Economy in Brief: July 2010

CEOs from around the U.S. grew more optimistic about the U.S. economy last quarter, but the degree of improvement was the least of the current recovery. Although the Vistage CEO confidence index rose just 0.7% from 1Q (+36.8% y/y), [...]

Commodity price figures probably are the most sensitive, high frequency economic indicators. What they show is that U.S. economic growth has lost forward momentum. The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index of spot prices is off [...]

The revision in UK GDP left few changes on overall growth. But the trade picture is deteriorated as a sharply wider deficit was reported for Q1. Exports in Q1 are now dropping at a 6.6% annual rate and imports are up at a 6.7% pace [...]

Happy central bankers - The ECB can be happy. The Bundesbank can be happy. Inflation is beating a retreat in the wake of the financial crisis and as we get about one-year into economic rebound. Over three months the HICP is actually [...]

The American Bankers Association reported yesterday that the percentage of most types of closed-end loans behind on payments declined in March. Leading the decline was the drop in delinquent auto loan payments. Just 1.79% of loans [...]

Consumers' deleveraging may be intensifying. Not only did consumer credit outstanding decline $9.1B during May, but the sharp $14.9B April drop was revised from a modest advance reported initially. Finally, May continued a string of [...]

Higher! German Industrial production rose by 2.6% in May after a rise of 1.2% in April. The sequential annualized growth rates continue to ramp up. Yesterday, industrial orders fell and that may be a wake up call, since orders do [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped last week to 454,000 following an upwardly revised increase during the prior week to 475,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims also slipped to 466,000 but still was [...]