Global| Jan 13 2006U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.5% in November. The gain followed a 0.4% October increase that was revised upward and it was squarely in the 0.4-0.5% range of the last four months. The increases raised slightly the ratio of [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.5% in November. The gain followed a 0.4% October increase that was revised upward and it was squarely in the 0.4-0.5% range of the last four months. The increases raised slightly the ratio of inventories-to-sales back to 1.26, the 3Q average.
A 0.4% gain in inventories had been the Consensus expectation.
Retail inventories surged 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise during October. A 2.1% (-3.1% y/y) rise in motor vehicle inventories followed large additions during the prior three months. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.3% following an unrevised 0.1% fall during October. Clothing inventories fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y), offset by a 0.4% gain in furniture inventories (5.1% y/y). General merchandise inventories rose a modest 0.2% (4.8% y/y).
The 0.4% rise in wholesale inventories doubled the October increase. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of nonpetroleum goods.
Factory sector inventories rose just 0.2%, held back by a 3.2% decline in petroleum refineries' inventories. Less petroleum, factory inventories rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y).
| Business Inventories | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.3% | -0.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.4% | 0.2% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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