Global| Jul 08 2010U.S. Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip But Remain Near Recent High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped last week to 454,000 following an upwardly revised increase during the prior week to 475,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims also slipped to 466,000 but still was [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped last week to 454,000 following
an upwardly revised increase during the prior week to 475,000. The
four-week moving average of initial claims also slipped to 466,000 but still was
higher than the low of 450,500 reached one month ago. These figures are down
from the recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009. Consensus
expectations were for 460,000 claims last week.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell sharply to 4.413M which was the lowest level since November 2008 and off by one-third from the June '09 peak. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. The four-week average of continuing claims slipped to 4.554M, a new cycle low. This series dates back to 1966.
Ongoing claims do not reflect those who receive extended benefits. Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose slightly during the latest week to 429,816. These figures do not include the 4,147,551 benefit recipients (+60.3% y/y) under state administered "EUC" emergency programs, but paid for by the Federal government.
The insured unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest level since December 2008. It reached a high of 4.9% during May of 2009. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 19 were in Puerto Rico (6.7%), Oregon (4.9), Alaska (4.8), Pennsylvania (4.7), Nevada (4.5), California (4.3), Wisconsin (4.2), Connecticut (4.0), North Carolina (3.9), and South Carolina (3.9). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (1.8), Wyoming (2.1), Texas (2.2), Tennessee (2.6), Maine (2.7), Maryland (2.9), Georgia (3.0), Florida (3.2), Massachusetts (3.2), New York (3.2) and Ohio (3.5). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
New perspectives on health and health care policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/03/10 | 06/26/10 | 06/19/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 454 | 475 | 459 | -20.5% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,413 | 4,637 | -32.8 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.9(6/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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