Global| Jul 12 2010Vistage Survey of Small Businesses Grows Somewhat More Optimistic
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
CEOs from around the U.S. grew more optimistic about the U.S. economy last quarter, but the degree of improvement was the least of the current recovery. Although the Vistage CEO confidence index rose just 0.7% from 1Q (+36.8% y/y), [...]
CEOs from around the U.S. grew more optimistic about the
U.S. economy last quarter, but the degree of improvement was the least of the
current recovery. Although the Vistage CEO confidence index rose just 0.7% from
1Q (+36.8% y/y), the index has been growing since the late-2008 low. Since
inception in 2003 the index level has an 80% correlation with the Q/Q change in
real GDP.
The company's release indicated that 9% of executives polled are planning layoffs in the next 12 months, the lowest level in three years. Almost half were expecting to keep their number of employees constant. The survey results also indicate significant disillusion about governmental support of small businesses. Increased taxes and intrusive regulations topped the list of concerns. More than 87% of the CEOs polled feel the federal government doesn't understand the challenges small businesses face well enough to help expand business opportunities.
The Vistage CEO Index is a compilation of responses from thousands of CEOs of small and mid-sized companies. The source is Vistage International.
The index figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Restoring the Flow of Credit to Small Businesses is this morning's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here
| Q2 '10 | Q1 '10 | Q4 '09 | Q3 '09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vistage CEO Confidence Index (2Q '03=100) |
94.4 | 93.7 | 87.9 | 84.9 | 75.6 | 65.7 | 85.8 |
| Q/Q Chg. | 0.7% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 23.0% | 15.1% | -23.5% | -10.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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