Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070723a.jpg" width="353">
The number of mass layoff events rose 8.0% during June. The increase reversed al of the prior month&#146;s 6.2% decline, according to BLS data.These specific layoff incidents are called &quot;mass layoffs&quot; because they involve 50 or more initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The June increase only left the number of mass layoff events in the middle of the data&#146;s very recent range, however, there is an upward creep to the number since early last year. Since January &#146;06 mass layoffs are up 16.9% and since last year&#146;s average June layoffs were up 5.8%. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070723b.jpg" width="353">
The increase brought with a 5.0% increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance versus last year&#146;s average.
Most of the creep is due to layoffs in the construction industry which still are running double the monthly low in 2006. That&#146;s after the huge seasonal spikes early this year and last that never seemed to fully unwind in the spring. [Note that all of the data for individual industries are not seasonally adjusted.]
These mass layoff data are contained in Haver&#39;s flagship database, USECON. Data are also available by Census regions, divisions and states, including some industry detail for each. These are all carried in the REGIONAL database.
The Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held June 27-28, 2006 can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20070628.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Mass Layoffs, SA</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June &#145;06</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2006</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Number of Events</td>
<td>1,219</td>
<td>1,182</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,152</td>
<td>1,305</td>
<td>1,323</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims &nbsp; (Number Persons)</td>
<td>127,897</td>
<td>118,414</td>
<td>123,558</td>
<td>121,839</td>
<td>143,402</td>
<td>131,943</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The number of mass layoff events rose 8.0% during June. The increase reversed al of the prior months 6.2% decline, according to BLS data.These specific layoff incidents are called "mass layoffs" because they involve 50 or more [...]

Mass Layoffs Creep Higher

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070719g.jpg" width="353">
May&#39;s &quot;TIC&quot; data from the US Treasury show a substantial increase in net purchases of US securities by foreign investors to a record $163.5 billion. These purchases amounted to $97.4 billion in April and $107.7 billion in May a year ago. This report, published Tuesday morning, also includes an increase in US purchases of foreign securities to $37.3 billion, the third largest monthly amount ever (the two larger were in December 2006 and March 2007). The effects of other financial capital flows, such as the return of capital on asset-backed securities, and other adjustments produced the total &quot;Net TIC Flows&quot; of $105.9 billion. This is the largest since February 2006, but a number of individual months prior to that have been larger; the absolute record is $227.4 billion in January 2006. These amounts basically reflect portfolio investment flows in and out of US markets. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070719h.jpg" width="353">
This month&#39;s record securities purchases were concentrated in corporate instruments; both bonds and stocks experienced record net foreign buying. Bonds saw $72.6 billion, compared with the previous month&#39;s $33.5 billion and the prior record of $62.4 billion last November. Net buying of US equities was $41.8 billion, an unprecedented amount some 53% larger than April&#39;s $27.4 billion and 51% more than the previous record $27.7 billion in February 2000, just before the end of the tech boom.
Net purchases of Treasury securities, which were for many years the basic building block of foreign portfolios, are still sizable at $21.6 billion in May, but noticeably less than the $28 and $29 billion averages for 2005 and 2004, respectively. Buying of GSEs (&quot;Agencies&quot; in the table below) has remained within its recent high range as FNMA and FHLMC have regained some favor with investors; they bought $27.5 billion worth in May, less than April&#39;s record $36.1 billion, but much more than the $18-$19 billion monthly averages in 2004 and 2005.
The changes in portfolio mix seen here -- fewer Treasuries and more Agencies and Corporates -- are reflected in data for individual countries. China was a net seller of Treasuries in April ($941 million) and May ($3.22 billion) while increasing its holdings of Agencies and Corporates. In the last six months, Chinese investors have purchased a total of $76.4 billion of US securities. The single biggest investor country represented in the TIC data is the UK; this most probably reflects the London markets&#39; role as an international financial center, so the ultimate investors could come from almost anywhere. This group purchased a stunning $92.7 billion of US securities in May and sold a record $30.8 billion in foreign securities to US investors. They actually increased their purchases of Treasuries in May, buying $33.3 billion after liquidating $10.7 billion in April. The largest increase in their holdings came in corporate bonds, with net purchases of $45.2 billion; the previous high was $33.5 billion last November.
Finally, as we see in the table, Japanese investors are much less active in US markets now. In May, they purchased just $2.0 billion in US securities and so far in 2007, they have been net sellers of $3.0 billion worth. Their peak activity came in 2004, when they bought just over $20 billion worth a month, about two-thirds of that in Treasuries. As the Japanese economy has emerged from its stagnation, these investors have been more interested in their home market than in ours. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070719i.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070719j.jpg" width="353"> 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Net ForeignPurchases fromUS Residents, Bil $</th>
<th scope="col">May 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2007</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Last 12 Months</td>
<td>2006</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&quot;Headline&quot;:&nbsp; Net Foreign Purchases = 1 + 2</td>
<td>126.1</td>
<td>80.3</td>
<td>81.0</td>
<td>78.2</td>
<td>73.6</td>
<td>69.9</td>
<td>63.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Securities</td>
<td>163.5</td>
<td>97.4</td>
<td>107.7</td>
<td>102.3</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>84.3</td>
<td>76.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Treasuries</td>
<td>21.6</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>15.4</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>28.2</td>
<td>29.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Agencies</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>36.1</td>
<td>36.0</td>
<td>23.1</td>
<td>24.1</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>18.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Corporate Bonds</td>
<td>72.6</td>
<td>33.5</td>
<td>42.3</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>41.7</td>
<td>31.0</td>
<td>25.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Equities</td>
<td>41.9</td>
<td>27.4</td>
<td>14.0</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Securities&nbsp;</td>
<td>-37.3</td>
<td>-17.1</td>
<td>-26.7</td>
<td>-24.1</td>
<td>-20.9</td>
<td>-14.4</td>
<td>-12.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Foreign Acquisition</td>
<td>112.6</td>
<td>72.6</td>
<td>71.8</td>
<td>64.5</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>58.3</td>
<td>60.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total TIC Flows&nbsp; </td>
<td>105.9</td>
<td>97.8</td>
<td>105.1</td>
<td>68.6</td>
<td>87.4</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>81.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">Select Countries Net Purchases of US Securities</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">China</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Japan</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>20.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">United Kingdom</td>
<td>92.8</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>42.1</td>
<td>46.0</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>30.3</td>
<td>21.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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May's "TIC" data from the US Treasury show a substantial increase in net purchases of US securities by foreign investors to a record $163.5 billion. These purchases amounted to $97.4 billion in April and $107.7 billion in May a year [...]

Treasury TIC Data: Record Purchases of US Securities; Country Mix Highlights Rising China, Diminishing Japan

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718h.jpg" width="353">
In a marked shift, UK employment surged 63,000 in the 3 months centered on April, a second successive gain, as the March period saw 31,000 more employed. From three months ago (the style of comparison that the UK&#39;s Office for National Statistics [ONS] generally emphasizes) the latest figure was 93,000 higher. Notable as well, full-time employment gained 117,000 from 3 months back, while part-time work decreased 25,000.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718i.jpg" width="353">
Unemployment, measured by the ILO definition, is down 34,000 from 3 months ago, a 2% decline. The unemployment rate consequently dipped to 5.4% from the 5.5% that has prevailed most of the last year. The more widely followed unemployment gauge in the UK, the &quot;claimant count rate&quot;, is showing further declines: a single monthly figure, it stood at 2.7% in May and June, the lowest since September 2005 and down from a recent peak of 3.0% last October. The number of claimants in June was 864,100, down almost 10% from their peak of 956,700 last September.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718j.jpg" width="353">
We last considered these data two months ago, and we noted then that job vacancies had risen, suggesting that the employment environment might do better, as it in fact has. At that time, vacancies were up 20,000 from 3 months previous, reaching 647,400 in April. This figure has been revised down slightly to 644,100, and in May and June vacancies increased another 6,000 to 650,100. The recent gains, albeit small, were in transportation and communications, and finance and business services.
So we are enthusiastic about the employment increase in the UK, believing it is a sign of economic health. Press reports, however, highlight the push some economists and journalists think it portends for inflation and interest rates. This may eventually occur, although accompanying wage data indicate that cost pressures remain moderate. The key average earnings index had a 3.5% &quot;headline rate&quot; for the 3 months ended May, down from 3.6% excluding bonuses in February and 4.6% including bonuses. It may be, then, that causation is running the other way: perhaps because wages remain moderate, businesses have increased their hiring. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UK Labor Force Survey &amp; Related Labor Data</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 2007</th>
<th scope="col">May 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment* &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, Thous)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>29075</td>
<td>29012</td>
<td>28,895</td>
<td>28,960</td>
<td>28,730</td>
<td>28,465</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chg from 1 &amp; 3 Months Ago</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>63/93</td>
<td>31/-10</td>
<td>+15&nbsp;(MoAvg)0.6% y/y</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate* &nbsp;(3Mo Avg, SA, %)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count &nbsp; (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>864.1</td>
<td>877.9</td>
<td>889.7</td>
<td>905.7</td>
<td>947.1</td>
<td>944.7</td>
<td>861.7</td>
<td>853.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count Rate (SA, %)</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Vacancies (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>650.1</td>
<td>631.8</td>
<td>644.1</td>
<td>643.7</td>
<td>593.7</td>
<td>594.6</td>
<td>617.0</td>
<td>629.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In a marked shift, UK employment surged 63,000 in the 3 months centered on April, a second successive gain, as the March period saw 31,000 more employed. From three months ago (the style of comparison that the UK's Office for National [...]

Employment Rises Sharply in UK, Unemployment Down

Robert Brusca

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718g.jpg" width="353">
Italy&#146;s trade balance trend is slipping, too. 
Imports outpaced exports in May. Exports fell faster than imports of the past three months. Over six and 12-months goods exports have grown faster than goods imports. For services imports are consistently far faster-growing. 
The composition of trade flows shows that exports of transportation equipment (Y/Y) have slowed sharply in May. Capital goods exports have slowed sharply as well. Consumer goods exports also have slowed. On the import side, food and consumer goods imports slowed in May. Capital goods imports are holding up. Imports of other goods have slowed. 
There is little in these trends to raise any concerns. At the same time there is some evidence of slowing. Europe currently has a truly strong exchange rate from the euro to the pound sterling. This sort of currency strength can be expected to take some toll on growth. Italy&#146;s export flows include goods that are exported both within as well call as outside of the EMU community. So we do not get a clear reading from these data on the impact of the FX rate. But slowing export flows would result if the euro rose too high; at some point even Italian exports kept within the community would suffer as an export slowdown for EMU as a whole would also slow domestically generated growth too. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Italy&#39;s Trade Trends
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>Apr-07</td>
<td>Mar-07</td>
<td>3-MO</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account Bal</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (3,560)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (2,774)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (3,299)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (3,211)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (2,950)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (3,197)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Goods Balance</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (139)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; 589</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; 215</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; 222</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; 336</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (316)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>-15.4%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services Balance</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (429)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (1,107)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (222)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (586)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (426)</td>
<td>&#128;&#128; (405)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
<td>15.3%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>-8.7%</td>
<td>15.9%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>31.5%</td>
<td>20.3%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Not Seasonally Adjusted</td>
<td colspan="6">All Yr/Yr</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>Apr-07</td>
<td>Mar-07</td>
<td>Feb-07</td>
<td>Jan-07</td>
<td>Dec-06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>18.6%</td>
<td>15.8%</td>
<td>17.3%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
<td>13.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Transport</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>22.6%</td>
<td>25.8%</td>
<td>27.0%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>14.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Other Goods</td>
<td>21.2%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>34.5%</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>Apr-07</td>
<td>Mar-07</td>
<td>Feb-07</td>
<td>Jan-07</td>
<td>Dec-06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>14.4%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>13.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Transport</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>13.2%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Other Goods</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="7">Balances in Mil of Euros</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Italys trade balance trend is slipping, too. Imports outpaced exports in May. Exports fell faster than imports of the past three months. Over six and 12-months goods exports have grown faster than goods imports. For services imports [...]

Italy’s Exports and Imports Slow, but Exports Still Exceed

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718e.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications rose 1.9% last week following a 1.1% gain the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Higher applications to refinance led the increase in the total with a 4.9% increase after three consecutive down weeks.
Purchase applications fell 1.6% after the prior week&#146;s 3.8% increase.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718f.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell slightly to 6.93% from 6.96% the prior week. Rates averaged 6.84% last month, up from 6.28% in December. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. Rates for 15-year financing similarly fell to 6.63% last week. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-fareast-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;
mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 and 35 top lenders in the U.S. housing industry. Then it derives its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">07/13/07 </th>
<th scope="col">07/06/07 </th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y </th>
<th scope="col">2006 </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index </td>
<td>631.6</td>
<td>626.2 </td>
<td>16.8% </td>
<td>584.2 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase </td>
<td>446.5 </td>
<td>4523.9 </td>
<td>12.0% </td>
<td>406.9 </td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing </td>
<td>1,717.4 </td>
<td>1,636.9 </td>
<td>24.7% </td>
<td>1,634.0 </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The total number of mortgage applications rose 1.9% last week following a 1.1% gain the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Higher applications to refinance led the increase in the total with a 4.9% increase [...]

Mortgage Applications Up Slightly

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Housing starts rose 2.3% during June to 1.467M and slightly beat Consensus expectations for 1.45M starts. The increase did little to dampen this year&#146;s pace of 20%+ y/y declines.
The increase in June starts was all in multi-family structures. These rose 12.5% to 316,000 but essentially have been moving sideways.
Single-family starts slipped 0.2% to 1.15M, down for the third month in a row.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070718d.jpg" width="353">
By region, single-family housing starts in the South fell a hard 4.6% (-27.2% y/y). Single-family starts in the Northeast rose 0.9% (19.6% y/y) and starts in the Midwest rose 3.1% (-21.7% y/y). Out West starts recovered 6.7% (-20.3% y/y). 
Today&#146;s testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2007/july/testimony.htm">here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,467</td>
<td>1,434</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>1,819</td>
<td>2,073</td>
<td>1,950</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,151</td>
<td>1,153</td>
<td>-21.6%</td>
<td>1,478</td>
<td>1,719</td>
<td>1,604</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>316</td>
<td>281</td>
<td>-9.7%</td>
<td>341</td>
<td>354</td>
<td>345</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,596</td>
<td>1,513</td>
<td>-24.3%</td>
<td>1,834</td>
<td>2,159</td>
<td>2,058</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Housing starts rose 2.3% during June to 1.467M and slightly beat Consensus expectations for 1.45M starts. The increase did little to dampen this years pace of 20%+ y/y declines. The increase in June starts was all in multi-family [...]

Total Housing Starts Uptick All Multi-Family, Single-Family Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070717j.jpg" width="353">
The Industry index from METI is in a sharp decline and is lower over six months for a period of three months running. Services (the tertiary index) tend to be more stable. Their index has slowed in the past few months and even fell in May but it is growing at pace just below 2%.
The tertiary and industry index are still relatively strong in their five year context. Fixing them in the range of values they have experienced over the past five years we find that the tertiary index is in its 95Th percentile (top 5-percent). The Industrial gauge is a bit lower but resides in the 84th percentile about the top 15 percentile of its range. The percentile standing of the MFG sector is higher than we get from other surveys of Japan (NTC has the MFG sector in the bottom 30 percent of its five year range). Japan remains unconcerned about this weakness and the BoJ continues to talk of when it will go back to hiking rates. Onew BOJ board member thinks they should already have hiked them again.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
 Key Japanese Sector Surveys
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Raw readings of each survey</td>
<td colspan="2">Percent of 5Yr range*</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Business Activity (METI:Indexes)</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>Apr-07</td>
<td>Mar-07</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>Apr-07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Industry</td>
<td>107.1</td>
<td>107.4</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>84.9%</td>
<td>86.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Tertiary (Services)</td>
<td>110.2</td>
<td>110.3</td>
<td>108.6</td>
<td>95.1%</td>
<td>96.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">*100 is high; Zero is low</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
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The Industry index from METI is in a sharp decline and is lower over six months for a period of three months running. Services (the tertiary index) tend to be more stable. Their index has slowed in the past few months and even fell in [...]

METI Sector Surveys Show Some Weakness in May

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

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Tian Yong Woon

This week, we review key developments across several Asian economies as the year nears its close. On balance, many of investors’ and policymakers’ worst fears did not materialize. Despite US tariffs, regional exports have shown resilience (chart 1), partly supported by stronger intra-Asia trade, even as exports to the US declined in some cases.

In China, factors including importer front-loading, stronger exports to non-US markets, and government efforts to boost consumption—albeit with potentially one-off effects—have kept the economy on track to meet its 5% growth target this year (chart 2), barring a substantial slowdown in Q4. In Japan, political uncertainty has eased following Prime Minister Takaichi’s rise, though her pro-growth, pro-loose monetary stance has contributed to further yen weakness (chart 3). India, while still likely Asia’s fastest-growing major economy this year, has seen trade setbacks (chart 4) as US–India discussions continue, though recent progress suggests a deal may be near.

However, not all developments in Asia have avoided worst-case outcomes. For example, the Philippines, which has already been hit by a string of storms this year, continues to reel from the effects of Typhoons Fung-wong and Kalmaegi. These storms have highlighted corruption in the Philippines’ flood control systems, rattling investors and pressuring the peso (chart 5), in a manner reminiscent of the rupiah’s decline during Indonesia’s political turmoil earlier this year. In Thailand, political uncertainty continues ahead of general elections eyed at next March, while the expected full return of Chinese tourists has yet to materialize (chart 6).

**Trade in Asia**
For Asia, the year has ultimately not played out as bleakly as investors once feared, particularly on the trade front. Despite US President Trump’s tariffs and a persistent backdrop of uncertainty, export performance in several Asian economies has proven more resilient than expected. This is most clearly reflected in export growth readings for China and key Southeast Asian economies (chart 1), which have remained firm—and at times exceeded expectations—even as China’s shipments to the US fell sharply. Much of this resilience reflects a redirection of exports toward other markets, often within the region. India, however, has seen more limited gains, with exports in US dollar terms struggling to materially surpass last year’s levels.

251110T1.jpg

**China**
Among the main investor concerns earlier this year was China, which once again came under close scrutiny as President Trump sought to address issues ranging from the large US–China trade imbalance to intensifying AI competition and perceived overcapacity. Yet China’s growth—particularly on the export front—has proven more resilient than expected, with increased shipments to other markets more than offsetting reduced trade with the US. Earlier front-loading by importers ahead of anticipated tariff hikes also temporarily supported export figures. Domestically, government initiatives to stimulate consumption led to a brief lift in retail spending, though signs suggest these effects may be fading, indicating their largely one-off nature. Even so, China has maintained year-to-date growth above its 5% annual target (chart 2), keeping that goal within reach provided momentum does not weaken significantly in Q4. Meanwhile, the more conciliatory tone in recent US–China discussions, including the halving of US fentanyl-related tariffs, offers a modest further relief. That said, longer-term structural issues still loom, including the difficult shift toward a more consumption-led economy, demographic pressures, and questions around sustained overcapacity in key industries.

251110T2.jpg

**Japan**
In Japan, the political uncertainty that followed the Liberal Democratic Party’s weak election performances earlier in the year has largely eased with Takaichi’s appointment as the country’s first female Prime Minister. Attention now turns to her supplementary budget—reported to be around $65 billion—which aims to address the rising cost of living while also bolstering defence and diplomatic capabilities. Investors, however, are already contemplating the policy implications. In particular, expectations that Takaichi’s agenda could make it harder for the Bank of Japan to pursue further significant tightening have added renewed pressure on the yen, pushing it to multi-year lows (chart 3). And while a weaker yen could, in theory, support tourism, forthcoming measures to curb overtourism—such as Kyoto’s planned 900% increase in accommodation taxes—may act as offsetting factors.

251110T3.jpg

**India**
Turning to India, the economy remains on track to be the region’s fastest-growing major economy. Growth forecasts were downgraded earlier in the year by the IMF and Blue Chip survey panellists, but these revisions were later reversed. These early-year downgrades reflected India’s heavy exposure to US trade, a concern that materialized when the US raised its reciprocal tariff rate on India from 25% to 50%. This contrasts with the situation of many other Asian economies, who successfully negotiated lower rates below the “Liberation Day” baseline. Although India managed to expand exports to other trading partners, this gain resulted in only a muted net impact on overall exports and, in turn, GDP growth. That said, US–India discussions have made some progress over the year, particularly on previously contentious issues such as India’s purchases of Russian crude. While these developments bring India closer to a potential trade deal, the benefits are likely to materialize beyond this year, meaning current growth readings still largely reflect the impact of the steep US tariffs in place today.

251110T4.jpg

**The Philippines**
Moving to the Philippines, the country is grappling with the impact of Typhoon Fung-wong, which struck the northern regions on Sunday, forcing over a million people to evacuate and causing widespread landslides and damaged roads. Fung-wong follows a string of storms this year, including Typhoon Kalmaegi, which also inflicted substantial damage just a few days ago. The disasters have reignited concerns over longstanding corruption in the country’s flood control systems, spooking investors and prompting capital outflows, which have weighed on the Philippine peso (chart 5). The currency’s weakness has been compounded by the central bank’s ongoing easing, which has cut the policy rate from last year’s peak of 6.5% to 4.75%—nearly 200 basis points—and with markets still pricing in further cuts.

251110T5.jpg

**Thailand**
Lastly, Thailand’s economy continues to struggle to regain the footing it had before the pandemic, weighed down by both domestic and external factors. Politically, the country remains in a transitional phase, with new Prime Minister Anutin under scrutiny to deliver on his pledge to hold general elections soon. Deputy Prime Minister indications suggest March 29, 2026 as a likely date, leaving a period of uncertainty in the meantime, as the durability of policies enacted during this interim phase remains unclear. Externally, tourism—which should have been a key growth driver—has underperformed, as the return of Chinese visitors to pre-pandemic levels did not materialize, partly due to tourism-related scares. In contrast, Vietnam appears to have captured a larger share of Chinese tourists this year (chart 6).

251110T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: As the Dust Settles

251107F5.jpg

251107G5.jpg

Consumer credit outstanding increased $13.1 billion (2.3% y/y) in September after rising $3.1 billion in August, revised from $0.4 billion, and $17.7 billion in July, revised from $18.1 billion. A $10.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $11.4 billion (2.1% y/y) in September after increasing $9.2 billion in August, revised from $6.3 billion, and increasing $6.7 billion in July, revised from $6.9 billion. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions declined 6.8% y/y in September after falling 7.4% y/y in August. Finance company debt holdings fell 1.5% y/y after declining 1.3%, while credit union holdings rose an increased 12.8% y/y in September, the quickest growth since in two years. Nonrevolving debt of the federal government rose 3.6% y/y in September, the same as in August.

In September, revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, rose $1.7 billion (2.6% y/y) after falling $6.1 billion in August, revised from a $6.0 billion decline, and rising $11.0 billion in July, revised from $11.2 billion. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions fell 3.0% y/y. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell a steady 14.7% y/y in September, while credit union debt rose 4.5% y/y in September, up from 3.7% y/y in August.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**AI and the Economy** is the title of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson and it can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20251107a.htm).

251107H5.jpg

251107I5.jpg

- Notable gain in credit usage follows prior month’s slowdown.
- Nonrevolving credit usage strengthens and revolving turns positive.

U.S. Consumer Credit Strengthens in September

251107A2.jpg

251107D2.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 0.1% during the four weeks ended November 7, 2025 after improving 0.3% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 0.5% y/y following a 0.8% y/y gain at the end of October.

Prices in the **Textile** group increased 2.5% during the last four weeks and rose 3.3% y/y. The cost of burlap increased 23.8% in the last four weeks while surging 48.1% over the last year. Showing modest improvement, cotton prices rose 0.9% in four weeks but declined 5.6% y/y.

**Metals** group prices increased 1.5% (5.9% y/y) in the last four weeks as the cost of aluminum rose 4.9	% (10.3% y/y). Zinc prices moved up 3.6% (5.4% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 1.4% (-5.9% y/y). Lead prices increased 1.1% (-0.2% y/y) in four weeks and the cost of copper scrap rose 0.6% (13.9% y/y). Working lower, tin prices declined 2.2% (+13.8% y/y) in four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** group prices weakened 2.9% in the last four weeks and were off 1.0% y/y, as framing lumber prices fell 11.3% (-4.3% y/y). The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, declined 9.0% (+10.5% y/y) in four weeks. Offsetting this weakness, natural rubber prices rose 2.0% in four weeks, but were off 6.6% y/y.

Prices in the **crude oil & benzene** group declined 1.6% (-10.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.2% in four weeks to $60.31 per barrel and declined 15.6% y/y. The price was increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month. The price of the petro-chemical benzene fell 3.8% (-23.2% y/y) in four weeks.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index was unchanged (+1.5% y/y) over the last four weeks after rising 0.5% during the prior four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

251107C2.jpg

251107B2.jpg

- Textile and metals prices strengthen.
- Framing lumber costs plummet.
- Crude oil prices weaken.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Moves Sideways in Latest Four Weeks

251107E.jpg

The chart provides a good overview for German trade trend. The table breaks trade trends down by categories and provides growth rates on shorter horizons of 3 months, 6 months and 12 months. But the chart depicts the overarching trends well. It shows the German surplus being diminished on a gradual path and not altogether in a clear monotonic fashion. Export and import lines on the chart move mostly sideways (horizontal). The export line is below the import line since late last year. These two series plots on the right-hand scale and they depict growth rates (year-over-year). So sideways movements mean roughly steady growth. Exports have been growth steadily year-over-year at a weak pace that on occasion has been a decline in terms of their year-on-year value. Generally, the green line is in positive territory. The red import line has been stronger, indicating somewhat better, steadier import growth over the period.

While exports had a good September, export growth sequenced from 12-months to 6-months, to 3-months has been weakening. Imports also put in a strong September but are showing some erosion from 12-month to 6-months to 3-months in terms of annualized rates of growth. Still, import growth rates remain quite strong and consistent; the sense of erosion is clear but also moderate – it’s a moderate erosion in progress for imports.

Capital goods exports from Germany are improving- this observation is based on lagged data with a one-month lag built in. But consumer goods and vehicle exports are slowing and rather sharply- likely as a result of U.S. tariffs.

Import side trends, with the same lag, are not as clear cut. Capital goods imports are growing, and motor vehicle imports are improving and accelerating. Consumer goods imports have erratically slowed.

Real exports and imports on sequential lagged data show exports contracting on most horizons while imports generate consistent positive growth in real terms. There is a big difference in these two trends expressed in real terms.

On balance, German trade trends are shifting. The trade balance is gradually eroding. Change is in play.

251107.jpg

Germany

German Trade Surplus Shrinks Despite Strong Exports

Andrew Cates

**The global growth cycle**
The new orders-to-inventory spread in the global manufacturing PMI is often been viewed as one of the most reliable forward-looking indicators of the global economic cycle. When new orders are rising relative to inventories, it typically signals that demand is firming, production pipelines are beginning to refill, and industrial momentum is building. Conversely, when inventories accumulate faster than orders, it often foreshadows a slowdown. As the chart shows, this spread has been holding up relatively well in recent months, suggesting that despite ongoing headwinds—US tariff policies, uneven global demand, and geopolitical uncertainty—the underlying pulse of global manufacturing remains resilient.

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**US credit standards**
The latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) from the Federal Reserve suggests that credit conditions remain tight but are no longer worsening, marking a tentative stabilization after several quarters of tightening. Banks reported modest easing in standards for some categories of corporate and commercial real estate loans, though mortgage lending remains constrained. Demand for business credit continues to soften, reflecting both higher borrowing costs and a cautious corporate outlook. Historically, periods of widespread tightening—like those seen in 2008 and 2020—have coincided with sharp rises in the private sector savings balance (a proxy for deleveraging), as firms and households retrench simultaneously. The current configuration, shown in the chart, indicates lingering deleveraging pressures, but not a collapse in credit availability.

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**China**
Moving to China, the latest official and Caixin PMI releases for October painted a mixed picture of activity. Both manufacturing indices softened, suggesting that the industrial rebound which underpinned much of China’s recent growth may be losing some traction. The official non-manufacturing PMI, by contrast, edged higher, hinting at continued resilience in construction and public-sector-linked services, while the Caixin services measure—which tends to reflect smaller, private-sector firms—slipped modestly. The divergence underscores China’s two-speed recovery: industrial production and exports have carried the economy, while household spending and smaller enterprises remain subdued. If manufacturing momentum fades in the coming months, the economy could face a renewed loss of balance, with fewer reliable growth engines. Still, overall performance this year has surpassed expectations, and the government’s 5% growth target remains within reach, provided activity holds steady through year-end. Looking ahead, marginal policy support and improved external sentiment—helped by selective tariff relief from the US—could offer limited, though welcome, cushioning.

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**Australia** 
In Australia, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its November meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid a still-complex inflation and growth backdrop. The case for further easing has become less compelling as core inflation (trimmed mean CPI) remains above target and labour market conditions—while gradually softening—continue to show resilience. The unemployment rate has edged higher but remains low by historical standards, consistent with lingering wage and services price pressures. Recent data also hint at a tentative pickup in activity, supported by strong population growth and stabilising commodity exports. Against that backdrop, the RBA has stressed that the path for policy remains finely balanced, with a strong focus on incoming inflation data and global financial conditions. While downside risks persist—particularly from China’s slowdown and weak global trade—the persistence of domestic price pressures means the bar for renewed rate cuts remains relatively high.

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**Argentina**
Turning to Argentina, markets continue to digest the implications of President Milei’s midterm election victory amid deepening economic and financial imbalances. The peso’s broad nominal effective exchange rate has remained under heavy pressure, extending its long-running slide as investors weigh the challenges of implementing fiscal consolidation and monetary reform in a fragile political and social environment. In stark contrast, the Buenos Aires stock index has surged to record highs, reflecting optimism that Milei’s reformist agenda—anchored in deregulation, privatisation, and fiscal restraint—may eventually stabilise the economy and attract renewed capital inflows. The divergence between a falling currency and soaring equity prices highlights the tension between near-term macro risks and longer-term reform hopes. Going forward, investor confidence will hinge on the government’s ability to deliver credible policy execution while managing the inflationary fallout from ongoing peso weakness.

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**Global CO2 emissions**
Shifting focus to more structural issues, the chart underscores how decarbonisation challenges remain deeply concentrated in a few heavy-emitting sectors. Energy production alone accounts for nearly 40% of global CO₂ emissions, with manufacturing, households, and transport together contributing another 50%. This composition highlights the complex trade-offs of the energy transition: the very sectors that underpin modern living standards—power generation, industrial output, mobility, and housing—are also those most difficult to decarbonise. Climate change is therefore not just an environmental issue but a structural economic one, shaping investment, infrastructure, and pricing systems for decades to come. The tension between sustaining growth and cutting emissions will remain a defining challenge for policymakers, particularly as clean technologies face constraints in scaling fast enough to offset rising global demand for energy-intensive goods and services.

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Recent financial market developments have been shaped by a renewed bout of volatility, with heightened concerns about stretched AI valuations triggering a big correction across parts of the tech sector. This comes against a backdrop of lingering uncertainty in Washington, where the US government shutdown has continued to delay the release of several key economic reports, clouding visibility on near-term momentum. Still, the broader macro signals offer a mixed but nuanced picture. Global manufacturing PMIs have continued to hold up, hinting that underlying industrial momentum remains resilient (chart 1). The latest US Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a stabilisation in credit conditions—banks remain cautious, but the most intense phase of tightening may have now passed (chart 2). In China, the October PMIs reflected renewed softness in manufacturing alongside a still-steady services sector, tentatively suggesting that growth may be rebalancing, albeit at a weaker aggregate pace of growth (chart 3). Australia’s inflation and labour market data, meanwhile, have complicated the case for near-term policy easing, with the RBA opting to stay on hold this week as core inflation remain sticky. In Argentina, currency weakness persists even as equity markets rally, highlighting the policy and market tension surrounding President Milei’s reform agenda (chart 5). And finally, at a more structural level, latest global emissions data serve as a reminder that energy, manufacturing, transport, and households remain the principal sources of CO₂—illustrating how the climate and energy transition will continue to shape the macro landscape well beyond the current economic cycle (chart 6).

Economy in Brief: 2007

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Mass Layoffs Creep Higher

Mass Layoffs Creep Higher

Treasury TIC Data: Record Purchases of US Securities; Country Mix Highlights Rising China, Diminishing Japan

Employment Rises Sharply in UK, Unemployment Down

Italy’s Exports and Imports Slow, but Exports Still Exceed

Mortgage Applications Up Slightly

Total Housing Starts Uptick All Multi-Family, Single-Family Down

METI Sector Surveys Show Some Weakness in May