Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517g.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell a sharp 1.0% last week following the 0.7% surge which opened the month of May, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales in May nevertheless remained 0.9% above the April average which rose 0.6% from March.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in early May and reversed all of the prior week&#39;s decline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>456.7</td>
<td>461.4</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
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Chain store sales fell a sharp 1.0% last week following the 0.7% surge which opened the month of May, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales in May nevertheless remained 0.9% above the [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517f.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production fell 0.2% in April following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. Lower utility output accounted for all of the decline as it fell 2.3% (0.7% y/y) for the third decline this year.
Factory sector output recovered 0.1% (3.5% y/y) of a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in March. Excluding the high tech sector where output rose 1.8% (20.3% y/y) factory output fell for the second month, down 0.1% (+2.5% y/y). During 2004 factory output less high tech rose 3.9%.
Production of electrical equipment, appliances &amp; components rose 0.2% after a downwardly revised 1.0% March increase, but the y/y gain of 2.0% was well off the 6.2% pace of 2004. Machinery output also rose a firm 1.3% but here as well the y/y growth of 6.3% is about last year&#39;s increase.
Total capacity utilization slipped to 79.2% and capacity grew 1.2% y/y. Factory sector utilization also slipped to 77.9% and capacity rose 1.3% y/y.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-7.9%</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>79.2%</td>
<td>79.4%</td>
<td>77.7% (04/04)</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.3%</td>
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Industrial production fell 0.2% in April following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. Lower utility output accounted for all of the decline as it fell 2.3% (0.7% y/y) for the [...]

Industrial Production Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517e.jpg" width="353">
The May National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index recovered all of the prior month&#39;s sharp drop and rose to 70.
During the last twenty years, annual changes in the composite index had an 83% correlation with the change in new home sales. There&#39;s been an 86% correlation with the change in single family housing starts.
All of the index components improved in May though the index of expected sales in six months by just 1.3%.
Traffic of prospective home buyers rose to the highest level this year.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org"> National Association of Home Builders</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a> </th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">May &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>61</td>
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The May National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index recovered all of the prior month's sharp drop and rose to 70. During the last twenty years, annual changes in the composite index had an 83% [...]

NAHB Housing Market Index Recovered

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rebounded 11.0% in April and recovered about half of the prior month&#39;s unrevised 17.6% decline.The rise to 2.038M exceeded Consensus expectations for 1.97M starts. Figures were revised back to 2003.
Single-family starts gained back just a piece of the prior month&#39;s sharp decline with a 6.3% m/m rise. All of the rise was due to a 21.1% (11.4% y/y) increase in the South while single family starts in the Northeast dropped for the third month this year (-12.9% y/y). Single family starts in the Midwest fell 7.6% (-19.1% y/y) and starts in the West were off 4.7% but still up 1.0% y/y.
Multi family starts gained back most of the prior moth&#39;s skid with a 35.2% rise.
Building permits rose 5.3%. This first increase in three months was nearly back to the record high.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>2,038</td>
<td>1,836</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>1,950</td>
<td>1,854</td>
<td>1,7 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,635</td>
<td>1,538</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1,604</td>
<td>1,505</td>
<td>1,363</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>403</td>
<td>298</td>
<td>17.3%</td>
<td>345</td>
<td>349</td>
<td>347</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>2,129</td>
<td>2,021</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2,058</td>
<td>1,8 88</td>
<td>1,749</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Housing starts rebounded 11.0% in April and recovered about half of the prior month's unrevised 17.6% decline.The rise to 2.038M exceeded Consensus expectations for 1.97M starts. Figures were revised back to 2003. Single-family starts [...]

Housing Starts Rebounded

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517b.jpg" width="353">
The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.6% last month and again surpassed Consensus expectations which had been for a 0.4% increase. Excluding food &amp; energy the PPI rose 0.3% in April, up sharply from the 0.1% gains during the prior two month&#39;s and also beat Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Prices for finished consumer goods less food &amp; energy rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y), up from a 0.1% increase in March. Consumer durable goods prices increased 0.3% (1.9% y/y) following two months of decline as household appliance prices rose (2.0% y/y) along with furniture prices (3.8% y/y).
Capital goods prices increased for the second month (2.8% y/y) though computer prices continued to fall (-18.7% y/y) as did prices for light trucks (-0.5% y/y).
Finished energy prices jumped for the third consecutive month. The 2.1% (15.7% y/y) increase was led by higher prices for gasoline (28.9% y/y) and fuel oil (51.1% y/y). Finished food prices ticked up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) last month.
Intermediate goods prices again were strong, posting a 0.8% advance which reflected a 3.4% (18.8% y/y) spike in energy prices but the 0.2% monthly increase in core intermediate prices was the most moderate since 2003.
Crude prices surged another 2.7% again on the strength of energy prices, up 7.2% (32.6% y/y). The 0.8% gain in core crude prices was the second month of strength and reflected a 17.1% y/y gain in copper scrap, an 8.3% y/y increase in aluminum scrap and a 4.3% y/y rise in iron &amp; steel scrap. During the last thirty years &quot;core&quot; crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>26.6%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.6% last month and again surpassed Consensus expectations which had been for a 0.4% increase. Excluding food & energy the PPI rose 0.3% in April, up sharply from the 0.1% gains during [...]

PPI Gains Broad

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517b.jpg" width="353">
The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.6% last month and again surpassed Consensus expectations which had been for a 0.4% increase. Excluding food &amp; energy the PPI rose 0.3% in April, up sharply from the 0.1% gains during the prior two month&#39;s and also beat Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Prices for finished consumer goods less food &amp; energy rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y), up from a 0.1% increase in March. Consumer durable goods prices increased 0.3% (1.9% y/y) following two months of decline as household appliance prices rose (2.0% y/y) along with furniture prices (3.8% y/y).
Capital goods prices increased for the second month (2.8% y/y) though computer prices continued to fall (-18.7% y/y) as did prices for light trucks (-0.5% y/y).
Finished energy prices jumped for the third consecutive month. The 2.1% (15.7% y/y) increase was led by higher prices for gasoline (28.9% y/y) and fuel oil (51.1% y/y). Finished food prices ticked up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) last month.
Intermediate goods prices again were strong, posting a 0.8% advance which reflected a 3.4% (18.8% y/y) spike in energy prices but the 0.2% monthly increase in core intermediate prices was the most moderate since 2003.
Crude prices surged another 2.7% again on the strength of energy prices, up 7.2% (32.6% y/y). The 0.8% gain in core crude prices was the second month of strength and reflected a 17.1% y/y gain in copper scrap, an 8.3% y/y increase in aluminum scrap and a 4.3% y/y rise in iron &amp; steel scrap. During the last thirty years &quot;core&quot; crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>26.6%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Housing Starts Rebounded 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rebounded 11.0% in April and recovered about half of the prior month&#39;s unrevised 17.6% decline.The rise to 2.038M exceeded Consensus expectations for 1.97M starts. Figures were revised back to 2003.
Single-family starts gained back just a piece of the prior month&#39;s sharp decline with a 6.3% m/m rise. All of the rise was due to a 21.1% (11.4% y/y) increase in the South while single family starts in the Northeast dropped for the third month this year (-12.9% y/y). Single family starts in the Midwest fell 7.6% (-19.1% y/y) and starts in the West were off 4.7% but still up 1.0% y/y.
Multi family starts gained back most of the prior moth&#39;s skid with a 35.2% rise.
Building permits rose 5.3%. This first increase in three months was nearly back to the record high.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>2,038</td>
<td>1,836</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>1,950</td>
<td>1,854</td>
<td>1,7 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,635</td>
<td>1,538</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1,604</td>
<td>1,505</td>
<td>1,363</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>403</td>
<td>298</td>
<td>17.3%</td>
<td>345</td>
<td>349</td>
<td>347</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>2,129</td>
<td>2,021</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2,058</td>
<td>1,8 88</td>
<td>1,749</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
NAHB Housing Market Index Recovered 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517e.jpg" width="353">
The May National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index recovered all of the prior month&#39;s sharp drop and rose to 70.
During the last twenty years, annual changes in the composite index had an 83% correlation with the change in new home sales. There&#39;s been an 86% correlation with the change in single family housing starts.
All of the index components improved in May though the index of expected sales in six months by just 1.3%.
Traffic of prospective home buyers rose to the highest level this year.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org"> National Association of Home Builders</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a> </th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">May &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>61</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517f.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production fell 0.2% in April following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. Lower utility output accounted for all of the decline as it fell 2.3% (0.7% y/y) for the third decline this year.
Factory sector output recovered 0.1% (3.5% y/y) of a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in March. Excluding the high tech sector where output rose 1.8% (20.3% y/y) factory output fell for the second month, down 0.1% (+2.5% y/y). During 2004 factory output less high tech rose 3.9%.
Production of electrical equipment, appliances &amp; components rose 0.2% after a downwardly revised 1.0% March increase, but the y/y gain of 2.0% was well off the 6.2% pace of 2004. Machinery output also rose a firm 1.3% but here as well the y/y growth of 6.3% is about last year&#39;s increase.
Total capacity utilization slipped to 79.2% and capacity grew 1.2% y/y. Factory sector utilization also slipped to 77.9% and capacity rose 1.3% y/y.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-7.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>79.2%</td>
<td>79.4%</td>
<td>77.7% (04/04)</td>
<td>78.1%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517g.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell a sharp 1.0% last week following the 0.7% surge which opened the month of May, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales in May nevertheless remained 0.9% above the April average which rose 0.6% from March.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in early May and reversed all of the prior week&#39;s decline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>456.7</td>
<td>461.4</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan's Real GDP Strong in First Quarter,2005: Deflation Still a Problem 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> May 17, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517h.jpg" width="353">
The first quarter preliminary report for Japan&#39;s Real Gross Domestic Product released today was surprisingly good. GDP increased at annual rate of 5.3%. Last year also started out with a bang--a slightly larger increase, 5.6%-- but this was followed by declines of 0.83% and 1.04% in the second and third quarters and a minimal increase of 0.06% in the fourth quarter.
The composition of this year&#39;s first quarter increase is significantly different from that of last year&#39;s (See table below) and suggests that the outlook may be more promising. Although private inventory accumulation accounted for almost one-third of the increases in both years, there were encouraging shifts from the public to the private sector in the remaining two-thirds of the increase. Household consumption accounted for 49% of the total increase in 2005, up from 27.1% in 2004, while government consumption went from 17.2% to 10.1%. Private gross fixed investment accounted for 8.2% of the increase in the first quarter of 2005 in contrast to a negative impact of 26.6% in 2004, while public gross fixed investment dropped to 5.8% from a 33.3% contribution in 2004.
These increases in the private domestic sector&#39;s contribution to growth were all the more impressive in view of negative impact of the external sector. Net exports of goods and services were a drag on growth in 2005 of almost 6% whereas they contributed 19% to growth in 2004.
While the increase in activity in the private domestic sector is encouraging, deflation remains a stubborn problem. The non seasonally adjusted chain-linked GDP deflator in the first quarter of 2005 was 1.2% below the comparable figure of a year ago. There is, however, some evidence that prices at the wholesale level are beginning to move up and may eventually lead to price rises at the consumer level. Japan&#39;s Corporate Goods Price Index released yesterday, showed a year to year increase of 3.3% in April. The index has shown increases since May of 2004, the first sustained rise since the late nineties. The attached chart shows the year-to-year changes in this index together with the year-to-year changes in the chain linked GDP deflator.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Fourth to First Quarter Change&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005 Bil. Yen</th>
<th scope="col">2004 Bil. Yen</th>
<th scope="col">2005 %</th>
<th scope="col">2004 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Household Consumption</td>
<td>3416.0</td>
<td>1958.2</td>
<td>49.2</td>
<td>27.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Government Consumption</td>
<td>699.9</td>
<td>1250.5</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>17.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Private Gross Fixed Invest.</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>-1.957.7</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>-26.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Public Gross Fixed Invest.</td>
<td>404.8</td>
<td>2432.1</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>33.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Private Inventory Change</td>
<td>2312.0</td>
<td>2207.6</td>
<td>33.3</td>
<td>30.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Public Inventory Change</td>
<td>-48.9</td>
<td>68.4</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Exports of Goods and Services</td>
<td>-412.4</td>
<td>1389.0</td>
<td>-5.9</td>
<td>19.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total of Items Listed*</td>
<td>6942.6</td>
<td>7348.1</td>
<td>100.0</td>
<td>100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Change in GDP</td>
<td>6950.2</td>
<td>7267.6</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517d.jpg" width="353">
China&#39;s balance of trade, which had risen sharply during 2004 and into January of this year, has begun to moderate. The April balance was $7,259 million compared to $7,974 in March and the peak of $11,443 reached in January. China&#39;s balance of trade in goods is shown in the first chart. Trade balances among countries are not yet available for April. Changes from February to March are shown in the following table. During the month of March, China&#39;s balance of trade with the U. S., Japan, Korea and Taiwan improved but deteriorated with the Euro Area it deteriorated.
In spite of the rise in the balance of trade in 2004, the largest yearly balance of trade was reached back in 1998. At that time the balance was $43,476 million compared with $32,868 in 2004. The direction of trade has changed markedly since then. The table below lists the balances of trade with selected areas and countries and the changes between 1998 and 2004. By far the largest change has taken place in the China-US trade, where China&#39;s surplus in the balance of trade has increased by $59,358 million from $20,968 million in 1998 to $80,321 million in 2004. The second chart compares China&#39;s total balance of trade with that for the United States. Over this period, China also improved its surplus with Europe from $7,085 million to $33, 648 million. Offsetting the increases in surpluses with the U. S. and Europe were the increases in deficits with Asian countries and Latin America. (Note: Data for Latin America were taken from the IMFDOT data base, which has much more country detail than the China data base in EMERGEPR)<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050517c.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMERGEPR/@P1/@P1.HTM">China</a> Millions of US$</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 05</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 05</th>
<th scope="col">Feb&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M chg</th>
<th scope="col">2004- 1998</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;1998</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Trade Balance</td>
<td>7259</td>
<td>7974</td>
<td>4877</td>
<td>2097</td>
<td>-10608</td>
<td>32868</td>
<td>25558</td>
<td>30426</td>
<td>43476</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance with U. S.</td>
<td></td>
<td>9228</td>
<td>8363</td>
<td>865</td>
<td>59358</td>
<td>80321</td>
<td>58627</td>
<td>42732</td>
<td>20968</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Europe</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>4353</td>
<td>5485</td>
<td>-1131</td>
<td>26563</td>
<td>33648</td>
<td>18461</td>
<td>5770</td>
<td>7085</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Japan</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>-882</td>
<td>-1547</td>
<td>665</td>
<td>-21966</td>
<td>-20655</td>
<td>-14750</td>
<td>-5006</td>
<td>1311</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Korea</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>-3081</td>
<td>-3780</td>
<td>699</td>
<td>-24941</td>
<td>-34356</td>
<td>-23056</td>
<td>-13073</td>
<td>-9415</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Taiwan</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>-4321</td>
<td>-4690</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>-38385</td>
<td>-51212</td>
<td>-31493</td>
<td>-22338</td>
<td>-12827</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Latin America</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>-6879</td>
<td>-4615</td>
<td>-3218</td>
<td>928</td>
<td>2264</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

China's balance of trade, which had risen sharply during 2004 and into January of this year, has begun to moderate. The April balance was $7,259 million compared to $7,974 in March and the peak of $11,443 reached in January. China's [...]

China' Trade in Goods: Changes in Direction

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050516a.jpg" width="353">
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York&#39;s manufacturing industries went negative in May for the first month since April 2003. The decline to -11.11 followed a year of weakening versus the peak in February 2004 and April&#39;s level was revised down.
The new orders component dropped further into negative territory but the shipments index was slightly positive. The employment index fell to its lowest since September 2003 and the barely positive reading indicated little if any job growth. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
The prices paid index slipped further to the lowest level since last February.
Expectations for business conditions in six months fell further and indicated the most pessimism since 2001. Expectations for future capital spending fell hard for the third month in the last five and the average level this year is below 2004.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/regional_economy/empiresurvey_overview.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S511/@S511.HTM">Empire State Manufacturing Survey</a> </th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">May &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Business Conditions (diffusion index)</td>
<td>-11.11</td>
<td>2.03</td>
<td>31.01</td>
<td>28.76</td>
<td>16.17</td>
<td>7.19</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions in New York's manufacturing industries went negative in May for the first month since April 2003. The decline to -11.11 followed a year of weakening versus the peak in February [...]

Empire State Index Negative

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 10,000 to 214,000 in the week of December 20, from 224,000 during the week of December 13. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the prior week’s unrevised 217,500.

Federal government employees initially filed 805 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 13, after filing 1091 claims in the week ended December 6.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 to 1.923 million in the week ending December 13, after rising 55,000 to 1.885 million, revised from 1.897 million in the week ending December 6. The four-week moving average was 1.894 million in the week ending December 13, down 5,250 from 1.899 million, revised from 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3% in the week of December 13, up from 1.2% in the week of December 6.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6, from 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Washington (both 2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.10%), California and Rhode Island (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.70%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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251224e1.jpg

- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped in Latest Week

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251224b0.jpg

Mortgage applications dropped 5.0% w/w (+49.8% y/y) in the week of December 19, after a drop of 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.7% w/w (+15.9% y/y) in the latest week, the third consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the December 12 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.6% w/w (+110.1% y/y) in the December 19 week after a decline of 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12. 

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.48% in the week ending December 19 from 6.56% in the week ending December 12. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.86% in the latest week from 5.91% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 8bps to 6.63% in the December 19 week from 6.55% in the December 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 20bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 5.76% in the December 12 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 59.1% of total applications in the December19 week from 59.0% in the week ending December 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the latest week from 7.2% in the December 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+7.8% y/y) to $399,700 in the week ending December 19, following a rise of 1.5% w/w (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% w/w (1.1% y/y) to $428,600 in the latest week, after rising 0.6% w/w (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.9% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $379,700 in the December 19 week, following a rise of 2.3% w/w (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Week of December 19

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Real GDP grew 4.3% (SAAR) during the third quarter following a 3.8% Q2 gain, revised from 3.3% reported initially. These increases followed a minimally revised 0.6% decline in Q1. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.3% compared to 2.1% y/y in Q2 and remained below its most recent high of 3.4% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment surged 7.0% (4.2% y/y) last quarter after edging 0.6% higher in Q2. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 4.2% (9.1% y/y) after improving 0.2% in Q2. Financial sector earnings rose 6.2% (21.1% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q2. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.5% (3.3% y/y) after edging 0.5% higher in Q2. Earnings from abroad jumped 10.6% (26.3% y/y) following a 2.9% Q2  decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 1.59 percentage points to growth last quarter after adding 4.83 percentage points in Q2. Real exports increased 2.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.5% in Q2. Real imports declined 1.2% (-1.8% y/y) after declining 8.3% in Q2. Inventories subtracted 0.22 percentage points from growth after subtracting 3.44 percentage point from Q2 growth.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y) last quartter after rising 2.9% in Q2, revised from 1.6%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% (2.6% y/y) after a 2.5% rise, revised from 1.6%. Durable goods spending rose 1.6% (3.2% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q2. Motor vehicle purchases declined 6.7% (+1.6% y/y) after strengthening 9.7% in Q2. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 4.2% (+0.7% y/y) following a 2.0% fall. Recreational goods & vehicle buying surged 15.7% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after falling 2.5% in Q2.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 3.9% (3.0% y/y) last quarter following 2.2% growth in Q2. Apparel spending strengthened 6.7% (7.0% y/y) following a 5.8% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.0% (1.3% y/y) after edging 0.2% higher. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases improved 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) after falling 2.8% in Q2.



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Real spending on services increased 3.7% (2.4% y/y) in Q3 after a 2.6% Q2 gain. Outlays on housing & utilities edged 0.3% higher (1.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q2. Health care expenditures surged 6.8% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.8% increase. Transportation outlays gained 3.1% both  q/q and y/y after a 7.0% rise, while recreation spending jumped 6.6% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.9% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 1.2% (2.0% y/y) after strengthening 5.9% in Q2. Financial services expenditures rose 2.6% both q/q and y/y following a 4.8% Q2 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 2.8% (3.9% y/y) last  quarter following a 7.3% Q2 rise, revised from 5.7%. Expenditures on structures declined 6.3% both q/q and y/y, after falling for six consecutive quarters. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 5.4% (7.4% y/y), after strengthening 8.5% in Q2. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 8.4% (18.6% y/y), after strengthening 11.7% during Q2. Industrial equipment investment rose 2.0% (3.4% y/y) after a 6.5% rise. Transportation equipment investment fell  2.7% (+3.0% y/y) after strengthening 25.2%. Intellectual property product spending rose 5.4% last quarter (6.4% y/y), after surging 15.0% in Q2.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined 5.1% (-1.8% y/y), the same as in Q2. It was the third consecutive quartly decline.

Government spending rose 2.2% (1.1% y/y) during the third quarter after an unrevised 0.1% easing in Q2. Federal government expenditures rose 2.9% (-1.0% y/y) after falling 5.3% in Q2. National defense expenditures increased 5.8% (1.0% y/y) after rising 0.9% in Q2. State & local government spending rose 1.8% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.1% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose 3.8% (3.0% y/y) last quarter vs. 2.1% in Q2. The PCE chain price index increased 2.8% (2.7% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q2. The business fixed investment price index rose 5.2% (1.5% y/y) in Q3 after a 0.4% decline. The residential price index rose 4.5% (3.3% y/y) last quarter after a 2.2% rise, while the government price index increased 4.4% (3.5% y/y) following a 3.3% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Consumer spending strengthens; growth in business investment decelerates.
- Corporate profit growth led by earnings abroad.
- Rise in chain price index accelerates.


U.S. GDP Growth is Strong in Q3; Profits Jump

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in October but rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 0.1% monthly gains in both months. Manufacturing activity was tepid with manufacturing production falling 0.4% m/m in October and unchanged in November. Manufacturing output has not posted a monthly gain since July. Mining output fell 0.8% m/m in October but rebounded 1.7% m/m in November. Utilities output surged 2.6% m/m in October but fell 0.4% m/m in November. Compared to a year ago, manufacturing production is up 1.9%; mining output is up 3.9%; and utilities output is up 4.8%.

By market group, output of durable consumer goods plunged 2.6% m/m in October and fell another 0.2% in November. Production of durable consumer goods has declined in five of the previous six months. Production of nondurable consumer goods rose 0.5% m/m in both October and November. Compared to a year ago, durable consumer goods production has fallen 5.9% while nondurable consumer goods output has risen 2.7%. Business equipment production fell 0.3% m/m in October but rebounded 0.3% m/m in November and is up 11.2% y/y. Production of nonindustrial supplies fell 0.3% m/m in both October and November.

By industry group, output of durable goods fell 0.5% m/m in October and declined 0.1% m/m in November but were up 3.2% from a year ago. Motor vehicle and parts production slumped 5.1% m/m in October and declined 1.0% m/m in November to be down 5.6% from a year ago. Monthly motor vehicle output has declined in five of the previous six months. In contrast, production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m in October and rose 0.8% m/m in November. Aerospace production continued to rise, increasing 2.0% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to be up 25.2% from a year ago. Output of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November. Their output is up 0.9% from a year ago. Apparel output fell 1.3% m/m in October but recovered in November, rising 2.3% m/m. Food and beverage output rose 0.3% m/m in October and another 1.2% in November.

Output of selected high-technology industries rebounded in October and November. After having declined 1.0% m/m in both August and September, production jumped 1.9% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to stand 11.8% higher than a year ago. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.4% m/m in October and was unchanged in November. It has risen only 1.6% over the past year. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicle production was unchanged in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November; it is up 2.6% y/y.

Total industry capacity utilization edged down to 75.9% in October from 76.0% in September and then recovered the decline in November, edging up to 76.0%. In the manufacturing sector, the utilization rate slumped to 75.4% in October from 75.8% in September and remained at 75.4% in November. The October/November reading is the lowest since January.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Today’s release contained figures for both October and November that had been delayed by the federal government shutdown.
- IP fell in October but recovered in November.
- Manufacturing output was tepid, falling in October and unchanged in November.
- A surge in utilities output in October prevented a larger decline in total production.
- A jump in mining output in November accounted for all of the increase in total production.


U.S. Industrial Production Fell in October and Recovered in November

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New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 2.2% (+4.8% y/y) in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September (previously +0.5% m/m) and a 3.0% monthly jump in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% m/m decline. A 23.7% m/m drop in aircraft orders more than accounted for the overall decline. Orders excluding aircraft increased 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October on top of a 0.5% monthly increase in September.

More generally, transportation orders fell 6.5% m/m (+7.3% y/y) in October following a 0.6% m/m increase in September and an 8.0% monthly jump in August. In addition to the drop in aircraft orders, orders for motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their sixth consecutive monthly increase. Across other sectors, orders for primary metals fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in ten months. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances slumped 1.5% m/m, their first monthly decline in seven months. In contrast, orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Machinery orders increased 0.8% m/m, their eighth consecutive monthly rise. Orders for computers and electronic products increased a solid 1.0% m/m on top of a 1.2% monthly increase in September.

Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They rose 0.7% m/m in October following an upwardly revised 1.2% monthly gain in September (previously +0.9%). The was the second consecutive monthly increase and the fifth in the past six months. The strong end to Q3 and the continued rise in the first month of Q4 provides a solid starting point for all of Q4. The October shipments figure was 5.9% at an annual rate above the Q3 average. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% m/m in October on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m increase in September (previously +0.9%). This was the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Total manufacturing shipments edged up 0.1% m/m (+2.8% y/y) in October after having been essentially unchanged in September. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.6% m/m (5.9% y/y), led by 1.4% monthly jump in transportation shipments. However, apart from a 0.1% m/m decline in shipments of other durable goods, all of the other major sectors posted monthly gains in October. In contrast, shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.4% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly decline. The monthly decline was led by a 2.4% m/m fall in shipments of petroleum and coal products although it was relatively widely spread across major sectors. The one exception was a 2.1% m/m increase in leather product shipments, but this came after four consecutive sizeable monthly declines.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.2% m/m (7.9% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly gain following a 0.8% m/m rise in September and a 0.7% m/m increase in August. Total factory inventories were unchanged in October (+1.4% y/y) following 0.1% monthly declines in both August and September. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% m/m in October while inventories of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- New orders for durable goods slumped 2.2% m/m in October following increases in both August and September
- A 24% monthly drop in aircraft orders drove the overall decline
- Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% m/m in October
- Core capital goods shipments and orders continued to rise in October with small upward revisions to September


Economy in Brief: 2005

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Weekly Chain Store Sales Fell

Industrial Production Fell

NAHB Housing Market Index Recovered

Housing Starts Rebounded

PPI Gains Broad

PPI Gains Broad

China' Trade in Goods: Changes in Direction

Empire State Index Negative