Economy in Brief: October 2020

Japan's industrial sector remains on the mend, but its rise in output in August is starkly weaker than in July when it surged. The recovery from the covid-19 episode continues, but it is a recovery that now appears to be more drawn [...]

• Both purchase and refinance applications slip. • Mortgage interest rates fall to record low. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 0.7% (+36.6% y/y) in the week ended October 9 after rising 4.6% in [...]

• Core pricing power remains firm. • Goods price increase picks up. • Services prices remain firm. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4% both m/m and y/y during September following a 0.3% August increase. A 0.2% rise had [...]

• Crude oil prices recover. • Natural gas prices jump. • Gasoline prices hold steady. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.1% last week (-24.4% y/y) to average $40.28 per barrel in the week ended October 9, rebounding [...]

ZEW experts cut their expectations for Germany by 21.3 points in October. They slashed them by 16.9 points in the United States. They lopped 21.8 points off the outlook in Japan. The French outlook is weaker by 22 points in October. [...]

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increases sharply. • Strengthen occurs across the board, including hiring and pricing. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index increased to 104.0 in [...]

• Core goods remain firm. • Services prices are little changed. Retail pricing power weakened further last month. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August rise and a 0.6% gain in [...]

• Recent declines are broad-based. • Crude oil costs rise. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 1.3% during the last four weeks. Despite the decline, [...]