Economy in Brief

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 58.4 in October from September's 60.4. It was the third consecutive monthly decline and left the index below its December peak of 67.8. The Action Economics Forecast [...]

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 227,000 (2.0% y/y) during October following a 218,000 September rise, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for a 185,000 gain in the Action [...]

The employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (2.8% y/y) in the third quarter of 2018, up from a 0.6% q/q rise in the second. Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.7% q/q increase. Employment costs in the [...]

Consumer confidence during October improved to the highest level since September 2000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 1.9% (9.3% y/y) to 137.9 from 135.3 in September, initially reported as 138.4. The October [...]

Japan's trade deficit widened in September. This makes three deficits in a row and four deficits in the past five months. Japan's trade situation is not helping to support domestic growth. Exports are up by 1.2% over 12 months and are [...]

Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index rose to 29.4 during October and recovered most of its September decline. Nevertheless, the index has moved [...]

Even Japan’s three-month growth rate series shows exceptionally choppy retail sales performance (see Chart). Year-over-year sales creep higher. Six-month trends show robust gains. The truth of trend lies buried somewhere in these very [...]