Global| Sep 14 2005Industrial Production Increase Again Light
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output in August rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. The disappointment centered on declines in utility output (-0.5%) and mining output (-0.7%). Factory [...]
Industrial output in August rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. The disappointment centered on declines in utility output (-0.5%) and mining output (-0.7%). Factory sector production rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) but the July increase was revised down to just 0.1%.
Hurricane Katrina lowered the gain in output by 0.3 percentage points.
A 3.8% (5.5% y/y) rise in motor vehicle & parts production accounted for all of last month's output gain. Less motor vehicles, factory output was unchanged (2.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% July increase.
Output of computers & peripheral equipment jumped another 1.5% (19.4% y/y) after the huge 2.3% spike in July. Excluding the high tech sector as well as autos, factory output fell 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
Output of appliances, furniture & carpeting rose 0.7% (1.0% y/y) and recovered a 0.8% drop in July although output of nondurable goods doubled the prior month's decline and fell 0.6% (+2.4% y/y). U.S. clothing output has fallen nearly two thirds from what is was ten years ago (-6.7% y/y) and, during the last three months, paper products' output is down as well (+3.4% y/y).
Total capacity utilization was stable at 79.8% and capacity grew 1.1% y/y. Factory sector utilization rose to 78.4%, up from 77.2% last August while capacity rose 1.4% y/y.
Pricing, Production and Persistence from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
| Production & Capacity | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | -0.0% | -0.3% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.4% | -0.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| Business Equipment | -0.2% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 1.2% | -7.9% |
| Capacity Utilization | 79.8% | 79.8% | 78.3% (8/04) | 78.1% | 75.5% | 75.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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