Economy in Brief: January 2017

There is no magic in the OECD leading indicators this month. Yet, there is some positive momentum in play. The OECD likes to look at these indicators compared to six months ago so we provide a view of six-month changes and levels in [...]

Inventories at the wholesale level jumped 1.0% (1.6% y/y) during November following a revised -0.1% dip, initially reported as -0.4%. The advance report indicated a 1.3% November increase. Inventories of durable goods increased 1.0% [...]

Regular gasoline prices of $2.39 per gallon (19.6% y/y) last week edged up from $2.38 per gallon in the prior week. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in these pump prices. Weakness in gasoline [...]

The total job openings rate of 3.7% during November was improved from October's 3.6%, revised from 3.7%. It remained down from the record high of 3.9% in July. The private-sector job openings rate held steady, however, at 3.9%. It was [...]

Japan's consumer confidence, a diffusion measure, rose sharply month-to-month, regaining the ground it lost on the previous month's sharp drop. Despite the jump, there is little lift in the series that lingers below the neutral mark [...]

The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index surged 7.5% during December (11.1% y/y) to 105.8. It was the strongest level of optimism since December 2004. During all of last year, the [...]

Consumer credit outstanding increased $24.5 billion during November (6.7% y/y) following a $16.2 billion October rise, revised from $16.0 billion. An $18.2 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

In the euro area, unemployment which was flat month-on-month in November is nonetheless moving lower on trend as the inflation rate has spiked up, boosted by oil. This combination of motions is surely going to put pressure on the ECB [...]