Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050113g.jpg" width="353">
Import prices fell 1.3% last month due to sharply lower prices for petroleum. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.4% decline. Nonpetroleum prices, however, rose 0.5% and raised the y/y increase to 3.8%, its highest since 1995.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 55% correlation between the level of the dollar and the y/y change in nonpetroleum import prices.
Import pricing strength in December was most pronounced for foods, feeds &amp; beverages which rose 1.0% (7.8% y/y). Gains elsewhere were more moderate, but up moderately from earlier lows. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050113h.jpg" width="353">
Capital goods prices rose 0.3% and the y/y change rose to -0.9% versus earlier 2% to 8% rates of decline. Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.5% and the y/y gain of 1.9% compared to price deflation of 1.9% in 2002 and of 4.2% during 1997. Non-auto consumer goods import prices rose 0.3% and the y/y change rose to 0.7% versus a peak rate of decline of 1.6% in early 2002.
Petroleum prices fell 1.5% as the price of Brent crude oil fell to $39.12 in December. It rose to $43.16 last week.
Export prices rose 0.2%. Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.1% (4.9% y/y).

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>-11.5%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>30.8%</td>
<td>30.6%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
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</tbody>
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Import prices fell 1.3% last month due to sharply lower prices for petroleum. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.4% decline. Nonpetroleum prices, however, rose 0.5% and raised the y/y increase to 3.8%, its highest since 1995. [...]

Import Prices Lower With Petroleum, Non Oil Prices Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050113b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 to 367,000 last week but the sharp gain the prior week was lessened slightly to 35,000. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 340,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 344,000 (-3.6% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell a huge 219,000 following an upwardly revised 71,000 increase the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.1% from an upwardly revised 2.3% the week prior.
&quot;Why Are Married Women Working More? Some Macroeconomic Explanations&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/br/brq404ak.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/08/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/01/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>367</td>
<td>357</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,631</td>
<td>-17.3%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 to 367,000 last week but the sharp gain the prior week was lessened slightly to 35,000. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 340,000 claims. The four week moving [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112c.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s trade situation improved in November, as a small decrease in exports was well overweighted with a 10.1% drop in imports. The consequent balance of merchandise trade was a surplus Can$7.3 billion, the third largest on record. In US$, the surplus pierced US$6 billion, the largest ever.
Exports fell 2.9%, with moderate reductions in several types of products. By geography, the largest absolute drop occurred in shipments to the US, but percentage-wise, shipments to Europe were off by more than 10% on the month.
The drop in imports featured sizable declines &#150; 10% or more &#150; in a variety of product-types. Among regions, the US and Europe both had double-digit declines in sales to Canada.
Part of the drop in imports is a continuing correction to sizable increases that pushed the Canadian-dollar value of imports to a record Can$31.8 billion in both May and July. But Canadian statistics officials pointed out today that the November performance accompanied a marked increase in the exchange rate; this was 4.2% in November alone in US$/Can$ terms, extending a rise that totaled 15% since May. As clearly evident in the graph, the value of Canada&#39;s imports has a remarkable relationship with the exchange rate. Percent changes in the rate (shown here in the reciprocal Can$/US$) have a substantial 86% correlation with the monthly change in the difference of imports measured in Can$ less imports measured in US$. Trade with the US of course dominates Canadian trade (imports from the US are about two-thirds of Canada&#39;s total) and this tight currency value relationship highlights how strong that bond is, even on a month-to-month basis.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Billions of Canadian$, Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
Monthly Average
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<td class="firstcol">2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>34.7</td>
<td>35.7</td>
<td>+8.6%</td>
<td>33.3</td>
<td>34.5</td>
<td>35.1</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>30.5</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>28.5</td>
<td>29.7</td>
<td>29.2</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Balance</td>
<td>+7.3</td>
<td>+5.2</td>
<td>+4.1</td>
<td>+4.8</td>
<td>+4.8</td>
<td>+5.8</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance, US$</td>
<td>+6.1</td>
<td>+4.2</td>
<td>+3.1</td>
<td>+3.5</td>
<td>+3.0</td>
<td>+3.8</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Exchange Rate, US$/CAN$</td>
<td>0.8356</td>
<td>0.8020</td>
<td>+9.7%</td>
<td>0.7157</td>
<td>0.6368</td>
<td>0.6457</td>
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</tbody>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Billions of Canadian$, Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
Monthly Average
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>34.7</td>
<td>35.7</td>
<td>+8.6%</td>
<td>33.3</td>
<td>34.5</td>
<td>35.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>30.5</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>28.5</td>
<td>29.7</td>
<td>29.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance</td>
<td>+7.3</td>
<td>+5.2</td>
<td>+4.1</td>
<td>+4.8</td>
<td>+4.8</td>
<td>+5.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance, US$</td>
<td>+6.1</td>
<td>+4.2</td>
<td>+3.1</td>
<td>+3.5</td>
<td>+3.0</td>
<td>+3.8</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Exchange Rate, US$/CAN$</td>
<td>0.8356</td>
<td>0.8020</td>
<td>+9.7%</td>
<td>0.7157</td>
<td>0.6368</td>
<td>0.6457</td>
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Canada's trade situation improved in November, as a small decrease in exports was well overweighted with a 10.1% drop in imports. The consequent balance of merchandise trade was a surplus Can$7.3 billion, the third largest on record. [...]

Canada's Trade Surplus Widens in November

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112b.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications dropped last week for the fourth week in the last five according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. The 3.0% w/w decline was on the heels of a 10.6% plunge during the last week of 2004.
Applications to purchase slide another 5.8% after dropping 13.7% the prior week. The level of purchase applications began the new year 16.4% below the December average which fell 0.3% from November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Refi&#39;s recovered a modest 1.1% w/w after dropping 13.1% during the prior two weeks combined.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose slightly to 5.97% versus an average 6.05% during 2004. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.50% last week versus the 2004 average of 5.47%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>587.8</td>
<td>605.7</td>
<td>-16.3%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>393.1</td>
<td>417.3</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,720.5</td>
<td>1,701.3</td>
<td>-21.6%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
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Mortgage applications dropped last week for the fourth week in the last five according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. The 3.0% w/w decline was on the heels of a 10.6% plunge during the last week of 2004. [...]

Total Mortgage Applications Off Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112a.jpg" width="353">
A surprising 2.3% drop in exports caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen sharply to $60.3B in November, by far a new record. Consensus expectations had been for a narrowing to $54.0B versus October&#39;s revised figure of $56.0B.
Goods exports, off 3.8%, fell across the board. A 5.1% (-0.7% y/y) decline in capital goods exports reflected sharp declines in exports of most types of machinery. Computer exports fell as well by 5.5% (+3.7% y/y) and exports of civilian aircraft plunged 8.4% (-34.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports were led 2.6% lower (+7.6% y/y) by steep declines in exports of appliances, furniture and apparel. Exports of food &amp; beverages (-7.1% Y/Y) and industrial supplies +17.0% y/y) also were off sharply. The only major category to show an increase was &quot;other goods&quot;, up 7.2% m/m.
Services exports rose 1.4% (7.2% y/y) due to increased travel and passenger fares.
Total imports rose 1.3% m/m though gains were mixed across categories. Imports of food as well as industrial supplies rose but capital goods imports fell 0.4% (+15.7% y/y) and automotive vehicles were off 2.3% (+4.7% y/y).
Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 0.6% (+14.7% y/y) while imports of petroleum surged 11.8% (79.0% y/y). The value of energy related petroleum products fell with lower oil prices but quantities rose (19.3% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved slightly to $16.6B ($124.1B in 2003) but the US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $7.3B ($66.0B in 2003) as did the deficit with the Asian NICs to $3.1B ($21.2B in 2003). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $10.5B ($97.9B in 2003).
&quot;To Float or Not to Float? Exchange Rate Regimes and Shocks&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be viewed <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-01.pdf"> here</a>.
&quot;U.S.&#150;Mexico Trade: Are We Still Connected?&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/research/busfront/bus0403a.html"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$60.3B</td>
<td>$56.0B</td>
<td>$40.0B (11/03)</td>
<td>$496.5B</td>
<td>$421.7B</td>
<td>$362.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
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</tbody>
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A surprising 2.3% drop in exports caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen sharply to $60.3B in November, by far a new record. Consensus expectations had been for a narrowing to $54.0B versus October's revised figure of $56.0B. [...]

Lower Exports Dropped U.S. Trade Deficit To Another Record

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112a.jpg" width="353">
A surprising 2.3% drop in exports caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen sharply to $60.3B in November, by far a new record. Consensus expectations had been for a narrowing to $54.0B versus October&#39;s revised figure of $56.0B.
Goods exports, off 3.8%, fell across the board. A 5.1% (-0.7% y/y) decline in capital goods exports reflected sharp declines in exports of most types of machinery. Computer exports fell as well by 5.5% (+3.7% y/y) and exports of civilian aircraft plunged 8.4% (-34.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports were led 2.6% lower (+7.6% y/y) by steep declines in exports of appliances, furniture and apparel. Exports of food &amp; beverages (-7.1% Y/Y) and industrial supplies +17.0% y/y) also were off sharply. The only major category to show an increase was &quot;other goods&quot;, up 7.2% m/m.
Services exports rose 1.4% (7.2% y/y) due to increased travel and passenger fares.
Total imports rose 1.3% m/m though gains were mixed across categories. Imports of food as well as industrial supplies rose but capital goods imports fell 0.4% (+15.7% y/y) and automotive vehicles were off 2.3% (+4.7% y/y).
Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 0.6% (+14.7% y/y) while imports of petroleum surged 11.8% (79.0% y/y). The value of energy related petroleum products fell with lower oil prices but quantities rose (19.3% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved slightly to $16.6B ($124.1B in 2003) but the US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $7.3B ($66.0B in 2003) as did the deficit with the Asian NICs to $3.1B ($21.2B in 2003). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $10.5B ($97.9B in 2003).
&quot;To Float or Not to Float? Exchange Rate Regimes and Shocks&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be viewed <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-01.pdf"> here</a>.
&quot;U.S.&#150;Mexico Trade: Are We Still Connected?&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/research/busfront/bus0403a.html"> here</a>.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$60.3B</td>
<td>$56.0B</td>
<td>$40.0B (11/03)</td>
<td>$496.5B</td>
<td>$421.7B</td>
<td>$362.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Total Mortgage Applications Off Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050112b.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications dropped last week for the fourth week in the last five according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. The 3.0% w/w decline was on the heels of a 10.6% plunge during the last week of 2004.
Applications to purchase slide another 5.8% after dropping 13.7% the prior week. The level of purchase applications began the new year 16.4% below the December average which fell 0.3% from November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Refi&#39;s recovered a modest 1.1% w/w after dropping 13.1% during the prior two weeks combined.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose slightly to 5.97% versus an average 6.05% during 2004. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.50% last week versus the 2004 average of 5.47%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>587.8</td>
<td>605.7</td>
<td>-16.3%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>393.1</td>
<td>417.3</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,720.5</td>
<td>1,701.3</td>
<td>-21.6%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050111b.jpg" width="353">
The January ZEW indicator of analysts&#39; and institutional investors&#39; confidence in Germany&#39;s economic prospects showed a significant rise from December. The optimists outweighed the pessimists by 26.9% in January, compared with a balance of 14.4% in December. The figure is, however, 46 percentage points below that of January 2004.
Although analysts&#39; and institutional investors&#39; confidence is still below the long run median value of 35, the January rise, following one in December is encouraging. The ZEW measure is based on a small sample of 305 participants and it often anticipates changes in the broader IFO measure which is scheduled to be released later this month. The IFO index (2000=100) was 96.2 in December, 2.2% above November.
As Carol Stone pointed out last week, commentators tends to highlight a particular reason for changes in confidence. Last week it was strength in the euro that was a factor in the loss of confidence in the Euro-Zone. This week it is the decline in the price of oil and the impression that Christmas retail sales were better than expected--hard data are not yet available--that are responsible for the January rise in the ZEW measure.
The relation of the price of oil to confidence is shown in the attached chart. While over time, there is only a weak relationship, when the price of oil changes significantly, either up or down, it appears to have an impact on the state of confidence with a rise dampening, and a fall increasing, confidence.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 05</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">ZEW (Percent balance)</td>
<td>26.9</td>
<td>14.4</td>
<td>72.9</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>-46.0</td>
<td>44.6</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec 04</td>
<td>Nov 04</td>
<td>Oct 04</td>
<td>Sep 04</td>
<td>Aug 04</td>
<td>July 04</td>
<td>Jun 04</td>
<td>May 04</td>
<td>Apr 04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Monthly Average Price of Oil--Brent Crude ($/bbl).</td>
<td>39.12</td>
<td>43.23</td>
<td>49.73</td>
<td>43.42</td>
<td>42.65</td>
<td>38.02</td>
<td>35.32</td>
<td>36.87</td>
<td>33.16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The January ZEW indicator of analysts' and institutional investors' confidence in Germany's economic prospects showed a significant rise from December. The optimists outweighed the pessimists by 26.9% in January, compared with a [...]

German Analysts' and Institutional Investors' Confidence Measure (ZEW Index) Makes a Significant Rise

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050111a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 0.6% last week following four successive weeks of gain, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline may have been prompted by several weather factors including unseasonably warmer temperatures nationwide, snowstorms, and heavy rainfall in Southern California. Nevertheless, sales began January 2.0% above the December average.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell a sharp 1.6% in the latest week (-0.6% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The speech given by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. titled &quot;Interpreting Labor Market Statistics in the Context of Monetary Policy&quot; is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200501072/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/08/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/01/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>447.9</td>
<td>450.8</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</body>
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Chain store sales fell 0.6% last week following four successive weeks of gain, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline may have been prompted by several weather factors including [...]

Heavy Weather Pushed Chain Store Sales Lower

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Robert Brusca

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: January 2005

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Import Prices Lower With Petroleum, Non Oil Prices Firm

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Lower Exports Dropped U.S. Trade Deficit To Another Record

Lower Exports Dropped U.S. Trade Deficit To Another Record

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