Economy in Brief: October 2020

• Wholesale inventory gain follows three straight months of decline. • Sales continue on upward path for fourth consecutive month. • Inventory-to-sales ratio falls again. Wholesale inventories increased 0.4% during August (-5.2% y/y) [...]

Europe is recovering, but recovery is slowing. In August, 7 of 12 early reporting EMU economies showed increases in industrial production. However, the exceptions were significant as they included two of the four largest EMU [...]

• Housing affordability decreased in August for the fourth consecutive month. • Falling incomes and rising home prices offset record low mortgage interest rates. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate [...]

• Initial claims in state programs fell to lowest level since second week of March. • PUA program initial claims fell further. • The insured unemployment rate fell to 7.5%, lowest level since late-March. Initial claims for [...]

The Bank of France continues to look for a 16% rebound in Q3 GDP even as evidence shows that the sharp gain from Q2 lows is losing momentum and may have reached a plateau of some sort. The virus is circulating in France again causing [...]

• Nonrevolving borrowing edges higher. • Credit card balances are being liquidated. Consumers recently grew cautious about using credit. Consumer credit outstanding declined $7.2 billion during August following two months of double- [...]

German manufacturing is stumbling according to the August industrial production report and that is very different from the PMI survey from Markit that says output is advancing nicely. According to Markit, manufacturing diffusion is [...]

• Refinancing applications surge but purchase applications fall. • Mortgage interest rates reach record lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index rebounded 4.6% (38.4% y/y) in the week ended October 2 [...]