Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060116b.jpg" width="353">
Data on Japan&#39;s balance of payments for November were released today by the Ministry of Finance. The ministry reports the data in hundred millions of yen and these figures are reported in the Haver Data base but in the table below and in the following text we have moved the decimal point one to the left and, as a result, report the figures in billions of yen instead of the hundred millions.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060116a.jpg" width="353">
On a seasonally adjusted basis the current account in November was 1,569.8 billion yen or at the exchange rate of November 30, about $15 billion. The current account declined by 103.8 billion yen from October, but was 98.1 billion yen above November 2005. The month to month decline was due an lessening of the deficit on services of142.5 billion yen and a 220.0 billion yen decline in income on overseas transactions. Since early this year net income from overseas transactions has become a bigger factor in the current account than the balance on goods as shown in the first chart.
Although the trade in goods surplus increased 224.1 billion yen from October to November it was 120.0 billion yen below November of 2004. The stimulus to exports from the almost 16% depreciation of the yen over the past year was offset by the negative impact of higher oil prices on imports. The year over year change in imports and exports are shown in the second chart. Throughout this year the year over year increase in imports has outweighed that of exports. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J9/@J9.HTM">Japan Current Account&nbsp;</a> (Billion yen)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 05&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">Nov 04&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M dif&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">2003&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2002&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Current Account</td>
<td>1,569.8</td>
<td>1,673.6</td>
<td>1.471.7</td>
<td>-103.8</td>
<td>98.1</td>
<td>18,594.4</td>
<td>15,828.7</td>
<td>14,040.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Balance on Goods and Services</td>
<td>718.8</td>
<td>637.2</td>
<td>742.2</td>
<td>81.6</td>
<td>-23.4.</td>
<td>10,042.2</td>
<td>8,378.3</td>
<td>6,449.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Balance on Goods</td>
<td>976.1</td>
<td>752.0</td>
<td>1,096.1</td>
<td>224.1</td>
<td>-120.0</td>
<td>14,124.7</td>
<td>12,274.1</td>
<td>11,699.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>5,669.5</td>
<td>5,552.4</td>
<td>5,072.4</td>
<td>117.1</td>
<td>597.4</td>
<td>58,095.0</td>
<td>51,952.6</td>
<td>49,449.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>4,693.4</td>
<td>4,800.4</td>
<td>3,976.1</td>
<td>-107.0</td>
<td>717.3</td>
<td>43,960.5</td>
<td>39,678.4</td>
<td>37,750.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Balance on Services</td>
<td>-257.3</td>
<td>-114.8</td>
<td>-353.8</td>
<td>-142.5</td>
<td>98.5</td>
<td>-4,082.4</td>
<td>-3,895.9</td>
<td>-5,249.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Net Income</td>
<td>892.2</td>
<td>1,112.2</td>
<td>813.1</td>
<td>-220.0</td>
<td>7901</td>
<td>9,385.5</td>
<td>8,323.1</td>
<td>8,273.4&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Current Transfers</td>
<td>-41.2</td>
<td>-75.8</td>
<td>-83.6</td>
<td>34.6</td>
<td>42.2</td>
<td>-833.5</td>
<td>-872.6</td>
<td>-681.8&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Data on Japan's balance of payments for November were released today by the Ministry of Finance. The ministry reports the data in hundred millions of yen and these figures are reported in the Haver Data base but in the table below and [...]

Japan's Balance of Payment: Net Income from Overseas Transactions Currently Is Greater than Trade in Goods Balance

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113d.jpg" width="353">
Inflation was modest across four European countries as 2005 ended, according to CPI data reported today. In France, the total index rose 0.2% in December from November and 1.5% from December 2004. This was even slower than the 2.1% in 2004. France&#39;s CPI excluding energy slowed for the year by a similar amount, to 1.1% from 1.5% across 2004. The slowing is concentrated in manufactured products, for which prices fell more than in 2004, and even in services, which rose 2.8% across 2005, less than the 3.3% in 2004.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113e.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices also moderated in Slovakia, although it has a much more inflation-prone economy. The index was up 0.6% in December, putting the year at 3.7%, markedly less than the 6.0% in 2004. The slowing was widespread, but variable. Housing and related expenses, for instance, were up 10.8%, but this was not as much as 13.8% in 2004. Price categories that firmed did so by decreasing less than they had in 2004, including such basic items as clothing and furniture. Even transportation costs rose more slowly, 3.3% versus 5.7%.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113f.jpg" width="353">
2005 inflation picked up in two other countries, however, Spain and Finland. In Spain, the total CPI rose 0.3% in the month of December and 3.8% across 2005; the yearly rate was 0.6 percentage point more than in 2004. Higher energy costs were surely an ingredient, but core inflation also rose, from 2.7% in 2004 to 3.1% last year. Finland, characterized by low CPI inflation generally, nonetheless saw its pace more than double last year to 1.0% from 0.4% in 2004. This seems to have been concentrated in alcoholic beverage prices, which fell in 2004 and then stabilized in 2005; other categories had variable price performance.
In all of these cases, large economies and small, highly developed and transitioning from socialism, inflation rates are generally restrained. &quot;Inflation&quot; is defined as &quot;generalized&quot; price increases throughout an economy, but all four of these have uneven price behavior both across categories and across time. So inflation remained well under control in Europe through 2005, a remarkable development after two years of notable energy price increases, and in those using the euro, a weakening currency for much of that time. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/@GZ/@GZ5/@GZ501/@GZ501.HTM">CPI (% Change)</a> ( NSA except as noted)</th>
Month/Month
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Dec 2005</td>
<td>Nov 2005</td>
<td>Oct 2005</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France (Months SA)</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; ex Energy</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; ex Energy</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Finland</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Slovakia</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Inflation was modest across four European countries as 2005 ended, according to CPI data reported today. In France, the total index rose 0.2% in December from November and 1.5% from December 2004. This was even slower than the 2.1% in [...]

CPI Inflation Slows Further in France for December, Still Restrained in Spain, Finland and Slovakia

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113c.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose 0.5% in November. The gain followed a 0.4% October increase that was revised upward and it was squarely in the 0.4-0.5% range of the last four months. The increases raised slightly the ratio of inventories-to-sales back to 1.26, the 3Q average.
A 0.4% gain in inventories had been the Consensus expectation.
Retail inventories surged 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise during October. A 2.1% (-3.1% y/y) rise in motor vehicle inventories followed large additions during the prior three months. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.3% following an unrevised 0.1% fall during October. Clothing inventories fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y), offset by a 0.4% gain in furniture inventories (5.1% y/y). General merchandise inventories rose a modest 0.2% (4.8% y/y).
The 0.4% rise in wholesale inventories doubled the October increase. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of nonpetroleum goods.
Factory sector inventories rose just 0.2%, held back by a 3.2% decline in petroleum refineries&#39; inventories. Less petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total business inventories rose 0.5% in November. The gain followed a 0.4% October increase that was revised upward and it was squarely in the 0.4-0.5% range of the last four months. The increases raised slightly the ratio of [...]

U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Steady

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113b.jpg" width="353">
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods doubled Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase and posted a 0.9% gain in December. It was the strongest increase in four months and lifted the year to year rise to 4.9%, the strongest since 1990.
Energy prices rose a firm 3.1% (24.5% y/y) as gasoline prices reversed the prior month&#39;s decline and rose 12.3% (41.7% y/y). Home heating oil prices rose 2.7% (41.5% y/y) though residential natural gas prices slipped for the second month, down 2.7% (+29.2% y/y).
Strength in finished food prices accounted for much of last month&#39;s surprise. A 0.9% increase was the strongest since September but that lest the annual increase at 2.0%, less than half the 2004 rise.
&quot;Core&quot; producer prices rose the same 0.1% as during November and the gain was half the Consensus expectation for a 0.2% increase.
Prices of finished consumer goods less food &amp; energy rose a modest 0.1% (2.0% y/y). Durable goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital equipment prices rose for the first month in three by 0.1% (1.3% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices rose a modest 0.2% and core intermediate goods prices increased 0.3%, the slimmest increase since August.
Crude goods prices fell sharply for the second consecutive month. The 2.3% decline reflected a 5.4% (+44.8% y/y) decline in energy prices. Core crude prices also slipped marginally after the 5.4% in November. During the last thirty years &quot;core&quot; crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>21.7%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>26.6%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods doubled Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase and posted a 0.9% gain in December. It was the strongest increase in four months and lifted the year to year rise to 4.9%, the strongest [...]

PPI Rise Doubled Expectations

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales rose 0.7% last month following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in November. The increase, however, fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise. In addition, sales less autos rose just half the expected 0.4% and the m/m decline in November was revised slightly deeper.
Discretionary spending faltered. Apparel store sales fell marginally after a downwardly revised 0.1% November decline (+7.1% y/y). General merchandise store sales also fell by 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) while sales of furniture, electronics &amp; appliances were off 0.1% (+6.3% Y/Y). Sales at building material &amp; supply dealers declined 0.6% (+9.7% y/y).
Sales at gasoline stations increased 0.9% despite a 3.2% decline in pump prices. Gas prices in January have reversed that decline and moved higher by 4.4% versus December.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% (6.8% y/y), the weakest increase by far since July.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase during November.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US retail sales rose 0.7% last month following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in November. The increase, however, fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise. In addition, sales less autos rose just half the expected 0.4% [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Light in December

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales rose 0.7% last month following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in November. The increase, however, fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise. In addition, sales less autos rose just half the expected 0.4% and the m/m decline in November was revised slightly deeper.
Discretionary spending faltered. Apparel store sales fell marginally after a downwardly revised 0.1% November decline (+7.1% y/y). General merchandise store sales also fell by 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) while sales of furniture, electronics &amp; appliances were off 0.1% (+6.3% Y/Y). Sales at building material &amp; supply dealers declined 0.6% (+9.7% y/y).
Sales at gasoline stations increased 0.9% despite a 3.2% decline in pump prices. Gas prices in January have reversed that decline and moved higher by 4.4% versus December.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% (6.8% y/y), the weakest increase by far since July.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase during November.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
PPI Rise Doubled Expectations 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 13, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113b.jpg" width="353">
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods doubled Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase and posted a 0.9% gain in December. It was the strongest increase in four months and lifted the year to year rise to 4.9%, the strongest since 1990.
Energy prices rose a firm 3.1% (24.5% y/y) as gasoline prices reversed the prior month&#39;s decline and rose 12.3% (41.7% y/y). Home heating oil prices rose 2.7% (41.5% y/y) though residential natural gas prices slipped for the second month, down 2.7% (+29.2% y/y).
Strength in finished food prices accounted for much of last month&#39;s surprise. A 0.9% increase was the strongest since September but that lest the annual increase at 2.0%, less than half the 2004 rise.
&quot;Core&quot; producer prices rose the same 0.1% as during November and the gain was half the Consensus expectation for a 0.2% increase.
Prices of finished consumer goods less food &amp; energy rose a modest 0.1% (2.0% y/y). Durable goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Capital equipment prices rose for the first month in three by 0.1% (1.3% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices rose a modest 0.2% and core intermediate goods prices increased 0.3%, the slimmest increase since August.
Crude goods prices fell sharply for the second consecutive month. The 2.3% decline reflected a 5.4% (+44.8% y/y) decline in energy prices. Core crude prices also slipped marginally after the 5.4% in November. During the last thirty years &quot;core&quot; crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>21.7%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>26.6%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Steady 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 13, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113c.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose 0.5% in November. The gain followed a 0.4% October increase that was revised upward and it was squarely in the 0.4-0.5% range of the last four months. The increases raised slightly the ratio of inventories-to-sales back to 1.26, the 3Q average.
A 0.4% gain in inventories had been the Consensus expectation.
Retail inventories surged 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise during October. A 2.1% (-3.1% y/y) rise in motor vehicle inventories followed large additions during the prior three months. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.3% following an unrevised 0.1% fall during October. Clothing inventories fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y), offset by a 0.4% gain in furniture inventories (5.1% y/y). General merchandise inventories rose a modest 0.2% (4.8% y/y).
The 0.4% rise in wholesale inventories doubled the October increase. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of nonpetroleum goods.
Factory sector inventories rose just 0.2%, held back by a 3.2% decline in petroleum refineries&#39; inventories. Less petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
CPI Inflation Slows Further in France for December, Still Restrained in Spain, Finland and Slovakia 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 13, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113d.jpg" width="353">
Inflation was modest across four European countries as 2005 ended, according to CPI data reported today. In France, the total index rose 0.2% in December from November and 1.5% from December 2004. This was even slower than the 2.1% in 2004. France&#39;s CPI excluding energy slowed for the year by a similar amount, to 1.1% from 1.5% across 2004. The slowing is concentrated in manufactured products, for which prices fell more than in 2004, and even in services, which rose 2.8% across 2005, less than the 3.3% in 2004.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113e.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices also moderated in Slovakia, although it has a much more inflation-prone economy. The index was up 0.6% in December, putting the year at 3.7%, markedly less than the 6.0% in 2004. The slowing was widespread, but variable. Housing and related expenses, for instance, were up 10.8%, but this was not as much as 13.8% in 2004. Price categories that firmed did so by decreasing less than they had in 2004, including such basic items as clothing and furniture. Even transportation costs rose more slowly, 3.3% versus 5.7%.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060113f.jpg" width="353">
2005 inflation picked up in two other countries, however, Spain and Finland. In Spain, the total CPI rose 0.3% in the month of December and 3.8% across 2005; the yearly rate was 0.6 percentage point more than in 2004. Higher energy costs were surely an ingredient, but core inflation also rose, from 2.7% in 2004 to 3.1% last year. Finland, characterized by low CPI inflation generally, nonetheless saw its pace more than double last year to 1.0% from 0.4% in 2004. This seems to have been concentrated in alcoholic beverage prices, which fell in 2004 and then stabilized in 2005; other categories had variable price performance.
In all of these cases, large economies and small, highly developed and transitioning from socialism, inflation rates are generally restrained. &quot;Inflation&quot; is defined as &quot;generalized&quot; price increases throughout an economy, but all four of these have uneven price behavior both across categories and across time. So inflation remained well under control in Europe through 2005, a remarkable development after two years of notable energy price increases, and in those using the euro, a weakening currency for much of that time. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/@GZ/@GZ5/@GZ501/@GZ501.HTM">CPI (% Change)</a> ( NSA except as noted)</th>
Month/Month
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Dec 2005</td>
<td>Nov 2005</td>
<td>Oct 2005</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France (Months SA)</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; ex Energy</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; ex Energy</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Finland</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Slovakia</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060112f.jpg" width="353">
In December, employment in Australia rose a mere 2,100, and the unemployment rate was unchanged from November at 5.1%. Forecasts cited in one news service survey had looked for a 9,000 gain in employment and the 5.1% unemployment rate, so this report was disappointing, but only mildly so.
We last discussed Australian the labor market in September, covering August data. At that time, employment in Australia had risen continuously for a year, an extraordinary development in that economy, which generally shows more month-to-month variability. That variation appeared again immediately, as September&#39;s jobs fell by 42,400. October&#39;s fell again, as seen in the table below, but there was some gain in November before December&#39;s miniscule rise. Overall, though, 2005 put in a strong performance: the average number of people with jobs expanded 305,000, the largest annual gain since 1995.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060112g.jpg" width="353">
The job slowdown since the August peak has been accounted for almost entirely among male employees, 30,600 of whom lost jobs over the last four months. Female employees edged down only 1,300 on balance, with a decline in September and three monthly increases subsequently.
At the same time, the total unemployment rate touched a record low of 5.0% in August. The hesitation in employment over the last few months lifted the jobless rate to 5.2% in October, and it ended the year at 5.1%. The participation rate also edged off its record high of 64.8% in August, settling at 64.4% at year-end.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A106/@A106.HTM">Australia</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
Annual Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment (thous)</td>
<td>10,033</td>
<td>10,031</td>
<td>10,002</td>
<td>9,822</td>
<td>9,987</td>
<td>9,682</td>
<td>9,482</td>
<td>8,989</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Monthly Change (thous/%)</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.1*</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%)</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>64.3</td>
<td>63.8</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>63.6</td>
<td>63.6</td>
<td>63.7**</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>6.0**</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

In December, employment in Australia rose a mere 2,100, and the unemployment rate was unchanged from November at 5.1%. Forecasts cited in one news service survey had looked for a 9,000 gain in employment and the 5.1% unemployment [...]

Australian Employment Performance Hesitates at End-2005 After Potent Gains in Earlier Months

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Robert Brusca

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: January 2006

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