose 0.6% (8.3% y/y) though exports of advanced technology products fell 10.2% (NSA, +8.6% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports rose 0.5% (13.0% y/y)
Services exports rose 0.1% (10.1% y/y) for the second month.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050913b.jpg" width="353">
The 0.7% decline in imports of goods &amp; services was due mostly to a 2.2% decline in capital goods (+9.5% y/y) and a 2.2% (+7.8% y/y) decline in nonauto consumer goods. Imports of petroleum products rose 5.2% (45.5% y/y) as the average price of crude oil rose to $49.03 per bbl. (46.9% y/y). Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 1.4% (+7.6% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China remained about stable at $17.7B ($161.9B in 2004) but the US trade deficit with Japan improved slightly to $6.6B ($75.6B in 2004). The monthly trade deficit with the Asian NICs also narrowed slightly to $1.2B ($21.9B in 2004) but the deficit with the European Union deepened to $11.2B ($109.3B in 2004). 
A Look at China&#39;s New Exchange Rate Regime from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-23.pdf"> here</a>.
Also from the San Francisco Fed, Understanding the Twin Deficits: New Approaches, New Results can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-16.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$57.9B</td>
<td>$59.5B</td>
<td>$51.3B (7/04)</td>
<td>$617.6B</td>
<td>$494.8B</td>
<td>$421.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>16.6%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed to $57.9B in July versus the June deficit of $59.4 which was deeper than initially reported. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $59.7B. Despite the narrowing, the U.S. trade [...]

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Narrowed

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Robert Brusca

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: September 2005

Jump to:

Industrial Production Increase Again Light

U.S. Retail Sales Down With Autos, Elsewhere OK

U.S. Retail Sales Down With Autos, Elsewhere OK

European Inflation Becoming a Rising Concern to Central Banks

Small Business Optimism Slipped

Manpower Index Slipped

Weekly Chain Store Sales Down A Bit

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Narrowed